# Werewolf a game Part 2 (this time with MAFIA!) **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [March 26, 2007, 4:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565 "2007-03-26T16:47:06Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 122
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2007, 7:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2421 "2007-04-11T19:27:47Z")
Revealing the _number_ of remaining Masons is not a good idea. Here’s what I suggest: one of the remaining Masons outs themselves (keep in mind I won’t be around much on the weekend). I confirm that one. Night comes and one of us dies (to be fair, they should kill me first, but Mafia are scum, so who knows). We repeat this ritual each day only one confirmed Mason is left. If a Mason is the last, he says as much. (I am not the last Mason. 😃 ) Why not to reveal exact numbers: the additional information helps the Mafia more than the Town. ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2007, 7:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2422 "2007-04-11T19:33:09Z")
Oh, and no matter what, I’m not going to reveal any Masons. I’ll confirm, but it’s up to them to decide whether/when to out themselves or not. I’m just trying to let the Town build up a consensus so the Masons can make an informed decision. ---
**Author:** ![Rysto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ecccb3/32.png) [@Rysto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rysto)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2007, 7:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2423 "2007-04-11T19:38:31Z")
You know, if **Autolycus** is the Godfather, that would mean that **Fern Forest** has targeted a Mafioso for three consecutive nights. The only time he’s missed is on the first night, when it was completely random. ---
**Author:** ![Queuing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/90ced4/32.png) [@Queuing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Queuing)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2007, 7:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2424 "2007-04-11T19:38:59Z")
I see no reason why the mason’s need to come out. Or one more of them, or whatever. Or know how many there are. If you die tonight Pleonast, and then we target a mason tomorrow who then claims, we will believe them absent a counter-claim. If there is a counter-claim we choose straws, lynch one and thereby confirm the status of the other. Only when there is one mason left should they out themselves. That way we will know not to believe scum in mason clothing. /my vote lists Since they never seem to be correct, I won’t bother anymore. The 1 parenthesis is because the information isn’t complete yet! geez, first kat and now you! But fine, if for some reason I am actually 100% confident my vote list is correct, and I post it again, I will close them, k? /my vote lists off ---
**Author:** ![Queuing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/90ced4/32.png) [@Queuing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Queuing)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2007, 7:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2425 "2007-04-11T19:44:06Z")
[QUOTE=Queuing] If you die tonight Pleonast, and then we target a mason tomorrow who then claims, we will believe them absent a counter-claim. [/QUOTE] This should read: If you die tonight Pleonast, and then IF we target a mason tomorrow who then claims, we will believe them absent a counter-claim. ---
**Author:** ![brewha](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/91b2a8/32.png) [@brewha](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brewha)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2007, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2426 "2007-04-11T19:49:16Z")
**Auto** as GF makes perfect sense. Go high profile so the detective investigates him early and finds him town. It also makes the vig and sk waste a kill if they go after him. Well played mafia, but we’re on to you! Lynch Autolycus Vig Fern Forest I don’t see any reason to delay the countdown. I agree, the masons should stay in the shadows. I see no advantage to the town by them outing themselves. ---
**Author:** ![Hockey\_Monkey](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/a183cd/32.png) [@Hockey\_Monkey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hockey_Monkey)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2007, 7:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2427 "2007-04-11T19:50:19Z")
I am keeping a vote count by the way. Autolycus is at 7. I agree we can have much more discussion about this before we start the clock. I’ll be happy to post updated vote counts as needed. (I don’t keep up with un-votes though). \ ***The Unknown** \* Aguecheek ArizonaTeach Autolycus - Godfather? brewha Jsexton - Doctor? Fern Forest - Serial Killer? Fretful Porpentine glee hocow Kat Lakai MadTheSwine Malacandra Menocchio - Citizen? MonkeyMensch Pygmy Rugger Queuing - Citizen? Rysto Smitty/cowgirl StarvingButStrong Storyteller0910 Sturmhauke _ **The Confirmed** _ Blaster Master - Vigilante pimaspinner - Beat Cop Pleonast - Mason \*\*\*The Dead \*\*\* CaerieD - Detective Captain Carrot - Mason cowgirl one - Citizen Dnooman - Citizen Enfant Terrible - Citizen Gadarene - Citizen nesta - Mafia One and Only Wanderers - Citizen Winston Smith - Citizen Suburban Plankton - Mafia Kivvik - Mafia Flying Cow of Doom - Mafia Zuma - Mason ---
**Author:** ![Malacandra](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Malacandra](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malacandra)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2007, 7:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2428 "2007-04-11T19:52:11Z")
[QUOTE=Queuing] If you die tonight Pleonast, and then we target a mason tomorrow who then claims, we will believe them absent a counter-claim. If there is a counter-claim we choose straws, lynch one and thereby confirm the status of the other. Only when there is one mason left should they out themselves. That way we will know not to believe scum in mason clothing. [/QUOTE] I’ll buy that. It achieves the same positive results as naming the Masons now, and potentially keeps them alive longer. ---
**Author:** ![NAF1138](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/naf1138/32/3245_2.png) [@NAF1138](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NAF1138)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2007, 7:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2429 "2007-04-11T19:52:19Z")
[QUOTE=pimaspinner] I am keeping a vote count by the way. Autolycus is at 7. [/QUOTE] 8 now ---
**Author:** ![Hockey\_Monkey](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/a183cd/32.png) [@Hockey\_Monkey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hockey_Monkey)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2007, 7:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2430 "2007-04-11T19:52:50Z")
Now 8 for Autolycus ---
**Author:** ![MadTheSwine](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9fc29f/32.png) [@MadTheSwine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MadTheSwine)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2007, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2431 "2007-04-11T20:05:21Z")
[QUOTE=Queuing] I see no reason why the mason’s need to come out. Or one more of them, or whatever. Or know how many there are. If you die tonight Pleonast, and then we target a mason tomorrow who then claims, we will believe them absent a counter-claim. If there is a counter-claim we choose straws, lynch one and thereby confirm the status of the other. Only when there is one mason left should they out themselves. That way we will know not to believe scum in mason clothing. [/QUOTE] I disagree.I like Pleonasts idea about one of the masons claiming,if Pleonast dies,then someone makes a claim of mason,we got nothing to go on. ---
**Author:** ![Santo\_Rugger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e95f7d/32.png) [@Santo\_Rugger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Santo_Rugger)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2007, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2432 "2007-04-11T20:05:50Z")
Can anybody come up with a compelling reason why we -shouldn’t- lynch **Auto**? Since it’s so close to 10, I’ll hold off for a bit, at least until he has a chance to defend himself. ---
**Author:** ![Santo\_Rugger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e95f7d/32.png) [@Santo\_Rugger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Santo_Rugger)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2007, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2433 "2007-04-11T20:08:26Z")
[QUOTE=MadTheSwine] I disagree.I like Pleonasts idea about one of the masons claiming,if Pleonast dies,then someone makes a claim of mason,we got nothing to go on. [/QUOTE] I think **Queuing** ’s right. If there’s a false claim or false counter claim, one of them will be lying, giving us basically a 1:1 trade, which is very much in our favor at that point. (Assuming the SK is not around at that point). ---
**Author:** ![storyteller0910](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecae2f/32.png) [@storyteller0910](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/storyteller0910)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2007, 8:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2434 "2007-04-11T20:12:11Z")
Well, now we’re in business! Well done all around, **pima** , and everyone! Pending a re-read I’ll say a few quick things: (1) That we all need to slow \*way \* down. I see 8 votes already, and I’m just reading through this for the first time. There are plenty of people who haven’t contributed at all yet - including, very notably, **Autolycus** and **Fern Forest** - and there’s almost certainly something to be learned from how they respond to all of this. (2) That we should be very careful about assuming that we can “aim” the SK in the same way we have the Vig; the SK is _not_ on our side, and it’s worth remembering that. (3) That if **Auto** and **Fern** are indeed scum of one sort or another, then most of my key assumptions so far have been wrong, wrong, wrong. Anyway, once more into the breach. What is re-reading this thread going to be like when we’ve reached Day 7 or 8? ---
**Author:** ![JSexton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/96bed5/32.png) [@JSexton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JSexton)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2007, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2435 "2007-04-11T20:18:17Z")
[QUOTE=Pygmy Rugger] Can anybody come up with a compelling reason why we -shouldn’t- lynch **Auto**? Since it’s so close to 10, I’ll hold off for a bit, at least until he has a chance to defend himself. [/QUOTE] We have some good discussion about strategy going on. No reason to put and end to it yet. ---
**Author:** ![JSexton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/96bed5/32.png) [@JSexton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JSexton)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2007, 8:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2436 "2007-04-11T20:20:21Z")
[QUOTE=Pygmy Rugger] I think **Queuing** ’s right. If there’s a false claim or false counter claim, one of them will be lying, giving us basically a 1:1 trade, which is very much in our favor at that point. (Assuming the SK is not around at that point). [/QUOTE] I agree with this. If we were in dire straits, I’d want at least a couple claimed masons at all times. As it is, we can afford to trade off lynches if mafia try claiming masonhood. The only thing we need to know is when the LAST mason claims, so that no more can sneak on after they’re all dead. ---
**Author:** ![Autolycus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/22d042/32.png) [@Autolycus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Autolycus)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2007, 8:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2437 "2007-04-11T20:26:00Z")
I’s the godfather? Yeah, and **JSexton** ’s the tooth fairy. I’lls defend myself from you crazies later, cuz me thinks it’s more beneficial-like to watch everyone get there pantiez in a bunch first. You catch more flies with a web of lies is what mum always said. ---
**Author:** ![Santo\_Rugger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e95f7d/32.png) [@Santo\_Rugger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Santo_Rugger)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2007, 8:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2438 "2007-04-11T20:26:23Z")
[QUOTE=JSexton] We have some good discussion about strategy going on. No reason to put and end to it yet. [/QUOTE] Yep, that’s why I didn’t vote for him yet. I wasn’t asking why we shouldn’t lynch him right away, I was trying to see both sides of his story. I’m sure he’ll address them soon enough, though. ---
**Author:** ![cowgirl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/8c91f0/32.png) [@cowgirl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cowgirl)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2007, 8:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2439 "2007-04-11T20:28:18Z")
Hey folks. I started out with great intentions, spreadsheets and Google apps, oh my! But I just couldn’t get caught up so my detailed analysis ends sometime after \*\*Pimaspinner \*\*claimed but before **JSexton** did. (I have read the whole thing a number of times.) I think that, along with **pimaspinner** ’s delightful discovery post, above, I have enough information. Talk about coming in late to the party. I was ready to post just after **NAF** reported this “morning,” but I got called away from my desk and by the time I got back the nooses were tightening around two new necks. No matter, those necks were totally below my radar, so everything else I wrote is quite relevant. Well, as much as it ever was. Which I hope it is. A little. Anyhoo … I am for now taking the role claims at face value because it makes my head spin to try to untangle them, and after all the back-and-forth (particularly about **Blaster Master** ) I don’t think I can contribute any more than y’all already have. +++ [I wrote this before **Pima** ’s revelation, and **FF** ’s actions don’t surprise me at all.] Serial Killer - Maybe it’s just the agnostic in me talking but I haven’t the slightest idea who this person might be or, indeed, any idea how we could recognize him/her, even through extensive discussion. They would act just like a townie but kill people at night. No breadcrumbs. I can’t see how discussion of this point would be any more than random, and I found a lot of it up to now pointless at best, and at worst, to be a useful tactic for mafia to use: lots of discussion to look like they’re participating, without actually voting for anyone. Besides, their top priority would be to find the SK (even if they won’t kill him/her until later). ++++ Posts that are mostly things like odds, discussion of relative value of day kills vs night kills, focus on SK/Vig, etc - things other than fingering specific people - look a lot like smoke and mirrors to me. It is a good way to appear useful without actually saying anything. This is a tactic that I would probably use if I was mafia, because I would be worried about fingering people and having it used against me. These are “safe” conversations to have. I am additionally suspicious of posts hunting out the SK for the above reasons. (Disclosure: I only thought of this after I was already on page a million, the night was late and the margaritas too plentiful, so I may have a bit of confirmation bias. Although I noted that confirmed or suspected scum were much more likely to point fingers and make actual arguments about actual people, I could easily have missed counter-examples.) Here are the folks I noted doing it (not all of whom smell scummy to me): [Known scum Suburban Plankton](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8435253&postcount=1804) [known scum kivvik](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8435473&postcount=1819) [known scum FCOD](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8423740&postcount=1198) - most of his posts on Day 2 consist of repeating the BMc onditional arrangment to make sure we’ve all got it; day 3 is talking about vig/serial killer, etc [Fern Forest](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8431071&postcount=1689) - (this concern was echoed by [brewha](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8435686&postcount=1820)) [Pygmy Rugger](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8435305&postcount=1811) [Sturmhauke](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8435397&postcount=1815); later [defending](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8436599&postcount=1857) it [Lakai](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8435433&postcount=1816) [StarvingButStrong](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8436004&postcount=1827) - of course, she later agreed with Queuing’s [assertion](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8439858&postcount=1929) ++++ There are three of you who do smell decidedly mobby to me, for the reasons above and for additional reasons as well: **Lakai** - makes votes with poor reasoning ([here](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8405878&postcount=295) [and](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8435064&postcount=1794) [elsewhere](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8414630&postcount=628)) - starts up Enfant Terrible and Queuing bandwagon [here](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8407625&postcount=381) - of course, he does say [this](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8415625&postcount=702), which seems like a decidedly towny thing to say > [@](#): > > I was wondering if there could be 10 mafia members when it only takes 10 votes to lynch someone? There has to be less than 10 right? - has been generally helpful but not providing anything specifically useful other than voting for citizens (see above concern about smoke and mirrors folks) - right in there feeding bandwagons after townies, but somehow not attracting suspicion himself +++ **Pygmy Rugger** - - Smoke and mirrors as outlined above. - His role in that day of role claim craziness that ended with the conditional which took out two townies. Here is the vote count at post 1062, just before BM claimed: > [@](#): > > 7- Blaster Master - (Queuing, hocow, pimaspinner, Pygmy Rugger, ArizonaTeach, Gadarene, Winston Smith) > 5- Pleonast - (Fern Forest, Fretful Porpentine, Kat, Lakai, Suburban Plankton) > 4- Pygmy Rugger - (MTS, FCoD, Menocchio, glee) > 4- Queuing (kivvik, StarvingButStrong, zuma, Pleonast) > 3- Gadarene -(Smitty,Blaster Master, nesta) Note that **Pygmy Rugger** is right in there. Then **BM** claimed vigilante (post 1085) and all hell broke loose. How did **Pygmy Rugger** get dropped from the suspicion list? There was no defense and no reasoning for unvoting him, but somehow he got unvoted and two townies got dead. This is **Suburban Plankton** (known scum)'s outline of the options from [here](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8423895&postcount=1213) > [@](#): > > There are four people who between them have made about a zillion and one posts “today”. Those people, along with their “primary suspects” are: > Blaster Master: suspecting Gadarene and Queueing > Gadarene: suspecting Blaster Master and Pleonast > Queueing: suspecting Blaster Master and Pleonast > zuma: suspecting JSexton, Gadarene, Queueing, and pimaspinner Why are **Pygmy Rugger** and for that matter **Lakai** left off that list? **PM** was doing plenty of pointing, and had much pointed at him, but he’s not in this roll-up. **Lakai** was more of a pointer than a pointee that day but he’s also not included among those who have made a “zillion and one” posts. **Pygmy Rugger** reposts this list shortly thereafter, perhaps to encourage people to forget that his name belongs there too? - [Here](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8427336&postcount=1571) he says **Blaster Master** came up with the Vig conditional idea, which is untrue - **StarvingButStrong** did, [here](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8424279&postcount=1261) PM appears to me to be (a) building suspicion of BM and (b) supporting the idea that will lead directly to multiple townie deaths. - This conditional (minus **Pygmy Rugger** , of course) is supported by **Malacandra** (status unknown) in #1266; **FCOD** (known scum) in #1268; and **nesta** (known scum) #1288 before any known or suspected townies jump in. - And, on preview, his urgency to get Auto lynched today, and the day done, seems mighty funny to me. +++ \*\* MadTheSwine \*\* In rereading my notes I can’t really convincingly argue that he is scum, just that he set off a number of minor suspicions. I’m happy to elaborate if anyone is interested. But I just can’t forget about this (post [330](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8406317&postcount=330)) > [@](#): > > You trust Menocchio for what reason? Two more scum here folks. Kill them when I am dead. Why the aggression? Just doesn’t sit right. ---
**Author:** ![cowgirl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/8c91f0/32.png) [@cowgirl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cowgirl)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2007, 8:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2440 "2007-04-11T20:31:25Z")
Bah! Lousy no-editing. I previewed, and previewed, and previewed again, I say! [QUOTE=cowgirl] (Disclosure: I only thought of this after I was already on page a million, the night was late and the margaritas too plentiful, so I may have a bit of confirmation bias. Although I noted that confirmed or suspected **scum** were much more likely to point fingers and make actual arguments about actual people, I could easily have missed counter-examples.) [/quote] Of course by **scum** I meant **townies**. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565.md?page=121) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565.md?page=123)