# Werewolf a game Part 2 (this time with MAFIA!) **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [March 26, 2007, 4:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565 "2007-03-26T16:47:06Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 135
**Author:** ![Blaster\_Master](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/cab0a1/32.png) [@Blaster\_Master](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blaster_Master)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2007, 6:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2681 "2007-04-13T18:41:39Z")
[QUOTE=ArizonaTeach] Is there any way to blame what happened to \*\*Auto \*\* on bad math? [/QUOTE] Yes, because the probability that **Fern Forest** is the SK is a lot smaller than I showed, which makes any deductions based on him being the SK that much more likely to be untrue. I just spent more time than I should have going back over my math formulae and deriving (and proving, this time) simple formulae to give percentages based on the beat cop’s investigations. So, unless **NAF** will let me post them now (unlikely), I’ll post them first thing when the next day starts, and hopefully we can be a little more “enlightened” in the future. ---
**Author:** ![cowgirl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/8c91f0/32.png) [@cowgirl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cowgirl)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2007, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2682 "2007-04-13T18:43:39Z")
Bah. It all made so much sense. Oh well, we had nothing more to go on. Sorry **Auto**. Hope you’re enjoying the nachos in the other thread. Have some extra guacamole, on me. Tomorrow is going to be complicated. I can’t decide whether a stiff drink will clear my head or cloud it. Ah well, let’s risk it. Barkeep: a pitcher of draft, please, and keep 'em coming. _sigh_ ---
**Author:** ![Kat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/b19c9b/32.png) [@Kat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kat)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2007, 12:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2683 "2007-04-14T00:02:02Z")
[QUOTE=pimaspinner] ☹ [/QUOTE] I’ll sit by you, **pima**. You can scare away all the creeps and miscreants with your badge. _waves to the bartender for another drink_ ---
**Author:** ![MonkeyMensch](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/82dd89/32.png) [@MonkeyMensch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MonkeyMensch)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2007, 1:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2684 "2007-04-14T01:39:18Z")
Hey! What do you know! I’m off the road and in time for a drink. Hmmm. T ‘n’ T, please with lemon not lime. ::Sits back and puts up the dogs:: ---
**Author:** ![Fern\_Forest](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/71c47a/32.png) [@Fern\_Forest](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fern_Forest)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2007, 4:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2685 "2007-04-14T04:26:41Z")
27 and 1/2 hours into the lonely ol’ night. Somebody’s taking their sweet time. Well I guess I should start practicing my last words. “Not in the face! Not in the face!” ---
**Author:** ![Kat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/b19c9b/32.png) [@Kat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kat)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2007, 4:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2686 "2007-04-14T04:36:34Z")
You could try wearing a bullet-proof vest. ---
**Author:** ![Fern\_Forest](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/71c47a/32.png) [@Fern\_Forest](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fern_Forest)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2007, 5:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2687 "2007-04-14T05:51:18Z")
I don’t think Blaster Master’s the gun in the back type. I am keeping an eye out for tiger traps though. ---
**Author:** ![Santo\_Rugger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e95f7d/32.png) [@Santo\_Rugger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Santo_Rugger)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2007, 9:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2688 "2007-04-14T09:12:21Z")
[QUOTE=Fern Forest] 27 and 1/2 hours into the lonely ol’ night. Somebody’s taking their sweet time. Well I guess I should start practicing my last words. “Not in the face! Not in the face!” [/QUOTE] I hate it when they say that! ---
**Author:** ![NAF1138](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/naf1138/32/3245_2.png) [@NAF1138](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NAF1138)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2007, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2689 "2007-04-14T17:39:25Z")
\*This night in Doperville was bittersweet and quiet. Hard drinking was done by all. Fern Forest was nervous about the night to come. It wasn’t everyday that you get marked for death by the town Vigelante. So in an attempt at irony, Fern Forest started up the woodchipper behind the warehouses and called out into the night. “Come and get me Blaster Master!” This attempt at bravado did not save Fern Forest however. The bloody mess found on the ground was only identifyable by the dental records of the victim. Blaster master was still covered in gore when they found him. His head facing the wrong way on his body, and his legs broken by what appeared to be a sledghammer. JSexton was working in his office, working on new surgical techniques that could possibly save the life of one of the innocent citizens of the town. The last person who heard from him was his wife. He told her to kiss his newborn baby goodnight because he would be home late. That morning she recieved a fish wrappen in newspaper on her doorstep. JSexton was never seen again.\* **Fern Forest** - Citizen **Blaster Master** - Vigelante **& JSexton**- Doctor are all dead. These death scenes were brought to you tonight by the killers themselves. Hope you enjoyed them! Its 10:30 am my time, so the next day ends at 10:30 am on Wednesday. Good luck, and try to stay alive. ---
**Author:** ![MadTheSwine](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9fc29f/32.png) [@MadTheSwine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MadTheSwine)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2007, 5:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2690 "2007-04-14T17:43:21Z")
HOLY SHIT! We are in trouble now. ---
**Author:** ![Santo\_Rugger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e95f7d/32.png) [@Santo\_Rugger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Santo_Rugger)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2007, 5:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2691 "2007-04-14T17:48:40Z")
Wow. Every time I find out what happened during the night, I am wowed. **FF** wasn’t the SK, and now we’ve lost our doctor and Vig. Part of the reason I had hoped we wouldn’t reveal so many power roles so soon is that our doctor simply had too many people to protect, and couldn’t protect them all. At this point in the game, the Vig was becoming more of a liability, though, because we kept pointing him at ourselves instead of at the mob. Hopefully tonight we’ll be able to flush out some more scum. We should take a close look at **pima** ’s claims, though. Tonight, s/he directly caused the deaths of two citizens ( **Auto** and **FF**. Perhaps s/he’s a beat cop, perhaps not. But from now on we should have him/her investigate somebody at least twice before reporting back to us on it. We simply can’t afford to keep losing townies based on one nights (beat cop) results, especially given the recent track record. ---
**Author:** ![Lakai](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/9de0a6/32.png) [@Lakai](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lakai)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2007, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2692 "2007-04-14T17:51:55Z")
Awww crap. ---
**Author:** ![Lakai](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/9de0a6/32.png) [@Lakai](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lakai)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2007, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2693 "2007-04-14T17:57:19Z")
[QUOTE=Pygmy Rugger] We should take a close look at **pima** ’s claims, though. Tonight, s/he directly caused the deaths of two citizens ( **Auto** and **FF**. [/QUOTE] It wasn’t just him. The whole town went bonkers, yourself included. ---
**Author:** ![Fretful\_Porpentine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fretful_porpentine/32/2873_2.png) [@Fretful\_Porpentine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fretful_Porpentine)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2007, 5:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2694 "2007-04-14T17:58:03Z")
> [@](#): > > But from now on we should have him/her investigate somebody at least twice before reporting back to us on it. I’d emend this slightly – **pimaspinner** should _report_ all of his or her results as they come in, but the town should think long and hard before _acting_ on them. I say this because if **pimaspinner** really is the Beat Cop, and gets bumped off tomorrow night – as is quite likely – it would be nice for us to know what the result of last night’s investigation was, and if **pimaspinner** is in fact Mafia, we’ll probably be able to infer something useful if we know _which_ wrong directions he or she tried to steer us in. That said, I think there are two lessons to be learned from the last day’s tragic events: 1) **pimaspinner** may be a cop, but that doesn’t mean that his or her hunches and theories are any better than the rest of ours when not backed up by investigations; and 2) any investigation that reveals the investigatee as having a unique power role is far more likely to be false than true. ---
**Author:** ![Fern\_Forest](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/71c47a/32.png) [@Fern\_Forest](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fern_Forest)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2007, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2695 "2007-04-14T18:11:35Z")
There’s a definite theme to this game, we’re extremely good at being suspicious of other townfolk. Sorry Sturmhauke, what can I say, it made sense. Although I was right about JSexton. Freedom’s just another word for nothing left to do. ---
**Author:** ![brewha](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/91b2a8/32.png) [@brewha](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brewha)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2007, 6:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2696 "2007-04-14T18:12:26Z")
Huh. I think we’re screwed. ---
**Author:** ![Blaster\_Master](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/cab0a1/32.png) [@Blaster\_Master](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blaster_Master)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2007, 6:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2697 "2007-04-14T18:18:29Z")
What a wonderful thing; waking up dead. Not only was I unable to avenge the death of my beloved at the hands of the serial killer, but also I fell to the same hand. You must carry out my vengence for me! Seriously though, that was a REALLY bad night… the loss of the doctor, a confirmed citizen, another citizen, and it’s only going to get worse with no doctor. Good luck, we’re really going to need it to pull it off now. On the plus side, at least you all got rid of my loud, obnoxious self. I KNEW I was wasting my time working out those formulae… oh well. Off to the forbidden thread. ---
**Author:** ![hocow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hocow/32/4112_2.png) [@hocow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hocow)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2007, 6:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2698 "2007-04-14T18:31:35Z")
Oof. ☹ ---
**Author:** ![glee](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/b5a626/32.png) [@glee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/glee)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2007, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2699 "2007-04-14T18:32:54Z")
[QUOTE=Lakai] It wasn’t just him. The whole town went bonkers, yourself included. [/QUOTE] I don’t agree at all. **Autolycus** posted almost exclusively Mafia-speak content-free posts. He was defended on several occasions by what turned out to be known Mafia. He posted illegally at night and edited illegally. He didn’t seem to understand the rules. Clearly he was either a Townie playing for himself, or the Godfather trying to attract a Cop to investigate him and reveal a ‘Townie’. Finally his lynch defence was not convincing. (Also you really wouldn’t have wanted him to be one of the last Townies, would you?) Pimaspinner claimed to be a Beat Cop and gave a result worth investigating. [QUOTE=Fretful Porpentine] …any investigation that reveals the investigatee as having a unique power role is far more likely to be false than true. [/quote] Can you explain your maths? (Beat Cops get a 50% chance of correctly identifying their suspect, whether they have a unique power role or not.) ---
**Author:** ![glee](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/b5a626/32.png) [@glee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/glee)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2007, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2700 "2007-04-14T18:36:54Z")
[QUOTE=Pygmy Rugger] We should take a close look at **pima** ’s claims, though. Tonight, s/he directly caused the deaths of two citizens ( **Auto** and **FF**. Perhaps s/he’s a beat cop, perhaps not. [/quote] Fair enough. [QUOTE=Pygmy Rugger] But from now on we should have him/her investigate somebody at least twice before reporting back to us on it. We simply can’t afford to keep losing townies based on one nights (beat cop) results, especially given the recent track record. [/QUOTE] It would be mathematically much better, but I don’t think there’s much time for this. Presumably if Pimaspinner is a Beat Cop he gets killed next night. And once any other Beat Cop reveals a result (or is threatened by a Town lynch), theyir life expectancy is quite short. :eek: [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565.md?page=134) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565.md?page=136)