# We're in the home stretch: Election predictions **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 13, 2004, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032 "2004-10-13T16:49:13Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 17
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2004, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032/321 "2004-11-02T16:35:14Z")
> [@Hentor the Barbarian](#): > > I was at an Indian Guides campout over the weekend. I was speaking with another dad who was a veteran of the first Gulf War and who was trying to get himself on IRR status now, so that he could keep someone else from having to take a spot. He said that his wife scuttled his efforts, though. He also believed that the present war in Iraq was good and justified. Nevertheless, he said that he cannot bring himself to vote for Bush. If Bush can’t get the vote of a guy like this, he’s in trouble. I think this country is full of people of all kinds with integrity and honor, and who cannot support Bush even if they typically see themselves as Republican. IMO, there is a fairly large number of people who think that Gulf War II was both legitimate and reasonable, but that Bush & Co made a total botch of it, and will therefore withhold their votes. (I suspect that such people are more likely to stay home or cast a third-party protest vote than go for Kerry, but even so I think there are enough of them to tip the outcome). ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2004, 7:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032/322 "2004-11-03T07:31:03Z")
> [@samclem](#): > > “Bring it on” It’s brung. Where were all your cell phone users? ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2004, 7:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032/323 "2004-11-03T07:45:31Z")
It’s not over yet, **Bricker**. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2004, 7:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032/324 "2004-11-03T07:48:51Z")
> [@Diogenes the Cynic](#): > > It’s not over yet, **Bricker**. Sure it is. Kerry will likely concede tomorrow. It’s over. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2004, 7:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032/325 "2004-11-03T07:52:07Z")
> [@Steve MB](#): > > IMO, there is a fairly large number of people who think that Gulf War II was both legitimate and reasonable, but that Bush & Co made a total botch of it, and will therefore withhold their votes. (I suspect that such people are more likely to stay home or cast a third-party protest vote than go for Kerry, but even so I think there are enough of them to tip the outcome). Bush didn’t make a botch of the war; it was astoundingly successful. He’s not made a success of the peace. ---
**Author:** ![duffer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/duffer/32/1026_2.png) [@duffer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/duffer)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2004, 8:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032/326 "2004-11-03T08:03:30Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > Sure it is. Kerry will likely concede tomorrow. It’s over. Seconded ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2004, 10:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032/327 "2004-11-03T10:55:53Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > It’s brung. > > Where were all your cell phone users? Can you say that again, this time with an Edward G Robinson accent? “Where’s your cellphone users now, yah?” 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2004, 1:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032/328 "2004-11-03T13:38:59Z")
> [@Hentor the Barbarian](#): > > I am certain. Your logic on this matter appears to be limited. > > Your desperation is revealed in your need to assess and challenge my certainty. What difference does it make what my certainty level is, regardless of whether I “rebut” your presumptions about wagering? > > It shouldn’t, if you were confident in your belief. What do you have to say now, Hentor? I was certain, and I BACKED UP THAT CERTAINTY with a lot of talk, and some cash. You were “certain,” too, but the only thing that you backed it up with was talk. And here we are. I told you I was certain, and you tole me you were certain. Only one of us actually put something on the line, and it was the guy who was right. > [@Hentor the Barbarian](#): > > Classy. However, not unexpected. > > Here’s another one for you to enjoy: Bush won’t win 200 electoral college votes. Right. He won MORE. Good call. [QUOTE=cricetus] > [@Bricker](#): > > Answer: because he’s a better choice than Kerry. > > I’m still saying that Bush will win, as I have predicted confidently and continuously since 2002.I know people who predicted confidently and continuously that Boston would not win the World Series. > > Funny thing, the future. Hilarious. But I’d say a warm and wonderful thing, too, Wouldn’t you? ---
**Author:** ![tnetennba](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/7993a0/32.png) [@tnetennba](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tnetennba)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2004, 2:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032/329 "2004-11-03T14:06:07Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > What do you have to say now, Hentor? I was certain, and I BACKED UP THAT CERTAINTY with a lot of talk, and some cash. You were “certain,” too, but the only thing that you backed it up with was talk. And here we are. I told you I was certain, and you tole me you were certain. Only one of us actually put something on the line, and it was the guy who was right. > > Right. He won MORE. Good call. > > Hilarious. But I’d say a warm and wonderful thing, too, Wouldn’t you? The thing is, Bricker, you will slowly realize over the next four years that YOU haven’t won anything. You may or may not realize that you’ve been duped, but you will certainly realize that mounting debt and dead bodies are Bush’s only legacy. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2004, 2:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032/330 "2004-11-03T14:29:42Z")
Well, I must admit that my prediction of a narrow Kerry win was wrong. Obviously my predictive powers suck. Kudo’s to Bricker…he called it right. Now I need to get over this huge hang over and get back to work. 🙂 -XT ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_One](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/45deac/32.png) [@Evil\_One](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_One)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2004, 2:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032/331 "2004-11-03T14:36:26Z")
> [@Evil One](#): > > Bush will win with between 280 to 300 electoral votes. He may even win the popular vote. If he does not win the popular vote, look for a justified democratic effort to change the electoral college system once again. > > The Senate and House will remain in Republican hands. > > What do I get if I win? May I now claim bragging rights to the closest prediction to reality? ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2004, 2:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032/332 "2004-11-03T14:41:38Z")
Well, so much for **my** ability as a prognosticator. ---
**Author:** ![mack](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/b19c9b/32.png) [@mack](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mack)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2004, 3:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032/333 "2004-11-03T15:01:25Z")
> [@mack](#): > > hmmm. My gut tells me that people who may have entertained a vote for Kerry will end up voting for Bush when they have their booth moment. IOW I think we’ll have more weak Kerrys voting for Bush than vice versa. > > Bottom line: **Bush in a squeaker** , and not as hotly contested as 2000. An electoral but not popular vote win by Bush is a real possibility with Kerry having more popular votes over Bush than Gore did. I was right ☹ for the most part ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2004, 3:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032/334 "2004-11-03T15:13:07Z")
> [@cricetus](#): > > The thing is, Bricker, you will slowly realize over the next four years that YOU haven’t won anything. You may or may not realize that you’ve been duped, but you will certainly realize that mounting debt and dead bodies are Bush’s only legacy. Wow, bold prediction. From a guy who is not batting so well on the accuracy of his bold predictions. Here’s MY prediction: in 2008, I’ll be as happy with President Bush’s second term as I am with his first: generally pleased, but not without qualified criticism. And that’s coming from a guy whose record on bold predictions is pretty damn good. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2004, 3:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032/335 "2004-11-03T15:56:53Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > And that’s coming from a guy whose record on bold predictions is pretty damn good. I said it was too close to call. I was a wuss. **Bricker** was not, and he is right. Congratulations! Who do you see as running in 2008, and who will win? Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2004, 5:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032/336 "2004-11-03T17:15:49Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > I said it was too close to call. I was a wuss. **Bricker** was not, and he is right. > > Congratulations! > > Who do you see as running in 2008, and who will win? I’m not sure yet on either side. I believe there’s a 2 in 5 chance Mr. Cheney will resign from the Vice-Presidency within the next 12 months. How much of a fight the Democrats put up confirming his replacement is unclear to me right now, and the presumptive 2008 GOP ticket depends greatly on the outcome of those events, and there are too many variables for my crystal ball to handle. On the Democratic side, there’s no question in my mind that Mrs. Clinton is going to make a try for the nomination. She’s got plenty of people telling her she’s the One. I certainly don’t see John Edwards retiring to write his memoirs, but here, too, a great deal depends on what lessons the party leadership takes away from this campaign. The party may embrace the Nancy Pelosi left or make an attempt to return to the center. They have let the GOP steal their best ideas, file off the serial numbers, and claim credit for them (witness the Medicare prescription drug issue, for instance). The party that stood for broad, but sensible, social justice in the sixties has let itself be marginalized by includign a broad array of disparate interests under its “tent.” There will be some serious strategic discussion in the next 12 months, and the “take-charge” direction that emerges from those talks will guide the selection during the Democratic primaries. In short: a lot of talk for “I don’t know yet.” But by 2006, I hope I’ll be able to make some sort of solid guesses about 2008. ---
**Author:** ![bup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6bbea6/32.png) [@bup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bup)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2004, 6:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032/337 "2004-11-03T18:20:35Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > I believe there’s a 2 in 5 chance Mr. Cheney will resign from the Vice-Presidency within the next 12 months. What over/under are you offering? ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2004, 3:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032/338 "2004-11-05T03:31:49Z")
**Jonathan Chance** : About that $20… Do me a favor, and pick the veteran’s charity of your choice, and send it there, please. Let’s not forget amongst all the hoo-hah around this election that there are over 100,000 people sitting in the desert heat being shot at right now. If you send the $20 to a veteran’s charity, just let me know which one it was. Thanks. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2004, 12:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032/339 "2004-11-08T12:37:48Z")
Good enough. I’m figuring Amnesty International doesn’t count, right? And I’ve got to settle up with Bricker and Doors, too. I, at least, made no bets on ideological lines. I looked at the electorate and knew it would be close (and it was!). Gentlemen? ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2004, 2:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032/340 "2004-11-08T14:23:10Z")
> [@Jonathan Chance](#): > > Good enough. I’m figuring Amnesty International doesn’t count, right? > > And I’ve got to settle up with Bricker and Doors, too. I, at least, made no bets on ideological lines. I looked at the electorate and knew it would be close (and it was!). > > Gentlemen? E-mail me! (This is why betting with you was fun, but winning not the supreme satisfaction I would have attained if certain Ideological Cowards-that-Shall-not-be-Named had deigned to bet. Rubbing their faces in it would have been a pleasure… which I was denied, since really only sensible folks ended up taking any bet!!) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032.md?page=16) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/were-in-the-home-stretch-election-predictions/269032.md?page=18)