# Werewolf a game Part 2 (this time with MAFIA!) **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [March 26, 2007, 4:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565 "2007-03-26T16:47:06Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 128
**Author:** ![NAF1138](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/naf1138/32/3245_2.png) [@NAF1138](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NAF1138)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2007, 4:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2541 "2007-04-12T16:01:30Z")
BTW the magic number to end the day instantly is 24 today. You are currently at 15. ---
**Author:** ![MonkeyMensch](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/82dd89/32.png) [@MonkeyMensch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MonkeyMensch)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2007, 4:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2542 "2007-04-12T16:07:56Z")
[QUOTE=glee] I like your careful pessimism. šŸ™‚ However, suppose we come down to just two already-suspected Mafia, plus the SK and there arenā€™t many Citizens left (say four). My understanding is that the Miller can only block one Mafia, so the other can kill. Plus the SK can kill a Citizen. Of course the Mafia wonā€™t win if they miss the SK, but the Town loses either way. Next, suppose we come down to just two already-suspected Mafia, plus the SK and there **are** many Citizens left. Now the SK aims for Mafia (or if the Doc is still with us, for the Doc. Or if the Miller is still there, for them.) The Mafia need to keep killing, so they might kill the Doc or Miller as well. Either way, itā€™s not good for the Town. :eek: [/QUOTE] Yeah. Still it might work for a turn or two. ---
**Author:** ![glee](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/b5a626/32.png) [@glee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/glee)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2007, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2543 "2007-04-12T16:12:44Z")
[QUOTE=MonkeyMensch] I was under the impression that when a Miller blocks ANY Mafia that the probability of a Mafia kill is then 1/n, where n is the number of remaining Mafia. [/QUOTE] Thanks for pointing that out. šŸ™‚ Actually I think the odds are the same in this case - still 50% for the Miller to block when there are precisely two Mafia left. [QUOTE=MonkeyMensch] Yeah. Still it might work for a turn or two. [/quote] No way am I criticising you! šŸ˜ƒ I throw out ideas too and I think thatā€™s by far the best Town strategy. However, when we are near the end of the game, there may only be a turn or two left. :eek: So we need to consider our priorities nowā€¦ ---
**Author:** ![glee](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/b5a626/32.png) [@glee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/glee)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2007, 4:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2544 "2007-04-12T16:16:45Z")
[QUOTE=storyteller0910] He _still_ hasnā€™t come in here yet to make a defense? vote Autolycus [/QUOTE] See post 2530. Autolycus is ā€˜thinkingā€™ about his defence. For 19 hoursā€¦ ---
**Author:** ![Hockey\_Monkey](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/a183cd/32.png) [@Hockey\_Monkey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hockey_Monkey)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2007, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2545 "2007-04-12T16:18:24Z")
I do intend to announce who I will be investigating. I donā€™t know right now, but will probably choose from\*\* Lakai\*\*, **Pygmy Rugger** , and **Aguecheek**. I am looking at the cases being made against each, so if you have an opinion let me know. ---
**Author:** ![Santo\_Rugger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e95f7d/32.png) [@Santo\_Rugger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Santo_Rugger)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2007, 4:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2546 "2007-04-12T16:23:14Z")
[QUOTE=glee] I think Pimaspinner should announce because: - it lets any other Beat Cops decide who they want to investigate - if Pima is suspicious of a Mason, the Mason can decide whether to let Pima know (thereā€™s been debate whether another Mason should reveal in case Pleonast is killed - the Mason can bear all that in mind) [/QUOTE] I disagree. the other beat cop can investigate just as well without knowing what **pima** will be doing. Also, as Iā€™ve said before, I think itā€™s best if we donā€™t reveal any more Masons unless we have to. Theyā€™re going to be more powerful during the endgame, and outing them at this point only gives the Mafia a bigger pool to attack, and the Doctor a bigger pool to defend. ---
**Author:** ![Queuing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/90ced4/32.png) [@Queuing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Queuing)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2007, 4:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2547 "2007-04-12T16:23:58Z")
Meh, any of those 3 are fine. If you find one more suspicious then another do what you feel like. We have about 10 hours I believe, so just make sure you announce whomever with 4-6 hours left. Just in case one is a mason or something and decides to claim before you waste a night. ---
**Author:** ![ArizonaTeach](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/45deac/32.png) [@ArizonaTeach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ArizonaTeach)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2007, 4:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2548 "2007-04-12T16:24:22Z")
Put me in the **pima** -announcing-his-investigation-target camp for the reasons given. My only addition would be that if the target is a mason, then \*\*Pleonast \*\* \*should \* step in before the investigation is wasted. Otherwise, I am firmly in the **Pleonast** -should-not-reveal camp because a guaranteed mafia lynch over the next two days is worth it. ---
**Author:** ![Santo\_Rugger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e95f7d/32.png) [@Santo\_Rugger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Santo_Rugger)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2007, 4:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2549 "2007-04-12T16:25:38Z")
[QUOTE=pimaspinner] I do intend to announce who I will be investigating. I donā€™t know right now, but will probably choose from\*\* Lakai\*\*, **Pygmy Rugger** , and **Aguecheek**. I am looking at the cases being made against each, so if you have an opinion let me know. [/QUOTE] Although I do like the idea of investigating from a small handful like this, but not announcing specifically which one youā€™ll be targeting tonight. ---
**Author:** ![ArizonaTeach](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/45deac/32.png) [@ArizonaTeach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ArizonaTeach)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2007, 4:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2550 "2007-04-12T16:28:37Z")
[QUOTE=Pygmy Rugger] I disagree. the other beat cop can investigate just as well without knowing what **pima** will be doing. Also, as Iā€™ve said before, I think itā€™s best if we donā€™t reveal any more Masons unless we have to. Theyā€™re going to be more powerful during the endgame, and outing them at this point only gives the Mafia a bigger pool to attack, and the Doctor a bigger pool to defend. [/QUOTE] Honestly, the only reason I can see for \*\*pima \*\* not telling us who heā€™s going to investigate is for the benefit of the mafia. It might waste another copā€™s investigationā€¦if Iā€™m missing something, let me know. Otherwise, I suggest investigate **Pygmy Rugger**. ---
**Author:** ![storyteller0910](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecae2f/32.png) [@storyteller0910](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/storyteller0910)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2007, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2551 "2007-04-12T16:30:45Z")
[QUOTE=Pygmy Rugger] I disagree. the other beat cop can investigate just as well without knowing what **pima** will be doing. [/QUOTE] Well, not really. I am not sure whether it is a better idea for Beat Cop II to: (1) investigate the same person as **pima** , to allow for result confirmation; or (2) to specifically _avoid_ investigating the same person, as a way of generating additional information. Whichever Beat Cop II prefers, though, having **pima** announce a target beforehand gives Beat Cop II the chance to choose from those options, rather than just firing blindly and hoping things work out. ---
**Author:** ![Santo\_Rugger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e95f7d/32.png) [@Santo\_Rugger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Santo_Rugger)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2007, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2552 "2007-04-12T16:32:57Z")
[QUOTE=ArizonaTeach] Honestly, the only reason I can see for \*\*pima \*\* not telling us who heā€™s going to investigate is for the benefit of the mafia. It might waste another copā€™s investigationā€¦if Iā€™m missing something, let me know. Otherwise, I suggest investigate **Pygmy Rugger**. [/QUOTE] If **pima** _does_ tell us, and it is a Mason, it would be better for the mob. Iā€™ll await **JSexton** ā€™s thoughts on the matter, him and I have had a similar conversation earlier about this. Itā€™s not good to out a Mason if we donā€™t have to. The only time we have to his if theyā€™re about to get lynched. ---
**Author:** ![Fern\_Forest](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/71c47a/32.png) [@Fern\_Forest](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fern_Forest)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2007, 4:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2553 "2007-04-12T16:33:08Z")
[QUOTE=Blaster Master] **Fern Forest** , it doesnā€™t look like youā€™re convincing many people. I have every intention of continuing to treat the VIG kill like a pseudo-lynching; thus, lest you can convince several people that I should target someone else, youā€™re my target tonight. [/QUOTE] Well if you or anyone knows any magical defense I could put up Iā€™d like to hear it. I myself have no idea what I can do since you guys are so damn suspicious of me. So Iā€™m ready to die peacefully then spend my last few hours flailing around. Especially Iā€™m about to head out to work and wont get back till this day is over and Iā€™m a dead man. At least you guys killed the guy with the freaking _pinky ring_ first. Lynch **Autolycus**. My only hope is heā€™s the SK. Slim chance of that. Iā€™ll see you all in my farewell post where I shall chastise you all for completely failing to understand what I was doing yesterday. ---
**Author:** ![Santo\_Rugger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e95f7d/32.png) [@Santo\_Rugger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Santo_Rugger)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2007, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2554 "2007-04-12T16:40:24Z")
[QUOTE=storyteller0910] Well, not really. I am not sure whether it is a better idea for Beat Cop II to: (1) investigate the same person as **pima** , to allow for result confirmation; or (2) to specifically _avoid_ investigating the same person, as a way of generating additional information. Whichever Beat Cop II prefers, though, having **pima** announce a target beforehand gives Beat Cop II the chance to choose from those options, rather than just firing blindly and hoping things work out. [/QUOTE] True. If both those options are good options, however, then it doesnā€™t matter and they can confer in the morning. If the scum target them overnight, it doesnā€™t matter, because they wonā€™t be able to report their investigations. Thatā€™s why I think a small handful of suspects is best. It gives the best of both options you list, and doesnā€™t absolutely have to out a Mason. Again, **JSexton** , please correct me if Iā€™m wrong, but at this point itā€™s better to ā€œwasteā€ an investigation on a Mason than to out another one, knowing that we probably have only 2-3 left? ---
**Author:** ![Queuing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/90ced4/32.png) [@Queuing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Queuing)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2007, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2555 "2007-04-12T16:48:35Z")
[QUOTE=Fern Forest] Iā€™ll see you all in my farewell post where I shall chastise you all for completely failing to understand what I was doing yesterday. [/QUOTE] Do what you need to do, but I think a number of us thought you were a townie, and that is all. I know I did. I know a number of others did. Its why you didnā€™t get lynched yesterday. Unfortunately for you, a cop investigated you and you came up SK. Sure he could be wrong. However 50/50 odds are odds most of us would bet on. I agree with you that there is little you could say that would stop the Vig kill now. Sorry about that if it does turn out you are town. He does raise something of a good point though. Say Autolycus is the SK and not the Godfather? Do we have a backup target for BM? On a different note, why the asking for what JSexton has to say? JSexton is not some sort of guru, and IMO is currently one of the least trusted players in this game. He has made a claim that can only be verified by his death, so until that happens I donā€™t trust him. At all. So to put it bluntly JSexton will have to be very persuasive to change my mind. YMMV. Let Pimaspinner investigate whom he pleases. I think he should tell us so the other beat cop can investigate someone else (I donā€™t think its worth it to investigate twice at this time, but the cops can do as they see fit). If his target is a mason then that target can choose to out themselves, and then have Pleonast confirm/deny. Or not. At this point we have to put some trust into our power roles, and let them play the game as they see fit. ---
**Author:** ![storyteller0910](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecae2f/32.png) [@storyteller0910](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/storyteller0910)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2007, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2556 "2007-04-12T16:53:34Z")
[QUOTE=Queuing] He does raise something of a good point though. Say Autolycus is the SK and not the Godfather? Do we have a backup target for BM? [/QUOTE] Unless I am misreading the rules, if **Autolycus** is the SK, there will be no target for **Blaster Master** at all, because he will not longer be the Vigilante - he becomes ordinary town upon the death of the Serial Killer. NAF: is this correct? > [@](#): > > Let Pimaspinner investigate whom he pleases. I think he should tell us so the other beat cop can investigate someone else (I donā€™t think its worth it to investigate twice at this time, but the cops can do as they see fit). If his target is a mason then that target can choose to out themselves, and then have Pleonast confirm/deny. Or not. At this point we have to put some trust into our power roles, and let them play the game as they see fit. I strongly agree with every word of this. ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2007, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2557 "2007-04-12T16:53:57Z")
[QUOTE=Queuing] He does raise something of a good point though. Say Autolycus is the SK and not the Godfather? Do we have a backup target for BM? [/QUOTE] We need a backup target. ---
**Author:** ![Santo\_Rugger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e95f7d/32.png) [@Santo\_Rugger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Santo_Rugger)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2007, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2558 "2007-04-12T16:55:10Z")
[QUOTE=Queuing] \On a different note, why the asking for what JSexton has to say? JSexton is not some sort of guru, and IMO is currently one of the least trusted players in this game. He has made a claim that can only be verified by his death, so until that happens I donā€™t trust him. At all. So to put it bluntly JSexton will have to be very persuasive to change my mind. YMMV.\ [/QUOTE] My question to him is of general game strategy. Regardless of his affiliation, I see him as the kind of guy who would answer honestly in the pursuit of fighting ignorance. The point Iā€™m currently trying to make does not concern specific people (just a specific role), and I asked **JSexton** twice to be sure heā€™d see it, since he is one of the more experienced players of this game. ---
**Author:** ![Blaster\_Master](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/cab0a1/32.png) [@Blaster\_Master](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blaster_Master)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2007, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2559 "2007-04-12T17:14:40Z")
[QUOTE=pimaspinner] I do intend to announce who I will be investigating. I donā€™t know right now, but will probably choose from\*\* Lakai\*\*, **Pygmy Rugger** , and **Aguecheek**. I am looking at the cases being made against each, so if you have an opinion let me know. [/QUOTE] I agree with the list, Iā€™m pretty much equally suspicious of **Lakai** and **Aguecheek** ; I think the suspicion of **Pygmy Rugger** , while understandable, is not nearly as strong or justifiable. I would recommend you target one between the two, and the other beat cop investigate the other, but I will resign to your choice regardless. [QUOTE=storyteller0910] Unless I am misreading the rules, if **Autolycus** is the SK, there will be no target for **Blaster Master** at all, because he will not longer be the Vigilante - he becomes ordinary town upon the death of the Serial Killer. NAF: is this correct? [/QUOTE] This is correct. A backup target is not necessary; I will lose my powers immediately upon **Autolycus** ā€™s death if he is the SK and not the GF. Similarly, at this point, if neither \*\*Fern Forest \*\* or **Autolycus** is the SK, because I think most of the town considers me just about 100% confirmed, if we think weā€™ve found the SK, then it makes little difference if we lynch or I target. [QUOTE=Fern Forest] Well if you or anyone knows any magical defense I could put up Iā€™d like to hear it. I myself have no idea what I can do since you guys are so damn suspicious of me. So Iā€™m ready to die peacefully then spend my last few hours flailing around. Especially Iā€™m about to head out to work and wont get back till this day is over and Iā€™m a dead man. [/QUOTE] Well, assuming my math earlier is correct, if you are the SK, thatā€™s a 56.25% [p(I(SK)|SK)] chance you would have come up as the SK, and if you werenā€™t, a 6.25%[p(I(SK)|~SK)] chance. That is, now that you HAVE come up as SK, we can conclude that the probability that youā€™re the SK based only on that reading is 90% [P(SK|I(SK))]. Add to that all of the research that **pimaspinner** provided and, well, I canā€™t think of a thing you could say that would help you. Iā€™m convinced youā€™re not mafia, as I was yesterday, but the odds are just too high that youā€™re the SK to ignore. ---
**Author:** ![Queuing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/90ced4/32.png) [@Queuing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Queuing)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2007, 5:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2560 "2007-04-12T17:20:26Z")
[QUOTE=storyteller0910] Unless I am misreading the rules, if **Autolycus** is the SK, there will be no target for **Blaster Master** at all, because he will not longer be the Vigilante - he becomes ordinary town upon the death of the Serial Killer. NAF: is this correct? [/QUOTE] Ah, very good point. I also believe this is correct after re-reading the rules. If the SK dies so does the VIG killing ability. Therefore the point is moot. \*\*Pygmy Rugger \*\*, ah I see. Just a general ā€œhow to play this gameā€ question. Ok I suppose. Still though we are playing this game, and whatever he says must be taken in the context of this game. Again YMMV. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565.md?page=127) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565.md?page=129)