# Werewolf a game Part 2 (this time with MAFIA!) **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [March 26, 2007, 4:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565 "2007-03-26T16:47:06Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 52
**Author:** ![Rysto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ecccb3/32.png) [@Rysto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rysto)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2007, 6:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/1021 "2007-04-02T18:40:15Z")
Guys, can we not lynch anybody until **JSexton** has had a chance to post? ---
**Author:** ![Hockey\_Monkey](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/a183cd/32.png) [@Hockey\_Monkey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hockey_Monkey)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2007, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/1022 "2007-04-02T18:43:28Z")
[QUOTE=zuma] Yes, I think chrisk fucked up big time and I want him, or Queuing, or prima to have to role-claim tonight. [/QUOTE] I’ve been thinking more about this statement, and particularly why may name would be in it. Does anyone else find it odd that **zuma** would want me to role-claim when I am in no danger at all of being lynched? With not even one vote cast against me? Either **zuma** has his panties all in a bunch over nothing or he’s scum who thinks I have some role and he’s trying to out me. Sorry to disappoint you. I think he just outed himself. ---
**Author:** ![Blaster\_Master](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/cab0a1/32.png) [@Blaster\_Master](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blaster_Master)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2007, 6:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/1023 "2007-04-02T18:44:14Z")
[QUOTE=Queuing] I am wondering, what part of **CaerieD’s** suspicion is reactionary? Up until that point most people (I think and **Blaster Master** agrees) trusted **Blaster Master** for his posts, his math work and generally supported him. Yet **CaerieD** put him on the distrust list, along with **Autocylus** , who at that time was being bandwagonned. I agree that acting on the **CaerieD** information alone may be somewhat thin. I have explained my other reasons for voting to lynch **Blaster Master**. Hell she could have investigated **Menocchio** found him to be town, and just placed people she thought seemed to already have town support behind them ( **Blaster Master** ) and people who were being bandwaggoned ( **Autocylus** ) on her list to try to hide her power role. However a person who was that tricky with their mistrust list would have been smart enough to put more then 1 person on her trusted list, don’t you think? [/QUOTE] **CaerieD** ’s suspicion of me was because I was “a little too gung ho”, which seemed based on the suggestion made (IIRC, by you) that people who offer a lot of analysis are more likely to either be mafia or a power role. I’m still trying to figure out the logic behind that as good reason to lynch, so let’s analyze: Let’s assume for a moment that it’s true; then I’m either mafia or a power role AND I’ve been helpful (going by what others have said). Knowing that it’s highly unlikely that she would have targetted me (as I wasn’t a previous player, and wasn’t particularly active in the thread before the first day began), then that makes it just about as likely that I’m a power role as that I’m mafia. Being that others have found my analysis useful, if I am mafia, there ARE others out there who haven’t been helpful, and thus you can keep me around and use my analysis and lynch me later; if I’m a power role, then you’re losing a power role AND my helpful analysis, making me one of the worst players for the town to lose. IMO, losing a potential power-role AND my analysis far outweighs losing a potential mafia who still provides useful analysis to the town Now, of course, let’s analyze the opposite, and much more likely scenario IMO, that that suggestion is without merit. That is, my posting quantity is an artifact of my enjoyment of the game and my ability to keep up with it, and nothing more. Thus, I’m no more likely to be mafia, townie, or a power role than anyone else; thus, casting serious doubt on the bandwagon, and its main proponents, that has formed on me because of this reasoning. Either way, if I’m put on the chopping block, as it looks like I very well may be, I’m adequately prepared to dispell the doubt of my trustworthiness. And if/when that occurs, I imagine the FoS will fall squarely on you and **Gadarene** ; and it absolutely will when my death reveals that I, indeed, am not mafia. ---
**Author:** ![Queuing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/90ced4/32.png) [@Queuing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Queuing)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2007, 6:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/1024 "2007-04-02T18:44:48Z")
No one has been lynched yet. No one is in real danger of lynching. At some point the day will end, and we should end it rather then the Moderator. However I don’t think we should end it YET. **Blaster Master** will be away for the next 24 hours (which sucks, and I urge him to post his defense now, much like I did). IMO if you are one of the people in danger, it behooves you to defend yourself as we are running out of time. With only a 12 hour window to defend yourself you could quite easily run out of time. VOTE UPDATE: (if you don’t like these, or the way I do it feel free to say so) **7** -Blaster Master – (Queuing, Gadarene (again), pimaspinner, hocow, brewha, pygmy rugger, ArizonaTeach, winston) _Unvote – (gadarene, brewha)_ **5** - Pleonast – (Lakia (did it again), Kat, suburban plankton, mad the swine, Fernforest, fretfulporcupine, gadarene) _Unvote – (Lakia, MadtheSwine, gadarene)_ **5** - Queuing – (menecchio, Zuma (again), starving but strong, nesta, kivvik, pleonast) _Unvote – Menechio, Zuma_ **3** - PygmyRunner – (Zuma, madtheswine, menecchio, glee) _Unvote - Zuma_ B]2\*\* -Gadarene – (Fern Forest, Chrisk (after unvote), smitty, Blaster Master) _(Unvote- Fern Forest, chrisk)_ **1** -Chrisk – (Rysto, FCOD, Kat, PygmyRugger, arizonateach, Lakia (after unvote), Winston, glee Unvote – Kat, Rysto, Lakia, FCOD, arizona, winston, glee, pygmy rugger) **1** -Brewha – (fernforest, Monkeymensch) Unvoted - fernforest **1** - FCOD – (fretful porcupine, storyteller) Unvote – (Fretful) **1** - Rysto – (sturmhauke) **1** - Hocow – (Malacandra) **0** - Fernforest – (Winston) \* (Unvote – Winston) \* **0** - Autocylus – (Chrisk, menecchio _Unvote – (Chrisk, menecchio_ \*\*0 \*\*-Nesta – (sturmhauke, ) _Unvote -sturm_[/QUOTE ---
**Author:** ![MonkeyMensch](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/82dd89/32.png) [@MonkeyMensch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MonkeyMensch)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2007, 6:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/1025 "2007-04-02T18:46:47Z")
Well, an hour and a half to read 300 posts, not too bad. \*\*Winston Smith \*\* called for me to justify or update my suspicion list in #936 and I am happy to, given the changes that have occured. My list at the time was: **chrisk, brewha, aguecheek**. At that time I was waiting for **chrisk** to explain or defend his posts, but that is not forthcoming now. So **chrisk** , and by extension **JSexton** , is off the list, but still awaiting data. **Brewha** had accused me of giving 3 or 4 scum tells based on my admission of being a first time player and saying “::sniff::” to farewell the first night’s fallen. I thought it was very weakly based suspicion and it caught my eye. **Aguecheek** in #393, [QUOTE=aguecheek] In regards to assigning current roles and roles played in the last game, I am of the belief that all roles were assigned randomly, and that sturmhauke had as much of a chance of being assigned mafia as he’d had being assigned citizen. And I think he was assigned mafia. He was just as good a player earlier as dnooman had been last game (better, imho); I felt he managed to fly below the radar much longer than dnooman did. Were I mafia, I’da voted for him first and gone for dnooman second. The promised spreadsheet would not have had enough data on it to be much good by the time the second night rolled around. The only reasons I’d say he didn’t go first was either because he was mafia… or the mafia could only get one at a time and he’s set to go second. There’s been much discussion throughout as to why he wasn’t killed the first night by either the mob, the Vigilante, or the Serial Killer. I think he’s mob (as noted above). But if he isn’t, there should still have been a very good chance for him getting offed by the Vig or SK for the very same reasons he should’ve been targeted by the mafia. And yet he still wasn’t picked. That good a player, and three different factions didn’t pick him? C’mon. If he’s not mafia, then he’s one of the other two killers. [/QUOTE] seemed to be basing suspicion on **sturmhauke** ’s performance in the werewolf game and his survival of the first night. Again, like **brewha** ’s suspicion, it seemed weak and contrived. With the current information I’m going with **Aguecheek** , **Brewha** , **Queuing**. **Queuing** is there from reading others’ analyses and is third for that reason. So unvote brewha, vote aguecheek. ---
**Author:** ![Winston\_Smith](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/e95f7d/32.png) [@Winston\_Smith](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Winston_Smith)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2007, 6:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/1026 "2007-04-02T18:48:28Z")
[QUOTE=Rysto] Guys, can we not lynch anybody until **JSexton** has had a chance to post? [/QUOTE] I wanted to lynch **chrisk** for precisely this reason. Town or Mafia, I didn’t want this slowing down an already _excruciatingly_ slow day. Come on, people! Where’s your _hysteria_?!? ---
**Author:** ![nesta](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a4c791/32.png) [@nesta](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nesta)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2007, 6:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/1027 "2007-04-02T18:49:02Z")
[QUOTE=Queuing] I am wondering, what part of **CaerieD’s** suspicion is reactionary? [/QUOTE] Maybe reactionary wasn’t the word I was looking for. Hm, according to [m-w.com](http://m-w.com) it seems it wasn’t. I was trying to say that **CaerieD** was reacting to **Blaster Master’s** posts, and not trusting her investigation, when she said she didn’t trust him in post [478](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8408888&postcount=478). This is in contrast to the out of nowhere trust she gives **Menocchio** in post [326](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8406256&postcount=326). The original trust list was posted 3/28 at 3:54 PM, and the mistrust of **Blaster Master** was posted on 3/29 at 10:47 AM, or almost 18 hours later. That’s a lot of time to build up a reaction to someone who posts as much as **Blaster Master** , and his prolific posting style is her stated reason for distrusting him. That’s what I meant. [QUOTE=Queuing] Hell she could have investigated **Menocchio** found him to be town, and just placed people she thought seemed to already have town support behind them ( **Blaster Master** ) and people who were being bandwaggoned ( **Autocylus** ) on her list to try to hide her power role. However a person who was that tricky with their mistrust list would have been smart enough to put more then 1 person on her trusted list, don’t you think? [/QUOTE] I don’t think she was that tricky. I think her posts were exactly what they appear to be, that she made an obvious breadcrumb post after supporting the idea of breadcrumbs, and then later didn’t trust **Blaster Master** for exactly the reason she said. Nothing tricky there. ---
**Author:** ![NAF1138](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/naf1138/32/3245_2.png) [@NAF1138](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NAF1138)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2007, 6:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/1028 "2007-04-02T18:49:09Z")
[QUOTE=Queuing] VOTE UPDATE: (if you don’t like these, or the way I do it feel free to say so) **7** -Blaster Master – (Queuing, Gadarene (again), pimaspinner, hocow, **brewha** , pygmy rugger, ArizonaTeach, winston) _Unvote – (gadarene, brewha)_ [/quote] Bolding mine, \*\*brewha \*\* unvoted. BM only has 6 votes now. See, it’s not easy to keep up. ---
**Author:** ![Blaster\_Master](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/cab0a1/32.png) [@Blaster\_Master](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blaster_Master)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2007, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/1029 "2007-04-02T18:51:15Z")
[QUOTE=Queuing] No one has been lynched yet. No one is in real danger of lynching. At some point the day will end, and we should end it rather then the Moderator. However I don’t think we should end it YET. **Blaster Master** will be away for the next 24 hours (which sucks, and I urge him to post his defense now, much like I did). [/QUOTE] Correction, I had a feeling I didn’t state that too well. I will have limited access (mondays and tuesdays and thursday tend to be VERY busy for me between work and school) so I may or may not be able to defend myself tonight. That said, if I get home at a not so unreasonable time, I may post my defense tonight, if I still feel I’m in danger. ---
**Author:** ![Gadarene](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Gadarene](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gadarene)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2007, 6:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/1030 "2007-04-02T18:52:29Z")
> [@](#): > > BM only has 6 votes now. See, it’s not easy to keep up. Only six? From your list, I count seven. Queuing, Gadarene (again), pimaspinner, hocow, pygmy rugger, ArizonaTeach, winston. Yup, seven. ---
**Author:** ![NAF1138](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/naf1138/32/3245_2.png) [@NAF1138](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NAF1138)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2007, 6:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/1031 "2007-04-02T18:52:40Z")
I was going of the number he had. I didn’t actually count. But I realized I misinterpreted how he was putting the list together…never mind, I shouldn’t post. Who am I to try to keep track of things. ---
**Author:** ![Winston\_Smith](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/e95f7d/32.png) [@Winston\_Smith](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Winston_Smith)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2007, 6:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/1032 "2007-04-02T18:52:59Z")
[QUOTE=MonkeyMensch] \*\*Winston Smith \*\* called for me to justify or update my suspicion list in #936 and I am happy to, given the changes that have occured. [QUOTE] What the hell are you talking about? I never asked you for anything. We’ve not even had any dialog, you and I. Although I vaguely recall you casting suspicion my way 4 or 5 hundred posts ago. WTF? 😕 ---
**Author:** ![Queuing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/90ced4/32.png) [@Queuing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Queuing)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2007, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/1033 "2007-04-02T18:59:01Z")
[QUOTE=Blaster Master] **CaerieD** ’s suspicion of me was because I was “a little too gung ho”, which seemed based on the suggestion made (IIRC, by you) [/QUOTE] For the record this is false. I have never accused someone of being to “gung ho”. I am the 6th most active posting player. I do not think the number of posts indicate anything (except maybe a little much involvement in the game 😉 ). Since I am voting to lynch you on the basis of information provided to us by the only person who has the ability to provide townspeople info (our dead detective), and the fact that you lied (lynch all liars). Also considering the fact most of your “useful” reputation is based on math and probabilities, I feel confident in my vote for you. You could be town, to be honest I don’t KNOW. All I KNOW is what I am, a vanilla citizen, and what the dead people are. One of these dead people happened to be a detective. I believe everything she said. That is the only logical way to look at her information. Unfortunately for you she said she didn’t trust you. You are now saying she didn’t trust you because of what I said?! Even though I didn’t say it? Huh? Lie number 2? Or just an honest mistake, and why not point the finger at me? ---
**Author:** ![Queuing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/90ced4/32.png) [@Queuing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Queuing)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2007, 7:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/1034 "2007-04-02T19:00:50Z")
[QUOTE=NAF1138] I was going of the number he had. I didn’t actually count. But I realized I misinterpreted how he was putting the list together…never mind, I shouldn’t post. Who am I to try to keep track of things. [/QUOTE] He has 7. I count everyone who has voted for a certain player, and leave them in that list. I then compare it to who has unvoted. I do this so I can see who voted for who, and when they voted. The order of names is in the order the vote was cast. Sorry if its confusing, I can change the list I post to be consistent with yours if that will make life easier. ---
**Author:** ![NAF1138](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/naf1138/32/3245_2.png) [@NAF1138](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NAF1138)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2007, 7:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/1035 "2007-04-02T19:03:57Z")
[QUOTE=Queuing] He has 7. I count everyone who has voted for a certain player, and leave them in that list. I then compare it to who has unvoted. I do this so I can see who voted for who, and when they voted. The order of names is in the order the vote was cast. Sorry if its confusing, I can change the list I post to be consistent with yours if that will make life easier. [/QUOTE] Nah, do your thing. I usually don’t use your lists, I just check them to see if the seem right when I have the chance. You all do what works best for you. ---
**Author:** ![Blaster\_Master](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/cab0a1/32.png) [@Blaster\_Master](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blaster_Master)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2007, 7:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/1036 "2007-04-02T19:17:41Z")
[QUOTE=Queuing] For the record this is false. I have never accused someone of being to “gung ho”. I am the 6th most active posting player. I do not think the number of posts indicate anything (except maybe a little much involvement in the game 😉 ). Since I am voting to lynch you on the basis of information provided to us by the only person who has the ability to provide townspeople info (our dead detective), and the fact that you lied (lynch all liars). Also considering the fact most of your “useful” reputation is based on math and probabilities, I feel confident in my vote for you. [/QUOTE] It may not have been you that made the suggestion, but I’m quite sure there was a suggestion made that analysis and lots of posting is often either a mafia or power role tell. And this argument is completely non-sensical as well. **CaerieD** has ONE breadcrumb, and it’s 99% likely that it was **Menocchio**. If it wasn’t him, then it still makes it equally likely that it was me or **Autolycus** that shouldn’t be trusted. Other than her single breadcrumb, any other distrusts she had are nothing more than conjectures that are as valuable as anyone elses. And lying? The only accusation I’ve seen of me lying was with regard to my trust list, which I felt I’ve adequately defended twice, and yet I keep getting accused of lying, without regard to those defenses. So, either address my logic in those defenses, point out another place you think I lied, or give it up. The only “useful” part of my reputation is my mathematical analysis? Let me ask you then… why would a mafia who, based on the original understanding of the beat cop, could potentially use his investigations to hide his status go through the effort to prove it is actually very useful information? Further, I am quite certain that both you and **Gadarene** are mafia, based on my analysis of your voting patterns and starting this bandwagon against me. I guarantee that when I either become a confirmed townie, or am dead, the rest of the town will find that analysis _quite_ useful. > [@](#): > > You could be town, to be honest I don’t KNOW. All I KNOW is what I am, a vanilla citizen, and what the dead people are. One of these dead people happened to be a detective. I believe everything she said. That is the only logical way to look at her information. Unfortunately for you she said she didn’t trust you. You are now saying she didn’t trust you because of what I said?! Even though I didn’t say it? Huh? Lie number 2? Or just an honest mistake, and why not point the finger at me? As I stated above, the only reasonable thing that **CaerieD** said that is worth trusting is with regard to **Menocchio**. What if BOTH **Autolycus** and I are townies? It seems silly tome to assume we’re both scum by the sole justification that she was “suspicious” of us with no more information about either of us than anyone else has. Otherwise, you’re either naive OR you’re deliberately trying to use this town’s grief over her death by twisting her words to get the town to lynch ANOTHER townie. ---
**Author:** ![nesta](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a4c791/32.png) [@nesta](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nesta)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2007, 7:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/1037 "2007-04-02T19:23:37Z")
I see the **Blaster Master** bandwagon has slowed down by one vote, and it doesn’t seem as inevitable that it will go through as it did to me just a few minutes ago. In case the lynch mob is looking for other targets I’d like to put my vote where I think it really belongs. Unvote Queuing Vote Gadarene This is because **Queuing** has had good reasons for why he’s voted for **Blaster Master** , but **Gadarene** mostly hasn’t. She also seemed quick to pick up the “ **Blaster Master** was the breadcrumb” theory that I find flawed and run with it. Combine this with her unsound “kill me to prove I’m a civilian” strategy and it makes me think that between her and **Queuing** , she is slightly more likely to be scum than he is. ---
**Author:** ![Gadarene](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Gadarene](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gadarene)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2007, 7:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/1038 "2007-04-02T19:24:33Z")
Him. He. Thanks. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![nesta](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a4c791/32.png) [@nesta](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nesta)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2007, 7:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/1039 "2007-04-02T19:29:25Z")
[QUOTE=Gadarene] Him. He. Thanks. 🙂 [/QUOTE] Sorry about that. I think my mind was stuck on remembering CearieD was a she and somehow that got applied to you. I’ll try not to let it happen again. ---
**Author:** ![Gadarene](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Gadarene](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gadarene)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2007, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/1040 "2007-04-02T19:30:52Z")
Hey, no worries! Let me ask you a question, though: if I get lynched and it turns out that I’m a vanilla townie, will you give my scum list any more credence than you do now? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565.md?page=51) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565.md?page=53)