Not is so many words, no. It does credit some successes, and suggests that further “democratization” of the region may help to alleviate many of the underlying grievances jihadists exploit to recruit from restive populations.
But all-in-all, I smell a lot of “if/but/maybe.”
Recall, though, that GW never promised swift results; IIRC, he used words like “long term,” patience," “resolve,” etc., etc. In that context, this NIE is partial vindication of his position, even if other parts don’t paint so rosy a picture (not that the few “positive” bits are all that rosy to begin with!).
Regardless of any particular person’s position on TWAT, there’s few honest people who would deny that changing the hearts and minds of millions of disgruntled Muslims is something that’d take place quickly.
There’s also few who’d deny that jumping feet-first into the middle of the shit storm like we did in Iraq wasn’t very helpful, either.
If he did, it slipped under my radar; I seem to remember a “it’s going to be a long haul over a rough road” kinda speech from GW not too long after 9/11, WRT going after the Taliban, Al Quaeda, and TWAT in general. That’s what’s generally stuck in my mind since.
But, now that you mention it and I wring some neurons, yeah, I think that certain admin. officials did try to portray an “optimistic” appraisal of operations in Iraq shortly after they commenced.
In fact, I think I inhaled the better part of a can of Coke upon hearing it.
I doubt GW ever had a serious understanding of the difficulties that the war in Iraq would engender; I believe he was just parroting Rummy’s position papers and official findings reports, and can’t man up to back away from them now (after throwing all of his confidence and support behind Rummy for so long).
On several occassions, Cheney made comments like, “We’ve broken the back of the insurgency.” and other such statements leading people to believe (why, I don’t know) that things were getting better in Iraq.
I keep waiting to hear someone say, “I’ve been authorized to say that the war may actually be within measurable distance of the end.”
