# Week 15 CFB -- Which AP Top Ten team(s) will lose? **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [December 1, 2013, 6:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/week-15-cfb-which-ap-top-ten-team-s-will-lose/675225 "2013-12-01T18:53:44Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [December 8, 2013, 4:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/week-15-cfb-which-ap-top-ten-team-s-will-lose/675225/21 "2013-12-08T04:48:31Z")
Oh shit! Are the Seminoles gonna get to play Auburn??? SWEET!!! ---
**Author:** ![Wolverine](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/ba9def/32.png) [@Wolverine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wolverine)\ **Post date:** [December 8, 2013, 4:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/week-15-cfb-which-ap-top-ten-team-s-will-lose/675225/22 "2013-12-08T04:58:26Z")
While I’m not thrilled Michigan State won the Big Ten, I’m very happy Ohio State lost and will not go to the BCS Championship Game. ---
**Author:** ![armedmonkey](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/d6d6ee/32.png) [@armedmonkey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/armedmonkey)\ **Post date:** [December 8, 2013, 5:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/week-15-cfb-which-ap-top-ten-team-s-will-lose/675225/23 "2013-12-08T05:12:45Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > Oh shit! Are the Seminoles gonna get to play Auburn??? SWEET!!! Bring it on, baby! War Goddamn Eagle! ---
**Author:** ![Zeldar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/b77776/32.png) [@Zeldar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeldar)\ **Post date:** [December 8, 2013, 5:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/week-15-cfb-which-ap-top-ten-team-s-will-lose/675225/24 "2013-12-08T05:20:18Z")
The results: ```auto No. 17 Oklahoma 33, No. 6 Oklahoma State 24 No. 9 Baylor 30, No. 25 Texas 10 No. 3 Auburn 59, No. 5 Missouri 42 No. 7 Stanford 38, No. 11 Arizona State 14 No. 1 Florida State 45, No. 20 Duke 7 No. 10 Michigan State 34, No. 2 Ohio State 24 ``` ```auto ====================================================================== Ohio St. Missouri Oklahoma St. ================================ armedmonkey 2/2 Ohio St. Missouri tonyfop 2/3 Ohio St. Missouri USCDiver 2/3 Ohio St. Missouri Zeldar 2/3 Ohio St. Missouri Duckster 1/2 Ohio St. furt 1/2 Ohio St. Labrador Deceiver 1/2 Ohio St. RetroVertigo 1/2 Ohio St. DMC 1/3 Oklahoma St. Folacin 1/3 Ohio St. LuckyNumber85 1/3 Ohio St. Nauplius 1/3 Missouri Snowboarder Bo 1/3 Missouri Wolverine 1/3 Oklahoma St. zamboniracer 1/3 Missouri Oakminster 1/4 Missouri Oredigger77 1/4 Oklahoma St. Procrustus 0/1 Death of Rats 0/2 Zakalwe 0/(3) ======================== ===================================== 20 21/54 10 8 3 21/54 ====================================================================== ``` ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [December 8, 2013, 5:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/week-15-cfb-which-ap-top-ten-team-s-will-lose/675225/25 "2013-12-08T05:45:17Z")
> [@armedmonkey](#): > > Bring it on, baby! > > War Goddamn Eagle! Honestly, Auburn is the one team I think has a shot at beating FSU. Fortunately, the game isn’t for another month, and by then the tremendous momentum that Auburn has built up will have abated and FSU will have been focused on this one game for a month, with the travails of the past month or so behind them. FSU by 12, behind a 340-yard passing game from Heisman winner Jameis Winston. ---
**Author:** ![jsc1953](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5daacb/32.png) [@jsc1953](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jsc1953)\ **Post date:** [December 8, 2013, 7:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/week-15-cfb-which-ap-top-ten-team-s-will-lose/675225/26 "2013-12-08T07:06:55Z")
The SEC’s reign of terror will continue. Auburn looks absolutely unstoppable. FSU hasn’t played anybody. You have no idea how much it pains me to say that. ---
**Author:** ![armedmonkey](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/d6d6ee/32.png) [@armedmonkey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/armedmonkey)\ **Post date:** [December 8, 2013, 7:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/week-15-cfb-which-ap-top-ten-team-s-will-lose/675225/27 "2013-12-08T07:32:08Z")
What follows is the end of season results. A couple of weeks ago I promised to buy the winner a prize. I’m going to renege on that promise because, well, I didn’t expect to win. And certainly not by this much: 2013 SEASON FINAL TOTALS. Cumulative scoring. 1pt awarded for each correct pick. 1/2 pt deducted for each incorrect pick. 10.0 pts: **armedmonkey** 9.5 pts: \<\<\\>\> 9.0 pts:\<\<\\>\> 8.5 pts:\<\<\\>\> 8.0 pts: \<\<\\>\> 7.5 pts: \<\<\\>\> 7 pts: \<\<\\>\> 6.5 pts: Zeldar 6 pts: Oakminster 5.5 pts: Snowboarder Bo, 5 pts: Death of Rats, Wolverine 4.5 pts: Munch, R.P. Murphy 4 pts: astorian 3.5 pts: Oredigger77 3 ps: Labrador Deceiver, Sterling Archer, Zakalwe 2.5 pts markdash 2 pts: bump,yellowjacketcoder, willia4 1.5 pts: Duckster, jsc1953, LuckyNumber85, RetroVertigo, Rucksinator, tonfop, USCDiver, 1 pt: BigAppleBucky, Chargerrich, Fred Garvin, janeslogin, Jimmy Chitwood, Omar Little, Rex Goliath, Rudiger Simpson, The Universe Lashes Out, zoog 0.5 pt: lieu, nate, Really Not All That Bright, tonyfop 0 pts: Accidental Martyr, basset hound, furt, Johnny Bravo, NicorGasMan, racer72, skammer, Tazmanian Devil, -0.5 pts: Folacin, Naupilus, Prorustus, Quintas, zamboniracer -1 pts: DMC, BobLibDem -1.5 pts: DMC ---
**Author:** ![armedmonkey](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/d6d6ee/32.png) [@armedmonkey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/armedmonkey)\ **Post date:** [December 8, 2013, 7:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/week-15-cfb-which-ap-top-ten-team-s-will-lose/675225/28 "2013-12-08T07:44:00Z")
Err, crap, I may have gotten some of the lower scoring posters wrong ( **DMC** is in there twice). Anybody and everybody is welcome to check my math and make corrections. ---
**Author:** ![Zeldar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/b77776/32.png) [@Zeldar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeldar)\ **Post date:** [December 8, 2013, 8:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/week-15-cfb-which-ap-top-ten-team-s-will-lose/675225/29 "2013-12-08T08:04:26Z")
> [@armedmonkey](#): > > What follows is the end of season results. A couple of weeks ago I promised to buy the winner a prize. I’m going to renege on that promise because, well, I didn’t expect to win. And certainly not by this Your prize has already been given to you. The Good Guys are headed to The Ship, thanks to tOSU and the Gods of Justice and Karma. War Eagle and Happy New Year! ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [December 8, 2013, 8:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/week-15-cfb-which-ap-top-ten-team-s-will-lose/675225/30 "2013-12-08T20:56:59Z")
> [@Zeldar](#): > > Your prize has already been given to you. The Good Guys are headed to The Ship, thanks to tOSU and the Gods of Justice and Karma. > > War Eagle and Happy New Year! I’m not sure how a school that literally bribed their way to a championship a few years ago can be the Good Guys. ---
**Author:** ![Zeldar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/b77776/32.png) [@Zeldar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeldar)\ **Post date:** [December 9, 2013, 6:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/week-15-cfb-which-ap-top-ten-team-s-will-lose/675225/31 "2013-12-09T06:28:51Z")
> [@Martin\_Hyde](#): > > I’m not sure how a school that literally bribed their way to a championship a few years ago can be the Good Guys. Okay. Tell us what you know about this literal bribery situation. ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [December 9, 2013, 3:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/week-15-cfb-which-ap-top-ten-team-s-will-lose/675225/32 "2013-12-09T15:28:30Z")
> [@Zeldar](#): > > Okay. Tell us what you know about this literal bribery situation. No, don’t think so. You’re obviously an Auburn fan so I’m not debating it with you, anymore than I’d discuss with OJ his progress in finding the real killer. Most college football fans can’t see past their own bias, since I went to West Point I have the benefit of having no stake at all in major college football so I don’t tend to engage in arguments with the biased fans of the major programs. ---
**Author:** ![armedmonkey](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/d6d6ee/32.png) [@armedmonkey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/armedmonkey)\ **Post date:** [December 9, 2013, 3:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/week-15-cfb-which-ap-top-ten-team-s-will-lose/675225/33 "2013-12-09T15:30:29Z")
And yet you feel the need to threadshit. Classy. ---
**Author:** ![Idle\_Thoughts](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/838e76/32.png) [@Idle\_Thoughts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Idle_Thoughts)\ **Post date:** [December 9, 2013, 3:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/week-15-cfb-which-ap-top-ten-team-s-will-lose/675225/34 "2013-12-09T15:38:43Z")
> [@Martin\_Hyde](#): > > No, don’t think so. You’re obviously an Auburn fan so I’m not debating it with you, anymore than I’d discuss with OJ his progress in finding the real killer. Most college football fans can’t see past their own bias, since I went to West Point I have the benefit of having no stake at all in major college football so I don’t tend to engage in arguments with the biased fans of the major programs. Let’s take any thoughts or opinions you have on this subject to another thread (a new one if you wish to discuss or debate it). ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [December 9, 2013, 3:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/week-15-cfb-which-ap-top-ten-team-s-will-lose/675225/35 "2013-12-09T15:57:18Z")
> [@armedmonkey](#): > > And yet you feel the need to threadshit. Classy. I’m not the one who called Auburn “The Good Guys.” If the thread was solely about what AP Top Ten Team would lose or had lost I wouldn’t have said a word. I’m not sure in what world people get to voice their opinions and it’s threadshitting if you contradict them. > [@Idle\_Thoughts](#): > > Let’s take any thoughts or opinions you have on this subject to another thread (a new one if you wish to discuss or debate it). I had no interest in opening wider debate, I said all I needed to in my single post. Someone voiced an opinion about a team, I voiced mine. I see no need for new threads or any further discussion on it, here or elsewhere. ---
**Author:** ![Zakalwe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zakalwe/32/270_2.png) [@Zakalwe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zakalwe)\ **Post date:** [December 9, 2013, 4:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/week-15-cfb-which-ap-top-ten-team-s-will-lose/675225/36 "2013-12-09T16:13:44Z")
Okay…getting back (sort of) on topic. I have discovered that I have a superpower. I can make teams win. Crazy huh? It breaks down into two categories, one infallible and one just influential. Here’s how it works: 1. Zeldar starts a thread saying “which of these teams will lose”? 2. If any of those two teams are playing each other, I will pick one to lose. 3. That team will win! (This is infallible\*) 4. If one of those teams is playing and I _don’t_ pick them to lose, but comment on how inevitable their win is, they will lose. (This is influential, but not infallible - sometimes they win in spite of my power) “So, **Zakalwe** , how do you intend to use this awesome power?”, you ask. And the answer, of course, is that intend to use it to make money! So, here’s the offer: 1. Pick a Bowl Game (BCS Championship is ineligible for this offer). 2. Tell me who you want to win. 3. Make me an offer - if the offer is high enough, done. If not, I will seek counter-bids and give you a chance to outbid (auction). 4. **Zeldar** , this is where you come in - for 20% of the proceeds, you start a poll thread for the selected game. 5. I’ll pick a team/comment as appropriate. 6. My awesome power kicks in and your team wins! 7. Everyone is happy except the cheapo fans of the losing team - but that’s okay, they had their shot at getting me on their side, so tough. Now, SDMB, I recognize your role in the implementation of my power, so I’ll spend at least 10% of the total net earning on stuff (merchandise, gifted memberships, custom titles, etc). **armedmonkey** , you get one pick at half-price for pointing out my awesome power to me. Everybody understand? Okay, let the bidding begin! - By infallible, I mean that I pretty much suck at picking teams apparently. The Universe is inscrutable in its majesty and I offer no guarantee that this will work at all. You’re probably just throwing your money away (but I’ll appreciate it - really) and I have in no way any actual obligation to you to actually impact the outcome of any game. ---
**Author:** ![Zeldar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/b77776/32.png) [@Zeldar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeldar)\ **Post date:** [December 9, 2013, 4:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/week-15-cfb-which-ap-top-ten-team-s-will-lose/675225/37 "2013-12-09T16:34:51Z")
**Zakalwe** , that’s an amzing network of subterfuge and chicanery! I wish you luck! I’m not quite clear on what thread (or threads) or poll(s) you want me to start. **Oakminster** usually gets a Yahoo! Pick’em going for the bowls at this point in the year. I have been trying to figure a way to continue the “Who Will Lose?” game, but all I can think of is a slate of Underdogs (as dictated by something like Sagarin ratings) that we’ll be picking to WIN or at least UPSET the higher rated teams. I need input before starting such a thing. A poll of that sort will contain 35 teams to select. A righteous list! Maybe split it into Before New Year and After New Year’s Eve? Anybody? ---
**Author:** ![armedmonkey](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/d6d6ee/32.png) [@armedmonkey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/armedmonkey)\ **Post date:** [December 9, 2013, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/week-15-cfb-which-ap-top-ten-team-s-will-lose/675225/38 "2013-12-09T16:40:33Z")
> [@Zeldar](#): > > I need input before starting such a thing. A poll of that sort will contain 35 teams to select. A righteous list! Maybe split it into Before New Year and After New Year’s Eve? > > Anybody? You could do one with just the BCS bowls, which would be a very manageable 10 teams. Shoot, you wouldn’t have to change anything from how you have already been doing it except the title. ---
**Author:** ![Zakalwe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zakalwe/32/270_2.png) [@Zakalwe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zakalwe)\ **Post date:** [December 9, 2013, 4:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/week-15-cfb-which-ap-top-ten-team-s-will-lose/675225/39 "2013-12-09T16:45:12Z")
> [@Zeldar](#): > > **Zakalwe** , that’s an amzing network of subterfuge and chicanery! I wish you luck! > > I’m not quite clear on what thread (or threads) or poll(s) you want me to start. > > **Oakminster** usually gets a Yahoo! Pick’em going for the bowls at this point in the year. > > I have been trying to figure a way to continue the “Who Will Lose?” game, but all I can think of is a slate of Underdogs (as dictated by something like Sagarin ratings) that we’ll be picking to WIN or at least UPSET the higher rated teams. > > I need input before starting such a thing. A poll of that sort will contain 35 teams to select. A righteous list! Maybe split it into Before New Year and After New Year’s Eve? > > Anybody? I haven’t tested my power with an **Oakminster** thread, so I think we should stick with you. It’ll be game specific for bowls that we get subscribers to. So, “CFB - Who will lose the Toilet Bowl?”, then “Who will lose the Mixing Bowl?”. Only two teams in each one - that minimizes (but apparently doesn’t eliminate) the chance that I’ll eff up. If you want to do losers, I would do a “Which favored team will lose?”. That better matches the spirit behind the Top10 polls. I would use the composite Vegas lines. 35 does seem like a lot though, maybe just two parts? If you go through 12/30 that’s 18 games with 17 left for the second poll. ---
**Author:** ![Zeldar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/b77776/32.png) [@Zeldar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeldar)\ **Post date:** [December 9, 2013, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/week-15-cfb-which-ap-top-ten-team-s-will-lose/675225/40 "2013-12-09T17:47:14Z")
> [@armedmonkey](#): > > You could do one with just the BCS bowls, which would be a very manageable 10 teams. Shoot, you wouldn’t have to change anything from how you have already been doing it except the title. > [@Zakalwe](#): > > If you want to do losers, I would do a “Which favored team will lose?”. That better matches the spirit behind the Top10 polls. I would use the composite Vegas lines. 35 does seem like a lot though, maybe just two parts? If you go through 12/30 that’s 18 games with 17 left for the second poll. The BCS approach, with all teams listed, looks good for a start. For the non-BCS group maybe two or three sub-sections, with the “Which Favored Team(s) Will Lose?” format in each thread/poll ought to be manageable. We could use the calendar to pick those sub-groups (early, late, and whatever) so that each group has a reasonable number of teams to consider. That will drag the fun out longer, too. 🙂 I prefer the Sagarin rankings as a basis for “favored” since he doesn’t adjust them as the odds change. I have practically no experience with Vegas lines and such. Other ideas? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/week-15-cfb-which-ap-top-ten-team-s-will-lose/675225.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/week-15-cfb-which-ap-top-ten-team-s-will-lose/675225.md?page=3)