Your Old Buddy, let me address the various holes in the loose collection of statements that Bark’s Dog Food calls an argument and I’ll be with you as soon as I have time. However, this post will also address some of your points so have a read.
It was covert whaling you corrected me on. This was in fact an adequate correction that at the time I let stand unchallenged, hence the lack of mention in my response. Probably not a wise idea, given who I’m arguing with. You have ignored at least 90% of my arguments, points, and cites – do you agree with them and have no objections? Or, as is increasingly likely, do you have little regard for a discussion, and instead prefer to put forward minor unsupported objections to small segments of a larger argument rather than handle the entire argument in any meaningful manner? You adopt a most irritating approach.
Since you insist, we can take a brief look at what Norway is doing.
There is a global moratorium on whaling in effect since 1986. And you know that Norway grudgingly accepted this moratorium until 1992 or 1993, when it resumed whaling, thereby breaking the agreement and biting its thumb at IWC efforts. BUT, Norway started off relatively modestly – until 2000, Norway claimed that it was acting in accordance with the IWC’s Revised Management Procedure, which proposes a scientifically sound method of setting safe catch limits for certain stocks. Norway abandoned the RMP in 2000, catching increasing numbers of whales, some of them from waters quite removed from Norway (MRP simulation applies to coastal/territorial waters, IIRC). Additionally, in 2001 the government removed the local ban (actually a CITES ban) on export of whale meat and blubber, thereby enabling a huge incentive for commercial whaling (the same year Norway attracted outrage by slaughtering grey wolves, a threatened species in Europe, based on claims that farmers’ commercial interests were being affected).
It’s been progressively downhill since the resumption of Norwegian whaling. Norway had always grumbled about the RMP and restrictions in general, and claimed that minke and some other whales were safe to catch in its waters. The IWC scientific committee responded to these concerns by suggesting the next stage, the Revised Management Scheme. Quoting from the link: “before the RMP is implemented and the moratorium on commercial whaling lifted, the IWC has agreed that an inspection and observation scheme must be in place to ensure that agreed catch limits are not exceeded. It is this combination of scientific and non-scientific factors that comprises the Revised Management Scheme.” (my emphasis).
In recent years, Norway abandoned the pretext of abiding to any sort of scientific consensus on whale stock management, preferring instead to listen to its own interests; from there ensued full commercial whaling without regard for what the rest of the world or the scientific community thought. You can see objections to some of Norway’s behaviour in the following press release by an animal welfare society:
I hardly think Norway’s approach can be described as honest. Perhaps “covert” was the wrong word, but not that far off from the truth. Like Iceland and Japan, Norway sought to focus on scientific elements of whaling in order to meet commercial interests on the side. Here is the assessment by Greenpeace:
Is there a market for whale meat in Norway? Even if there is, isn’t it likely that whale meat dealers would prefer to export to Japan anyway in order to collect rather more revenue than they could hope to generate domestically? I think it’s clear that Norway doesn’t much care for IWC or CITES regulations. Norway’s actions have not been very honest or forthcoming on this matter – indeed, you could say they pursued and are pursuing certain covert goals, which become more obvious when one removes the blinders of affiliation such as citizenship or regionality.
Ah yes, another Bark’s dog food objection: let’s engage in a bit of vague hand-waving and hope the problem goes away. Let’s magically infer the magical existence of unmentioned and undocumented objectors to a scientific study, but let’s not go as far as naming them or outlining their concerns in a debate, no. Instead let’s drop the name of only one scientist – who broadcast no objections to the methodology of the mtDNA study but rather said that the results were not what he expected – and let’s hope that readers are uncritical and foolish enough to swallow such a nonexistent argument.
You are obviously afflicted by chronic cite deficiency, something I heartily bemoan. It’s not, however, an excuse for piss-poor debate, so please drop the approach you have favoured so far. Stop indulging in this abysmally stupid exercise that consists of you airing unsupported and frankly undeveloped opinion, stop taking tiny little bites out of a much larger discussion and try provide some props for your argument—should one ever materialize—to rest on.
Ah yes, thank you for displaying such a fine understanding of science. Can you even name these incriminating assumptions that you mention with yet another casual wave of the hand? First, all science is to some degree statistical processing (are you attacking the coalescent?); second, the scientific method permits assumptions as long as they are stated, understood, and handled as part of the scientific process (the goal, of course, is always to minimize assumptions or unknowns, but their presence is not automatically damning). So the picture is rather different from the one your feeble claim seeks to paint. Allow me to show you the abstract of the study published in Science Magazine, where you may obtain a better idea of what it actually is about:
I have added emphasis to the above to highlight some important points that, it seems to me, are being deliberately ignored by the pro-whaling camp here. Now let me hammer home what I have already said at the very least two or three times, but which you clearly haven’t yet managed to grasp: mitochondrial DNA analysis employs more precise and qualitatively “better” data (less prone to error) to base a study on than the particular unscientific observations and records that previous historical whale population assessments are based on. I have already outlined the deficiencies of classical methods of estimating historical whale populations, in fact I have also linked and cited Roman and Palumbi’s comments on this subject; again, I invite you to re-read my posts and try harder this time.
Here is the first reading list I found of studies and papers on coalescence and population genetics, it’s not as if use of coalescent theory is an new maverick and unreliable method – it’s one of the staples of population biology, evolutionary biology, etc.!
I did not make such a claim. Re-read my posts.
Since Your Old Buddy made the same error, of assuming that I claimed the mtDNA study was some sort of ultimate argument as far as whaling the minke go, I will consider the possibility that you misunderstood or that I stated myself unclearly. However I suspect you simply took YOB’s objection and recycled it the same way you recycled the cite I provided earlier. Minimum effort for maximum annoyance.
You will note in one of my very first messages in this thread the following words: **“If Minke whales really have recovered to above 54% of historical stocks – a fact that is not yet obvious – then I suppose that the decision to hunt them may be discussed by the IWC.” **
According to the study by Roman and Palumbi, the historical stock of minke was 265,000, with the present IWC point estimate standing at 149,000. That gives us a minke population today of roughly 56% of historical figures, which, lo and behold, may be enough to meet the 54% criterion for hunting. Which means the matter may be seriously discussed at the IWC, and real statisticians and scientists consulted before approval to hunt is or is not given. However, since I am not a marine biologist and since it is becoming laughably unlikely that you are, I would rather wait to hear the IWC proclaim that X numbers of minke may be caught in year Y rather than have Iceland go renegade and kill minke without the necessary permission. The Roman-Palumbi study is no go ahead for commercial whaling, and even a figure of 56% would have to be looked at closely (and checked) before a minke catch quota of over zero could ever be considered. The genetic variance study, leaving aside the results it obtained, is extremely important because it highlights the gross uncertainty that persists around whale stocks, and of course because it helps to bring into prominence an improved method of population analysis seldom used previously for our cetacean friends.
Bold words, for someone who has thus far failed to demonstrate even basic reading ability, never mind a single argument. Here is the commentary by the sceptical scientist quoted by the BBC that you have latched on to so tenaciously: "If the genetics is right, then either our estimates of past catches are very wrong or there’s been some major ecological shift in the oceans.” I invite you to either make use of those words in a concrete and substantial manner without your customary hand-waving, or to find other words that are more pertinent to the argument at hand. Let me point out, again, that the sceptic’s words state his concern with the results obtained by the study, not with the methods or the data employed. Not liking the results is hardly invalidating scientific criticism. If the methods aren’t addressed, the criticism isn’t even sceptical, it’s just an observation that the study’s results do not match closely with those of other studies – a different matter entirely.
The whole point of the discussion involving the mtDNA study was the uncertainty that exists regarding whale populations. That is the very same type of concern that prompted the IWC to vote in favour of a suspension of whaling in 1982, and that’s the same concern that partly accounts for the ban’s existence today. So why don’t you sit tight and let the scientists at the IWC do their work and reach their conclusions?
Aboriginal subsistence whaling makes a difference too. That’s why it too is regulated as much as possible: IWC on Aboriginal Subsistence Whaling. You can imagine what a disaster it is when someone kills even just a few of something as endangered as the blue whale – of which there could be as few as 400 specimens left.
Is this any kind of argument? Besides, right now no whale may be hunted for commercial purposes, it’s that simple.
If we cut through the majority of your painfully indirect writing, what you are really asking above is “how come certain types of relatively abundant whales may not be hunted?” I must have repeated the answer to that question at least a half dozen times so far: for the previously stated reasons that the ban on commercial whaling was instituted to begin with, and for the simple fact that the IWC says so; secondly, opening the door to commercial hunting of, say, minke, could easily lead to a massive escalation in commercial whaling without stricter controls and measures in place to prevent the kind of dishonesty we have seen in the past and continue to see today. Encouraging a market for whale products (anywhere) can be just as bad for whales as hunting them, since an existing and sizeable market means that someone is going to find a way to hunt whales regardless of the ban. Norway and Japan did so flagrantly, and now Iceland looks like it’s heading the same way, since there seems to be, strictly speaking, no reason to engage in lethal scientific research when other options are available. Rather disappointing given Iceland’s excellent record in environmental and conservation matters.
Nothing of the sort. My claim, which actually consisted of a couple of cites based on claims put forward by tourism experts, indicated that whale-watching can match and exceed the revenues of certain types of whale-hunting, not that hunters should turn watchers or anything like that. If you had read the articles I linked on that topic you would have seen the specific commentary that the whaling boats and whale-watching boats are in direct competition, two completely different industries. I never implied that one ought to turn into the other, however there are certainly worse suggestions – in some African wildlife reserves, former poachers have been persuaded to stop killing and start assisting park guards, so anything can happen.
Alien: I’m happy to see a post by someone who is simultaneously able to enjoy the taste of whale meat and acknowledge the seriousness of the issues that surround whaling. Thank you.