# West Virginia: does it matter? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 8, 2008, 1:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/west-virginia-does-it-matter/448555 "2008-05-08T13:44:27Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 8
**Author:** ![Gozu](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gozu/32/6615_2.png) [@Gozu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gozu)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2008, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/west-virginia-does-it-matter/448555/141 "2008-05-18T16:43:56Z")
[QUOTE=ElvisL1ves] I still support HRC. [/QUOTE] You’re like the Davy Crockett of Hillary Clinton. Your dog-like loyalty to her is truly commendable. What odds do you give her of winning the Nom at this point? 5%? 10%? 20%? How low must the odds be before you give up on her? ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2008, 4:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/west-virginia-does-it-matter/448555/142 "2008-05-18T16:54:38Z")
[QUOTE=Gozu] What odds do you give her of winning the Nom at this point? 5%? 10%? 20%? [/QUOTE] In post 119, he spoke as if her victory was a certainty. ---
**Author:** ![Gozu](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gozu/32/6615_2.png) [@Gozu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gozu)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2008, 5:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/west-virginia-does-it-matter/448555/143 "2008-05-18T17:09:13Z")
[QUOTE=RTFirefly] In post 119, he spoke as if her victory was a certainty. [/QUOTE] Oh, I’m sure he didn’t really mean that. Sometimes, people get carried away in their enthusiasm. I’m guilty of that as well. ---
**Author:** ![Merkwurdigliebe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/74df32/32.png) [@Merkwurdigliebe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merkwurdigliebe)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2008, 5:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/west-virginia-does-it-matter/448555/144 "2008-05-18T17:50:42Z")
**ElvisLives** I figure I’d just add that this Electoral College map is not exactly written in stone. If you have looked at it periodically, as have I, you’d notice there are times when Obama is over 300 EVs, and Clinton was losing to McCain. I notice you never trotted this map out then. You act like the map has always been like this, but people like me know better. I don’t know why Obama does so poorly in this particular one, but I also know that he has done far better in the past. Things fluctuate obviously. And I’m sure he’ll get a boost now he’s the defacto nominee. ---
**Author:** ![tomndebb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b9e5f3/32.png) [@tomndebb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tomndebb)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2008, 6:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/west-virginia-does-it-matter/448555/145 "2008-05-18T18:19:41Z")
[QUOTE=Gozu] Your dog-like loyalty . . . [/QUOTE] Let’s leave this sort of comparison of other posters out of this Forum. (And, please: no remarks from the peanut gallery that it was intended as a compliment because dogs are so faithful.) [/Moderating] ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2008, 12:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/west-virginia-does-it-matter/448555/146 "2008-05-19T00:10:23Z")
[QUOTE=RTFirefly] I should add that whatever lesson Obama needs to learn from WV isn’t strictly a WV lesson, although WV and KY fall into its wheelhouse. It’s a lesson about the purple areas on [the black-and-purple map](http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/194870.php) at the link. [/QUOTE] And once we’re out of that bit of troublesome geography, [rural voters like Obama just fine](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9814902&postcount=55). I’m leaving the WV thread; feel free to join me in the OR/KY thread, which is where the link goes. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2008, 12:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/west-virginia-does-it-matter/448555/147 "2008-05-19T00:35:02Z")
[QUOTE=RTFirefly] The point is that Gore doesn’t have grounds to disagree with me. [/quote] Please. That was all in response to your continued assertion that a popular-vote lead means something. > [@](#): > > All you are doing is speculating. I don’t plan on rebutting meaningless speculation. I’ve provided the relevant data. You have provided nothing, just claims that the votes Obama needs would somehow apparate. And I’m speculating? 😃 > [@](#): > > At this point, we don’t have a clue as to what the race will actually _look like_. Only by choosing to ignore all recent precedent can you say that. We do know what GOP strategies and tactics have been, and how effectively they’ve worked. It would be foolish to claim we don’t have a clue what they’ll try this time. But that’s what you just \*did \* say, isn’t it? 😛 > [@](#): > > Until then, we not only don’t know what the _map_ looks like, but Obama’s 5-point lead is untested. You really do need to go read up on this Electoral College stuff. It’s a fascinating subject. I recommend it highly. The GOP strategists have, I can asssure you. > [@](#): > > The 1992 and 1996 maps looked very different from those of 2000 and 2004. Only in the sense that the Dem candidate understood how to navigate it. The fundamentals? Not in any significant and discernble way. > [@](#): > > So do we know yet what the dominant messages of this campaign are? Hell, no. You don’t know what they’ll be, and neither do I. The more you repeat that, the more desperate you sound to convince yourself. For the McCain message, you can be pretty sure it’s about winning in Iraq by ending the screwups, keeping taxes down, and a tinge of race-baiting. For the Dems, if it’s Obama, it certainly ought to be possible to at least hint at what his messages would be by now, since they’ve already convinced \*you \* so completely. So try again. :dubious: > [@](#): > > What I do know is that (a) both Hillary and Obama have strengths and weaknesses as candidates, and it’s hard for me to make a comparison between them on those grounds that I feel is reliable; and (b) I’d much rather see Obama in the White House. Your (a) is ducking, and your (b) does not even follow from it. Oh, well, this is the forum for Witnessing, after all. > [@](#): > > Long before WV, we’ve known that the best predictor of whether a nonblack voter would vote for Hillary or Obama is _age_. The obvious means of ensuring that this doesn’t become a problem for Obama in the general? Point out that McCain, like Bush, has wanted to privatize Social Security for many years, and [has reiterated that desire in the present campaign](http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2007-10-26-mccain-huckabee_N.htm): > Yep, that’s gonna play well with middle-aged (and older) blue-collar types. Finally a worthwhile point from you. I \*knew \* you could do it. Yes, it’s possible to scare people who have little recourse, but generally \*positive \* alternatives are more convincing. Now, how about the problem of basing a campaign platform on what \*you \* think “they” should like instead of simply asking them? Or the attitude “they” might well see as being pandered to, i.e. condescended to? Or their skepticism about actually having those nice promises followed up upon? Shouldn’t that be what you and Obama learn from the WV renunciation, and the upcoming KY one and all the others upcoming possibly including OR? **Merk** , you too can feel free to provide supporting data of your own at any time. **Gozu** , can you point out \*which \* post of mine you’re quoting from there? :dubious: :tap tap: ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2008, 12:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/west-virginia-does-it-matter/448555/148 "2008-05-19T00:43:17Z")
[QUOTE=ElvisL1ves] Please. That was all in response to your continued assertion that a popular-vote lead means something. [/QUOTE] I believe his point was that if Gore had won the popular vote by 1% he would have likely won. ---
**Author:** ![Merkwurdigliebe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/74df32/32.png) [@Merkwurdigliebe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merkwurdigliebe)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2008, 1:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/west-virginia-does-it-matter/448555/149 "2008-05-19T01:27:49Z")
No I’m done trying to argue with you. It’s pointless. Come get me when it’s October and you’re supporting Obama 😃 ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2008, 1:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/west-virginia-does-it-matter/448555/150 "2008-05-19T01:29:23Z")
**Elvis** , all I can say is, what a pile of claptrap. You ‘rebut’ one sentence of mine, while ignoring the next sentence which effectively responds to your rebuttal, and do other similar bad-faith debating garbage. Up until now, there’s been some sense that I was debating someone who I totally disagreed with, right down to assumptions, but at least having something vaguely resembling a good-faith debate. Not anymore. I’ve apparently had more patience with your approach to debate than a lot of people around here have, but you’ve exhausted mine too. So the thread is all yours, AFAIAC. Enjoy wild, wonderful West Virginia. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2008, 12:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/west-virginia-does-it-matter/448555/151 "2008-05-20T00:14:36Z")
[QUOTE=DigitalC] I believe his point was that if Gore had won the popular vote by 1% he would have likely won. [/QUOTE] Doesn’t follow. Perhaps you ought to look into this Electoral College stuff _yourself_. **Merk** , **RTF** , you could just \*say \* you got nothin’. :rolleyes: But it’s okay; any reader can tell that already. ---
**Author:** ![Liberal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/848f3c/32.png) [@Liberal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Liberal)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2008, 12:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/west-virginia-does-it-matter/448555/152 "2008-05-20T00:48:41Z")
I’m a little surprised at Hillary’s stupidity. Surely, it’s pretense. She’s bound to know that popular vote doesn’t count for a hill of beans — it’s delegates that matter. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2008, 1:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/west-virginia-does-it-matter/448555/153 "2008-05-20T01:16:02Z")
If Obama lost WV because it will not support a black candidate ,it is very significant.It shows the depth of bigotry in at least WV and indicates it may be a real problem in the general election. I do not like that Hillary got about 2./3rds of the votes. Bigotry may be a big problem. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2008, 2:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/west-virginia-does-it-matter/448555/154 "2008-05-20T02:20:40Z")
**gonzomax** , can you think of \*any \* other reasons that might explain that result? Or any reason why WV is so extraordinarily racist in a way not reflected in other states’ primary results? Such simple answers, despite **RTFirefly** ’s claims, are not usually adequate or even correct, not in real life. [QUOTE=Liberal] She’s bound to know that popular vote doesn’t count for a hill of beans — it’s delegates that matter. [/QUOTE] Wrong again - it’s _electoral votes_ that matter. :rolleyes: And obviously she \*does \* know that, so you of all people might want to be more careful about alleging her stupidity, hmm? **Gozu** , you haven’t shown which post of mine you were quoting, but never mind - we both know you made that one up. In case you want to falsify something else in the future, please remember that I do not refer to Clinton as “HRC”. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2008, 3:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/west-virginia-does-it-matter/448555/155 "2008-05-20T03:05:40Z")
[QUOTE=ElvisL1ves] Wrong again - it’s _electoral votes_ that matter. [/QUOTE] Since Hillary Clinton isn’t going to be nominated, they don’t mean anything to her. She’s lost. Time to accept it and move on. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2008, 3:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/west-virginia-does-it-matter/448555/156 "2008-05-20T03:57:58Z")
Funny thing. Teams that don’t make it into the play-offs have no chance of scoring any baskets in the championship series. And fans will argue that their team was better than some of the teams that did make it, that were better contenders to take it all. That they won more games against the teams that they would need to beat. But if you don’t win enough games you don’t advance. It’s just not fair but that’s how it is. ---
**Author:** ![Liberal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/848f3c/32.png) [@Liberal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Liberal)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2008, 11:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/west-virginia-does-it-matter/448555/157 "2008-05-20T11:39:15Z")
[QUOTE=ElvisL1ves] Wrong again - it’s _electoral votes_ that matter. :rolleyes: And obviously she \*does \* know that, so you of all people might want to be more careful about alleging her stupidity, hmm? [/QUOTE] Just so you know, the popular vote “victory” she’s been claiming is for the nomination, not the general election. When we’re ready to have the general election, we’ll let you know. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2008, 3:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/west-virginia-does-it-matter/448555/158 "2008-05-20T15:11:28Z")
[QUOTE=ElvisL1ves] **gonzomax** , can you think of \*any \* other reasons that might explain that result? Or any reason why WV is so extraordinarily racist in a way not reflected in other states’ primary results? Such simple answers, despite **RTFirefly** ’s claims, are not usually adequate or even correct, not in real life. Wrong again - it’s _electoral votes_ that matter. :rolleyes: And obviously she \*does \* know that, so you of all people might want to be more careful about alleging her stupidity, hmm? **Gozu** , you haven’t shown which post of mine you were quoting, but never mind - we both know you made that one up. In case you want to falsify something else in the future, please remember that I do not refer to Clinton as “HRC”. [/QUOTE] Not that degree. No. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2008, 3:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/west-virginia-does-it-matter/448555/159 "2008-05-20T15:12:00Z")
[QUOTE=ElvisL1ves] Or any reason why WV is so extraordinarily racist in a way not reflected in other states’ primary results? Such simple answers, despite **RTFirefly** ’s claims, are not usually adequate or even correct, not in real life. [/QUOTE] WTF?? It’s certainly news to me that I claimed that WV’s electorate was more racist than that of other states. Can you refresh my recollection? ---
**Author:** ![Liberal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/848f3c/32.png) [@Liberal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Liberal)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2008, 3:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/west-virginia-does-it-matter/448555/160 "2008-05-20T15:20:55Z")
[QUOTE=RTFirefly] WTF?? It’s certainly news to me that I claimed that WV’s electorate was more racist than that of other states. Can you refresh my recollection? [/QUOTE] Check your interstices and penumbras. It must have been in those. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/west-virginia-does-it-matter/448555.md?page=7) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/west-virginia-does-it-matter/448555.md?page=9)