# Werewolf (Mafia)--The Split \[Signups--In progress\] **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [February 13, 2009, 3:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692 "2009-02-13T15:44:54Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 72
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2009, 8:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1421 "2009-03-23T20:16:21Z")
OK, here I go. I’m no genius, but this is what I have currently. If I miss any questions directed at me, please re-ask them. I am not dodging anything, but may have missed your post. 🙂 I have been busy all day today and haven’t had a chance to post much. I’m not surprised about collecting a couple test votes. I mean, I made the goof of not realizing MHaye was the one who helped us with the testerizer. I really did think it was rexnervous and if I have to be tested, I’m not totally sure that’s a bad thing. If we test a townie(like me) and it does come back correctly according to MHaye’s solution, then we will be more likely to correctly lynch a wolf. It’s always a bit of a guess, and eliminating me(or any townie) is not particularly bad. It means I will probably die in the Night, but it will show that you can trust me for the two days before the lynch. Anyway, I would prefer not to be tested because I know I’m a townie and getting a positive hit on wolf would be massively helpful(obviously), I am not going to make a whole thing of it. Now, over the past two Days, I’ve discovered that my primary lead suspects are most likely not wolves. **Telconatar** , who I currently have removed from my suspect list, has passed the testerizer(I think) and I just get a better sense from his posting. Viewing him as a townie, I see that his aggressive play has helped far more than hurt. If he’s a wolf, congratulations to him for fooling me.  My second suspicion was\*\* MHaye.\*\* If he has solved the testerizer, he is probably townie, though I’m not convinced that this is the case completely. Look how quickly I was called out for test voting him! I admit, my testing of him was a goof, but I’m not totally certain that it eliminates him from wolfiness. However, he is no longer a main suspect of mine. I’m having a very hard time getting a read at this point. I assume we are down to about 2 wolves left(possibly 1 if only 3 existed). Because of this, I think the wolf/wolves are walking on egg shells and making it very difficult to get a read. Having said that, from my most recent suspect list, I still suspect \*\*f\*\*\*\*luiddruid/Adrian **for a couple reasons. I am only going off** fluiddruid’\*\*s time, of course. We have to go back to when fluid was posting more. She never posted a ton, and many of her posts weren’t all that great, but she/he was one of the first people to push for testing and killing Freudian Slit, and actually tried to convince people to not vote for Elendil Heir. Read the post here, where the suspicion of Freudian Slit began: [Post 462, from Day Two](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=10861337&postcount=462) This was all on Day Two, but went unnoticed to me until I re-read fluiddruid’s postings from the beginning of Day One. I know it is not a ton of evidence, but it is something and that’s all I have right now. Anyway, it is very hard to get a read on who is a wolf at this point, but I will vote to test: test fluiddruid/Adrian ---
**Author:** ![Telcontar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3bc359/32.png) [@Telcontar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telcontar)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2009, 8:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1422 "2009-03-23T20:20:14Z")
> [@Mahaloth](#): > > Having said that, from my most recent suspect list, I still suspect \*\*f\*\*\*\*luiddruid/Adrian **for a couple reasons. I am only going off** fluiddruid’\*\*s time, of course. We have to go back to when fluid was posting more. She never posted a ton, and many of her posts weren’t all that great, but she/he was one of the first people to push for testing and killing Freudian Slit, and actually tried to convince people to not vote for Elendil Heir. > > Read the post here, where the suspicion of Freudian Slit began: > > [Post 462, from Day Two](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=10861337&postcount=462) Where do you see fluiddruid defending elendil’s heir (or do you mean by implication, going after FS as a substitute)? I didn’t catch that post on my read-through. ---
**Author:** ![\_Undecided\_Adrian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/_/eada6e/32.png) [@\_Undecided\_Adrian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/_Undecided_Adrian)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2009, 9:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1423 "2009-03-23T21:35:24Z")
I can also see nothing wrong with the quote you posted, **Mahalot**. Of course the accusation is not firmly based on facts, but that was rather early in the game and doesn’t surprise me. But **fluiddruid** definitely gave an explanation of her votes there, which still sounds reasonable to me (without rereading **FS’s** posts now). There was also nothing underhanded going on, she just came out strongly and in the open. Just going after a townie in itself, especially on the second day, is not a very good scum tell. The accusation of trying to protect **EH** is more serious, but you didn’t cite that one, do you have a link for that? (Weird situation, being forced to ask for a cite for something “I” did…) ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2009, 11:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1424 "2009-03-23T23:44:10Z")
> [@Telcontar](#): > > Where do you see fluiddruid defending elendil’s heir (or do you mean by implication, going after FS as a substitute)? I didn’t catch that post on my read-through. By implication…sorry if that wasn’t clearer. And Adrian, there is an “h” at the end of my name. It’s Mahaloth. ---
**Author:** ![\_Undecided\_Adrian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/_/eada6e/32.png) [@\_Undecided\_Adrian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/_Undecided_Adrian)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2009, 12:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1425 "2009-03-24T00:11:38Z")
Whoops, sorry. At least I was consistent 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Telcontar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3bc359/32.png) [@Telcontar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telcontar)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2009, 5:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1426 "2009-03-24T05:04:47Z")
I’m a little concerned that there has been so little discussion, if we were about to test a wolf you’d think the other wolf would at least have voted :-P. Open to persuasion but for the moment: test Mahaloth ---
**Author:** ![AllWalker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/db5fbb/32.png) [@AllWalker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AllWalker)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2009, 9:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1427 "2009-03-24T09:10:57Z")
Well, we have to test someone. **Test Mahaloth** What if he turns up alphabetical? Do we skip the lynch toDay, or fire randomly into the crowd? (Of course, phrasing it like that makes my opinion clear, as well as my tendancy to mix metaphors) ---
**Author:** ![\_Undecided\_Adrian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/_/eada6e/32.png) [@\_Undecided\_Adrian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/_Undecided_Adrian)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2009, 9:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1428 "2009-03-24T09:34:16Z")
> [@Telcontar](#): > > I’m a little concerned that there has been so little discussion, if we were about to test a wolf you’d think the other wolf would at least have voted :-P. Not necessarily - the wolves’ only chance now is to keep as low a profile as possible. **AllWalker** , I don’t think we should lynch someone we haven’t tested, now that we’ve figured that damn thing out. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2009, 1:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1429 "2009-03-24T13:50:23Z")
> [@AllWalker](#): > > Well, we have to test someone. > > **Test Mahaloth** > > What if he turns up alphabetical? Do we skip the lynch toDay, or fire randomly into the crowd? > > (Of course, phrasing it like that makes my opinion clear, as well as my tendancy to mix metaphors) Yes, if I’m tested and the testerizer is aphabetically based, this \* is\* going to happen. I’m not sure what is going to be the best course of action. **Telcontar** , just take this as a hypothetical. If I test as a townie(which I should), is this when you suggest not lynching? Or is it still better to try and lynch on the off shot we could essentially win the game(or come close)? By the way, what do other people think right now? This Day is the quietest yet. ---
**Author:** ![Oredigger77](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/oredigger77/32/3181_2.png) [@Oredigger77](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oredigger77)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2009, 3:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1430 "2009-03-24T15:09:21Z")
> [@pedescribe](#): > > Players still alive: > > Allwalker > [Undecided] Adrian the II > Jimmy Chitwood > MHaye > Mahaloth > Oredigger77 > Rexnervous > Telcontar The way I figure it there are 2 wolves in this group, which means 6 townies. At this point we have 1.5 mislynches. A no lynch costs us ½ of a mislynch. I think we should hold off lynching for a couple of Days. Assuming our current theory on the tester is correct we have one confirmed townie. This gives us a pool for the scum to hide in of 2/7 if the testee comes up town we would be faced with a pool for the lynch of 2/6. Assuming the wolves aren’t idiots they will kill one of the confirmed so we will still be at 2/6 for the next Day’s test again assuming the test comes up town we would be faced with a lynch of 2/5. Again the wolves would kill confirmed town and the third Day would find us testing 2/5 and if the testee came up town we would go into the lynch 2/4. If we passed one more time we would find our selves at lynch or lose and going into the tested with a group of 2/4 assuming another town test we would have a pool of 2/3. I think those odds are pretty good. Two things that will help us out would be not testing randomly and going after the most suspicious. This would give us the most information and in the worst case keep us with two confirmed townies. ---
**Author:** ![Trepa\_Mayfield](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/edb3f5/32.png) [@Trepa\_Mayfield](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trepa_Mayfield)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2009, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1431 "2009-03-24T16:35:53Z")
Mahaloth (4): rexnervous, [Undecided] Adrian the II, Telcontar, Allwalker [Undecided] Adrian the II (1): Mahaloth ---
**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2009, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1432 "2009-03-24T16:48:40Z")
It is a little disappointing that the most analysis that we’ve seen today has been my list of suspicions, considering that that analysis was a little bit of an idea dump and not so much me being totally gung-ho about going after **Mahaloth**. This is the sum and substance of our convictions at this point? Ideally, somebody would have maybe presented an alternative to my response, but I guess mine was so fantastic that everyone just got in line. I don’t want to not vote at all, obviously, and my feelings are known, but it’s a shame that there’s not at least discussion of another perspective out there. Everybody being open to persuasion is good in principle, but, you know, there will be presumably be attempts underway to persuade us in the wrong direction, in which case a little conversation becomes imperative. We still have another day. It’s a shame I’m just making the lead more insurmountable at this point, but I’m not sure that it’s better for me to vocally abstain from voting than to just get my most confident vote on the books, though, so **Test Mahaloth** ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2009, 5:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1433 "2009-03-24T17:23:08Z")
> [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](#): > > I This is the sum and substance of our convictions at this point? > > \*\* I’m the one being voted for and I have to say that, yes, it appears so. I’m not sure if people are afraid of dying themselves, or what it is, but my one goof-up about MHaye doesn’t seem enough to warrant a test or a lynch. Having said that, I’m hard pressed to point any fingers. Most of my primary suspicions have died or are probably townies. The wolves, despite losing the last two lynches, have played a good game. I’m assuming I’m going to be tested tomorrow, though. Oh well. ---
**Author:** ![MHaye](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/bbe5ce/32.png) [@MHaye](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MHaye)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2009, 5:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1434 "2009-03-24T17:45:54Z")
If we have solved the riddle of the Testerizer (and I suspect that we have) then once we get a read from the machine, we should decide whether to lynch the tested or not. The Testerizer can, if used properly, build up a group of players who we know or believe are Town-aligned. The people in the other group (the unknown pool) are those who we should be considering for lynching. The Werewolves can only be hiding in that pool, you see. Up to now I’ve been against a no lynch because we don’t get information. However, we’re now getting information out of the Testerizer without a lynch. Furthermore, it’s an information source that cannot be eliminated from the game, a fact which has some implications for game balance that I haven’t fully evaluated yet. Thus, at this point, by skipping a lynch or two, we gain an extra single use of the Testerizer, thus enabling us to shrink the unknown pool without risking shrinking the numbers of Town. I’ll be back after I’ve eaten some tea with a vote for testing. ---
**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2009, 7:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1435 "2009-03-24T19:00:39Z")
… unless we’re wrong, of course. In which case no lynch is a death warrant. As **Telcontar** , I think, said earlier, that must put you in quite a bind being not entirely certain whether we’ve cracked the test results. ---
**Author:** ![Telcontar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3bc359/32.png) [@Telcontar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telcontar)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2009, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1436 "2009-03-24T19:55:37Z")
> [@Mahaloth](#): > > Yes, if I’m tested and the testerizer is aphabetically based, this \* is\* going to happen. I’m not sure what is going to be the best course of action. > > **Telcontar** , just take this as a hypothetical. If I test as a townie(which I should), is this when you suggest not lynching? > > Or is it still better to try and lynch on the off shot we could essentially win the game(or come close)? > > By the way, what do other people think right now? This Day is the quietest yet. At this point i think we should hold off on the no lynch. A shot in the dark might still hit and the pool of potential suspects isn’t really all that large. > [@'\[Undecided](#): > > Adrian;10966843’]Not necessarily - the wolves’ only chance now is to keep as low a profile as possible. > > **AllWalker** , I don’t think we should lynch someone we haven’t tested, now that we’ve figured that damn thing out. I completely disagree about the wolves. They could attempt to slip under the radar, or they could be as blatant as humanly possible. I think it’s entirely possible that **Mhaye** is a wolf (in fact the more I think about his voting around the death of\*\* EH\*\* the more I suspect him). Hmm, if **Mahaloth \*\* tested as innocent I’d probably want to lynch Jimmy, so I should probably be voting to test Jimmy rather than Mahaloth. I outlined my suspicion of him awhile ago, but mostly it comes down to 1.) It made sense for the wolves to be quiet before and it currently makes sense for them to be vocal and 2.) Jimmy was quiet before and is becoming vocal now. untest Mahaloth test** Jimmy\*\* As of right now i’d be happy to lynch the other if the test shows one to be clean. ---
**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2009, 7:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1437 "2009-03-24T19:57:28Z")
Now we’re getting somewhere. Of course, it isn’t true that I was all that quiet before, you know, if you care to document it, but at least the friggin’ needle is moving. ---
**Author:** ![MHaye](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/bbe5ce/32.png) [@MHaye](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MHaye)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2009, 8:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1438 "2009-03-24T20:35:41Z")
So, here’s the full Technicolour Vote Chart, with new Day 5 and added colours for previous Days. Day 2. The final votes for the test are found in [post=10867816]601[/post].**Freudian Slit (9): Daphne Black, Fluiddruid, rexnervous, SoT&B, Justin Credible, Telcontar, Mahaloth, Elendil’s Heir, [Undecided] Adrian Telcontar (2): Jimmy Chitwood, Allwalker Seeker of Truth and Beauty (2): Freudian Slit, Ichini Sanshigo Daphne Black (1): Oredigger77**The final vote count for the lynch of Freudian Slit is in post [post=10882832]727[/post].**Freudian Slit (15): Fluiddruid, Elendil’s Heir, Rexnervous, Jimmy Chitwood, Oredigger77, DaphneBlack, [Undecided] Adrian, Mahaloth, Ichini Sanshigo, Telcontar, SoT&B, Allwalker, MHaye, Justin Credible, Zeriel Seeker of Truth and Beauty (1): Freudian Slit** Day 3. The final votes for the Test are found in post [post=10904128]892[/post].**SoT&B (10): Justin Credible, Daphne Black, Allwalker, MHaye, [Undecided] Adrian, Mahaloth, Telcontar, fluiddruid, Elendil’s Heir, Jimmy Chitwood Telcontar (2): Rexnervous, Oredigger77 Elendil’s Heir (1): SoT&B Mhaye (1): Zeriel**The final Lynch vote count is in post [post=10910842]993[/post].**SoT&B (10): Telcontar, fluiddruid, Jimmy Chitwood, [Undecided] Adrian, AllWalker, Justin Credible, Zeriel, Mahaloth, Mhaye, Elindil’s Heir Elindil’s Heir (3): rexnervous, Oredigger77, DaphneBlack** Day 4. Final Testerizer votes in post [post=10926376]1155[/post].**Telcontar (6): Mahaloth, Justin Credible, Jimmy Chitwood, Zeriel, Oredigger77, rexnervous Oredigger77 (5): Telcontar, Allwalker, Fluiddruid, DaphneBlack, Elendil’s Heir**While the last lynch was in post [post=10933552]1226[/post]**Elendil’s Heir (4): rexnervous, Oredigger77, Telcontar, DaphneBlack Telcontar (3): Mahaloth, Justin Credible, Jimmy Chitwood Oredigger77 (2): Fluiddruid, Allwalker MHaye (1): Zeriel DaphneBlack (1): Elendil’s Heir** Day 5. Final Testerizer votes in post [post=10948718]1330[/post].**Justin Credible (5): Telcontar, Mhaye, rexnervous, AllWalker, Jimmy Chitwood MHaye (4): Zeriel, Mahaloth, Justin Credible, Oredigger77**While the final lynch vote was in post [post=10954553]1371[/post].**Justin Credible (7): Telcontar, Mahaloth, Allwalker, Zeriel, Mhaye, Rexnervous, Jimmy Chitwood Mhaye (1): Oredigger77 Zeriel (1): Justin Credible** Looking at the lynch of Day 4 in the light of Day 5’s knowledge, we now know that at least one Werewolf was voting for Telcontar; and we also believe that Telcontar’s Test results are those of a Townsman. For Telcontar to be a Werewolf, he would have to be that special kind of Wolf known as a Godfather - a Werewolf who appears to the detective as a Townsperson, and not as what he truly is. That role is _incredibly_ valuable to the Werewolves. The only reason for a Werewolf to vote for a Godfather type like that is in the late game to gain huge amounts of cred (for doing something that Werewolves would never do). But it wasn’t late enough to risk that. Basically, I don’t think Justin would have kept his vote on Telcontar if Telcontar was a Godfather type. (The only other reason to vote for the Godfather is if the player makes a crosspost, or some slip that makes their true alignment _quite_ clear. ---
**Author:** ![Trepa\_Mayfield](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/edb3f5/32.png) [@Trepa\_Mayfield](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trepa_Mayfield)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2009, 9:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1439 "2009-03-24T21:04:41Z")
Mahaloth (5): rexnervous, [Undecided] Adrian the II, Telcontar, Allwalker, Jimmy Chitwood [Undecided] Adrian the II (1): Mahaloth Jimmy Chitwood (1): Telcontar ---
**Author:** ![Telcontar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3bc359/32.png) [@Telcontar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telcontar)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2009, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1440 "2009-03-24T21:15:23Z")
> [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](#): > > Now we’re getting somewhere. > > Of course, it isn’t true that I was all that quiet before, you know, if you care to document it, but at least the friggin’ needle is moving. It’s really hard to document “quiet,” though if you want to document “loud” I’d be happy to see it. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692.md?page=71) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692.md?page=73)