# We're in the home stretch: Election predictions **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 13, 2004, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032 "2004-10-13T16:49:13Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 11
**Author:** ![Loopydude](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e56c9b/32.png) [@Loopydude](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loopydude)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2004, 6:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032/201 "2004-10-25T18:47:26Z")
I’m bracing for a rough Nov. 3rd. By now if there was going to be a clear winner, we would have seen it reflected in the polls. I don’t know about the popular vote percentages (why bother with them, since they don’t matter?), but going by the Electoral College, this remains a statistical dead-heat. Key states like Florida are still completely up in the air. Since we’re looking at an election at least as close as 2000, and nothing substantive has changed in the realm of election reforms, my prediction is another long legal battle, with a possible SCOTUS Bush re-appointment, based on another 5-4 majority along party lines. If there were a God, I would pray to he/she/it that I’m totally wrong. ---
**Author:** ![braintree](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/8e7dd6/32.png) [@braintree](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/braintree)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2004, 8:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032/202 "2004-10-25T20:29:57Z")
> [@Loopydude](#): > > From your name, is it safe to assume you’d find that a _good_ omen? 😉 The best omen would have been for Houston to have won the NL Pennant and then for the Sox to have crushed them in four games with permanent injuries to their best players. Did I mention that I don’t like George Bush? ---
**Author:** ![Patty\_O\_Furniture](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/96bed5/32.png) [@Patty\_O\_Furniture](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Patty_O_Furniture)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2004, 2:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032/203 "2004-10-26T02:05:17Z")
Just for good measure: > [@](#): > > Originally predicted by Dick Cheney: > > Bush 52% > Kerry 47% ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2004, 2:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032/204 "2004-10-26T02:18:02Z")
Here’s what I think the polls are lacking. Here’s a [Republican that’s voting for Kerry.](http://www.sierratimes.com/04/10/20/carlworden.htm) > [@](#): > > I am now a man without a political party. I will never again register as a Republican unless the party returns to what it was before the fascists took it over. I’m certainly not a Democrat or a liberal, but I might just register as a Democrat to help them avoid mistakes in the next primary, like running another John Kerry for president. Any moderate, pro-gun southern Democrat would have easily swept Bush aside this election. > [@](#): > > My decision to vote for Kerry was a vote to get Bush and his administration out. I could have voted for a third party candidate who couldn’t possibly win, but that would have translated into a vote for Bush, and I just couldn’t do that. Too many kids in uniform have already been killed and maimed for nothing, and I see it as my primary duty to save as many of them as I can. If my vote for a third party candidate means Bush wins and more kids come home dead and mutilated, then I have abrogated my duty as an American, as a Christian and as a decent human being. I didn’t know better during the Vietnam War, when I voted for Nixon twice, but I would be without excuse if I did it again now. > [@](#): > > This time, a huge number of former Bush Republicans like me have bolted to Kerry. Unless a large number of former Gore supporters are going to vote for Bush this time, I don’t see how Bush can get re-elected. Add to that the massive numbers of young voters who are registered to vote for the first time under threat of a draft, and I see Bush being shown the door by more than a close vote I think there are a lot of folks like Mr. Worden here who feel betrayed by Mr. Bush and would just as soon tolerate four years of Kerry if it means purging the neocons from the Republican Party. This is what the polls aren’t showing. I dare say that there are many many more Bush 2000 voters voting for Kerry than Gore 2000 voters voting for Bush. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2004, 11:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032/205 "2004-10-26T11:42:07Z")
There’s a certain element of that. I was just thinking this weekend that I know five or six people who’ve told me ‘I voted for Bush last time but won’t this time.’ and I know NO one who said the opposite. ---
**Author:** ![Mal\_Adroit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/df788c/32.png) [@Mal\_Adroit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mal_Adroit)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2004, 12:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032/206 "2004-10-26T12:14:08Z")
> [@Jonathan Chance](#): > > I know five or six people who’ve told me ‘I voted for Bush last time but won’t this time.’ and I know NO one who said the opposite. Me neither. But voting for Gore this time would be almost stupid. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![bup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6bbea6/32.png) [@bup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bup)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2004, 2:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032/207 "2004-10-26T14:54:53Z")
I’ve heard that too, and read a great op-ed piece in Sunday’s Chicago Tribune by Steve Chapman that made the point very well, and yet you see the polls. I’m not getting this whole thing. Things aren’t adding up. I think there are people who voted for Gore who are now voting for Bush who just aren’t vocal about it. They’re voting out of fear, I guess, and their instinct that Bush is better against terrorism. I don’t get that, personally, based on Bush’ track record, but the country as a whole sees Bush as better on terror. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2004, 4:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032/208 "2004-10-26T16:00:04Z")
> [@Jonathan Chance](#): > > There’s a certain element of that. > > I was just thinking this weekend that I know five or six people who’ve told me ‘I voted for Bush last time but won’t this time.’ and I know NO one who said the opposite. I know several personally. And then there’s Zell Miller. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2004, 4:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032/209 "2004-10-26T16:37:18Z")
> [@Moody Bastard](#): > > Me neither. But voting for Gore this time would be almost stupid. Don’t discount the vindication factor, or “Win one for Al!”. I have actually seen a bumper sticker reading “It’s about elections. Vote for Gore.” It was on a car that also had one reading “If you’re not completely appalled, you haven’t been paying attention.” ---
**Author:** ![rfgdxm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c0e974/32.png) [@rfgdxm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rfgdxm)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2004, 5:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032/210 "2004-10-26T17:22:25Z")
> [@bup](#): > > I think there are people who voted for Gore who are now voting for Bush who just aren’t vocal about it. They’re voting out of fear, I guess, and their instinct that Bush is better against terrorism. I don’t get that, personally, based on Bush’ track record, but the country as a whole sees Bush as better on terror. If Bush had been good on fighting terrorism, then I would have expected that those terrorists wouldn’t have destroyed the WTC and flew into the Pentagon on 9/11. Bush would have implemented policies before that happened to stop them. Bush’s record on stopping terrorists has been less than stellar. ---
**Author:** ![pkbites](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pkbites/32/204_2.png) [@pkbites](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pkbites)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2004, 5:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032/211 "2004-10-26T17:42:58Z")
I predict Bush wins via Electoral but not popular votes. In fact, I think he’ll get less than 48% of the popular vote. I am voting for Bush by the way. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2004, 5:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032/212 "2004-10-26T17:48:42Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > It was on a car that also had one reading “If you’re not completely appalled, you haven’t been paying attention.” I keep meaning to get one that says, “If you’re still outraged, you’ve not been paying attention for very long.” Daniel ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2004, 7:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032/213 "2004-10-26T19:43:27Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > I know several personally. > > And then there’s Zell Miller. 😃 Really? I’d be curious to hear about them. I now live in the midst of blazing red country in rural Ohio and the number of Kerry signs far outnumber the other side. Of those who have expressed a switch from Bush I count… 1. A 50 year old female editor 2. A 40 year old male Army Reservist 3. A 26 year old male construction worker ---
**Author:** ![Airblairxxx](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Airblairxxx](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airblairxxx)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2004, 8:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032/214 "2004-10-26T20:15:15Z")
Let’s remember the plural of “anecdote” is not “data”. Myself, I’m wondering if the Al Qa Qaa story is going to have some serious legs. It has survived the first attempts to debunk it (it has its own thread) and speaks to a weakness of GWB’s: that he lacks good judgement and has made serious blunders in his two wars. Plus, I can’t help but notice the story popped on a Monday, eight days before the election. This is probably the absolute worst time for Dubya for a story like this to come out; there’s no burying this on a Friday afternoon, giving the spinmeisters all weekend to ruminate on how to work this. One must wonder if certain . . . factions opposed to Dubya (like intelligence officers?) massaged this to wreak maximum havoc with BC04. (It must be said that I can’t see exactly how this could have happened; I don’t see their fingerprints on the sources of info used in the original New York Times story.) And speaking of stories that popped yesterday, I’m totally befuddled by [this story](http://online.wsj.com/article_email/0,,SB109866031609354178-IdjgYNhlaR3n52paIKIaKmGm4,00.html) that appeared yesterday in the pro-Bush _Wall Street Journal_ (registration may be required). It’s about the missed opportunities to take out Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi in the months leading up to the Iraq war. It doesn’t contain any new information that I can see, and the only thing that could have prompted it is the increasing violence wrought by Zarqawi’s followers in the Iraqi insurgency. If either of these stories start to gain some traction this week, I have to think that Bush is in serious trouble. I stand by my original prediction, made (I think) earlier in this thread: Kerry by 8 in the popular vote, and he’ll take 300 electoral votes. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2004, 12:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032/215 "2004-10-27T00:14:53Z")
By eight. As in 54-46? Oofah. ---
**Author:** ![Airblairxxx](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Airblairxxx](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airblairxxx)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2004, 12:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032/216 "2004-10-27T00:32:54Z")
> [@Jonathan Chance](#): > > By eight. > > As in 54-46? > > Oofah. Yep. I said on the first page of this thread: Kerry by eight. 53-45-2. (Of course, I also said 290 EVs, whereas earlier today I said 300. I’ll stick with what I said today.) (Of course, I also said, and I quote: “Ah, fuck it, somebody’s gotta be the crazy one.”) ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2004, 3:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032/217 "2004-10-27T03:01:08Z")
Nice to see it doesn’t have to be me! Thanks for taking one for the team, buddy. I’ll get the ice pack ready. ---
**Author:** ![jshore](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/b5e925/32.png) [@jshore](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jshore)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2004, 3:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032/218 "2004-10-27T03:07:54Z")
> [@Airblairxxx](#): > > And speaking of stories that popped yesterday, I’m totally befuddled by [this story](http://online.wsj.com/article_email/0,,SB109866031609354178-IdjgYNhlaR3n52paIKIaKmGm4,00.html) that appeared yesterday in the pro-Bush _Wall Street Journal_ (registration may be required). Well, you gotta give the WSJ a certain amount of credit…They may be right-wing nutjobs on their editorial page, but (unlike, say, the Washington Times) they seem to have a very good wall between that and their news journalism side, which has actually broken quite a few stories unfavorable to Bush, I believe. ---
**Author:** ![pantom](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/34f0e0/32.png) [@pantom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pantom)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2004, 3:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032/219 "2004-10-27T03:31:15Z")
Very funny one by David Brooks today in the NY Times on how to look like an expert on the election: [Thus Ate Zarathustra](http://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/26/opinion/26brooks.html?oref=login) ---
**Author:** ![AHunter3](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ahunter3/32/368_2.png) [@AHunter3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AHunter3)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 4:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032/220 "2004-10-29T04:36:24Z")
Am I a total weenie for only daring to make marginally substantive predictions this late in the game? I think Kerry is going to win by an electoral vote margin larger than any single contestable state. More specifically, I think he is going to receive the most votes in Ohio and in Florida. His odds are not as good on getting Florida, but his odds of still winning the election without Florida are quite good anyhow. (See [electoral-vote.com](http://electoral-vote.com) map for 10/28/04 — without needing Florida, Kerry wins the election if he wins in Hawaii and Iowa (or New Mexico and Iowa) while retaining his lead in the states marked in blue on this date; or Michigan alone will do. Bush, on the other hand, has a more difficult time of it without Ohio in his basket. He could clean up by claiming Michigan but I’ll bravely go out on a limb and say it simply ain’t gonna happen. More believably he could capture Colorado but it sure isn’t the Republican easy pickins we all thought it would be, not according to several recent polls; then add Iowa to that, and not lose any of the red states on this date’s map, including Hawaii. I’ll bravely go out on another limb and say Bush just plain old isn’t going to carry Hawaii. That leaves Bush with 266 electoral votes after obtaining Iowa and Colorado. I’d say he’s more likely to snag Wisconsin or Minnesota than to retain Hawaii or to win in Michigan. Bush could of course win in Ohio but I don’t think he will win there and also in Florida. At his point I expect him to lose both states and that, as they say, is all she wrote. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032.md?page=10) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032.md?page=12)