# Werewolf a game Part 2 (this time with MAFIA!) **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [March 26, 2007, 4:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565 "2007-03-26T16:47:06Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 93
**Author:** ![hocow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hocow/32/4112_2.png) [@hocow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hocow)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2007, 3:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/1841 "2007-04-06T15:56:06Z")
Let me add that **Aguecheek** is on my trust list now as s/he (covering my bases w/ sex) made the effort to look up the inconsistencies in **Monkey** ’s posts. If they were both scum, I believe they would have went on the assumption that few people would be arsed to check that far back in the thread. And, pending some superb explanation of the inconsistency, **Monkey** is the scummy one in my book now. ---
**Author:** ![Malacandra](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Malacandra](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malacandra)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2007, 4:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/1842 "2007-04-06T16:05:07Z")
Oy vey. I suck at this game. I’m fine with arguing game theory and probabilities, but this he-said she-said business does my head in. Time to man up and say: un-hit **hocow** 'cos I am a lot less certain than I was about what looked like a shout-out many, many pages back. (Is green the appropriate colour to countermand orange? I don’t know that we’ve discussed it.) ---
**Author:** ![Fretful\_Porpentine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fretful_porpentine/32/2873_2.png) [@Fretful\_Porpentine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fretful_Porpentine)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2007, 4:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/1843 "2007-04-06T16:09:42Z")
Recap, part 2. I think taking a close look at the **Winston Smith** bandwagon would be profitable. My own comments are bolded and in brackets; everything else is factual recap, and I’d welcome any corrections. **Pleonast** says town should lynch Queuing and assassinate **Gadarene** , but says this is not a vote. **Winston Smith** accuses **Blaster Master** of being Mafia (1413). **BM** proposes a new conditional plan: lynch Gadarene; target **Queuing** if he’s scum, **JSexton** if not. BM then suggests that the Serial Killer should hit **Winston Smith** because he believes he’s scum. **glee** proposes another set of conditionals: lynch **Queuing** , kill **Gadarene** if scum, **Autolycus** if not. **Blaster Master** does not want to kill Autolycus because he says it won’t give any information. **glee** asks BM to propose his own alternative target. BM says, at 1446: > [@](#): > > That’s why I propose we lynch Gadarene instead. There’s zero doubt in my mind that he’s mafia, and since I’m less convinced of Queuing’s scumminess than of Winston Smith’s, I’d rather kill him tonight, and we can decide on Queuing’s fate tomorrow. Then, since so fewer express doubt in Gadarene’s innocence, I can target an alternate target that would still gain us information, like JSexton, or I can target a SK candidate like hocow, or Autolycus (or any other suggestions). > > Bottom line, I’ll give my suggestions, but I don’t want to act without the town’s blessings because I don’t want any post hoc reasoning going on. BM then proposes (1449) > [@](#): > > Lynch Gadarene, if he’s scum, target Queuing/Winston Smith, if he’s not, target JSexton/Autolycus. > > Then since there is some slight doubt about Queuing, I’d rather leave him off at this point, and make him suspect number one tomorrow. Or, even let him be investigated by a beat cop. Speaking of which, if a beat cop wants to investigate me to vindicate me in the event that the SK claims, please do so. **[Editorial comment: It seems to me that BM is playing an absolutely brilliant Richard III to glee’s Buckingham.]** **Winston Smith** retorts that BM doesn’t get to propose plans; he should do as he’s told. **Queuing** asks the two masons to direct BM’s kill, suggesting **Aguecheek or JSexton**. **kivvik** suggests **Winston Smith** as BM’s target (not a vote); does not support making **Autolycus** a target. BM reiterates his recommendation from post 1449. **Menoccio** votes for lynching Gadarene, killing Queuing if scum, Winston Smith if not. **JSexton** suggests Winston as a single target (not a vote). **Rysto** and **JSexton** vote to lynch **Gadarene** and assassinate **Winston Smith**. **Queuing** votes to assassinate **Aguecheek** if Gadarene is town and **Queuing** if he’s scum. **nesta** votes for **Queuing** if Gadarene is scum and **WinstonSmith** if Gadarene is town. **Blaster Master** asks people to vote between the following two plans: > [@](#): > > Plan 1: No matter how Gadarene turns out, kill Winston Smith. > Plan 2: If Gadarene is scum, kill Queuing, if he’s townie, kill Winston Smith. **[Further editorial comment: nesta, of course, knows perfectly well that Gadarene is town, and the “conditional” vote will result in the death of WS, who is also town. I suspect that BM knows this, too, and is aware that both plans will have the same result. Note that very few people have _actually_ voted to assassinate WS at this point – nesta and Menoccio conditionally, Rysto and JSexton absolutely. But BM presents this as if it were a done deal.]** All of the voting that goes on after this is for Plan 1 vs. plan 2 – no alternative targets for the Vig are proposed. The voting is on pp. 31-32 for those who want to study the details; the final count is as follows: Plan 1: **Rysto, JSexton, Blaster Master, storyteller0910, Pleonast, StarvingButStrong, Fretful Porpentine, Lakai, pimaspinner** Plan 2: **nesta, glee, Queuing(?), Menocchio, Autolycus, Pygmy Rugger, ArizonaTeach, MadTheSwine, Fern Forest, kivvik.** **[My conclusion: The townies, myself included, have been royally played by BlasterMaster, with a few nudges along the way from glee, kivvik, JSexton, Rysto, and nesta. I submit that BM, like nesta, is Mafia, that the Mafia killed Winston Smith during the night and the real Vigilante tried to kill him during the night and was blocked by the Doctor, and that some of glee, kivvik, JSexton, and Rysto are BM’s co-conspirators, though it’s definitely possible that some are innocent. I think the Mafia would split their votes between plans 1 and 2 – after all, they know the actual outcome of the plans would be identical – and, indeed, we have a three and three split among the six people I suspect.]** ---
**Author:** ![Fretful\_Porpentine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fretful_porpentine/32/2873_2.png) [@Fretful\_Porpentine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fretful_Porpentine)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2007, 4:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/1844 "2007-04-06T16:16:46Z")
Oh, and I propose that we should either lynch JSexton and order BlasterMaster to kill glee or kivvik if JSexton turns out to be scum. I’m not so sure about **Rysto** , who may simply have guessed wrong. ---
**Author:** ![storyteller0910](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecae2f/32.png) [@storyteller0910](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/storyteller0910)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2007, 4:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/1845 "2007-04-06T16:22:33Z")
[QUOTE=Fretful Porpentine] Oh, and I propose that we should either lynch JSexton and order BlasterMaster to kill glee or kivvik if JSexton turns out to be scum. I’m not so sure about **Rysto** , who may simply have guessed wrong. [/QUOTE] I’m a little confused - your analysis was long, and I may have missed something somewhere - but it seems like your entire scenario hinges on **Blaster Master** being Mafia. If he is not, then none of the rest of what you say is relevant. And yet your choice to lynch is **JSexton?** This does not compute. ---
**Author:** ![NAF1138](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/naf1138/32/3245_2.png) [@NAF1138](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NAF1138)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2007, 4:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/1846 "2007-04-06T16:24:24Z")
since we have a few new votes: 3- JSexton - (FCoD, Suburban Plankton, Fretful Porpentine) 3- pimaspinner - (Lakai, Pygmy Rugger) 2- Suburban Plankton - (StarvingButStrong, JSexton) 1- Fern Forest - (brewha) 1- Flying Cow of Doom - (Storyteller0910) 1- MonkeyMensch - (Aguecheek) 1- Pygmy Rugger - (MTS) ---
**Author:** ![MadTheSwine](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9fc29f/32.png) [@MadTheSwine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MadTheSwine)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2007, 4:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/1847 "2007-04-06T16:26:12Z")
[QUOTE=hocow] Good catch, **Aguecheek** Reading down the thread as I type this, I see that **MadTheSwine** is trying to detract attention from **Suburban Plankton** ’s accusation, and place it on **sturmhawke**. That seems a bit scummy to me. [/QUOTE] Not trying to detract any attention from **Sub Plank** ,in fact,I pointed out the same thing as \*\*Jsexton \*\* did about Plank way back in post #306. I just wanted to point out that \*\*sturmhauke \*\*along with **Plankton** seem to have changed posting styles from last game. Post #303 has **nesta** being told by [random.org](http://random.org) to vote for **hocow** or **Monkey** ,doesn’t do either one.Odd. **Monkey’s** claim of never having read the forbidden thread yet followed the werewolf game closely seems very strange,since he is sharp as a tack,I think he would have thought to look at the parallel thread. I am gonna Unvote Pygmy Rugger Vote MonkeyMensch ---
**Author:** ![MonkeyMensch](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/82dd89/32.png) [@MonkeyMensch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MonkeyMensch)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2007, 4:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/1848 "2007-04-06T16:27:37Z")
[QUOTE=Aguecheek] Yeah, I do remember it. He said it on post #739…35 posts _after_ you said that. Wanna talk about context, I’d say you should try backchecking yourself first. Yeah, it was referring to the werewolf thread, but it also referred to the forbidden werewolf thread wherein **chrisk** first came upon, and shot down, the plan he himself proposed not much later on. I only found it strange that you’d claimed to have followed the first game incredibly closely, but hadn’t read the companion thread. I followed the game pretty casually and still read the forbidden thread. [Inference Starts Here] Denying that you’d read that thread could give you plausible deniability that you’d heard of **chrisk** ’s plan, should it not turn out as well as he’d hoped. Because you _had_ heard of it…when he brought up the idea in the mafia thread. [End Inference] Vote MonkeyMensch [/QUOTE] I am so ashamed. I’m … wrong, Sir Andrew. ::Holds shriveled carrot in the air:: “As God is my witness I’ll never mis-quote again!” Or post after my bedtime. It’s a fair cop. No, no, not cop! A fair vote! ---
**Author:** ![JSexton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/96bed5/32.png) [@JSexton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JSexton)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2007, 4:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/1849 "2007-04-06T16:34:52Z")
[QUOTE=storyteller0910] I’m a little confused - your analysis was long, and I may have missed something somewhere - but it seems like your entire scenario hinges on **Blaster Master** being Mafia. If he is not, then none of the rest of what you say is relevant. And yet your choice to lynch is **JSexton?** This does not compute. [/QUOTE] No, it makes perfect sense, if you believe his/her reasoning. By instructing BM to kill “one of his own”, you force his hand. If he kills glee and glee turns up scum, great! Dead scum If he kills glee and glee turns up town, well, we’re not any worse off than we have been. If he fails to kill glee, then BM gets lynched, and probably glee gets lynched the following day. And presumably they’re co-scum for this scenario. And as I have not claimed a killing role to test, you lunch me in the meantime. It’s a good plan…if you think Aguecheek’s reasoning is sound. I don’t, naturally. I still think Rysto is solidly town. I never thought Blaster was mafia, but he could still be the SK. Unlikely, as in that case the vig clearly killed nesta instead of targeting BLaster. I have no real read on kivvik. glee could well be scum, though. ---
**Author:** ![MonkeyMensch](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/82dd89/32.png) [@MonkeyMensch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MonkeyMensch)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2007, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/1850 "2007-04-06T16:35:52Z")
As for a real explanation I saw **Lakai** ’s post above mine and thought that’s when the unvoting of **chrisk** was happening. That’s all I got. ---
**Author:** ![JSexton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/96bed5/32.png) [@JSexton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JSexton)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2007, 4:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/1851 "2007-04-06T16:36:40Z")
[QUOTE=MadTheSwine] The same can be said for **sturmhauke** can’t it? [/QUOTE] Yes, it can. I’ve had sturm in my townie column, but that’s largely because I thought the early wagon on him was mafia-driven. I may need to revisit that theory… ---
**Author:** ![storyteller0910](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecae2f/32.png) [@storyteller0910](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/storyteller0910)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2007, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/1852 "2007-04-06T16:38:25Z")
[QUOTE=JSexton] No, it makes perfect sense, if you believe his/her reasoning. By instructing BM to kill “one of his own”, you force his hand. If he kills glee and glee turns up scum, great! Dead scum If he kills glee and glee turns up town, well, we’re not any worse off than we have been. If he fails to kill glee, then BM gets lynched, and probably glee gets lynched the following day. And presumably they’re co-scum for this scenario. And as I have not claimed a killing role to test, you lunch me in the meantime. It’s a good plan…if you think Aguecheek’s reasoning is sound. I don’t, naturally. I still think Rysto is solidly town. I never thought Blaster was mafia, but he could still be the SK. Unlikely, as in that case the vig clearly killed nesta instead of targeting BLaster. I have no real read on kivvik. glee could well be scum, though. [/QUOTE] OK, I guess that’s a point. My objection is withdrawn. I don’t buy the reasoning, but I understand it now. ---
**Author:** ![Fretful\_Porpentine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fretful_porpentine/32/2873_2.png) [@Fretful\_Porpentine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fretful_Porpentine)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2007, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/1853 "2007-04-06T16:41:52Z")
[QUOTE=storyteller0910] I’m a little confused - your analysis was long, and I may have missed something somewhere - but it seems like your entire scenario hinges on **Blaster Master** being Mafia. If he is not, then none of the rest of what you say is relevant. And yet your choice to lynch is **JSexton?** This does not compute. [/QUOTE] My entire scenario hinges on **Blaster Master** being Mafia, which means he’s hand in glove with the rest of the Mafia. I’m fairly confident that **JSexton** , **glee** , and **kivvik** are among his fellow Mafia members. However, I am willing to accept the possibility that I’m wrong and **BlasterMaster** really is the Vig; therefore, I think lynching him outright has the potential to be disastrous. Therefore, I am suggesting that we should proceed with caution: first, test the accuracy of my theory by lynching one of the people whom I think is likely to be Mafia, then (if it seems likely that I’m right) cornering **Blaster Master** by ordering him to assassinate one of his fellow Mafia members. If he doesn’t follow orders, _then_ we lynch him. I picked **JSexton** for my lynch vote because I think he’s a likely lynch target in any case, but I’m equally happy to vote for one of the others. And my analysis was short – it’s the recap that was long 🙂 Only the material in bold has any pretensions to being analysis. ---
**Author:** ![Fretful\_Porpentine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fretful_porpentine/32/2873_2.png) [@Fretful\_Porpentine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fretful_Porpentine)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2007, 4:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/1854 "2007-04-06T16:47:59Z")
Although, actually, on looking over the recap again, I’d like to emend my proposal, because I’m less sure about **JSexton** than I was – I’d missed the fact that **Blaster Master** proposed to kill **JSexton** if **Gadarene** turned out to be TOWN, which would be a hell of a bold move if **JSexton** were a co-conspirator. Unvote JSexton. Vote kivvik. Assassinate glee if kivvik is scum. Or vice versa. ---
**Author:** ![NAF1138](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/naf1138/32/3245_2.png) [@NAF1138](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NAF1138)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2007, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/1855 "2007-04-06T16:51:23Z")
[QUOTE=NAF1138] since we have a few new votes: 3- JSexton - (FCoD, Suburban Plankton, Fretful Porpentine) 3- pimaspinner - (Lakai, Pygmy Rugger) 2- Suburban Plankton - (StarvingButStrong, JSexton) 1- Fern Forest - (brewha) 1- Flying Cow of Doom - (Storyteller0910) 1- MonkeyMensch - (Aguecheek) 1- Pygmy Rugger - (MTS) [/QUOTE] And Pygmy Rugger only gets one vote, not one for each of the words in his name. \*\*pima \*\* only has 2 votes. ---
**Author:** ![MadTheSwine](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9fc29f/32.png) [@MadTheSwine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MadTheSwine)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2007, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/1856 "2007-04-06T16:55:29Z")
[QUOTE=MadTheSwine] Not trying to detract any attention from **Sub Plank** ,in fact,I pointed out the same thing as \*\*Jsexton \*\* did about Plank way back in post #306. I just wanted to point out that \*\*sturmhauke \*\*along with **Plankton** seem to have changed posting styles from last game. Post #303 has **nesta** being told by [random.org](http://random.org) to vote for **hocow** or **Monkey** ,doesn’t do either one.Odd. **Monkey’s** claim of never having read the forbidden thread yet followed the werewolf game closely seems very strange,since he is sharp as a tack,I think he would have thought to look at the parallel thread. I am gonna Unvote Pygmy Rugger Vote MonkeyMensch [/QUOTE] Shoot,I just looked at the parallel thread,and Monkey did not post in it…dunno why I didn’t think to check that first.I still have doubts ,but not enough Unvote MonkeyMensch ---
**Author:** ![sturmhauke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e47c2d/32.png) [@sturmhauke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sturmhauke)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2007, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/1857 "2007-04-06T17:10:43Z")
[QUOTE=JSexton] Yes, it can. I’ve had sturm in my townie column, but that’s largely because I thought the early wagon on him was mafia-driven. I may need to revisit that theory… [/QUOTE] You think I might be scum because of a strategy disagreement? The simple truth is that this is the first game I’ve played that used a Vig, and I don’t know all the intricacies. While we’re on the topic of posting styles, it seems to me that you have much less concrete reasoning this time around. For example, I believe in your initial analysis post you said you thought I was town “for minor reasons,” and gave similar one-line thoughts on everyone else. I was expecting a bunch of deep analysis from the vaunted JSexton, but so far I haven’t seen it. ---
**Author:** ![hocow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hocow/32/4112_2.png) [@hocow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hocow)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2007, 5:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/1858 "2007-04-06T17:26:29Z")
[QUOTE=MonkeyMensch] I am so ashamed. I’m … wrong, Sir Andrew. ::Holds shriveled carrot in the air:: “As God is my witness I’ll never mis-quote again!” Or post after my bedtime. It’s a fair cop. No, no, not cop! A fair vote! [/QUOTE] I’m going to go ahead and vote MonkeyMensch. This post looks like a surrender. And his explanation a few posts down doesn’t sit right with me, either. ---
**Author:** ![MonkeyMensch](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/82dd89/32.png) [@MonkeyMensch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MonkeyMensch)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2007, 5:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/1859 "2007-04-06T17:33:24Z")
[QUOTE=hocow] I’m going to go ahead and vote MonkeyMensch. This post looks like a surrender. And his explanation a few posts down doesn’t sit right with me, either. [/QUOTE] That’s no surrender, it’s an admission of a screw up. Silly. ---
**Author:** ![JSexton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/96bed5/32.png) [@JSexton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JSexton)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2007, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565/1860 "2007-04-06T18:04:14Z")
[QUOTE=sturmhauke] You think I might be scum because of a strategy disagreement? [/quote] No, I didn’t say that at all. You’ve posted much less analysis than the last game. Of course, the lack of a cop role (presumably) may account for that. But it’s worth looking at your posts again with a fresh eye. > [@](#): > > While we’re on the topic of posting styles, it seems to me that you have much less concrete reasoning this time around. For example, I believe in your initial analysis post you said you thought I was town “for minor reasons,” and gave similar one-line thoughts on everyone else. That’s not true at all. All of the people I called as scum got a full paragraphs with links. > [@](#): > > I was expecting a bunch of deep analysis from the vaunted JSexton, but so far I haven’t seen it. “Vaunted”? Have I claimed to be a great master at this game? I’m experienced, yes. But on the sites I usually play at, I’m generally regarded to be better than average, but only by a bit. My overall record of wins is hovering around 40%. (Granted, I started with an atrocious 0-7 record that I’ve been working to improve, but still) Also, the main reason I didn’t sign up for the initial game is that my wife had a baby 3 weeks ago. As a result, I don’t have nearly as much time as usual to devote to analysis. I’m doing nearly all my posting from work. (Hi boss! :waves:) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565.md?page=92) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game-part-2-this-time-with-mafia/397565.md?page=94)