# Werewolf (Mafia)--The Split \[Signups--In progress\] **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [February 13, 2009, 3:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692 "2009-02-13T15:44:54Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 63
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2009, 11:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1241 "2009-03-13T23:21:11Z")
> [@Justin\_Credible](#): > > Awesome! > > Can I order a milk? A milk? We’re celebrating. Have a brandy. ---
**Author:** ![Ichini\_Sanshigo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/d9b06d/32.png) [@Ichini\_Sanshigo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ichini_Sanshigo)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2009, 12:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1242 "2009-03-14T00:34:41Z")
Hai guyz! I’d say “boo”, but apparently, there’s other ghosts here already. Ah, what the hell. BOO! ---
**Author:** ![AllWalker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/db5fbb/32.png) [@AllWalker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AllWalker)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2009, 12:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1243 "2009-03-14T00:37:49Z")
> [@Justin\_Credible](#): > > Awesome! > > Can I order a milk? Milk is bad for you… if yu are lactose intolerant. Drink whiskey instead. On a related note: Yay! Take that, wolfy! One down, maybe three to go… I think we have a chance! ---
**Author:** ![rexnervous](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e9c0ed/32.png) [@rexnervous](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rexnervous)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2009, 12:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1244 "2009-03-14T12:32:33Z")
Good morning, town. Still giddy, so why not open another bottle? What’re y’all having? ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2009, 10:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1245 "2009-03-14T22:25:25Z")
A quiet Night has fallen upon the town, as the towns people meditate up on the successful killing of a wolf. Each rancher and farmer remains grateful for their life and are becoming more aware of their need to appreciate the small things in life. Just kidding! I’ll take a Keystone Light! ---
**Author:** ![AllWalker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/db5fbb/32.png) [@AllWalker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AllWalker)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2009, 2:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1246 "2009-03-15T02:02:45Z")
You’re right, though. We need to appreciate the small things in life. Vodka, for example. ---
**Author:** ![Scuba\_Ben](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/278dde/32.png) [@Scuba\_Ben](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scuba_Ben)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2009, 2:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1247 "2009-03-15T14:06:24Z")
> [@Freudian\_Slit](#): > > Yeaaaaaaaaaah! All the drunken ghosts, wave your ectoplasm and say whoooo!!! !ood ---
**Author:** ![rexnervous](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e9c0ed/32.png) [@rexnervous](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rexnervous)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2009, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1248 "2009-03-15T16:31:47Z")
:: cautiously peeks out from under the covers to see who’s still alive :: ---
**Author:** ![Telcontar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3bc359/32.png) [@Telcontar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telcontar)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2009, 4:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1249 "2009-03-15T16:36:35Z")
> [@rexnervous](#): > > :: cautiously peeks out from under the covers to see who’s still alive :: Yeah, when does the body fall? ---
**Author:** ![Trepa\_Mayfield](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/edb3f5/32.png) [@Trepa\_Mayfield](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trepa_Mayfield)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2009, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1250 "2009-03-15T17:52:07Z")
Apologies, my roommate just woke up. **DaphneBlack, an Ordinary Farmer, is dead.** Day. Testerizing at 2:00 PM EDT Wedensday, and Lynch at 2:00 PM EDT Friday ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2009, 6:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1251 "2009-03-15T18:14:28Z")
Sorry, **Daphne**. I know how into the game you have been and your presence will be missed. From the joy of killing a werewolf to the disappointment of losing a key player, who we now know for sure was a townie. :sigh: ---
**Author:** ![DaphneBlack](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/daphneblack/32/5389_2.png) [@DaphneBlack](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DaphneBlack)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2009, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1252 "2009-03-15T18:25:45Z")
Bah! Go Town! To be honest, I sort of suspected this might happen after yesterday. Avenge meeeeeeeeee… ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2009, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1253 "2009-03-15T18:26:34Z")
Well, let’s begin. I want to return to my suspicion of Telcontar and say something I’ve been thinking about all Night. If Tel is a townie, why would EH have waited until the last minute(or more accurately, a minute after the last minute) to switch votes? Telcontar still tops my list of suspects, despite just barely surviving yesterDay. ---
**Author:** ![rexnervous](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e9c0ed/32.png) [@rexnervous](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rexnervous)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2009, 8:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1254 "2009-03-15T20:30:01Z")
Here’s my basic analysis - and that is that everyone who voted for \*\*EH \*\*is town (including \*\*MHaye \*\*who in essence voted for **EH** ). Why? Because of the way the last minute shifts and vote totals stood, it would have been fairly easy (if potentially noticeable) for the wolves to ensure **EH** ’s safety by voting for \*\*Telcontar \*\*or **Oredigger** , or someone else. They didn’t do that. The question is why? And I see two possibilities. 1. They couldn’t do a non-Telcontar/Oredigger vote (meaning a one- or zero-vote recipient being bumped to the top) w/o being incredibly obvious. 2. That either Telcontar or Oredigger is also a wolf, and because of #1 above they needed to sacrifice someone. However I do NOT see \*\*Telcontar \*\*as a wolf, because were he a wolf (along with **EH** , obviously) the timing of his vote meant he was in a perfect position to swing it to **Oredigger** , rather than **EH**. But he didn’t. (Of course if both of them are wolves, then my analysis is pretty much shot) > [@Mahaloth](#): > > If Tel is a townie, why would EH have waited until the last minute(or more accurately, a minute after the last minute) to switch votes? Sometimes the easiest answer may be the true one - the only way for \*\*EH \*\*to survive was to cast a vote for **Telcontar** , generating a tie vote and a 50/50 shot at staying alive. And \*\*EH \*\*just blew the timing. ---
**Author:** ![rexnervous](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e9c0ed/32.png) [@rexnervous](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rexnervous)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2009, 8:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1255 "2009-03-15T20:39:19Z")
Oh, and it _really_ sucks that Daphne’s gone. Why did the wolves pick her? Again, I see two options 1. The wolves know that we’ll probably come to conclusion that all EH-voters are town, so they need to remove someone from that pool (so that we townies have the same large pool of non-EH-voters. If they killed someone from the non-EH-voters, that reduces the mis-lynch possibles on our end) 2. They want to cast suspicion on Daphne’s other target, Justin Credible Thoughts? ---
**Author:** ![rexnervous](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e9c0ed/32.png) [@rexnervous](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rexnervous)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2009, 9:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1256 "2009-03-15T21:03:11Z")
A “math” update. Right now, the game stands at 6 farmers dead and 2 ranchers dead. We are all pretty much sure the game started at 9 farmers, 9 ranchers. That leaves 3 farmers and 7 ranchers alive. When we count the wolves into the equation, we most likely had a 7/7/4 split at the start of the game. So what we really have is 7 town ranchers, 7 town farmers, 2 wolf ranchers, 2 wolf farmers Take it all into account, and we have, alive: 5 town ranchers 2 town farmers 2 wolf ranchers 1 wolf farmer There’s a reason why I posted this, but want to see what others have to say, if anything, about it before I go further. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2009, 11:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1257 "2009-03-15T23:12:58Z")
Well, rex, it makes sense for the most part. There are a couple things to remember. 1. Some of the votes for EH may have been lucky. We should examine who voted for him and when. 2. At least one wolf may have voted EH. I don’t know why we have to assume every EH voter is a townie. 3. I didn’t vote for EH and I’m a townie. 🙂 I do have to say that it makes me believe Telcontar, more. I’m just not sure if we should automatically throw our trust into every EH voter. ---
**Author:** ![Telcontar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3bc359/32.png) [@Telcontar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telcontar)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2009, 12:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1258 "2009-03-16T00:00:01Z")
> [@pedescribe](#): > > Apologies, my roommate just woke up. > > **DaphneBlack, an Ordinary Farmer, is dead.** > > Day. Testerizing at 2:00 PM EDT Wedensday, and Lynch at 2:00 PM EDT Friday Given that she cast the decisive vote against EH, this isn’t as great a shock as it would have been any other week. So the final tally was: Elendil’s Heir (4): rexnervous, Oredigger77, Telcontar, DaphneBlack Telcontar (3): Mahaloth, Justin Credible, Jimmy Chitwood Oredigger77 (2): Fluiddruid, C MHaye (1): Zeriel DaphneBlack (1): Elendil’s Heir Given that there are, presumably, 4 wolves it’s rather impressive that we managed to lynch one with only 4 votes. By “rather impressive” i mean “WTF.” It just shouldn’t have worked. Based on the voting Mhaye and Fluiddruid were in positions to help spare EH and neither did (both posted close enough to 12 that, if they were wolves they could have recognized the situation and acted). Obviously Rexnervous, Oredigger77, and Daphne could have. This leads me to suspect that the wolves (presuming rational wolves) are among the group of Mahaloth, Justin Credible, Jimmy Chitwood, Allwalker, and Zeriel. What do people think? ---
**Author:** ![Telcontar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3bc359/32.png) [@Telcontar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telcontar)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2009, 12:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1259 "2009-03-16T00:07:10Z")
> [@pedescribe](#): > > Apologies, my roommate just woke up. > > **DaphneBlack, an Ordinary Farmer, is dead.** > > Day. Testerizing at 2:00 PM EDT Wedensday, and Lynch at 2:00 PM EDT Friday > [@rexnervous](#): > > Here’s my basic analysis - and that is that everyone who voted for \*\*EH \*\*is town (including \*\*MHaye \*\*who in essence voted for **EH** ). > > Why? Because of the way the last minute shifts and vote totals stood, it would have been fairly easy (if potentially noticeable) for the wolves to ensure **EH** ’s safety by voting for \*\*Telcontar \*\*or **Oredigger** , or someone else. > > They didn’t do that. The question is why? And I see two possibilities. > > 1. They couldn’t do a non-Telcontar/Oredigger vote (meaning a one- or zero-vote recipient being bumped to the top) w/o being incredibly obvious. > > 2. That either Telcontar or Oredigger is also a wolf, and because of #1 above they needed to sacrifice someone. > > However I do NOT see \*\*Telcontar \*\*as a wolf, because were he a wolf (along with **EH** , obviously) the timing of his vote meant he was in a perfect position to swing it to **Oredigger** , rather than **EH**. But he didn’t. > > (Of course if both of them are wolves, then my analysis is pretty much shot) > > Sometimes the easiest answer may be the true one - the only way for \*\*EH \*\*to survive was to cast a vote for **Telcontar** , generating a tie vote and a 50/50 shot at staying alive. And \*\*EH \*\*just blew the timing. I like your analysis here. Additional point: If EH and I were both wolves, we could easily have simply maintained focus on Oredigger77. I certainly had cover there, and EH never explained his votes well. So unless all three of us were wolves it’s really hard to figure out why all this worked. of course, if both oredigger77 and i were wolves we would never have gone after each other on the testing so we could have created another viable suspect and lynched them easily enough. Frankly i think the wolves just screwed the pooch. Someone was supposed to recast their vote and then EH was supposed to cast the deciding vote in favor of me. That someone waited too long (as did EH, but that’s besides the point). Where is your town math taking you? ---
**Author:** ![Justin\_Credible](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/a8b319/32.png) [@Justin\_Credible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Justin_Credible)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2009, 12:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1260 "2009-03-16T00:51:29Z")
I’m really surprised about Daphne. I was certain she was scum. > [@Telcontar](#): > > I like your analysis here. Additional point: If EH and I were both wolves, we could easily have simply maintained focus on Oredigger77. I certainly had cover there, and EH never explained his votes well. So unless all three of us were wolves it’s really hard to figure out why all this worked. of course, if both oredigger77 and i were wolves we would never have gone after each other on the testing so we could have created another viable suspect and lynched them easily enough. Actually, that’s a pretty clever wolf move - going after each other so that if one of you is lynched, the other one looks innocent and is in the clear for a while. I sincerely doubt that everyone who voted for EH is town, even though both you and Rex seem to think so. It seems like a great place for a wolf (or two?) to hide. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692.md?page=62) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692.md?page=64)