# Werewolf a game Part 2 (this time with MAFIA!) **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [March 26, 2007, 4:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565 "2007-03-26T16:47:06Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 120
**Author:** ![Rysto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ecccb3/32.png) [@Rysto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rysto)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2007, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2381 "2007-04-11T18:22:09Z")
Oh. Never mind then. **Nice** work, pimaspinner. Vote Autolycus ---
**Author:** ![Queuing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/90ced4/32.png) [@Queuing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Queuing)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2007, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2382 "2007-04-11T18:23:23Z")
Ok, I will follow you. I was actually wondering if one reason kivvik was trying so hard to paint Autolycus with the town brush was because he was the godfather, and of utmost importance to the Scum. However I dismissed this idea because I didn’t think it would be a great idea for any scum to be openly protecting of the godfather. unvote Fern Forest Lynch Autolycus Assassinate Fern Forest ---
**Author:** ![Malacandra](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Malacandra](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malacandra)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2007, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2383 "2007-04-11T18:25:21Z")
**Fern Forest** goes down without a doubt. A lynch sounds good to me. But we should still pick a Vig target on the off chance of a blunder. And yes, speak up about the Godfather if he’s been spotted. ---
**Author:** ![Menocchio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9de053/32.png) [@Menocchio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Menocchio)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2007, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2384 "2007-04-11T18:28:29Z")
Hell, you don’t have to tell me twice to lynch Autolycus. Him being the GF makes perfect sense. The persona is too obvious to waste on a lynch, while it invites investigation which could only further deflect suspicion. ---
**Author:** ![Hockey\_Monkey](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/a183cd/32.png) [@Hockey\_Monkey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hockey_Monkey)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2007, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2385 "2007-04-11T18:28:57Z")
[QUOTE=JSexton] Wow. Post 999 is a biggie, I can’t believe I missed it before. The only thing I fear is that you’ve been right 100% of the time. Twice on Blaster, once on the confirmed scum FCoD, and now this? That’s a lot of coin flips in a row for a beat cop. Not impossible, though. [/QUOTE] Which is why I spent a significant amount of time investigating the result. I didn’t know if I could trust it either. It was not the answer I was expecting. With what I came up with I’m about 90% confident that **Fern Forest** is the SK. Maybe I am incredibly lucky? 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Malacandra](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Malacandra](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malacandra)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2007, 6:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2386 "2007-04-11T18:29:40Z")
[QUOTE=Malacandra] **Fern Forest** goes down without a doubt. A lynch sounds good to me. But we should still pick a Vig target on the off chance of a blunder. And yes, speak up about the Godfather if he’s been spotted. [/QUOTE] Heh. Too darn slow. By the way, I want to be the _first_ to point out that **FCoD** ’s apparent validation of me as town is obvious tosh now we know he wasn’t the (a?) Miller. Fortunately for my case this doesn’t mean I’m scum. 🙂 Assassinate **Fern Forest** ---
**Author:** ![Rysto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ecccb3/32.png) [@Rysto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rysto)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2007, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2387 "2007-04-11T18:30:15Z")
You know, this could also test **JSexton** ’s claim. If **Autolycus** is not the Godfather, he must have survived for some other reason. That pretty much would have to be the Doc. **JSexton** claims that **MadTheSwine** was protected that night. If **Autolycus** is not the Godfather, that puts a lot of doubt on **JSexton** ’s claim. ---
**Author:** ![StarvingButStrong](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/starvingbutstrong/32/335_2.png) [@StarvingButStrong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/StarvingButStrong)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2007, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2388 "2007-04-11T18:30:25Z")
Yippee! I danced the night away, and two more Mafia are dead! Way to go, BlasterMaster and SK. Also kudos to Pimaspinner for fantastic work! IDs on SK AND the GF?? Super. So, who does it make sense to kill first? Feeling greedy, I’d like up to figure out who two more mafia are, then we can lynch the GF, aim the SK and Vig at the other two targets. Unless…if we wipe out all the Mafia, then the SK wins, yes? So maybe Godfather tonight, then Vig the SK. Must think on this…but wow! What a turn around in mood from Day 2 Dawn to Day 3 dawn. 🙂🙂🙂 ---
**Author:** ![MonkeyMensch](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/82dd89/32.png) [@MonkeyMensch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MonkeyMensch)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2007, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2389 "2007-04-11T18:32:01Z")
[QUOTE=pimaspinner] I am pretty sure I know who the Godfather is. He is immune from night kills from both the SK and the Vig. **Fern Forest** tried to kill him, but failed. … The only problem with a double hit is that the GF is totally immune to night kills, and that plan would not have worked, … [/QUOTE] I may be off base here, but at least one set of the rules says the GF is only immune from Vig kills. Am I missing something? ---
**Author:** ![JSexton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/96bed5/32.png) [@JSexton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JSexton)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2007, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2390 "2007-04-11T18:33:27Z")
[QUOTE=Menocchio] I buy pima’s analysis, which goes a long way towards shutting down my suspicions of Jsexton. I guess I’ll step off at least until later in the game or a credible counterclaim. Unvote JSexton. Now, what do we do about Fern? He’s obviously pro-town, and obviously very very good at choosing targets. Now that we’ve got the vig on a leash, could it be in our interests to let him Fern play chicken with us for a while? Try to find other mafia, or at least act as more chaff for the mafia to target without actually killing a townfolk? Basic strategy says no, but the SK has such a great record that I think it’s worth considering. [/QUOTE] Math time. We know there aren’t more than 10 scum to start, cause the mod said so. I think 9 is the most realistic top end, given the 10 vote to lynch rule. How low could it go? 8, certainly. 7? That seems too small, given that the mafia don’t have any powers other than a GF. So I think 9 is the likelist, but 8 is possible. We’ve got 4 dead scum. Say pima did manage to figure out the godfather, and we lynch that person. 5 scum. BM and Fern both hit mafia. 7 scum dead. We’re still at least one away from being out of scum. At this point, we HAVE to kill the SK. Which means we have to lynch correctly, failing that, Blaster has to hit. Otherwise, we risk the SK taking out the last scum and winning. So it kinda depends on how certain we are that Fern is the SK, and how many scum we think we can hit. Remember, we can potentially hit 2 mafia overnight. I think we can let Fern live for now, but if we lynch mafia correctly today, we need to be ready to lynch Fern tomorrow. ---
**Author:** ![MadTheSwine](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9fc29f/32.png) [@MadTheSwine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MadTheSwine)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2007, 6:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2391 "2007-04-11T18:34:11Z")
[QUOTE=pimaspinner] . With this new information now in hand, my thoughts are to lynch \*\*Autolycus, and have Blaster Master take out Fern Forest tonight. [/QUOTE] That sounds good to me,but we don’t want SK to kill anyone tonight do we? A miller needs to block **Fern** tonight. Vote Autolycus Vig Fern Forest ---
**Author:** ![Hockey\_Monkey](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/a183cd/32.png) [@Hockey\_Monkey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hockey_Monkey)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2007, 6:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2392 "2007-04-11T18:34:14Z")
[QUOTE=MonkeyMensch] I may be off base here, but at least one set of the rules says the GF is only immune from Vig kills. Am I missing something? [/QUOTE] I PM’d NAF with a rules query addressing this, because I wanted to be sure when I layed out my case. He is immune from all night kills from both the Vig and the SK. Even if double targeted. ---
**Author:** ![Queuing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/90ced4/32.png) [@Queuing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Queuing)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2007, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2393 "2007-04-11T18:36:30Z")
One thing I am wondering about: Pimaspinner openly admitted that he was going to investigate either Suburban Plankton or Fern Forest, whomever was left after the lynching. Knowing this, why would the SK leave him alive? Same reason the mafia did? Didn’t want to risk a block? To me, if I was the SK, this would have been a risk that was worth taking. Does the doctor protect from all attempted kills? Or just one? Or was Fern Forest willing to rely on the chance that Pimaspinner would be unlucky? I am not changing my vote. I still trust Pimaspinner. I just find this very odd. ---
**Author:** ![MonkeyMensch](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/82dd89/32.png) [@MonkeyMensch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MonkeyMensch)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2007, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2394 "2007-04-11T18:36:46Z")
[QUOTE=pimaspinner] I PM’d NAF with a rules query addressing this, because I wanted to be sure when I layed out my case. He is immune from all night kills from both the Vig and the SK. Even if double targeted. [/QUOTE] Excellent. Thanks. ---
**Author:** ![StarvingButStrong](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/starvingbutstrong/32/335_2.png) [@StarvingButStrong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/StarvingButStrong)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2007, 6:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2395 "2007-04-11T18:39:11Z")
I can’t see any benefit to leaving the GF running around. So Vote Autolycus Vig Fern Forest ---
**Author:** ![JSexton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/96bed5/32.png) [@JSexton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JSexton)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2007, 6:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2396 "2007-04-11T18:40:05Z")
Interesting. The main reason I was calling autolycus town was that I was reading Masonhood into his posts. His talk about getting yelled at by his buds I though translated in Masons hammering him. If he’s not a mason, then I retract my endorsement. As a ploy to draw investigations as GF, his play makes perfect sense. ---
**Author:** ![NAF1138](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/naf1138/32/3245_2.png) [@NAF1138](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NAF1138)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2007, 6:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2397 "2007-04-11T18:40:10Z")
… ---
**Author:** ![Rysto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ecccb3/32.png) [@Rysto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rysto)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2007, 6:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2398 "2007-04-11T18:41:50Z")
[QUOTE=Queuing] One thing I am wondering about: Pimaspinner openly admitted that he was going to investigate either Suburban Plankton or Fern Forest, whomever was left after the lynching. Knowing this, why would the SK leave him alive? Same reason the mafia did? Didn’t want to risk a block? To me, if I was the SK, this would have been a risk that was worth taking. Does the doctor protect from all attempted kills? Or just one? Or was Fern Forest willing to rely on the chance that Pimaspinner would be unlucky? I am not changing my vote. I still trust Pimaspinner. I just find this very odd. [/QUOTE] Gambler’s fallacy? ---
**Author:** ![Fretful\_Porpentine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fretful_porpentine/32/2873_2.png) [@Fretful\_Porpentine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fretful_Porpentine)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2007, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2399 "2007-04-11T18:43:09Z")
I don’t mean to rain on a perfectly good lynching parade here, but if **Fern Forest** is really the Serial Killer, does it make sense for him to talk _that_ much about the Serial Killer? Making the point – once or twice – that the serial killer is likely to play on the town’s side would be prudent; keeping such a high profile and mentioning the SK in more than a dozen different posts just seems like it … wouldn’t. And since there’s only one Serial Killer and a one-in-seven chance that a cop who’s wrong is going to get a Serial Killer reading, it seems to me any given, one-time reading of SK is significantly more likely to be a false positive than a true reading. No? OTOH, I _am_ all but convinced about **Autolycus** , because **Menoccio** ’s point makes a hell of a lot of sense. ---
**Author:** ![Queuing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/90ced4/32.png) [@Queuing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Queuing)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2007, 6:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2400 "2007-04-11T18:50:26Z")
I agree that it seems somewhat fishy that **Fern Forest** would talk so much, as well as not even try to kill **pimaspinner** , but what do we have to lose? We lynch Autolycus (I also agree with the reasons given by Menecchio, and think that is a hell of a play by Autolycus, ballsy and could have worked very easily, has to this point). Then BM kills Fern Forest. BM has to kill regardless so we might as well aim him at someone who might be the SK. If not, well we may lose another citizen sure, but the reason Fern Forest was being investigated by Pimaspinner in the first place was because he was next on the lynch list. We need to get the SK, and bring it down to a 1 night kill status. There is _probably_ 5 Scum left. We should be able to win that battle by 1 to 1 kills. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565.md?page=119) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565.md?page=121)