# We're in the home stretch: Election predictions **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 13, 2004, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032 "2004-10-13T16:49:13Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 14
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2004, 12:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032/261 "2004-10-31T00:06:18Z")
> [@bup](#): > > I’m predicting a Bush win in the EC with another loss in the popular vote, together with accusations of fraud in several close states, and a continued schism in the country. I predict congress will be called to impeach Bush, but will choose not too based on its Republican majority. And I predict history eventually will rank the various strategies that got Bush in office both times as heinous as Watergate. > > But I’m in a bad mood right now. Other times I believe Kerry may actually win. That pretty much sums up my prediction to a T. Except that **bup** said it first. I feel so derivative. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2004, 2:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032/262 "2004-10-31T02:43:09Z")
> [@Zoe](#): > > My prediction: Kerry will be declared the winner with exactly 270 electoral votes – but even that may take a little while. At that time, Florida will still be undetermined, but Kerry will eventually be awarded Florida’s electoral votes also. Trust me; the Republican Party will see to it that Bush wins Florida, no matter how the people of Florida actually vote. There is no possible way they’d let voters get in the way of that. I’d bet a hundred bucks on Bush taking Florida. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2004, 5:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032/263 "2004-10-31T05:05:45Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > Trust me; the Republican Party will see to it that Bush wins Florida, no matter how the people of Florida actually vote. There is no possible way they’d let voters get in the way of that. I’d bet a hundred bucks on Bush taking Florida. And if he does, that, of course, proves your theory that the Republican party rigged the election there. Right? ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2004, 5:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032/264 "2004-10-31T05:49:25Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > And if he does, that, of course, proves your theory that the Republican party rigged the election there. Right? No, it doesn’t. I’m saying what I think will happen. It would only be PROVEN with objective evidence. ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2004, 5:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032/265 "2004-10-31T05:58:52Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > And if he does, that, of course, proves your theory that the Republican party rigged the election there. Right? It’s a foregone conclusion that the GOP is tampering with the election in Florida. It’s right out in the open, they’re not even trying to be sneaky about it. The question is whether Kerry can still win Florida _in spite_ of the tampering. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2004, 5:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032/266 "2004-10-31T17:48:33Z")
Well, I was just watching Fox and the two folks they just had on said that its going to be a landslide victory…for Kerry. Basically both people said that the new voter turnout is the key. They both claimed that ALL the polls are completely wrong and that Kerry will win in the EC by a landslide. The popular vote should be a comfortable Kerry win. No recount because its going to be too far out to bother with a recount. -XT ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2004, 6:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032/267 "2004-10-31T18:19:07Z")
> [@xtisme](#): > > No recount because its going to be too far out to bother with a recount. What is the sound of 10,000 lawyers with nothing to do? ---
**Author:** ![rfgdxm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c0e974/32.png) [@rfgdxm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rfgdxm)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2004, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032/268 "2004-10-31T19:32:28Z")
> [@xtisme](#): > > Well, I was just watching Fox and the two folks they just had on said that its going to be a landslide victory…for Kerry. Basically both people said that the new voter turnout is the key. They both claimed that ALL the polls are completely wrong and that Kerry will win in the EC by a landslide. The popular vote should be a comfortable Kerry win. No recount because its going to be too far out to bother with a recount. > > -XT None of the polls are sampling young registered voters who say they are likely to vote? I do suspect that there will be an abnormally high number of young people voting this election. The 2000 presidential election was a squeaker, and the polls currently are saying this will be the case in 2004. Thus young people may believe that their vote really will count. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2004, 7:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032/269 "2004-10-31T19:33:06Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > What is the sound of 10,000 lawyers with nothing to do? [sound of ice clinking in 10,000 highball glasses] ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2004, 10:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032/270 "2004-10-31T22:18:22Z")
> [@Diogenes the Cynic](#): > > It’s a foregone conclusion that the GOP is tampering with the election in Florida. It’s right out in the open, they’re not even trying to be sneaky about it. [Hard to argue with that.](http://vote2004.eriposte.com/swingstates/florida.htm#FLORIDA) ---
**Author:** ![DoctorJ](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/doctorj/32/2904_2.png) [@DoctorJ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DoctorJ)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2004, 10:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032/271 "2004-10-31T22:26:50Z")
Just to put the polls in perspective, here’s a little blast from the past, courtesy of Daily Kos : > [@](#): > > BLITZER: And now, let’s take a look at the latest poll numbers. The new CNN/“USA Today” Gallup Tracking Poll results are being released at this hour. It shows George W. Bush with 48 percent, Al Gore 43 percent, Ralph Nader with 4 percent, Pat Buchanan with 1 percent. > > And those numbers are similar to other tracking polls. Take a look: ABC’s poll has Bush at 49 percent, Gore at 45 percent; The Washington Post, Bush at 48 percent, Gore at 46 percent; the NBC-Wall Street Journal tracking poll, Bush at 47 percent, Gore 44 percent. And both the CBS and MSNBC-Reuters-Zogby tracking polls have Bush at 46, Gore at 44 percent. CNN, Monday, November 6, 2000–the day before Al Gore won the popular vote. ---
**Author:** ![Loopydude](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e56c9b/32.png) [@Loopydude](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loopydude)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2004, 10:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032/272 "2004-10-31T22:27:51Z")
> [@xtisme](#): > > Well, I was just watching Fox and the two folks they just had on said that its going to be a landslide victory…for Kerry. Basically both people said that the new voter turnout is the key. They both claimed that ALL the polls are completely wrong and that Kerry will win in the EC by a landslide. The popular vote should be a comfortable Kerry win. No recount because its going to be too far out to bother with a recount. > > -XT What drugs were these guys on? I could use some Nov. 3rd. ---
**Author:** ![pantom](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/34f0e0/32.png) [@pantom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pantom)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2004, 12:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032/273 "2004-11-01T00:31:50Z")
I’m surprised no one’s yet mentioned this one: [The Washington Redskins Indicator,](http://www.jsonline.com/packer/news/oct04/269957.asp) which this year, as of just an hour or so ago, favors [Kerry.](http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=22&art_id=qw1099262701712U213) Heh. ---
**Author:** ![SpartanDC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b2d939/32.png) [@SpartanDC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SpartanDC)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2004, 1:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032/274 "2004-11-01T01:01:26Z")
Well, 48 hours to go, pretty much everything that’s going to happen has happened, and I’m procrastinating on writing a story about “527” organizations. This is a perfect time to make a prediction. Electoral Vote: Kerry: 284 Bush: 254 Popular Vote: Kerry: 49 percent Bush: 48 percent Battleground State breakdown: Kerry: Washington, Oregon, New Mexico, Florida, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Hawaii Bush: Ohio, Iowa, Nevada, Missouri, Arkansas, Colorado, West Virginia, Arizona My reasoning: Major daily tracking polls (Zogby, Fox News, Washington Post) have all shown either a trend for Kerry or one against Bush in the past couple days. Voter turnout is on track to be _ridiculously_ high in Florida (always bad for the incumbent) and the Dems kicked the GOPs butt in voter registration there and in other places. An L.A. Times survey showed that evangelicals are no more likely to vote for Bush this year than in 2000. A Fox News survey is also now showing a spike in enthusiasm among Kerry supporters. The number of undecided voters among young voters is as low as the general population – pointing to a high turnout among a group that leans Kerry. God, I can’t believe we’re at the end of this thing that’s been my life and livelihood for months. It’s been a helluva ride. See all of you back here on the big night. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2004, 1:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032/275 "2004-11-01T01:03:19Z")
I didn’t know you were covering politics, SNenc? I did that for several years. Who are you working for? ---
**Author:** ![SpartanDC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b2d939/32.png) [@SpartanDC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SpartanDC)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2004, 1:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032/276 "2004-11-01T01:10:58Z")
> [@Jonathan Chance](#): > > I didn’t know you were covering politics, SNenc? I did that for several years. > > Who are you working for? I don’t like to broadcast such things, but let’s just say that I get my fair share of lame jokes about working for Gentlemen’s Quarterly. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2004, 2:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032/277 "2004-11-01T02:42:00Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > I cannot tell you how much fun I will have pointing out these quotes after Bush wins. Classy. However, not unexpected. Here’s another one for you to enjoy: Bush won’t win 200 electoral college votes. ---
**Author:** ![antechinus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/fbc32d/32.png) [@antechinus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/antechinus)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2004, 2:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032/278 "2004-11-01T02:57:16Z")
> [@me (antechinus) on 19October](#): > > Odds at Centrebet are: > > BUSH, George W. (Republican Party) 1.47 > KERRY, John (Democratic Party) 2.50 > NADER, Ralph (Independent) 501.00 > I am surprised that Kerry is given such long odds, but these people make their money from this and I expect consider all the polls to determine these odds. Now, 1 November, the odds are: BUSH, George W. (Republican Party) 1.57 KERRY, John (Democratic Party) 2.25 ---
**Author:** ![tnetennba](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/7993a0/32.png) [@tnetennba](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tnetennba)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2004, 3:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032/279 "2004-11-01T03:05:35Z")
> [@antechinus](#): > > Now, 1 November, the odds are: > BUSH, George W. (Republican Party) 1.57 > KERRY, John (Democratic Party) 2.25 Surely you know that people who set odds don’t “know something” about the actual outcome. The line is set by people who bet, and they push the line to where they know they break even. If Bush is ahead, it merely means more money is bet on Bush. If the line is changing, it is because now people are starting to bet Kerry. It doesn’t reflect anything except how people are betting, and has nothing to do with the outcome of an event. The idea that the bettors know something is a common fallacy – so commone a fallacy, that at one point the government was toying with the idea of letting people bet on terrorist attack “futures,” thinking that it would actually predict terrorist attacks. ---
**Author:** ![furt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/439d5e/32.png) [@furt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/furt)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2004, 3:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032/280 "2004-11-01T03:19:27Z")
> [@cricetus](#): > > Surely you know that people who set odds don’t “know something” about the actual outcome. No, but it is a way of getting a consensus opinion that 1) excludes those that really aren’t sure what they think and 2) gauges their relative confidence in their opinion. Certainly\* some\* people have varying degrees of inside information; even if it’s just “the feeling I got from someone who knows someone who would know.” I for one, regard things like that as at least as reliable as telephone polling; not that I put a whole lot of stock in them… [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032.md?page=13) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032.md?page=15)