# Welcome to the Second Cold War. **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [September 1, 2003, 7:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/welcome-to-the-second-cold-war/199008 "2003-09-01T19:57:44Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 14\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![El\_Mariachi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/71c47a/32.png) [@El\_Mariachi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/El_Mariachi)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2003, 7:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/welcome-to-the-second-cold-war/199008/1 "2003-09-01T19:57:44Z")
[http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=514&e=7&u=/ap/20030901/ap\_on\_re\_as/china\_military\_030901105817](http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=514&e=7&u=/ap/20030901/ap_on_re_as/china_military_030901105817) > [@](#): > > Chinese military planners consider the United States to be their biggest threat, and have spent years trying to refocus their forces to keep up with American advances in modern warfare. > Beijing has spent billions of dollars in recent years upgrading its arsenal with Russian-made fighter jets, submarines and other weapons. China’s reported military budget rose by nearly 10 percent this year to $22.4 billion, though analysts say the total figure could be five times that. > The Chinese military also has shifted strategy to dovetail with its highest priority — uniting the island of Taiwan with the mainland. > The strategy moves away from the notion of sending waves of troops across the Taiwan strait. Instead, China is believed to be focusing on the prospect of an air and sea blockade and the use of high-tech missiles and even computer viruses to cripple its rival’s economy. I’m sure we’ve all seen this coming for quite some time. Its just a kick in the pants… just… scary to know that this is happening all over again. ---
**Author:** ![mascaroni](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/dc4da7/32.png) [@mascaroni](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mascaroni)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2003, 11:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/welcome-to-the-second-cold-war/199008/2 "2003-09-01T23:18:01Z")
“Beijing has spent billions of dollars in recent years upgrading its arsenal with Russian-made fighter jets” I think that says it all… ---
**Author:** ![Speaker\_for\_the\_Dead](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c77e96/32.png) [@Speaker\_for\_the\_Dead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Speaker_for_the_Dead)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2003, 3:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/welcome-to-the-second-cold-war/199008/3 "2003-09-02T03:00:45Z")
Until China starts making large numbers of ICBMs and nuclear warheads, I don’t think we can call it a “cold war.” The fear of Communism (which IMO has abated) that was a signature of Cold War I would have some serious rekindling to do before you could see anything like what I’ve heard CWI was like. ---
**Author:** ![SPOOFE](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c5a1d2/32.png) [@SPOOFE](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SPOOFE)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2003, 4:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/welcome-to-the-second-cold-war/199008/4 "2003-09-02T04:35:03Z")
I’d call it more of a “Cold Spat”. Sure, it’s a tense relationship, but nowhere near the level of the REAL Cold War. It’s more like the relationship between Dennis the Menace and Mr. Wilson. ---
**Author:** ![dropzone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dropzone/32/7515_2.png) [@dropzone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dropzone)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2003, 4:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/welcome-to-the-second-cold-war/199008/5 "2003-09-02T16:42:40Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by mascaroni \* > \*\*“Beijing has spent billions of dollars in recent years upgrading its arsenal with Russian-made fighter jets” > > I think that says it all… \*\* Joke as you might, the Russians make a damned fine fighter at a reasonable price. But what is the fatal attraction of Taiwan? Beijing could spend the money and political capital they waste on the fantasy of reuiniting with Taiwan building their own export industries and in a few years nobody would remember Taiwan exists. A few years after that, when the economy of the People’s Republic of China is exploding and the last of the first generation Republic of China people die, and there could even be a Taiwanese movement toward reunification without force. ---
**Author:** ![mascaroni](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/dc4da7/32.png) [@mascaroni](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mascaroni)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2003, 7:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/welcome-to-the-second-cold-war/199008/6 "2003-09-02T19:35:57Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by dropzone \* > \*\*Joke as you might, the Russians make a damned fine fighter at a reasonable price… \*\* The Czechs make damned fine cars at a reasonable price… Skodas. Not Cadillacs… IMHO, technology-wise, the US is years ahead of China and will be for the forseeable future. ---
**Author:** ![Roger\_Mexico](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f6c823/32.png) [@Roger\_Mexico](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Roger_Mexico)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2003, 9:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/welcome-to-the-second-cold-war/199008/7 "2003-09-02T21:17:23Z")
Have you read the products recalls on the Consumer Product Safety COmmission website? Time and again, there is some toy being recalled because small parts can break off, posing a choking hazard to small children. And where are these cheap toys made? China! I think China is waging a covert war to murder our children. But I could be wrong. ---
**Author:** ![Ptahlis](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/a8b319/32.png) [@Ptahlis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ptahlis)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2003, 2:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/welcome-to-the-second-cold-war/199008/8 "2003-09-03T02:35:49Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by dropzone \* > \*\*But what is the fatal attraction of Taiwan? Beijing could spend the money and political capital they waste on the fantasy of reuiniting with Taiwan building their own export industries and in a few years nobody would remember Taiwan exists. \*\* A guy I knew went on a student trip to China some 3 or 4 years ago. The Chinese people he met didn’t harbor much ill-will at all to Americans, but on the subject of Taiwan they asked “Why won’t America let Taiwan come home?” They believed that we were basically preventing the Taiwanese people from a much wished-for reunion through a puppet government in control of their country. If China really makes a move to retake Taiwan, I hope it’s lightning quick and executed with overwhelming force. I certainly don’t want Taiwan to fall under the Chinese yoke, but I honestly think that there’s nothing we could do to prevent it should China make the attempt. The most we could do is engage in a long, bloody war with major casualties that we would end up losing. The logistical inequities alone would be impossible to overcome. We’d be fighting about as far from home as you can get while they fought in their back yard. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2003, 3:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/welcome-to-the-second-cold-war/199008/9 "2003-09-03T03:21:18Z")
Trade is the key. There wasn’t much trade between the US and USSR in the real Cold War. With economic ties between the US and China being what they are, I think the risk of war is extremely small. And that goes for an invasion of Taiwan as well. ---
**Author:** ![Boo\_Boo\_Foo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e274bd/32.png) [@Boo\_Boo\_Foo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boo_Boo_Foo)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2003, 3:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/welcome-to-the-second-cold-war/199008/10 "2003-09-03T03:37:11Z")
Human beings are a bloody dumb bunch aren’t we? What we need are regular attacks by aliens to remind us occasionally that our differences are far smaller than our similiarities. Oh well - enough of the fantasising. On a serious tone, I think China is quite remarkable really - when you consider the size of her population, just how little crap is exported from the country. No terrorists, no world wide drug exportation, that sort of thing. The best and smartest thing the USA could do is to enter into thoroughly rewarding reciprocal trade agreements with China. The more contact the better. Same with Russia as well. ---
**Author:** ![dropzone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dropzone/32/7515_2.png) [@dropzone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dropzone)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2003, 3:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/welcome-to-the-second-cold-war/199008/11 "2003-09-03T03:55:53Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by mascaroni \* > \*\*IMHO, technology-wise, the US is years ahead of China and will be for the forseeable future. \*\* Ah, but it seems to be an HO not based in fact, to wit: [http://www.geocities.com/fighterjetsontheweb/su27.html](http://www.geocities.com/fighterjetsontheweb/su27.html) : “The Su-27 is a big long-range air superiority fighter, comparable to the U.S. F-15 but superior in many respects.” [http://www.geocities.com/fighterjetsontheweb/mig29.html](http://www.geocities.com/fighterjetsontheweb/mig29.html) “The Mig29 is one of the first Russian aircraft that was considered by many to be an equal to those in the west.” It would be unwise to assume that our experiences with Iraqi and Libyan pilots gives any indication of the potential of the best Russian fighters in the hands of excellent pilots. Then there is the little matter of location. As Ptahlis said, they’d be in their own backyard with many airbases in easy reach of the fight. ---
**Author:** ![Brutus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/91b2a8/32.png) [@Brutus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Brutus)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2003, 4:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/welcome-to-the-second-cold-war/199008/12 "2003-09-03T04:54:45Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by dropzone \* > \*\*Ah, but it seems to be an HO not based in fact, to wit: > > [http://www.geocities.com/fighterjetsontheweb/su27.html](http://www.geocities.com/fighterjetsontheweb/su27.html) : > > “The Su-27 is a big long-range air superiority fighter, comparable to the U.S. F-15 but superior in many respects.” > > [http://www.geocities.com/fighterjetsontheweb/mig29.html](http://www.geocities.com/fighterjetsontheweb/mig29.html) > > “The Mig29 is one of the first Russian aircraft that was considered by many to be an equal to those in the west.” > > It would be unwise to assume that our experiences with Iraqi and Libyan pilots gives any indication of the potential of the best Russian fighters in the hands of excellent pilots. Then there is the little matter of location. As Ptahlis said, they’d be in their own backyard with many airbases in easy reach of the fight. \*\* Not to diss the tech of my slavic cousins over in Russia, but no, the Su-27 is not ‘superior to the F-15’ in any practical aspect. Certainly it is inferior to the F-22 in all aspects. The Mig-29 is without a confirmed air-air kill, while quite a number of them have been dropped by American aircraft (over Serbia and Iraq). Not that it matters, since it is pilot quality that would determine the outcome, and Communist China simply doesn’t train it’s pilots to our standards. In a dictatorship, the primary function of the armed forces is political stability, not actual combat effectiveness. Effective training and tactics requires giving the armed forces a certain measure of freedom, which a dictorship can’t allow. And if they stop being a dictatorship, I doubt we need to worry about them (militarily). 'Sides, the Chinese don’t have any Mig-29’s, do they? I thought they had some Su-27’s, and a horde of 60’s designs, J-6s and J-7s. ---
**Author:** ![lokij](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/5e9695/32.png) [@lokij](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lokij)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2003, 5:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/welcome-to-the-second-cold-war/199008/13 "2003-09-03T05:02:40Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by dropzone \* > \*\*Ah, but it seems to be an HO not based in fact, to wit: > > “The Su-27 is a big long-range air superiority fighter, comparable to the U.S. F-15 but superior in many respects.” > “The Mig29 is one of the first Russian aircraft that was considered by many to be an equal to those in the west.” > > It would be unwise to assume that our experiences with Iraqi and Libyan pilots gives any indication of the potential of the best Russian fighters in the hands of excellent pilots. Then there is the little matter of location. As Ptahlis said, they’d be in their own backyard with many airbases in easy reach of the fight. \*\* I thought we were discussing CHINESE technology. I’m sure they can buy all the Russian 3rd generation fighters they want (Russia needs the cash afterall), it won’t change the fact that they’ll be hopelessly outmatched by the upcoming 4th and 5th generation US fighters such as the F-22 and the JSF. Then factor in their training and maintenance standards, plus information gathering and networking. What’s their heavy airlift and in flight refueling capability? How well does the chinese GPS compare to ours (oops, they don’t have one)? We won’t even get into our lead in UCAV technology, if you give the US another 10 to 20 years it’s highly likely we won’t even have pilots in most of our combat aircraft. China is playing catchup in a big big way and any talk about a ‘cold war’ is fantasy. If we stood STILL they’d have decades to go. ---
**Author:** ![mascaroni](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/dc4da7/32.png) [@mascaroni](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mascaroni)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2003, 5:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/welcome-to-the-second-cold-war/199008/14 "2003-09-03T17:59:48Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by dropzone \* > \*\*Ah, but it seems to be an HO not based in fact, to wit: > > [http://www.geocities.com/fighterjetsontheweb/su27.html](http://www.geocities.com/fighterjetsontheweb/su27.html) : > > “The Su-27 is a big long-range air superiority fighter, comparable to the U.S. F-15 but superior in many respects.” > > [http://www.geocities.com/fighterjetsontheweb/mig29.html](http://www.geocities.com/fighterjetsontheweb/mig29.html) > > “The Mig29 is one of the first Russian aircraft that was considered by many to be an equal to those in the west.” > > It would be unwise to assume that our experiences with Iraqi and Libyan pilots gives any indication of the potential of the best Russian fighters in the hands of excellent pilots. Then there is the little matter of location. As Ptahlis said, they’d be in their own backyard with many airbases in easy reach of the fight. \*\* OK… The Skoda quip was a bad analogy… but fighter planes alone don’t win a war. I don’t know the full extent of American and Chinese cutting edge defence technology, but looking at other areas gives a clue. IMHO, for almost the whole of the Cold War/Detente the US was streets ahead of the USSR and it was that superiority, both military and economic that caused the USSR’s downfall.