# Werewolf a game Part 2 (this time with MAFIA!) **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [March 26, 2007, 4:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565 "2007-03-26T16:47:06Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 48
**Author:** ![Gadarene](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Gadarene](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gadarene)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2007, 1:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/941 "2007-04-02T13:04:51Z")
> [@](#): > > Because it would seem to me that you’ve changed your mind about who you think is the most absolutely definitely certain to be scum about six times in two game days, and that seems… odd. Oh, really? Care to show me where in the world I expressed definitiveness about someone else being scum before this? Aside from my woefully misguided vote against **Enfant Terrible** , of course. > [@](#): > > You seem to be fairly cheerful about tossing suspicion in every conceivable direction without much actual reasoning behind it. Would you care to elucidate what about my reasoning at #854 strikes you as faulty? Well, for one, you’re defending everyone I have suspicions about, and you’re casting doubt on several people I’m inching toward trust of. You also use a metric ton of specious reasoning, but I’m not going to go back right now and pull that up, 'cause I’m late for work. 😛 Finally, you’re expressing a fair degree of confidence that _I’m_ scum, and I know I’m not. (Unless I read the PM from **NAF** incorrectly.) And you’re doing it in a fairly aggressive way. Which, you know, would tend to ping one’s radar. I stand by my near-certainty that the three of you are Mafia. If I’m proven wrong, so be it, but I don’t think I will be. ---
**Author:** ![FlyingCowOfDoom](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/flyingcowofdoom/32/21776_2.png) [@FlyingCowOfDoom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlyingCowOfDoom)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2007, 1:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/942 "2007-04-02T13:06:29Z")
Here’s my count of the votes: Pleonast - 6 (Fern Forest, Fretful Porpentine, Gadarene, Kat, Lakai, Suburban Plankton) Blaster Master - 4 (brewha, hocow, pimaspinner, Queuing) Queuing - 4 (kivvik, nesta, StarvingButStrong, Zuma) Pygmy Rugger - 3 (FlyingCowOfDoom, MadTheSwine, Menocchio) chrisk/JSexton - 2 (glee, Pygmy Rugger) brewha - 1 (MonkeyMensch) Fern Forest - 1 (Winston Smith) FlyingCowOfDoom - 1 (storyteller0910) hocow - 1 (Malacandra) Menocchio - 1 (Autolycus) Rysto - 1 (sturmhauke) **Fern Forest** , why don’t we go ahead and let people decide their own votes? Winston is right; you do talk too much. On that note, if any of you decide to change your votes, let’s all be careful not to lynch **Pleonast** until we’re good and ready. –FCOD ---
**Author:** ![glee](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/b5a626/32.png) [@glee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/glee)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2007, 1:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/943 "2007-04-02T13:07:04Z")
[QUOTE=kivvik] Those are the ones where I _think_ there might be some hints. How you read them is up to you. [/QUOTE] This game is difficult enough without **Autolycus** posting masses of stuff with a few obscure words that leads you to ‘think’ there ‘might’ be a ‘hint’. The only chance the Town has is to give clear reasons for suspicion. > [@Fern Forest](#): > > That would mean that \*\*glee, Pygmy Rugger \*\* and \*\*Winston Smith \*\* need to come up with new votes as well. OK, I see your logic. I think both Pleonast and Blaster Master have given good analysis. Pygmy Rugger made a mistake about me apologising for my absence and I trust Menocchio because of CaerieD. unvote ChrisK vote Pygmy Rugger ---
**Author:** ![Gadarene](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Gadarene](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gadarene)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2007, 1:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/944 "2007-04-02T13:14:53Z")
You’re on my list, **glee**. ---
**Author:** ![Winston\_Smith](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/e95f7d/32.png) [@Winston\_Smith](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Winston_Smith)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2007, 1:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/945 "2007-04-02T13:23:09Z")
[QUOTE=Gadarene] You’re on my list, **glee**. [/QUOTE] Lighten up, Francis. 😛 ---
**Author:** ![Gadarene](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Gadarene](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gadarene)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2007, 1:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/946 "2007-04-02T13:25:42Z")
😕 Chill, Winston. ---
**Author:** ![StarvingButStrong](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/starvingbutstrong/32/335_2.png) [@StarvingButStrong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/StarvingButStrong)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2007, 1:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/947 "2007-04-02T13:31:50Z")
I’ve lost track. When does this day end (barring ten votes, I mean)? Also, will shortly be heading out, so doen’t expect posts from me until this evening. ---
**Author:** ![Gadarene](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Gadarene](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gadarene)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2007, 1:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/948 "2007-04-02T13:32:34Z")
I assume, by the way, that it’s better to lynch _somebody_ rather than _nobody_ before the day ends? ---
**Author:** ![storyteller0910](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecae2f/32.png) [@storyteller0910](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/storyteller0910)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2007, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/949 "2007-04-02T13:36:27Z")
[QUOTE=Gadarene] Oh, really? Care to show me where in the world I expressed definitiveness about someone else being scum before this? Aside from my woefully misguided vote against **Enfant Terrible** , of course. [/QUOTE] You know what, after a bit of research, you’re right, and I withdraw the assertion. I believe I may have confused you with another poster. My apologies. I do think you have a remarkable tendency to jump around without explaining why. Way, way back at post #302, you tell **Pleonast** that you like his idea of trust lists. Then, at post #666, you again express support for him. Then, suddenly, and for no reason that I can tell, you’re casting suspicion on him at #816 - after others have started moving in that direction. Similarly, at #439 you agree with my reasoning - specious? - that **sturmhauke** is likely town. Then, a Day later, at #831, you say: [QUOTE=Gadarene] I agree with Lakai that sturmhauke is potentially very suspicious, although I’d rather string up Pleonast or Blaster Master first to see if the network unravels that way. [/QUOTE] So between 302 and 831, you’ve gone from agreeing with **Pleonast** about his trust lists and agreeing with me that **sturmhauke** is probably a townie to casting suspicion on both of them, and never (that I can see) have you explained yourself. Once again, the primary difference seems to be that by the time 831 rolled around, other people had become suspicious so you did, too. Near as I can tell, the primary reason for chasing **Pleonast** seems to be his trust lists, which you _supported at the time._ Now you want to string him up because his idea, which you and many others liked, didn’t work out? Then, at #686, you come out stating that **CaerieD** ’s breadcrumb was probably **Blaster Master** and not **Menocchio,** but again offer no _reason_ for thinking this other than that you “agree” with **Queing** on the subject. We obviously have no sure way of knowing _what_ **CaerieD** was trying to tell us, but it seems much more _likely_, for the reasons I laid out in my last long-ish post, that her first night target was **Menocchio**. Otherwise we are to believe that she: (1) randomly targeted a townie with an unfamiliar name; who (2) just happened to be scum; and then (3) left a clear distracting breadcrumb for **Menocchio** while hiding her **Blaster Master** breadcrumb behind a bunch of other “mistrust” statements. This seems spectacularly unlikely to me; if you disagree, have the courtesy to explain _why_. Otherwise it looks like you’re seeking evidence that best fits your conclusion, as opposed to the other way around. All around, your posting history here has the look of someone who gloms onto someone to suspect once you are convinced you have supporters in your suspicion, rather than because you have any _reason_ for it. > [@](#): > > Well, for one, you’re defending everyone I have suspicions about, and you’re casting doubt on several people I’m inching toward trust of. That’s fair. > [@](#): > > You also use a metric ton of specious reasoning, but I’m not going to go back right now and pull that up, 'cause I’m late for work. 😛 Bad form. If you’re going to criticize my arguments, you need to do better than this. And my reasoning might not always be perfect, but it’s out there for everyone to see. Your posts generally just toss suspicion around without explaining anything at all. > [@](#): > > Finally, you’re expressing a fair degree of confidence that _I’m_ scum, and I know I’m not. (Unless I read the PM from **NAF** incorrectly.) And you’re doing it in a fairly aggressive way. Which, you know, would tend to ping one’s radar. I should state for the record that I have _not_ expressed confidence that you are scum. I have stated that I find you to be suspicious, and I find you to be even more suspicious having read your last few posts, but my vote is elsewhere at the moment for a reason. ---
**Author:** ![zuma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/e9c0ed/32.png) [@zuma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zuma)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2007, 1:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/950 "2007-04-02T13:37:58Z")
Yeah… I think the deadline is wednesday at 4 p.m. monday evening seems like a good time to put someone over the edge and demand a role claim. this gives them a chance by early tuesday morning to mount a defense/role-claim, and a day + to analyze it. I think all the vote-leaders right now should be prepared to be logged in here and mounting a defense late monday night/overnight/early tuesday morning. ---
**Author:** ![zuma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/e9c0ed/32.png) [@zuma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zuma)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2007, 1:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/951 "2007-04-02T13:47:17Z")
I’m also liking storeyteller’s analysis and observations on gadarene, and observations throughout the game (Gadarene is another who casts doubt on the caerieD list). I almost listed gadarene in my last big analysis, but I wanted to go back and analyze their posts before commenting. Storyteller has struck me as quite pro-town for a while, and gadarene as suspiscious. We seem to be drawing some lines now, which is good for future analysis. I’m on storyteller’s side and not on gadarene’s side. ---
**Author:** ![hocow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hocow/32/4112_2.png) [@hocow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hocow)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2007, 1:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/952 "2007-04-02T13:53:48Z")
[QUOTE=pimaspinner] **Pygmy Rugger** did say _IIRC_. Maybe he didn’t. He also voiced reservations about \*\*Blaster Master \*\* a little before that post. \*\*MadTheSwine \*\* may have just picked up on an honest mistake. \*\*FCOD \*\* jumped right in to get the wheels of the wagon turning. Since I think \*\*FCOD \*\* is scum (as does **storyteller0910** ), it leads me to believe that \*\*Pygmy \*\* is innocent. \*\*Menocchio \*\* has also chimed in with a vote for **Pygmy** , and now if I have counted correctly, he is up to 4 votes. **Pygmy** , please come defend yourself. [/QUOTE] This post caught my eye. This appears to be a not-so-subtle way of deflecting suspicion on **Pygmy** , in a way that suggests you are in the know about his true role. As I said earlier, could be good team, could be bad team. However, **Pygmy** was a bit overzealous with his defense, which has me leaning towards scum. Only time will tell I suppose. [QUOTE=Fern Forest] hocow is to cute not to kill. [/QUOTE] Thanks..I think.. 😕 ---
**Author:** ![Gadarene](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Gadarene](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gadarene)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2007, 1:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/953 "2007-04-02T13:59:57Z")
> [@](#): > > I’m also liking storeyteller’s analysis and observations on gadarene, and observations throughout the game (Gadarene is another who casts doubt on the caerieD list). I almost listed gadarene in my last big analysis, but I wanted to go back and analyze their posts before commenting. > > Storyteller has struck me as quite pro-town for a while, and gadarene as suspiscious. We seem to be drawing some lines now, which is good for future analysis. I’m on storyteller’s side and not on gadarene’s side. Good to know. 🙂 So: **Pleonast** , **Blaster Master** , **storyteller0910** , **sturmhauke** , **glee** , **zuma**. Anyone else want to out themselves as scum? ---
**Author:** ![Suburban\_Plankton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suburban_plankton/32/219_2.png) [@Suburban\_Plankton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Suburban_Plankton)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2007, 2:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/954 "2007-04-02T14:01:03Z")
[QUOTE=Gadarene] I assume, by the way, that it’s better to lynch _somebody_ rather than _nobody_ before the day ends? [/QUOTE] We can’t fail to lynch someone. If nobody has gotten 10 votes in order to start the countdown, then the leading vote-getter at “sunset” gets lynched. If two (or more) people are tied, \*\*NAF1138 \*\*will choose at random from those names. **Fern Forest** , I think you should let people vote for whomever they want. It is not required that we be unanimous in our decision, and at this point in the game it’s not desirable either. All we have to go on at this point is a very short voting history, a single “breadcrumb” from the Detective, and a whole lot of guesses. If we discourage people from voting with their heads (or stomachs, hearts, or spleens) and try to make them vote “with the town” then we’ll just end up lynching citizens day after day. I happen to think that \*\*Pleonast \*\*is scum, which is why I voted for him. But if I thought that **Arizona Teach** was a better target, I would vote for him. And if the whole town told me I was wrong, I would not change my vote if I thought it was correct. Hopefully I am right, and Pleonast \*is \*scum. Then we can follow up his death with several more and get the town back on track. But if I’m wrong, then I’m going to look for someone who disagreed with me for clues, because my strategy isn’t working. If everyone took your advice and switched their votes in order to be “popular”, then we would have nothing to fall back on. We need to vote for whomever _we_ think is scum (or the Vig or SK if you think those are more important targets). Some of us will be proven right, some will be proven wrong, and some will be proven liars. That’ the only way the town gets information. If we vote because somebody else told us to, the town gets nothing. ---
**Author:** ![zuma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/e9c0ed/32.png) [@zuma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zuma)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2007, 2:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/955 "2007-04-02T14:04:02Z")
haha. I’ll put you on my Axis of Evil list Gadarene. Everyone who steered suspicion away from chrisk and cast doubt on CaerieD’s breadcrumb is appearing scummy to me. ---
**Author:** ![zuma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/e9c0ed/32.png) [@zuma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zuma)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2007, 2:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/956 "2007-04-02T14:10:39Z")
[QUOTE=Gadarene] Good to know. 🙂 So: **Pleonast** , **Blaster Master** , **storyteller0910** , **sturmhauke** , **glee** , **zuma**. Anyone else want to out themselves as scum? [/QUOTE] And what the fuck did storyteller, sturmhauke, or glee do that put them on your list? You, against all reason, chose to doubt the obvious breadcrumb by CaerieD, and are still trying to avert attention from the chrisk/JSexton foible. Tomorrow will be quite telling, when a few more roles are revealed. ---
**Author:** ![Winston\_Smith](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/e95f7d/32.png) [@Winston\_Smith](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Winston_Smith)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2007, 2:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/957 "2007-04-02T14:22:54Z")
> [@](#): > > Tomorrow will be quite telling, when a few more roles are revealed. If we ever get to tomorrow. You folks couldn’t organize piss-up in a brewery. ---
**Author:** ![Santo\_Rugger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e95f7d/32.png) [@Santo\_Rugger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Santo_Rugger)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2007, 2:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/958 "2007-04-02T14:24:45Z")
[QUOTE=glee] \ Pygmy Rugger made a mistake about me apologising for my absence and I trust Menocchio because of CaerieD. unvote ChrisK vote Pygmy Rugger [/QUOTE] The theory **MtS** proposed was that I read that you and two others said they were going to be away in the Mafia thread. So, by voting for me, you’re saying _you’re_ Mafia, and posted to them last night that you were going to be away? :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![Gadarene](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Gadarene](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gadarene)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2007, 2:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/959 "2007-04-02T14:56:08Z")
**zuma:** > [@](#): > > You, against all reason, chose to doubt the obvious breadcrumb by CaerieD, and are still trying to avert attention from the chrisk/JSexton foible. What chrisk/JSexton foible? I have no idea what you’re talking about. In any event, and for reasons I’ve explained over the last couple pages, I’m very dubious that **Menocchio** is town. His reasons for wanting to take out **Auto** and **chrisk** are positively idiotic, particularly when he rationalizes them by saying, as paraphrased, “hey, we’re not that behind anyway, it’s perfectly fine if we target these guys [who even if they’re Mafia won’t reveal any important information] and it turns out they’re town.” And my doubt that **Menocchio** is town makes me **strongly** doubt that he was **CaerieD’s** breadcrumb—which, combined with my general large-scale suspicion of **Blaster Master** , points the FOS square on him. Has anyone figured out why **cowgirl** would have been targeted? Was it the spreadsheet? ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2007, 3:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/960 "2007-04-02T15:00:48Z")
Holy cow, the sheer volume of this thread is nigh impossible to digest. I’m probably hopelessly out of date. But that won’t keep me from voting **Queuing**. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565.md?page=47) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565.md?page=49)