# Werewolf (Mafia)--The Split \[Signups--In progress\] **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [February 13, 2009, 3:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692 "2009-02-13T15:44:54Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 71
**Author:** ![Telcontar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3bc359/32.png) [@Telcontar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telcontar)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2009, 6:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1401 "2009-03-22T18:08:26Z")
> [@pedescribe](#): > > Zeriel, a Rancher Role Cop, is dead. > > Day starts now Testerization happens Wedensday, lynch happens Friday, both at Noon EDT. So we’ve had two interesting votes of late: Elendil’s Heir (4): rexnervous, Oredigger77, Telcontar, DaphneBlack Telcontar (3): Mahaloth, Justin Credible, Jimmy Chitwood Oredigger77 (2): Fluiddruid, Allwalker MHaye (1): Zeriel DaphneBlack (1): Elendil’s Heir And Justin Credible (5): Telcontar, Mhaye, rexnervous, AllWalker, Jimmy Chitwood MHaye (4): Zeriel, Mahaloth, Justin Credible, Oredigger77 So we have two players who have been “right” twice, myself and **rexnervous**. We have one player who has been wrong twice,\*\* Mahaloth\*\*. We have incomplete information on one player, **Adrian II**. We also have two wolves, meaning that at least one wolf has (probably) substantially contributed to the death of another. We also have **MHaye** , who rather solidly contributed to the death of\*\* Justin\*\* and may have cracked the testerizer (on one hand) but has attracted the suspicion of known innocents ( **Zeriel** ). My read on him is innocent, but I suppose we don’t know that per se. Hmm. I think it would be helpful if some of the less consistently vocal players voiced some of their suspicions. **Mahaloth** ,\*\* Jimmy\*\*, and **Adrian II** in particular. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2009, 6:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1402 "2009-03-22T18:10:17Z")
So who do we want to test? I have a good feeling that the testerizer is more or less solved, so the next test should be very useful. Our choices are: Mahaloth(me) Allwalker Adrian the II(fluiddruid sub) Jimmy MHaye Oredigger Rexnervous For now, I vote: **test Mhaye** ---
**Author:** ![rexnervous](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e9c0ed/32.png) [@rexnervous](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rexnervous)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2009, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1403 "2009-03-22T18:25:42Z")
Interesting, **Telcontar**. I have something else to throw out there, but I caution that it is based solely on “odds” and not on anything tangible in the game. And that is… (drum roll) …the distribution of “experienced” players. According to my notes (also noted in the Testerizer doc, which I am keeping up-to-date), we had 7 experienced (who self-identified) players at the start of the game (if you include \*\*MHaye **as a starter). Those would be: \*\* Scuba\_Ben Freudian Slit Oredigger Zeriel DaphneBlack fluiddruid MHaye** Now I believe we’re working off a 7/7/4 split. Which means that the wolves consist of 22% of the players. Apply that to the experienced set of players, and you would have 1.555 experienced players as part of the wolf faction. So the assumption would be that 1 or 2 wolves (probably 1) are experienced. Now look at the results: **Scuba\_Ben, Freudian Slit, DaphneBlack** , and \*\*Zeriel \*\*are all dead. That leaves **Oredigger** , \*\*fluiddruid \*\*(now Undecided Adrian the II) and \*\*MHaye \*\*as living, experienced players. Of which 1 is _very_ likely to be a wolf. Based on two things \*\*MHaye \*\*did - the EH vote and figuring out the testerizer (assuming that is correct), I’d lean \*\*MHaye \*\*towards town. So - that leaves **fluiddruid (Adrian)** and **Oredigger**. 1 of whom, simply playing the odds, is a wolf. Playing the odds can be dangerous - so I’m just throwing it out there. Also, this is based on how everyone self-identified at the beginning, so if anyone who is experienced isn’t on my list, speak up 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![rexnervous](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e9c0ed/32.png) [@rexnervous](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rexnervous)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2009, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1404 "2009-03-22T18:30:26Z")
> [@Mahaloth](#): > > So who do we want to test? I have a good feeling that the testerizer is more or less solved, so the next test should be very useful. > > Our choices are: > > Mahaloth(me) > Allwalker > Adrian the II(fluiddruid sub) > Jimmy > MHaye > Oredigger > Rexnervous > > For now, I vote: > > **test Mhaye** I am not following the logic here at all. If MHaye was a wolf, why would he reveal the Testerizer code, since nobody else at all was even close to getting it? If you think the Testerizer code is incorrect, then I can see voting for MHaye, as you’d be saying “MHaye is misdirecting us”. But you say you agree that the code has been broken by MHaye. This is a very suspicious vote. ---
**Author:** ![Zeriel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/58956e/32.png) [@Zeriel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeriel)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2009, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1405 "2009-03-22T19:32:24Z")
Avenge meee. Go town, boo fuzzbutts. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2009, 8:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1406 "2009-03-22T20:03:20Z")
> [@rexnervous](#): > > I am not following the logic here at all. If MHaye was a wolf, why would he reveal the Testerizer code, since nobody else at all was even close to getting it? > > If you think the Testerizer code is incorrect, then I can see voting for MHaye, as you’d be saying “MHaye is misdirecting us”. But you say you agree that the code has been broken by MHaye. > > This is a very suspicious vote. :smack: Wow. I totally had it written down wrong about who “solved” the testerizer. I thought it was rex, for some reason. :eek: Well, I’ll unvote MHaye and totally am cool with it if you guys want to test me. I’m a townie, but if we really have the testerizer thing solved, it will show that. **untest MHaye** ---
**Author:** ![\_Undecided\_Adrian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/_/eada6e/32.png) [@\_Undecided\_Adrian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/_Undecided_Adrian)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2009, 11:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1407 "2009-03-22T23:08:45Z")
OK, I agree that I need to voice my impressions of the current state of things and my suspicions. First, again, really well done everyone. The **EH** lynch was real close and the wolves certainly did not vote as a group on that. That doesn’t tell us much, would have been dumb anyway. A wolf voting for **EH** is unlikely, but possible. **MHaye’s** testerizer idea seems to be correct (that was a remarkably well-reasoned post) and suddenly the numbers look real good for us. With the most likely starting distribution, if we refrain from lynching people which come up as town, we need to find the first wolf after three tests and the second after two more tests, taking the lynch into account. I think. Good odds, in any case. We’re only in trouble in the unlikely case that it’s incorrect, because we might fail to lynch a wolf, and I don’t know how to 100% confirm the pattern before seeing a second wolf pattern. Too bad **EH** hasn’t been tested. But it looks very solid since the pattern was correct in five tests with 50:50 odds, which has a probability of only 3% in a random distribution. So, now for the decision who to test first… I don’t have any big suspicion at the moment. **Oredigger** was the only one not to vote for **Justin Credible** , but I think as scum he would have switched his vote over, since that wouldn’t have been especially suspicious and doesn’t leave a “permanent” record in the vote count analysis. It was also clear that it wouldn’t have an effect. I don’t think **rexnervous’s** analysis has much bearing on that, though, there is much more guesswork involved than in the somewhat more firmly based numbers above. **Telcontar** seemed suspicious to me when I was alive the last time, but definitely less so now, and his testerizer pattern looks good. So he’s probably the closest now to trusted townie status, along with **MHaye**. **Mahalot’s** vote certainly was strange, but is very unlikely to be part of a strategy, since **MHaye’s** cred is deservedy very good. But even with high confidence in the testerizer, I wouldn’t just accept getting myself tested without discussion, since town would lose information from the discussion and throw away one testing opportunity. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2009, 11:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1408 "2009-03-22T23:26:16Z")
[quote=“Telcontar, post:1401, topic:485692”] And Justin Credible (5): Telcontar, Mhaye, rexnervous, AllWalker, Jimmy Chitwood MHaye (4): Zeriel, Mahaloth, Justin Credible, Oredigger77 /QUOTE] Whoa. What? I must be even more confused than I thought. I was wrong once and right once. Post 1371 shows that everyone but Oredigger voted for Justin. [Final Vote Total](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=10954553&postcount=1371) ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2009, 11:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1409 "2009-03-22T23:28:04Z")
I can’t edit, so I’m re-posting my post to make it fit. > [@Telcontar](#): > > And > > Justin Credible (5): Telcontar, Mhaye, rexnervous, AllWalker, Jimmy Chitwood > MHaye (4): Zeriel, Mahaloth, Justin Credible, Oredigger77 > > So we have two players who have been “right” twice, myself and **rexnervous**. We have one player who has been wrong twice,\*\* Mahaloth\*\*. We have incomplete information on one player, **Adrian II**. We also have two wolves, meaning that at least one wolf has (probably) substantially contributed to the death of another. Whoa. What? I must be even more confused than I thought. I was wrong once and right once. Post 1371 shows that everyone but Oredigger voted for Justin. [Post 1371](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=10954553&postcount=1371) ---
**Author:** ![Telcontar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3bc359/32.png) [@Telcontar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telcontar)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2009, 12:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1410 "2009-03-23T00:45:19Z")
> [@Mahaloth](#): > > I can’t edit, so I’m re-posting my post to make it fit. > > Whoa. What? I must be even more confused than I thought. I was wrong once and right once. > > Post 1371 shows that everyone but Oredigger voted for Justin. > > [Post 1371](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=10954553&postcount=1371) Yes, but the testerizer vote was the close/decisive one. It seems more useful for analysis purposes. Who do you suspect? You seem to have omitted that part of your analysis. ---
**Author:** ![AllWalker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/db5fbb/32.png) [@AllWalker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AllWalker)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2009, 1:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1411 "2009-03-23T01:22:58Z")
The beauty with this is that the testeriser is no longer a death sentence, so we can vote to test with less guilt. Yay! If we assume **MHaye** and **Tel** are innocent, and we know a large number of dead innocent townies, then a review of conflicts past and present is in order. The XPerienced players: **fluiddruid** has a history of going after **MHaye** and voting with the crowd. **Oredigger** has a history of going after **Daphne** and **Tel** , but so odes half the town. I have more to say but it will have to wait. Damn other commitments! ---
**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2009, 2:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1412 "2009-03-23T02:03:22Z")
> [@Telcontar](#): > > So we have two players who have been “right” twice, myself and **rexnervous**. We have one player who has been wrong twice,\*\* Mahaloth\*\*. We have incomplete information on one player, **Adrian II**. We also have two wolves, meaning that at least one wolf has (probably) substantially contributed to the death of another. > > We also have **MHaye** , who rather solidly contributed to the death of\*\* Justin\*\* and may have cracked the testerizer (on one hand) but has attracted the suspicion of known innocents ( **Zeriel** ). My read on him is innocent, but I suppose we don’t know that per se. > > Hmm. I think it would be helpful if some of the less consistently vocal players voiced some of their suspicions. **Mahaloth** ,\*\* Jimmy\*\*, and **Adrian II** in particular. Well, my suspicions at least have been public record for the most part. I started with yourself, obviously, and I have allowed that to subside primarily because of your test result. I’m happy with the results of that. I have serious problems with some of your playstyle ideosyncracies, a cause for suspicion that led me to my next player of interest, **MHaye**. **MHaye** is a player who I really seriously think played a very anti-town style for the vast majority of the game. However, we don’t have a better theory for the testerizer than his, and it doesn’t seem at all likely that, all things considered, it would be a reasonable idea for one wolf to ensure the death of another by also giving town the key to the testerizer. So unless and until that’s disproven, I have to consider **MHaye** as fairly safe, despite the peculiarities of his early play (to avoid the appearance of a smudge here, specifically I refer to his couple of alignment “slips” and his dogged attacks on **Zeriel** , who obviously didn’t deserve them. So, at this point, I’m starting almost fresh. **fluiddruid** struck me as a very good player when she was posting, which, I am aware, doesn’t suggest anything about her alignment. I thought she made several key pro-town contributions, however. The fact that she started a bandwagon going on **Freudian Slit** concerned me a bit, and there were a couple of fleeting impressions I had that she was playing a sleight of hand game with **Elendil** earlier. However, like I say, she’s a better player than I am so it’s hard for me to secondguess. With her gone I can’t say I’m particularly inclined to put her replacement in either category, so I’ll wait for **Adrian mk II** before I draw any conclusions. With one post to go on, I have very little feeling either way. Of the remaining players, I think **rexnervous** has been consistently pro-town, so I at least would look beyond him. That leaves **Oredigger** , **AllWalker** , and **Mahaloth**. I’m mainly interested in **Oredigger** and **Mahaloth**. **Oredigger** is interesting because as I leaf back through his posts I see a lot of contrarianism and a lot of sort of voting independence – votes for the record, ‘hypothetical’ arguments, things of that nature. The sort of thing that keeps you in the mix without committing you in any real sense, is what my more suspicious side tells me, but on the other hand, as was the case during the **Seeker** fiasco, I’m not really sure I’m picking up any real strong sense of consistent anti-town behavior (or anti-town _omissions_, which are probably more important given the way the game has gone thus far). Just… strange behavior. In a more specific vein, I’ll note that **Daphne** on reread expressed doubts about **Oredigger** several times and that when she was killed, **Oredigger** suggested a reason why she was killed - for encouraging town to talk. Not the most ironclad example of a misdirection, but something, maybe. In any event, relying mostly on the aforementioned “float like a butterfly” tactic, I’m suspicious. Not enough to hang my hat on as yet, because I think **Mahaloth** is a better option. **Mahaloth** has been asked several times to please be a little more direct in outlining his or her reasoning behind several posts (most recently just above; also during the early day discussion in the previous day). This is an indication of caution, but, when the requests are ignored, I think that’s an indication of a much stronger desire to keep one’s head down. This is exactly what **Elendil** did. I think that such extreme hesitation – which is couple much of the time with hedging language about “maybe changing later” or “I’m really considering changing my vote to…” is an indication of an attempt to build a defense (to say nothing of the post that said “don’t think I’m a wolf if I don’t get back soon enough.” Why would you be so concerned with being able to defend yourself if you weren’t waiting for it to happen? Also, to be blunt, a freaking lot of **Mahaloth’s** posts have been complete wastes – night posts, posts just pre- or just post- the critical voting periods, questions about technicalities, and all that. There’s not a lot to go on, and what there is to go on is very cautious and nowhere clearly pro-town. Finally, and this probably means nothing, but depending on how good of a wolf you think **Justin** was (I think not so fantastic), that final little back-and-forth between the two of them could be seen as a pretty transparent reverse-reverse ploy. But, you know, it could also be a wolf trying to stir the pot. So there’s that. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2009, 2:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1413 "2009-03-23T02:15:37Z")
OK, so I want to address issues with my posts soon, but I’m busy right now. Also, I’m not sure when I will be able to post tomorrow, but I should be able to post some kind of analysis before tomorrow night(all small “d’s” and “n’s”. I don’t think a vast majority of my posts have been fluff or Night posts. I think that the last 2 Days have been slower, in terms of discussion, for everyone. I’m not sure who to suspect anymore. I used to suspect Telcontar a lot, but have seen my suspicions drop in the last Day. I suspected Mhaye, also, but as everyone has just reminded me, he potentially solved the testerizer. Anyway, let me review some things and put together a suspect list. I guess you can test me, too, if you want. I don’t mind and if MHaye is right, I’ll come out “clean” anyway. If MHaye has solved the testerizer, I am 100% safe from lynching and am only at risk of Night death. ---
**Author:** ![AllWalker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/db5fbb/32.png) [@AllWalker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AllWalker)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2009, 3:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1414 "2009-03-23T03:55:54Z")
> [@Mahaloth](#): > > OK, so I want to address issues with my posts soon, but I’m busy right now. > > Also, I’m not sure when I will be able to post tomorrow, but I should be able to post some kind of analysis before tomorrow night(all small “d’s” and “n’s”. > > I don’t think a vast majority of my posts have been fluff or Night posts. I think that the last 2 Days have been slower, in terms of discussion, for everyone. I’m not sure who to suspect anymore. I used to suspect Telcontar a lot, but have seen my suspicions drop in the last Day. I suspected Mhaye, also, but as everyone has just reminded me, he potentially solved the testerizer. > > Anyway, let me review some things and put together a suspect list. > > I guess you can test me, too, if you want. I don’t mind and if MHaye is right, I’ll come out “clean” anyway. If MHaye has solved the testerizer, I am 100% safe from lynching and am only at risk of Night death. Night death becoming more likely, as you become a confirmed innocent. Just saying, being tested is still bad. it’s just less bad. ---
**Author:** ![Oredigger77](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/oredigger77/32/3181_2.png) [@Oredigger77](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oredigger77)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2009, 3:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1415 "2009-03-23T15:26:01Z")
Hopefully we’ve figured out the Testerizer but I don’t think that MHaye is necessarily a townie for doing it. Whoever figured it out would get confirmed townie status so a wolf figuring it out basically can guarantee that they wouldn’t be lynched. I don’t think we need to test MHaye any time soon though. I think we should keep the possibility in the back of our minds though when we get down to the end. Right now we have ‘confirmed’ town in Tel so I think it’s a good time to start following his lead a bit. I put confirmed in quotes because until we test another wolf it’s just theory. I think its time that we look again to going after the quiet players. To that extent I think we should give Adrian/fluid a pass at least for toDay because it appears that Fluid was really busy with work and that would explain the limited participation. With fluid/Adrian and MHaye having reasons not to be look at too closely toDay the next lowest volume poster is Jimmy. I’m not voting that direction yet but that is where I’m going to focus my first reread. ---
**Author:** ![Telcontar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3bc359/32.png) [@Telcontar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telcontar)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2009, 3:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1416 "2009-03-23T15:28:37Z")
I notice that no one has cast even a tentative test vote this week. Not shocking, it’s early, but I do so enjoy watching people i’m suspicious of argue. Brings out alliances etc. Anyway, to get things moving in a more focused manner: We have a distinct shortage of information on **Adrian II**. I honestly can’t remember much of what **fluiddruid** was like, they hadn’t fully participated for quite awhile before they were subbed. A reread makes me somewhat suspicious, but it’s hard to capture the in the moment feeling. There’s something to be said for testing **Adrian II** to avoid a situation where they end up flying below the radar right to the end. Also, taking rex’s analysis of at least one experienced player as a wolf (meaning at least one of **Oredigger77, Mhaye** , and **Fluiddruid** (now **Adrian II)**, **fluiddruid i** s one of the most suspicious of that set. What do people think of **fluiddruid’s** pre subbing record? ---
**Author:** ![rexnervous](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e9c0ed/32.png) [@rexnervous](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rexnervous)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2009, 4:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1417 "2009-03-23T16:06:52Z")
> [@Telcontar](#): > > I notice that no one has cast even a tentative test vote this week. Not shocking, it’s early, but I do so enjoy watching people i’m suspicious of argue. Brings out alliances etc. > > Anyway, to get things moving in a more focused manner: We have a distinct shortage of information on **Adrian II**. I honestly can’t remember much of what **fluiddruid** was like, they hadn’t fully participated for quite awhile before they were subbed. A reread makes me somewhat suspicious, but it’s hard to capture the in the moment feeling. There’s something to be said for testing **Adrian II** to avoid a situation where they end up flying below the radar right to the end. Also, taking rex’s analysis of at least one experienced player as a wolf (meaning at least one of **Oredigger77, Mhaye** , and **Fluiddruid** (now **Adrian II)**, **fluiddruid i** s one of the most suspicious of that set. > > What do people think of **fluiddruid’s** pre subbing record? I did an [analysis](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=10929717#post10929717) of \*\*fluiddruid \*\*right before he stopped posting, more or less. At that time, I had him leaning slightly town. Here’s my take on where we stand - if you are pro-town and are not actively posting analysis, thoughts and otherwise substantive posts, and frequently, you are hurting us. Despite my “look at the odds” take on experienced players, I don’t know if I feel comfortable enough with that to base a test vote on it. Yet. I need to go back and review more, but I will place a test vote now: **test Mahaloth** This is based on his vote of \*\*MHaye \*\*just upthread, and that on a skim I tend to agree with **Jimmy Chitwood** ’s analysis Back later ---
**Author:** ![Telcontar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3bc359/32.png) [@Telcontar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telcontar)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2009, 5:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1418 "2009-03-23T17:04:05Z")
> [@rexnervous](#): > > I did an [analysis](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=10929717#post10929717) of \*\*fluiddruid \*\*right before he stopped posting, more or less. At that time, I had him leaning slightly town. > > Here’s my take on where we stand - if you are pro-town and are not actively posting analysis, thoughts and otherwise substantive posts, and frequently, you are hurting us. > > Despite my “look at the odds” take on experienced players, I don’t know if I feel comfortable enough with that to base a test vote on it. Yet. > > I need to go back and review more, but I will place a test vote now: > > **test Mahaloth** > > This is based on his vote of \*\*MHaye \*\*just upthread, and that on a skim I tend to agree with **Jimmy Chitwood** ’s analysis > > Back later Jimmy presents a good case against **Mahaloth** but: 1.) I’m suspicious of Jimmy as well (fairly low participation, rarely stuck his neck out until recently). 2.) **Mahaloth** ’s voting to test **Mhaye** and then changing his mind when it’s pointed out that **Mhaye** came up with the testerizer theory is too sloppy to look scummy (to me at least). Having said that, **Mahaloth** is the only one i have as being “wrong” twice. Also, I’m torn on the experienced player question. On one hand, it’d be really odd if pede didn’t toss the wolves a bone and give them an experienced leader. On the other… **zeriel** should have died days ago so I could have died last night. If we’re right about the testerizer, the wolves almost can’t win at this point. It’s a newbie mistake to let innocents sit on the table, and the wolves have been making it. ---
**Author:** ![\_Undecided\_Adrian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/_/eada6e/32.png) [@\_Undecided\_Adrian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/_Undecided_Adrian)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2009, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1419 "2009-03-23T17:25:24Z")
I understand the feeling that my host body was flying under the radar lately, but as that was apparently not for game-related reasons I hope it doesn’t count too much against me and especially my new self. Since my last posts, suspicion towards **Mahalot** certainly has increased, though. He hasn’t answered **Telcontar’s** question at all, **Jimmy** makes a good point about similar playstile to **EH** , and the post **Mahalot** did write was not too short but seems rather evasive with little content. It can’t hurt to put at least a bit of pressure towards the promised analysis, therefore **Test Mahalot** NETA: **Telcontar** , I think the role assignment was random, **rexnervous’s** analysis wouldn’t make much sense otherwise as well. Both variants suggest that one experienced wolf is likely, but with both it is far from certain. I agree we should keep it in mind, but for the moment there are perhaps better ways than this “metagamey” sort of decision. ---
**Author:** ![Trepa\_Mayfield](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/edb3f5/32.png) [@Trepa\_Mayfield](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trepa_Mayfield)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2009, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1420 "2009-03-23T19:45:42Z")
Mahaloth (2): rexnervous, [Undecided] Adrian the II [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692.md?page=70) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692.md?page=72)