# Werewolf a game Part 2 (this time with MAFIA!) **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [March 26, 2007, 4:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565 "2007-03-26T16:47:06Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 17
**Author:** ![chrisk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6de8d8/32.png) [@chrisk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chrisk)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2007, 8:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/321 "2007-03-28T20:44:35Z")
[QUOTE=storyteller0910] I definitely agree with you on **Chrisk** - in spite of his unaccountable dislike for mozzerella cheese - in particular because I don’t think he’s _actually_ claiming to be anything at all, just posing a hypothetical, and suggesting that everyone else do the same. [/QUOTE] I do not have a dislike of mozzerella cheese in general. I’m quite fond of mozzerella cheese pizza. On my spaghetti? Not so much. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2007, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/322 "2007-03-28T20:52:31Z")
[QUOTE=storyteller0910] But **Enfant Terrible** is the only person so far who has really pinged my suspicious-O-meter, mostly because of \ [/QUOTE] Hmm. I second this. And since I’m shooting from the hip, I’ll go ahead and shoot: Unvote **kivvik** ; vote **Enfant Terrible**. _I trust: storyteller0910, Blaster Master, Chrisk, Gadarene. I mistrust: Enfant Terrible, Queuing._ I mistrust Q for his proposal to remove ET from the lynching list. My trust is list is those who I agree with so far. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Blaster\_Master](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/cab0a1/32.png) [@Blaster\_Master](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blaster_Master)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2007, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/323 "2007-03-28T20:52:42Z")
[QUOTE=Menocchio] Vote Sturmhauke He, as well as MadtheSwine, had masterful moves last game. Those two, along with dnooman, would be first to go were I scum. Is his survival really \*that \* suspicious? No. The scum may not have been as impressed by him as I was, or they may have chosen randomly. But it’s a strike against him, which is more than I’m feeling for any other player right now. (Save Mad, but I want to back up Queing since I had the same impulse and he’s picking up flack for it). [/QUOTE] I don’t think that’s good enough reason. As has been noted, all three deaths last night were of players from the previous game, and two of them (I think) had important roles. Perhaps the mafia left him alive precisely for the reason that they thought people would be suspicious, and it’s also no surprise he passed the SK and VIG because of his excellent play last game. Either way, I can’t imagine that he’ll get killed tonight, because if he isn’t mafia, because of his previous experience casting suspicion, they’ll let him live to draw suspicion away from them and if he’s not mafia, they’ll probably wait at least one or two nights to whack him when he starts to become a thorn in their side… assuming he’s not mafia, of course. ---
**Author:** ![NAF1138](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/naf1138/32/3245_2.png) [@NAF1138](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NAF1138)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2007, 8:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/324 "2007-03-28T20:53:14Z")
I am planning on posting a vote count EITHER if there is a player with more than 7 votes, OR once every 24 hours if no one has gotten than many votes in a 24 hour period. But feel free to request one before then if you guys feel you need it. ---
**Author:** ![MonkeyMensch](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/82dd89/32.png) [@MonkeyMensch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MonkeyMensch)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2007, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/325 "2007-03-28T20:54:35Z")
Ok. A little analysis on game composition. At the end of the rules NAF says, “because this game is SO big…” I’m going with numbers up near the maxima for each of the roles. [QUOTE=NAF] Mafia - There may be as many as 10 of them. [/quote] I’d say 9-10. > [@](#): > > Godfather - The head mafia member. You know there’s a Godfather just like there’s a Santa Claus. [quote] The Millers- There can be up to 2 millers. [quote] Maybe 0-2 Millers, more below. > [@](#): > > Cops - There can be up to 3 cops. Given the high kill rate of this game the future’s pretty dim without all 3 there. I’d say 2 Beat Cops and a Detective. > [@](#): > > Serial Killer Definitely present. > [@](#): > > Vigilante Definitely present. > [@](#): > > Masons - There may be up to 6 masons. Say there were 5 or 6 originally, now 4 or 5. > [@](#): > > The Doctor There’s gotta be a doc. > [@](#): > > Guardian Angel Maybe, maybe not. Since NAF said that not all of the roles need appear I’d say the most likely to be missing are the GA, followed by the Millers. The GA is a one shot deal and the lack of protection for one night wouldn’t hurt too bad. As for the Millers I having trouble seeing where their blocking is really crucial unless they can block a killing and get that info out. Probably there’s 2 but I wouldn’t be surprised at none, neither. So out of 35 remaining that leaves 25ish citizens, 1 SK, and the rest mafiosi. ---
**Author:** ![CaerieD](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/da6949/32.png) [@CaerieD](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CaerieD)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2007, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/326 "2007-03-28T20:54:47Z")
Trust: **Menocchio**. Distrust: **Enfant Terrible**. There are just lots of different things that are adding up to make me suspicious. I’m somewhat suspicious of **Autolycus** , too, but I can’t tell if he’s scum and baiting or just really sadistic. ---
**Author:** ![Queuing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/90ced4/32.png) [@Queuing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Queuing)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2007, 8:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/327 "2007-03-28T20:59:00Z")
Since this seems to be the flavour in this game: Don’t Trust: **Sturmhauke, Gaderene, pimaspinner** Trust: **Pleonast, Chrisk** Thats about all I got. ---
**Author:** ![Gadarene](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Gadarene](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gadarene)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2007, 9:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/328 "2007-03-28T21:03:43Z")
> [@](#): > > Don’t Trust: Sturmhauke, Gaderene, pimaspinner Will it make you trust me more or less if I point out that you misspelled my name? 🙂 As for me, initial impressions: Trust: **Pleonast** , **MonkeyMensch** , **Rysto** , **Blaster Master** , **storyteller0910** Mistrust: **chrisk** , **sturmhauke** , **Autolycus** , **Enfant Terrible** I’m weighing the rest of you. You weigh a lot. ---
**Author:** ![glee](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/b5a626/32.png) [@glee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/glee)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2007, 9:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/329 "2007-03-28T21:09:24Z")
[QUOTE=Smitty] It takes 10 to lynch. You are in no danger at this point. As I said, it was a random vote, and throwing out random votes at the beginning of the game is a very common thing. You shouldn’t take offense. Unless you have something to hide… [/QUOTE] Ah, but the Chinese have a saying: ‘in a lynching of 10 votes, the first vote is the most important’! I realise we have very little to go on at this point, but wouldn’t analysing posts be slightly better than randomness? > [@Pleonast](#): > > … Also, the Detective (or anyone else) could intentionally give false info, to mislead the Mafia. Yes, but the whole point of the idea is that if the Detective is killed, we can lynch his suspects confidently. Otherwise where’s the benefit? > [@Blaster Master](#): > > Well, let’s take a look at what kind of numbers a beat cop would get, first, we consider the known roles in the game: scum (includes potential millers), townie (potentially includes gf), doctor, ga, cop, vig, sk, mason. That means, if he’s going to be wrong, there’s a 1/7 chance for each of the other roles to be chosen for the individual. > > Thus, if the result is vanilla townie, then it’s clearly more likely that the individual is a townie because he was either right (1/2 \* 100%) or he was wrong (1/2 \* ~14%), thus, if he was a townie, he has a 50% chance of showing up as one, but if he was something else, he only has about a 7% chance of having shown up as a townie. Further, of those 7 other roles he may have been, clearly most of them (doctor, ga, cop, mason, vig) are in the favor of the town. IOW, if someone shows up as a townie from a beat cop, he’s mostly safe and, all other things being equal, should be treated with less suspicion. That’s excellent! And if two beat cops (or one beat cop asking twice) get the same result, then it is very likely to be true (because the odds of two false answers being the same are very low). ---
**Author:** ![MadTheSwine](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9fc29f/32.png) [@MadTheSwine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MadTheSwine)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2007, 9:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/330 "2007-03-28T21:09:32Z")
[QUOTE=CaerieD] Trust: **Menocchio**. Distrust: **Enfant Terrible**. There are just lots of different things that are adding up to make me suspicious. I’m somewhat suspicious of **Autolycus** , too, but I can’t tell if he’s scum and baiting or just really sadistic. [/QUOTE] You trust **Menocchio** for what reason? Two more scum here folks. Kill them when I am dead. ---
**Author:** ![Blaster\_Master](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/cab0a1/32.png) [@Blaster\_Master](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blaster_Master)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2007, 9:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/331 "2007-03-28T21:10:59Z")
[QUOTE=MonkeyMensch] Since NAF said that not all of the roles need appear I’d say the most likely to be missing are the GA, followed by the Millers. The GA is a one shot deal and the lack of protection for one night wouldn’t hurt too bad. As for the Millers I having trouble seeing where their blocking is really crucial unless they can block a killing and get that info out. Probably there’s 2 but I wouldn’t be surprised at none, neither. So out of 35 remaining that leaves 25ish citizens, 1 SK, and the rest mafiosi. [/QUOTE] If I interpretted what **NAF** said, if a miller targets a mafia, and there are x mafia members, then the miller has a 1/x chance of preventing the mafia strike that night. At this point, I largely agree with your analysis, and think the GA and miller roles are the least likely to be present, except I was leaning more toward the miller role and less toward the GA role. What I’m most worried about is the miller blocking the doctor or cops; I’m also worried if they accidently block the SK or VIG, because that’s one less pro-town kill. If the miller does block a mafia, and there’s 9 or 10 mafia, that still means there’s about an 90% chance that the mafia kill will go through. Thus, at this point, it doesn’t look like the miller role is going to be useful until we have a stronger sense of who is mafia so they can target them, otherwise, a random miller target seems to be more hurtful to the town. Similarly, the GA role is only going to be useful for later in the game when a key role feels compelled to out himself and needs protection. But it will also lend itself to a great amount of abuse by the mafia, if one of them can claim it to try to thwart the doctor from “wasting” his protection on that key role. IOW, at this point, it doesn’t really matter if either of those roles exist or not, because if the miller is using his power, he’s more likely to hurt the town, and if the GA uses it, he’s wasting it. ---
**Author:** ![Hockey\_Monkey](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/a183cd/32.png) [@Hockey\_Monkey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hockey_Monkey)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2007, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/332 "2007-03-28T21:13:26Z")
At this point in the game I… _Don’t Trust:_ The whole lot of you’s guys! 😛 I’m pointing my FOS at **FlyingCowOfDoom** , but I’m not ready to toss out an official vote just yet. No particular reason other than a FlyingCowOfDoom has got to be bad right? Right? ---
**Author:** ![Winston\_Smith](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/e95f7d/32.png) [@Winston\_Smith](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Winston_Smith)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2007, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/333 "2007-03-28T21:14:31Z")
[QUOTE=MadTheSwine] Trust: **Rysto** Mistrust: **sturmhauke** (Strange he wasn’t killed,I would have voted to kill him if i were Mafia) **Winston Smith** (I think the Mafia left me alone for Winstons benefit,had I been killed,Winston dies) **chrisk** (Wants information) **Sub Plank** (strange post) [/QUOTE] That’s the second time you’ve steered suspicion in my direction in two pages, pisan. Do it again, and I’l have your kneecaps broken. Capice? 😃 Seriously, though, what possible reason could you have for being suspicious of _me_? ---
**Author:** ![MonkeyMensch](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/82dd89/32.png) [@MonkeyMensch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MonkeyMensch)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2007, 9:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/334 "2007-03-28T21:18:58Z")
[QUOTE=Blaster Master] If I interpretted what **NAF** said, if a miller targets a mafia, and there are x mafia members, then the miller has a 1/x chance of preventing the mafia strike that night. [/QUOTE] Thank you. I remember reading that rule, not understanding it and promptly putting it out of mind. It makes sense now. ---
**Author:** ![CaerieD](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/da6949/32.png) [@CaerieD](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CaerieD)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2007, 9:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/335 "2007-03-28T21:27:25Z")
[QUOTE=MadTheSwine] You trust **Menocchio** for what reason? Two more scum here folks. Kill them when I am dead. [/QUOTE] Suspicious that you’d jump on this when no one else is giving reasons for why they trust who they trust, isn’t it? Planning cement shoes for us, are you? I trust Menocchio mostly because I agree with the thinking that he’s shown to this point, which has been a decent strategy on behalf of the Citizens. ---
**Author:** ![Blaster\_Master](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/cab0a1/32.png) [@Blaster\_Master](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blaster_Master)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2007, 9:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/336 "2007-03-28T21:27:32Z")
[QUOTE=glee] That’s excellent! And if two beat cops (or one beat cop asking twice) get the same result, then it is very likely to be true (because the odds of two false answers being the same are very low). [/QUOTE] To correct my numbers, if a beat cop investigates a vanilla townie, then there’s a 56.25% probability that he shows up as a vanilla townie (50% for being right, and 1/8 of 50% chance if it’s random). Similarly, if he investigates a non-vanilla townie (say a mafia), there’s only a 6.25% chance that he’ll show up as a townie, but a 56.25% chance that he’ll show up as mafia. That is, if a beat cop shows up someone as a vanilla townie, especially since there’s so many of them, it’s highly unlikely that they’re anything else, it’s only if they show up as something unexpected like VIG or SK (where there’s only one) that it is suspicious and warrants another night of investigating. To a beat cop, if someone shows up SK two nights in a row, then he almost certainly is because the chance of that if he isn’t is less than 0.4% ---
**Author:** ![Blaster\_Master](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/cab0a1/32.png) [@Blaster\_Master](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blaster_Master)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2007, 9:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/337 "2007-03-28T21:35:13Z")
[QUOTE=MadTheSwine] Trust: **Rysto** Mistrust: **sturmhauke** (Strange he wasn’t killed,I would have voted to kill him if i were Mafia) **Winston Smith** (I think the Mafia left me alone for Winstons benefit,had I been killed,Winston dies) **chrisk** (Wants information) **Sub Plank** (strange post) [/QUOTE] At this point, I can understand the reasoning behind your mistrusts (even if I don’t agree with them all), but your mistrust of **Winston Smith** is puzzling to me. How would leaving you alone benefit Winston? And if it will, who’s to say you won’t be targetted tonight? ---
**Author:** ![Aguecheek](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/a9adbd/32.png) [@Aguecheek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aguecheek)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2007, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/338 "2007-03-28T22:08:23Z")
Jeezus, this is moving way faster than I’d thought. Um. You’re all suspicious. Nothing else I can do right now. I’ll be able to reread and make more concrete opinions later on tonight, though. ---
**Author:** ![cowgirl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/8c91f0/32.png) [@cowgirl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cowgirl)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2007, 10:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/339 "2007-03-28T22:39:43Z")
I can’t help but noticing that the FOS is only being pointed at people who are speaking up and providing analysis. So it seems that piping up is a risky move. This of course is what results in the Lynch-the-Lurker strategy that didn’t seem to go over so well last time. We also saw that the citizens who did post good analyses and opinions were targeted at night. So can someone help out the newbie here? What’s to be gained for a Citizen, for a Mafia, and for the other roles, to pipe up and provide analysis and opinion at this time? ---
**Author:** ![Rysto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ecccb3/32.png) [@Rysto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rysto)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2007, 10:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/340 "2007-03-28T22:48:31Z")
If nobody provides analysis, the Town has nothing to base its decisions on, and we’re dead meat. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565.md?page=16) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565.md?page=18)