# What all things were working in the democrats favor and against the GOP in Alabama in that election
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-all-things-were-working-in-the-democrats-favor-and-against-the-gop-in-alabama-in-that-election/804461
**Category:** Politics & Elections
**Created:** [December 14, 2017, 1:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-all-things-were-working-in-the-democrats-favor-and-against-the-gop-in-alabama-in-that-election/804461 "2017-12-14T01:46:01Z")
**Posts on this page:** 17
**Page:** 1
### Author:  [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)
#### Post date: [December 14, 2017, 1:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-all-things-were-working-in-the-democrats-favor-and-against-the-gop-in-alabama-in-that-election/804461/1 "2017-12-14T01:46:01Z")
That was a pretty big upset, and most people didn’t see it coming. Alabama is a deep red state.
But there were a lot of tail winds for Jones, and a lot of head winds for Moore. Has anyone made up a list of all of them?
For example:
The black vote was higher than average (I think 29% of the turnout, despite blacks only being 26% of Alabama citizens)
The black vote was more heavily democrat than average. Normally it is 90% democrat, it was 96% in the special election
Trump is a deeply unpopular president
The party that controls the white house tends to lose seats in congress
Because there is one party rule (presidency, house & senate all under one party), there is a stronger urge for divided power (congress one party, presidency another)
Roy Moore is a rapist and child molester (which drove away some decent voters for him, and energized decent voters on the other side)
Roy Moore is an authoritarian theocrat who violates the constitution (which drove away some decent voters for him, and energized decent voters on the other side)
This was a special election (which means that it was a question of turnout and energy, since turnout and energy is low in special elections)
Anything else? I’m glad Jones won, but I’m not expecting re-election in 2020.
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### Author:  [@Ethilrist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ethilrist)
#### Post date: [December 14, 2017, 1:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-all-things-were-working-in-the-democrats-favor-and-against-the-gop-in-alabama-in-that-election/804461/2 "2017-12-14T01:50:41Z")
From an article on exit polls on CNN…
1. Moore only won among voters aged 65 and older
2. Moore didn’t get the mom vote
3. Not moderates, either
4. People are apparently not a big fan of Trump these days, so being solidly endorsed by Trump might have counted against Moore
5. Kind of a draw on values
6. People just seem to prefer Democrats now, for some reason
7. Except in tiny towns and farms. Big cities, though, Democrats.
8. See also black people. They preferred Jones.
> **[8 numbers out of Alabama that should terrify Republicans | CNN Politics](https://www.cnn.com/2017/12/13/politics/alabama-exit-poll-analysis/index.html)**
>
> The Alabama Senate race is over. Doug Jones -- improbably -- is coming to Washington as the next senator from the state. Roy Moore isn't.
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### Author:  [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)
#### Post date: [December 14, 2017, 2:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-all-things-were-working-in-the-democrats-favor-and-against-the-gop-in-alabama-in-that-election/804461/3 "2017-12-14T02:23:24Z")
If you look at the history, it’s not so much of a mystery. Republicans typically win by big margins in AL, but Moore won his last election with only about 51% of the vote. It didn’t take much of a swing from that to flip it over to the Democrats, and Moore had some doozies. Plus, the other R Senator gave folks a reason to to vote for him.
And no one has accused Moore of rape, btw. Not sure why people keep posting here that he has been.
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### Author:  [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)
#### Post date: [December 14, 2017, 2:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-all-things-were-working-in-the-democrats-favor-and-against-the-gop-in-alabama-in-that-election/804461/4 "2017-12-14T02:38:48Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#):
>
> And no one has accused Moore of rape, btw. Not sure why people keep posting here that he has been.
[ ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LRiVGMQQ-XI)
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### Author:  [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)
#### Post date: [December 14, 2017, 5:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-all-things-were-working-in-the-democrats-favor-and-against-the-gop-in-alabama-in-that-election/804461/5 "2017-12-14T05:23:46Z")
538 nails the OP: [Republicans Shouldn’t Assume Roy Moore Was An Outlier | FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republicans-shouldnt-assume-roy-moore-was-an-outlier/)
For a normal Senate election, the Republican would win by 28 or 29 points. But these aren’t normal times:
[ul]
[li]Subtract 10 points because of the national political environment.[/li][li]Subtract 10 points because of Moore’s problems _other_ than his alleged assault of girls.[/li][li]Lose 10 points due to swings and changes in voter turnout because of the Moore scandal.[/li][/ul] Jones needed all 3. He got them, courtesy of Steve Bannon and Moore’s other enablers.
What about abortion? Didn’t matter, or rather it mattered for about 1% of the Alabama electorate: most of the anti-choice folk were committed against Democrats. I’m not convinced that this result can be generalized to other electorates though. [The Role of Abortion in the Alabama Senate Race May Not Be What You Think | by John Hagner | Medium](https://medium.com/@johnhagner/the-role-of-abortion-in-the-alabama-senate-race-may-not-be-what-you-think-cedda2568766)
FTR: Link to article about Moore’s accuser, who alleged that he sexually assaulted her when she was 16. As it happens, she had voted for Trump. She said she feared that she would be raped by him when he attempted to pull off her shirt. [Woman Says Roy Moore Sexually Assaulted Her When She Was 16](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/woman-says-roy-moore-sexually-assaulted-her-when-she-was-n820446)
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### Author:  [@naita](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/naita)
#### Post date: [December 14, 2017, 1:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-all-things-were-working-in-the-democrats-favor-and-against-the-gop-in-alabama-in-that-election/804461/6 "2017-12-14T13:14:18Z")
Moore is a blatant racist and misogynist.
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### Author:  [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)
#### Post date: [December 14, 2017, 2:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-all-things-were-working-in-the-democrats-favor-and-against-the-gop-in-alabama-in-that-election/804461/7 "2017-12-14T14:11:12Z")
> [@naita](#):
>
> Moore is a blatant racist and misogynist.
With no respect for the constitution or the rule of law. And he looks funny in a cowboy hat.
I’m actually quite offended he got 48% of the vote, even in Alabama.
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### Author:  [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)
#### Post date: [December 14, 2017, 2:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-all-things-were-working-in-the-democrats-favor-and-against-the-gop-in-alabama-in-that-election/804461/8 "2017-12-14T14:12:19Z")
The difference is entirely based on the exposure of Moore as a sexual predator.
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### Author:  [@The\_Tooth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Tooth)
#### Post date: [December 14, 2017, 2:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-all-things-were-working-in-the-democrats-favor-and-against-the-gop-in-alabama-in-that-election/804461/9 "2017-12-14T14:24:28Z")
> [@naita](#):
>
> Moore is a blatant racist and misogynist.
And a theocrat and a homophobe and a religious bigot too. The man has no redeeming qualities of any sort. He probably likes his steak well done and listens to both kinds of music too.
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### Author:  [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)
#### Post date: [December 14, 2017, 3:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-all-things-were-working-in-the-democrats-favor-and-against-the-gop-in-alabama-in-that-election/804461/10 "2017-12-14T15:10:02Z")
Yes, Moore had significant issues as a candidate. God knows that’s true.
But one of the reasons is the tailwinds that R candidates are currently facing. With a deeply unpopular Trump - and the fact that off-year elections tend to go against the President’s part - it would be expected that any D candidate who doesn’t step on his own dick would outperform the baseline.
In addition, the R party is unpopular. They’ve accomplished little and what they have is controversial. The generic Congressional survey stand near D+10. So add another 10 points to most D candidates during these elections. That should be enough - should it stand up - to flip the house next year.
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### Author:  [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)
#### Post date: [December 14, 2017, 3:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-all-things-were-working-in-the-democrats-favor-and-against-the-gop-in-alabama-in-that-election/804461/11 "2017-12-14T15:50:32Z")
> [@Jonathan\_Chance](#):
>
> But one of the reasons is the tailwinds that R candidates are currently facing.
Headwinds. Tailwinds push one forward; headwinds retard progress.
/pedant
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### Author:  [@Ulfreida](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ulfreida)
#### Post date: [December 14, 2017, 3:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-all-things-were-working-in-the-democrats-favor-and-against-the-gop-in-alabama-in-that-election/804461/12 "2017-12-14T15:57:33Z")
> [@naita](#):
>
> Moore is a blatant racist and misogynist.
In Alabama those have been assets, in the past, and probably still are, for a big chunk of the population.
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### Author:  [@theR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/theR)
#### Post date: [December 14, 2017, 9:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-all-things-were-working-in-the-democrats-favor-and-against-the-gop-in-alabama-in-that-election/804461/13 "2017-12-14T21:16:27Z")
> [@TriPolar](#):
>
> The difference is entirely based on the exposure of Moore as a sexual predator.
No, it isn’t. The Democratic Party put much more money into the race, over $1 million, than they typically would have in the past. Many other PACs also spent in support of Jones. In fact, this is probably rightly seen as something they should do more of in the future because they have rarely contested elections like this that are seen as Republican wins.
The NAACP made over 40,000 calls and texted nearly 160,000 people urging them to vote, and turnout of black voters was huge. There were also numerous efforts to offer rides to the polls.
The sexual predation probably helped them make the argument, but the win wouldn’t have happened without the hard work to promote turnout. (Really, one small difference out of anyone’s control, like bad weather, could have flipped the result.)
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### Author:  [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)
#### Post date: [December 14, 2017, 9:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-all-things-were-working-in-the-democrats-favor-and-against-the-gop-in-alabama-in-that-election/804461/14 "2017-12-14T21:20:42Z")
> [@theR](#):
>
> No, it isn’t. The Democratic Party put much more money into the race, over $1 million, than they typically would have in the past. Many other PACs also spent in support of Jones. In fact, this is probably rightly seen as something they should do more of in the future because they have rarely contested elections like this that are seen as Republican wins.
>
> The NAACP made over 40,000 calls and texted nearly 160,000 people urging them to vote, and turnout of black voters was huge. There were also numerous efforts to offer rides to the polls.
>
> The sexual predation probably helped them make the argument, but the win wouldn’t have happened without the hard work to promote turnout. (Really, one small difference out of anyone’s control, like bad weather, could have flipped the result.)
The win wouldn’t have happened if Jones didn’t run in the first place. He won by a slim margin and it’s going to be hard to convince me that Moore wouldn’t be the Senator Elect today if not for the charges involving young women.
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### Author:  [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)
#### Post date: [December 14, 2017, 10:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-all-things-were-working-in-the-democrats-favor-and-against-the-gop-in-alabama-in-that-election/804461/15 "2017-12-14T22:38:41Z")
> [@TriPolar](#):
>
> The win wouldn’t have happened if Jones didn’t run in the first place. He won by a slim margin and it’s going to be hard to convince me that Moore wouldn’t be the Senator Elect today if not for the charges involving young women.
Yes but see post 5. The scandal was not sufficient on its own.
The GOP lost 10 points due to the political climate: Trump is an unpopular President and the Republican congress is pushing a tax cut plan unpopular with experts and the public.
Moore was a weak candidate: polls showed him leading by only 5-10 points _before_ the scandal broke. In a normal election it would have been 28-29.
The remaining 10 points are explained by the scandal, a strong Democratic candidate, adequate funding of the race and a terrific get out the vote effort.
Remove any of the 3 planks above and the GOP candidate would have won. Remove any aspect of the last plank and Moore would have won.
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### Author:  [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)
#### Post date: [December 14, 2017, 10:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-all-things-were-working-in-the-democrats-favor-and-against-the-gop-in-alabama-in-that-election/804461/16 "2017-12-14T22:57:34Z")
> [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#):
>
> Yes but see post 5. The scandal was not sufficient on its own.
Ok. I’m using the chronological view, the assault charges came at the end, everything else altogether wouldn’t have given Jones a win up to that point. And the effectiveness of all the measures taken against Moore were enhanced by this becoming a much bigger national story. Everyone deserves credit for their part in helping Jones but this scandal was the game-changer.
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### Author:  [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)
#### Post date: [December 14, 2017, 11:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-all-things-were-working-in-the-democrats-favor-and-against-the-gop-in-alabama-in-that-election/804461/17 "2017-12-14T23:44:52Z")
Two other things:
An exceptionally large turnout for a special election. Large turnouts normally favor Democrats.
Also, 22,000 voters took the time and trouble to write in a candidate’s name. It’s a pretty safe bet they weren’t writing in someone as a protest against Doug Jones.