# Werewolf a game Part 2 (this time with MAFIA!) **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [March 26, 2007, 4:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565 "2007-03-26T16:47:06Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 144
**Author:** ![sturmhauke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e47c2d/32.png) [@sturmhauke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sturmhauke)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2007, 5:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2861 "2007-04-18T05:51:51Z")
I’ve been unable to summon the energy to comb through this leviathan of a thread looking for clues. I think it’s now over twice as long as the last game thread. I did read some posts by Aguecheek, which reminded me that I was suspicious of him early on during the Day 2 melee, despite the fact that he appeared to be aligned more on my side (which is to say, against Queuing, who was busy yelling for Pleonast’s and zuma’s heads). Back then I was suspicious of both of them, but my suspicion of Queuing lessened over time while my thoughts of Aguecheek were more just pushed into the background. Now I think that he may be attempting to direct things from the shadows. Vote Aguecheek. ---
**Author:** ![Santo\_Rugger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e95f7d/32.png) [@Santo\_Rugger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Santo_Rugger)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2007, 6:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2862 "2007-04-18T06:13:51Z")
[QUOTE=cowgirl] \ Methinks perhaps Pygmy Rugger doth protest too much. [/QUOTE] Methinks perhaps **cowgirl** didn’t read the first quote in my post, in which I quoted **storyteller** , who asked me to explain my vote and FoS. 😉 The reason I think just about all posts before **BM** claimed Vig are now irrelevant is twofold. First, at that point in time, the Mafia would have had to have been pretty darn silly to begin showing their allegiance. Most of the things said were pretty random, and we’ve pretty much figured out the roles of the major players in that debacle. Second, I was confused as all hell as those events were unfolding, and I don’t want to go back and reread that part of the thread because it hurts my head. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Malacandra](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Malacandra](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malacandra)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2007, 7:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2863 "2007-04-18T07:21:48Z")
Mmf. This spat with \*\*Queuing \*\* does feel like a town-versus-town fight, and although he’s still fretting over trifles like what I did or didn’t do back on pages 10 - 12 of this thread, I’ll show willing: Unvote **Queuing** No re-vote until I’ve had a look. ---
**Author:** ![Aguecheek](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/a9adbd/32.png) [@Aguecheek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aguecheek)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2007, 7:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2864 "2007-04-18T07:31:28Z")
Well. I’d like to sit back and wait for the majority vote and the countdown to say all this, but time’s a runnin’ out and for damn sure I will not be able to post tomorrow at all. I was busy today, I know for certain I’m going to be busier tomorrow. **sturmhauke** ’s vote puts me at 3, one behind **Queuing**. I can’t take that chance. **I am a Cop.** First night, I investigated **sturmhauke**. Why not? He’d played before, he was good, and I think he’s got a cool name. He came back Mafia. :eek: Coupled with the fact that he was the most prominent former player who’d survived, I figured I had a good investigation, and pushed for his lynching. That didn’t go through. Which is good, but it raised a few eyebrows… Second night, I investigated **sturmhauke** again, for a confirmation. No go. He came back town. Ironically, he came back as a regular townie, not a mason. So I was wrong twice in a row… Third night, I checked out **Blaster Master** to confirm his Vigilantiness. And it came back good. I was very excited to find out my copometre wasn’t broken. Fourth night, I looked at **pimaspinner** and confirmed Cop. Yay me. Last night, with no particular target to think of, I checked out **Queuing**. I’ll admit I was still kind of annoyed he’d FOS’d me for no real reason I could think of, besides **JSexton** ’s first analysis. I was also beginning to wonder _why_ exactly, he was generally accepted as town all of a sudden. Anyways…the result I got back was Serial Killer. And since we’re back to no real good suspects, _and_ I found those interesting posts pushing to get rid of the SK, and then refusing to discuss the SK at all…push for a vote. Apparently, I get in trouble when I try to keep my mouth shut, but I get in bigger trouble when I try to help out. So…yeah, I’m a cop (obviously a rookie cop), but I didn’t crumb **hocow**. I was saying “holy cow” in an awed voice. Like I said, I’d’ve liked to have waited longer, but tomorrow’s hell day. I’ll be able to look at the thread once or twice, but I won’t have time to post. So I’ll shoot this out here right now and hope I don’t come home tomorrow dead. ---
**Author:** ![Santo\_Rugger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e95f7d/32.png) [@Santo\_Rugger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Santo_Rugger)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2007, 7:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2865 "2007-04-18T07:37:00Z")
[QUOTE=Aguecheek] \ Last night, with no particular target to think of, I checked out **Queuing**. I’ll admit I was still kind of annoyed he’d FOS’d me for no real reason I could think of, besides **JSexton** ’s first analysis. I was also beginning to wonder _why_ exactly, he was generally accepted as town all of a sudden. Anyways…the result I got back was Serial Killer. And since we’re back to no real good suspects, _and_ I found those interesting posts pushing to get rid of the SK, and then refusing to discuss the SK at all…push for a vote. Apparently, I get in trouble when I try to keep my mouth shut, but I get in bigger trouble when I try to help out.\ [/QUOTE] What? That doesn’t make sence at all? Especially with all this discussion going on about how it is very, very unlikely for us to be able to find the SK with a Cop. Not to mention how dubious role claims seem at this point. Unvote cowgirl. Lynch Aguecheek ---
**Author:** ![sturmhauke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e47c2d/32.png) [@sturmhauke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sturmhauke)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2007, 9:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2866 "2007-04-18T09:01:27Z")
I’d just like to say that the Beat Cop role officially sucks ass. All it’s good for is throwing a monkey wrench into the game. ---
**Author:** ![Malacandra](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Malacandra](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malacandra)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2007, 9:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2867 "2007-04-18T09:19:53Z")
[QUOTE=sturmhauke] I’d just like to say that the Beat Cop role officially sucks ass. All it’s good for is throwing a monkey wrench into the game. [/QUOTE] I’m inclined to agree. If I get around to running a game, I’d make it more like 50% correct, 25% no result and only 25% false. That’s OTTOMH and I might crunch some numbers to come up with a fairer deal if this still looks too weak. All it does have going for it is that usually a read of “Citizen” or “Mafia” will be right - although, as **Aguecheek** ’s account above shows if it happens to be true, there’s still plenty of scope for error. I am still mulling over what the figures look like when the Cop is investigating a _claim_ of a unique role. Unique role IDs out of the blue are extremely unreliable because of the improbability of just happening across the role, but claimers, I guess, aren’t random; the stats on our two games so far might show us that claims are true as often as they are false. Gotta think some more… Sorry if this sounds like more irrelevant math, but, y’know, just 'cos I don’t play the game like you (_rhet_.) would doesn’t mean I’m not playing the game. 🆒 ---
**Author:** ![Malacandra](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Malacandra](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malacandra)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2007, 11:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2868 "2007-04-18T11:00:49Z")
Here’s a first cut at it: Premise: The probability of someone claiming a particular “unusual” role is much greater than the probability of a random player having that role. This is because sanctions are taken against false claims. For the actual numbers we can examine this thread and the previous Werewolf thread, but I have not done so. I’ll suggest some numbers later; if anyone cares to, they can dig up the right numbers. Let _c_ be the probability that a role-claim is true. Then the probability that it is false is _1-c_. On investigation, the Beat Cop will “correctly” confirm a true role-claim 1/2 of the time. The other 1/2 of the time he will still “incorrectly” confirm it _1/2r_ of the time, where _r_ is the number of roles. (He gets a “wrong” result but then picks the right role randomly out of\* r\* roles.) Multiply both of these by the probability of a true role-claim, _c_. This gives us a total of c\*/2 + c/2r \* “true” confirmations. This simplifies to _c(r+1)/2r_. The Beat Cop will “confirm” a false role-claim if these conditions are met: the claim is false (\*1 - c), \* the Cop misses his ID (1/2), and randomly picks the claimed role (1/r). This multiplies out to (_1-c)/2r._ We can cancel the common factor \*1/2r \* from both these results, giving us a true positive: false positive ratio of _c(r+1):(1-c)._ Suppose there are 7 roles in the game. Then we have the following illustrative numbers: If the stats show that one out of two role-claims tend to be true, the Cop’s check-out ratio will be 1/2(8):1/2, or 8:1. If the stats show that only one out of four role-claims tend to be true, the Cop’s check-out ratio will be 1/4(8):3/4, or 8:3. Conclusion: If we have confidence that a claim of Cop is believable and that, say, true role-claims represent at least a quarter of all role-claims, a Cop-backed role-claim is much more likely to be true than either a random Cop investigation or an unverified role-claim, and also much more likely to be true than not. I suggest we therefore consider carefully the possibility that **Aguecheek** ’s role-claim _is_ correct, for his claimed results are reasonably likely, although his claim that **Queuing** is the SK must still be viewed as probably incorrect (for the reasons previously stated). Btw I think the earlier formula needs a little tweaking, but it is still broadly correct. (It neglected the possibility that a Cop might correctly but accidentally pick a player’s actual role.) Open to peer-review. ---
**Author:** ![hocow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hocow/32/4112_2.png) [@hocow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hocow)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2007, 11:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2869 "2007-04-18T11:24:38Z")
Well, I was going to say that I trusted **Queuing** in the post, but I see that a “cop” has determined that he is the SK. “Cop” is in quotations because we can’t have that confirmed. On second thought, I will still trust **Queuing** for now. This is based on assumptions I have had throughout the game, since Day 2(?) where it seemed like he and **Gaudarene** were on the same boat, team-wise. That, and his analysis and defense of me [here.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8477533&postcount=2850) Also, I understand where he’s coming from with the math argument (not to bring that up again). For our purposes it only matters that the cops are right half of the time and wrong half of the time. FWIW, I understand how the probabilities aid analysis of the cops, but the way I see it, it’s still just a game. No offense at all to those who have done the maths, but I think qualitative analysis is more important that quantitative. And I picked up on the “ho-ly cow” thing too, but not as a crumb. That’s what my name is short for so it stuck out to me personally. **Malacandra** has been pinging my FOS for a while now, as I have stated before. However, his (\<– look, I remembered :)) recent fall-out with **Queuing** leads me to believe that they are on opposite sides. Since I trust **Queuing/** at the mopment I’m gonna go ahead and vote Malacandra. I realize that this will come back to bite me in the ass if Queuing turns out to be scum, but I’ll take my chances and deal with that scenario when and if I need to. ---
**Author:** ![Malacandra](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Malacandra](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malacandra)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2007, 11:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2870 "2007-04-18T11:34:11Z")
[QUOTE=hocow] For our purposes it only matters that the cops are right half of the time and wrong half of the time. [/QUOTE] OFFS. :smack: :smack: :smack: :smack: :smack: ---
**Author:** ![brewha](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/91b2a8/32.png) [@brewha](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brewha)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2007, 11:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2871 "2007-04-18T11:52:46Z")
I was entirely content with voting Aguecheek today. That is, until the claim. Screw it, even if he is the cop (which I doubt), the beat cops haven’t much of a help anyway. Vote Aguecheek ---
**Author:** ![Rysto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ecccb3/32.png) [@Rysto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rysto)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2007, 12:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2872 "2007-04-18T12:37:46Z")
**Aguecheek** , in which posts did you breadcrumb your results? If you can’t point to breadcrumbs like **pimaspinner** did, then I don’t believe your claim. ---
**Author:** ![Kat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/b19c9b/32.png) [@Kat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kat)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2007, 12:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2873 "2007-04-18T12:47:51Z")
Okay, I’m not gonna be online any more until after the Day’s end (it’s 10:30 am today, right?), and I don’t have time to do any more analysis before I leave for work. I’m with **Rysto** and **Pygmy Rugger** here, and I was strongly leaning towards this vote when I got back online this morning. And if enough people unvote him later, it won’t really matter if my vote is left all alone against him, so vote Aguecheek. ---
**Author:** ![Queuing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/90ced4/32.png) [@Queuing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Queuing)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2007, 12:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2874 "2007-04-18T12:52:00Z")
Neat-o, another role claim. And guess what? For what it is worth I was going to analysis Aguecheek’s post today. So I already have them sorted out and everything. Lets see if you have left any crumbs. I for one do not believe you and think you came up with this idea because Malacandra suggested he thought you were the cop. I will report any findings shortly. ---
**Author:** ![Rysto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ecccb3/32.png) [@Rysto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rysto)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2007, 12:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2875 "2007-04-18T12:52:55Z")
Is it 10:30 am? I thought that it was around 2pm Pacific. But then, we know how good I am at keeping track of the end-time. ---
**Author:** ![brewha](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/91b2a8/32.png) [@brewha](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brewha)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2007, 12:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2876 "2007-04-18T12:53:23Z")
39 minutes to go and ten people have yet to cast a vote… ---
**Author:** ![Queuing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/90ced4/32.png) [@Queuing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Queuing)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2007, 12:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2877 "2007-04-18T12:54:14Z")
10:30 am PAC, so we still have like 4.5 hours. ---
**Author:** ![Rysto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ecccb3/32.png) [@Rysto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rysto)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2007, 12:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2878 "2007-04-18T12:58:17Z")
Ah, damn, I had hoped that the day would be ending after my exam. Well, if **Aguecheek** can’t show breadcrumbs by 11:30, I’m going to have to vote for him. By the way, guys, I’m afraid I have some bad news. I’m going to have to be away from the boards for a week starting today. That means that I’ll likely miss all of the next Day. If you guys aren’t ok with this, then **NAF** can find a replacement for me. ---
**Author:** ![cowgirl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/8c91f0/32.png) [@cowgirl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cowgirl)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2007, 1:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2879 "2007-04-18T13:24:45Z")
Vote Count as I see it: **Aguecheek** - 6 - StarvingButStrong, Menocchio, sturmhauke, Pygmy Rugger, brewha, Kat \*\*Queuing \*\* - 3 - Aguecheek, Fretful Porpentine, ArizonaTeach \*\*Malacandra \*\* - 2 - Queuing, hocow \*\*brewha \*\* - 1 - monkeymensch \*\*hocow \*\* - 1 - Pleonast **Pygmy Rugger** - 1 - storyteller0910 How did Aguecheek get up there in votes so fast? Why is everyone voting for her/him? I’m confused and a bit suspicious. You Ag voters, what is your reasoning again? I’m not doubting necessarily, just that of all the folks above, Aguecheek didn’t really jump out as scummy, and I don’t understand the source of the bandwagon. I am still quite suspicious of **Pygmy Rugger** (nothing personal, my friend … I used to play a little rugger myself). Too late to vote for him at this point, but I think his voting for Aguecheek makes Ag look more townie to me. Queueing’s got me totally confuzzled. I will vote **Malacandra** , because I want my vote to count today, and he looks the scummiest of the top three of that list. ---
**Author:** ![brewha](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/91b2a8/32.png) [@brewha](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brewha)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2007, 1:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/2880 "2007-04-18T13:28:49Z")
[QUOTE=Queuing] 10:30 am PAC, so we still have like 4.5 hours. [/QUOTE] Eh, I suck at time conversions. Why don’t we just do it in Zulu? Ok, so noon-thirty my time. We still got a little over 4 hours. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565.md?page=143) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565.md?page=145)