# Werewolf - a game. **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Created:** [February 5, 2007, 11:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game/390997 "2007-02-05T23:04:58Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 46
**Author:** ![Miller](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/miller/32/481_2.png) [@Miller](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Miller)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2007, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game/390997/901 "2007-03-06T18:00:08Z")
_ **OW!** _ ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2007, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game/390997/902 "2007-03-06T20:06:04Z")
**Rubystreak** in these post admits that **Miller** didn’t have the lowest number of posts. > [@Rubystreak](#): > > Most of my motivation is my desire to encourage people to post more, and penalize those who post little by viewing that behavior with suspicion, but now I look at the post count and see that moonstarsun, hocow, and Captain Carrot have all posted less often than Miller. So there goes that idea. > [@Rubystreak](#): > > That has changed, and part of me wants to change my vote to the lowest post count poster, who is hocow now… but that might be perceived as bandwagoning because someone else voted for her recently, or that I changed my vote because voting for Miller somehow made SP vote for me. Is there any significance that she didn’t switch her vote to one of these people? We know that **moonstarsun** was town. Is it possible that either (or both, I guess) **hocow** or **Captain Carrot** are werewolves? ---
**Author:** ![sturmhauke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e47c2d/32.png) [@sturmhauke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sturmhauke)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2007, 8:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game/390997/903 "2007-03-06T20:17:42Z")
[QUOTE=Richard Parker] \*\*Kat \*\*did play somewhat key roles in the lynching of both \*\*Menocchio \*\*and **Rubystreak** , if I’m not mistaken [/QUOTE] Menocchio yes, Rubystreak no. She didn’t vote at all yesterday, actually, and seemed carefully neutral on whether Rubystreak was secretly howling at the moon. I’ll have to do a more thorough reading. ---
**Author:** ![Ogre](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/ecb155/32.png) [@Ogre](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ogre)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2007, 8:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game/390997/904 "2007-03-06T20:49:34Z")
Wait. Has this been covered? Do we know how many werewolves there are? ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2007, 9:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game/390997/905 "2007-03-06T21:04:36Z")
[QUOTE=Ogre] Wait. Has this been covered? Do we know how many werewolves there are? [/QUOTE] I don’t think we do. I was guessing 4, just based on our starting numbers. ---
**Author:** ![Suburban\_Plankton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suburban_plankton/32/219_2.png) [@Suburban\_Plankton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Suburban_Plankton)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2007, 9:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game/390997/906 "2007-03-06T21:07:17Z")
[QUOTE=Ogre] Wait. Has this been covered? Do we know how many werewolves there are? [/QUOTE] No, we were not told. We only know that there were 21 players to begin with. We know that there were at least 3 townspeople (Seer, GA, and at least one Mason), and \*\*OAOW \*\*has told us that there are three Masons altogether. That leaves 16 potential werewolves, though in actuality the number must be quite a bit lower to make the game fair. If the werewolves ever gain a 50% share of the population, the game is over, so there must be significantly fewer than 50% to start. I would guess we were looking at no more than 6 or 7 werewolves to begin with, and we’ve knocked off two already. ---
**Author:** ![Ogre](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/ecb155/32.png) [@Ogre](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ogre)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2007, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game/390997/907 "2007-03-06T21:13:53Z")
Huh. I was reading some Werewolf sites, and one thing I noticed was that most moderators seem to be uncomfortable with more than about 2 werewolves for a standard game (7-11 players), and [one](http://www.eblong.com/zarf/werewolf.html) estimates that you should only add a third werewolf if you have 17 players. In fact, he says: > [@](#): > > I have done some statistical simulations of the game, mostly to figure out when to add a third werewolf. (Seventeen players looks right.) I’ll have to take a closer look at his statistics. So is it possible we’re really looking for 3 (or 4 at most) werewolves? Update: Interesting. It appears that (given the stated assumptions,) humans have about the same chance of winning if there are 17 players and 3 wolves as they do if there are 4 wolves and **27** players. We might be fighting an uphill battle here, especially if the number of wolves is greater than that. ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2007, 9:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game/390997/908 "2007-03-06T21:29:04Z")
Suspicious posts (to me): > [@hocow](#): > > Winston Smith’s recent posts have me leaning toward his innocence. In fact, I wonder if he is one of our more “almightier” players, i.e. Seer, Angel.. > [@Richard Parker](#): > > FWIW, I didn’t vote simply because I wasn’t interested in lynching the leading candidates and I didn’t want to voice my suspicions of a possible wolf that wasn’t going to get lynched. Plus pretty much everything that comes from **Winston Smith**. ---
**Author:** ![ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e9bcb4/32.png) [@ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2007, 9:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game/390997/909 "2007-03-06T21:58:04Z")
The game has an even more surreal tilt to it when two deaths have gone by since the last time I was able to read the thread. I’ve endured orientation and come out the other side alive. I even lucked out and got a window seat cube. 😃 Huzzah to the Rubystreak lynchers. My apologies for being too distracted to get a vote together. Miller shall be missed. Perhaps they were a bit hypersensative about that “queerwolf” comment back on page 1? 😉 Not sure what I can do about Richard’s desire to shake his FOS at me, but I’m open to further discussion on that matter. As for the wolfish scent in the air, it does indeed seem to be coming from Winston Smith’s general direction. But that may just be because he stepped in something. How long is left in this day? ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2007, 10:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game/390997/910 "2007-03-06T22:27:33Z")
[QUOTE=ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies] The game has an even more surreal tilt to it when two deaths have gone by since the last time I was able to read the thread. I’ve endured orientation and come out the other side alive. I even lucked out and got a window seat cube. 😃 Huzzah to the Rubystreak lynchers. My apologies for being too distracted to get a vote together. Miller shall be missed. Perhaps they were a bit hypersensative about that “queerwolf” comment back on page 1? 😉 Not sure what I can do about Richard’s desire to shake his FOS at me, but I’m open to further discussion on that matter. As for the wolfish scent in the air, it does indeed seem to be coming from Winston Smith’s general direction. But that may just be because he stepped in something. How long is left in this day? [/QUOTE] Hmm, you handled that well. Too well! ---
**Author:** ![dnooman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/839c29/32.png) [@dnooman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dnooman)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2007, 10:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game/390997/911 "2007-03-06T22:55:57Z")
I’ve been sensing a lot of evasive vibes coming from the town drunk. Methinks he might be drunk on the blood of our brethren. Lynch **Winston Smith**. ---
**Author:** ![MadTheSwine](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9fc29f/32.png) [@MadTheSwine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MadTheSwine)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2007, 11:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game/390997/912 "2007-03-06T23:31:18Z")
[QUOTE=Suburban Plankton] No, we were not told. We only know that there were 21 players to begin with. We know that there were at least 3 townspeople (Seer, GA, and at least one Mason) [/QUOTE] I think having one Mason is pointless,so there are at least two Masons. My vote is gonna stay with Winston Smith on top of the thoughts I already had,I found it strange that **Rubystreak** did nothing to try to save herself,like false claiming or voting for the next highest vote count,which was our friend **Winston** ---
**Author:** ![Kat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/b19c9b/32.png) [@Kat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kat)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2007, 1:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game/390997/913 "2007-03-07T01:01:30Z")
Yeah, I didn’t vote on Day 3, not for any strategy reasons, but solely because I overslept on Sunday. Severely overslept–until 1 PM. In order to avoid that this time, I’m getting my vote in early today. Vote for Winston Smith, based on his voting record and other comments. ---
**Author:** ![ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e9bcb4/32.png) [@ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2007, 1:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game/390997/914 "2007-03-07T01:13:39Z")
I’m officially casting my vote for Winston Smith as well. ---
**Author:** ![Suburban\_Plankton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suburban_plankton/32/219_2.png) [@Suburban\_Plankton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Suburban_Plankton)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2007, 2:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game/390997/915 "2007-03-07T02:31:10Z")
My but we’re a bloodthirsty lot today! Not 15 hours into the “day” and we’ve already got the rope strung loosely around **Winston Smith** ’s neck. I’ve come across a couple interesting tidbits as I’ve perused my notes on the thread: \*\*sturmhauke \*\*has cast two votes: against \*\*Menocchio \*\*on Day 1, and against \*\*Rubystreak \*\*on Day 3. Since the Seer couldn’t have possibly known about Menocchio, I think we have to mark that down to incredibly good instincts (or incredibly bad strategy by a werewolf). \*\*MadTheSwine \*\*has been trying to get rid of Winston Smith consistently since the middle of Day 2. His earlier votes were for \*\*JSexton \*\*and **OAOW** , both confirmed (for all intents) townies. Bad instincts? Or something more sinister? Maybe I just don’t like jumping on an already crowded bandwagon, but I’m not seeing the big problem with Winston Smith. I’m looking all the way back to the morning of Day 1. \*\*jsgoddess \*\*came out of the chute with guns a-blazin’, accusing people right and left. Naturally, everyone screamed “Werewolf!” until they had a chance to calm down and start thinking. In the end, we (correctly) lynched Menocchio, and jsgoddess was showered with apologies. Which I think was her plan from the start. She “survived” that first day, hoping people would remember the fact that the mob decided she _wasn’t_ a werewolf, and not give the matter a second thought. Lynch jsgoddess. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2007, 2:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game/390997/916 "2007-03-07T02:45:01Z")
[QUOTE=Suburban Plankton] Lynch jsgoddess. [/QUOTE] What about her central involvement in the \*\*Rubystreak \*\*lynching? ---
**Author:** ![Suburban\_Plankton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suburban_plankton/32/219_2.png) [@Suburban\_Plankton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Suburban_Plankton)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2007, 3:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game/390997/917 "2007-03-07T03:15:24Z")
[QUOTE=Richard Parker] What about her central involvement in the \*\*Rubystreak \*\*lynching? [/QUOTE] I don’t know that I’d call it “central involvement”. After all, \*\*jsgoddess \*\*voted for **Winston Smith** , not **Rubystreak**. They had a brief argument centered around Rubystreak’s voting patterns, but that doesn’t really prove anything. I think **sturmhauke** , our resident psychic, summed it up in post #770: > [@sturmhauke](#): > > jsgoddess’ spat with Rubystreak may be caused by legitimate beefs, but it’s also possible that it’s staged for our benefit so that they don’t appear to be working together. In fact, it’s quite conceivable that their argument might have been legitimate \*and \*staged; it could have been a warning to Rubystreak that her voting style was causing suspicion. ---
**Author:** ![Kat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/b19c9b/32.png) [@Kat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kat)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2007, 3:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game/390997/918 "2007-03-07T03:24:25Z")
[QUOTE=Suburban Plankton] Maybe I just don’t like jumping on an already crowded bandwagon, but I’m not seeing the big problem with Winston Smith. I’m looking all the way back to the morning of Day 1. [/QUOTE] **Winston Smith** also voted for **OAOW** as well as **moonstarssun** and **Miller**. He didn’t give any reason for the **OAOW** ’s vote, and his reasoning for the **moonstarssun** vote was even worse than mine was. Also, his vote for **MadtheSwine** reads like a revenge vote, which Townpeople should be over by now. If he wants to come in and give his reasons, that might help allay suspicions. **Winston**? ---
**Author:** ![Suburban\_Plankton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suburban_plankton/32/219_2.png) [@Suburban\_Plankton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Suburban_Plankton)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2007, 3:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game/390997/919 "2007-03-07T03:28:06Z")
Looking at my notes a bit more, I came across this post by **Richard Parker** , midway through Day 3: > [@Richard Parker](#): > > This is an interesting question. From the start, Rubystreak has been quick to protest (she did so quickly and early against even jsgoddess’s clearly baseless accusation in Day 1). However, she also made an effort to calm the bandwagon on that first day. Looking at it all together, she doesn’t strike me as a werewolf. I find it interesting that he should describe **jsgoddess** ’ accusation as “clearly baseless”, since he would have had no way to know that unless a) he was the Seer, and b) the accusation was not, in fact, spot-on. It looks more like an attempt to deliberately steer suspicion away from **Rubystreak**. :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2007, 3:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game/390997/920 "2007-03-07T03:36:11Z")
[QUOTE=Suburban Plankton] I find it interesting that he should describe **jsgoddess** ’ accusation as “clearly baseless”, since he would have had no way to know that unless a) he was the Seer, and b) the accusation was not, in fact, spot-on. It looks more like an attempt to deliberately steer suspicion away from **Rubystreak**. :dubious: [/QUOTE] I can’t believe I’m going to defend him, but I think he was just saying that my first statement against her was just an off-the-cuff accusation. It was, I think, my first post after the game started. It was definitely “clearly baseless.” And I don’t deserve too much credit for outing **Rubystreak**. I was suspicious, as I said a couple of times, but I wasn’t convinced at all. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game/390997.md?page=45) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-a-game/390997.md?page=47)