# What are McCain's chances **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [November 1, 2008, 12:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-mccains-chances/470564 "2008-11-01T12:26:25Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2008, 4:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-mccains-chances/470564/21 "2008-11-01T16:29:43Z")
McCain has one serious advantage, and he ought to be ashamed of it. A large proportion of Obama voters live in disadvantaged districts, polling wise. They’re going to have to put in some serious time in line in order to vote, a problem their more advantaged fellow citizens do not have to face. Our voting “system” favors the comfortable, and that favors McCain. That, and the much vaunted “youth vote” could flake out again, as it has before. Arrayed against this are intangibles such as enthusiasm, which is Obama’s strong suit but impossible to measure. My gut is that this enthusiasm is huge, and we’re looking at a full-scale massacree, a prospect I face with calm aplomb. ---
**Author:** ![Rolken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/df788c/32.png) [@Rolken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rolken)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2008, 5:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-mccains-chances/470564/22 "2008-11-01T17:08:30Z")
If anything I think the 538 numbers overestimate McCain’s chances. To the best of my knowledge, his numbers are not taking into account the demographics of early voting where they are known, and while they may not be an accurate predictor of how people will vote on Nov 4, the inflated black turnout in particular certainly seems to indicate that McCain will at least need to perform better on Nov 4 than polls alone would indicate in order to win states like Georgia, because there’s already an imbalance in Obama’s favor locked into the voting. > [@Clothahump](#): > > Obama’s entire campaign is based on the stupidity of the American voting populace. He’s betting the farm that Americans will ignore the fact that he’s an empty suit who espouses Marxism, and simply be captivated by the “ooohhh…shiny” factor. If you applied the same critical examination to your own side, you’d find that rhetoric that doesn’t quite match reality is a common refrain. Exhibit A from McCain is his insistence that he’ll eliminate the federal deficit by eliminating earmarks while cutting taxes, which is [simply](http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/node/9908) [not](http://blog.washingtonpost.com/fact-checker/2008/05/mccains_fantasy_war_on_earmark.html) [credible](http://blogs.wsj.com/numbersguy/putting-earmarks-in-context-443/). The fact is that most people don’t have the time or will to do a lot of deep thinking about the presidential campaign, and so the way each side presents itself is a huge part of how voters make their decisions. To be selectively offended that the other side caters to that reality is intellectually dishonest. ---
**Author:** ![Jolly\_Roger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/91b2a8/32.png) [@Jolly\_Roger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jolly_Roger)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2008, 5:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-mccains-chances/470564/23 "2008-11-01T17:16:19Z")
> [@Rolken](#): > > If anything I think the 538 numbers overestimate McCain’s chances. To the best of my knowledge, his numbers are not taking into account the demographics of early voting where they are known, and while they may not be an accurate predictor of how people will vote on Nov 4, the inflated black turnout in particular certainly seems to indicate that McCain will at least need to perform better on Nov 4 than polls alone would indicate in order to win states like Georgia, because there’s already an imbalance in Obama’s favor locked into the voting. > > If you applied the same critical examination to your own side, you’d find that rhetoric that doesn’t quite match reality is a common refrain. Exhibit A from McCain is his insistence that he’ll eliminate the federal deficit by eliminating earmarks while cutting taxes, which is [simply](http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/node/9908) [not](http://blog.washingtonpost.com/fact-checker/2008/05/mccains_fantasy_war_on_earmark.html) [credible](http://blogs.wsj.com/numbersguy/putting-earmarks-in-context-443/). The fact is that most people don’t have the time or will to do a lot of deep thinking about the presidential campaign, and so the way each side presents itself is a huge part of how voters make their decisions. To be selectively offended that the other side caters to that reality is intellectually dishonest. I don’t worry too much about the die hard right wingers here. Since they’ll follow the goosestep of the party line no matter how silly it is, why would I want to bother? Dishonesty is the currency they use. They sold Iraq to us on it. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2008, 5:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-mccains-chances/470564/24 "2008-11-01T17:17:57Z")
Shit, I completely forgot about all the Marxism! I can’t even count the number of times Obama has referenced “the dictatorship of the proletariat” on the stump! Good catch, **Clothahump!** ---
**Author:** ![Icerigger](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/icerigger/32/432_2.png) [@Icerigger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Icerigger)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2008, 7:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-mccains-chances/470564/25 "2008-11-01T19:57:46Z")
Drudge is now screaming McCain is in the lead. I don’t want it to be true but I have a terrible feeling “fruit fly” Palin is going to be the next VP. I just have this vision of Limbaugh and Hannity, “see I told you so all the elite and moderates were wrong, the real Americans prevailed”. People supporting Obama have been too confident, I hope I’m wrong but I think when it comes down to the wire the majority are not going to vote form a liberal black man for president. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2008, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-mccains-chances/470564/26 "2008-11-01T20:23:52Z")
As mentioned in a different thread, Drudge is most likely pulling that lead out of his ass. [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html) ---
**Author:** ![sidle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ee59a6/32.png) [@sidle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sidle)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2008, 8:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-mccains-chances/470564/27 "2008-11-01T20:28:27Z")
_Right now it is 4th down with 20 to go. McCain is down by two on his own 40 yard line with 3 seconds to go and has no time outs. He needs to get 30 yards to get his kicker in range, he needs the Obama team to commit a foul to stop the clock, and then he needs a really good kick from his kicker who evidently just broke her leg in a wardrobe malfunction. In short barring a miracle that will be discussed for decades to come… it aint happening._ Thank you, Bartman. Shouldn’t be rocket science, but I’m having an awfully hard time here wrapping my head around his chances. This analogy helped me a lot. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2008, 8:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-mccains-chances/470564/28 "2008-11-01T20:32:45Z")
> [@Clothahump](#): > > Obama’s entire campaign is based on the stupidity of the American voting populace. He’s betting the farm that Americans will ignore the fact that he’s an empty suit who espouses Marxism . . . :rolleyes: He doesn’t. If anything, he is too much of an economic libertarian; see [here.](http://www.thenation.com/doc/20080630/klein) Even Bill Kristol, on _The Daily Show_ Thursday, admitted he expects Obama to be an ordinary centrist-liberal president. ---
**Author:** ![TWDuke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/e495f1/32.png) [@TWDuke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TWDuke)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2008, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-mccains-chances/470564/29 "2008-11-01T20:40:21Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Shit, I completely forgot about all the Marxism! I can’t even count the number of times Obama has referenced “the dictatorship of the proletariat” on the stump! Good catch, **Clothahump!** Don’t forget the “empty suit” business. If all we had to base our opinions on were the speeches, the interviews, the debates, and the interactions with ordinary citizens, we might think that Obama is the candidate with greater intelligence and deeper understanding of the issues. Thank goodness we have **Clothahump** ’s parrotlike repetition of talking points to keep us straight. ---
**Author:** ![Polerius](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/d78d45/32.png) [@Polerius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Polerius)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2008, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-mccains-chances/470564/30 "2008-11-01T20:54:41Z")
> [@Clothahump](#): > > Obama’s entire campaign is based on the stupidity of the American voting populace. It’s funny that Republicans whine (and whine and whine) that liberals are “elitists” for making such statements, and when the election isn’t going their way, they suddenly “discover” that the American voting populace is stupid. The fact is that Republicans are just as “elitist” and “snobbish” towards their political opponents and the American voting populace in general, but a) they haven’t had the chance/desire to express their disdain for the average voter in recent years, because they were winning elections b) the “elitist” label has successfully stuck onto liberals, because, in fact the average voter is indeed too stupid to see that both sides are equal offenders. ---
**Author:** ![Polerius](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/d78d45/32.png) [@Polerius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Polerius)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2008, 9:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-mccains-chances/470564/31 "2008-11-01T21:25:39Z")
> [@Jolly\_Roger](#): > > Sure, that isn’t an exact science, and theres a chance he could win, but from where I’m standing it looks like he has maybe a 25% chance. By [my calculations](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=483071), based on state poll results from [electoral-vote.com](http://electoral-vote.com), Obama has, at least a 97% chance of winning. FYI, below are my calculations for all previous dates, going back to the beginning of September. I use a simpler method than the one on [fivethiryeight.com](http://fivethiryeight.com), but I have found over the past several weeks that our estimates are close to each other. You can see that things looked pretty bad for Obama after the Republican National Convention and the selection of Sarah Palin (with the worst date being around mid-September), and then started picking up again in late September (after the Katie Couric interviews) ```auto Probability of an Obama win: Date | Conservative | Moderate | Aggressive | Estimate | Estimate | Estimate ---------------------------------------------------- Nov01 | 97.1% | 99.2% | 100.0% Oct30 | 97.1% | 99.2% | 100.0% Oct28 | 98.1% | 99.3% | 100.0% Oct26 | 96.8% | 99.2% | 100.0% Oct24 | 97.0% | 99.2% | 100.0% Oct22 | 95.1% | 98.8% | 99.9% Oct20 | 93.7% | 99.1% | 100.0% Oct18 | 92.6% | 98.3% | 99.8% Oct16 | 82.9% | 96.9% | 99.8% Oct14 | 77.6% | 94.9% | 99.7% Oct12 | 74.6% | 92.6% | 99.6% Oct10 | 74.1% | 91.9% | 99.4% Oct08 | 78.0% | 91.7% | 98.4% Oct06 | 71.1% | 85.5% | 95.9% Oct04 | 69.9% | 83.0% | 92.2% Oct02 | 67.6% | 82.1% | 93.0% Sep30 | 50.5% | 63.2% | 84.2% Sep28 | 49.1% | 63.6% | 82.1% Sep26 | 49.9% | 66.9% | 84.9% Sep24 | 41.2% | 57.1% | 73.1% Sep22 | 35.0% | 50.7% | 65.5% Sep20 | 33.3% | 47.1% | 64.2% Sep18 | 29.4% | 37.2% | 43.6% Sep16 | 32.7% | 36.9% | 30.4% Sep14 | 33.9% | 40.7% | 45.3% Sep12 | 36.9% | 46.6% | 55.5% Sep10 | 43.2% | 54.6% | 65.0% Sep08 | 50.2% | 65.5% | 84.9% Sep06 | 50.2% | 65.5% | 84.9% Sep04 | 51.1% | 66.3% | 84.7% Sep02 | 48.3% | 61.0% | 79.1% ``` ---
**Author:** ![vison](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/e47774/32.png) [@vison](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/vison)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2008, 9:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-mccains-chances/470564/32 "2008-11-01T21:33:05Z")
It’s really hard to live my daily life with my fingers crossed. Thank heaven it’s only a couple more days!!! ---
**Author:** ![Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/bc8723/32.png) [@Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fish)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2008, 9:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-mccains-chances/470564/33 "2008-11-01T21:37:01Z")
I can’t imagine what it must be like for non-Americans. I almost can’t bear the tension of waiting to find out, but at least I got a vote! ---
**Author:** ![Knorf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/58956e/32.png) [@Knorf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knorf)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2008, 10:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-mccains-chances/470564/34 "2008-11-01T22:56:11Z")
> [@wmfellows](#): > > And Marxism? Good lord, you don’t have any idea about Marxism if you find this guy Marxist (well perhaps a colouring book for five year old analysts version of Marxism). Not even that. Really, calling Obama a Marxist is staggeringly feeble. I’m trying to restrain my language since this isn’t the Pit, but … Really. Clothahump, get a grip. If you have a real argument, let’s hear it. Others mentioned a great point: how can anyone who has organized such a fantastic campaign and faced such relentless criticism in the press with equanimity be an “empty suit.” ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2008, 11:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-mccains-chances/470564/35 "2008-11-01T23:05:06Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > :rolleyes: He doesn’t. If anything, he is too much of an economic libertarian; Oh, come on. There is not a shred on evidence in that entire article that Obama is an “economic libertarian.” And that’s coming from a columnist who makes you look like Ayn Rand. ---
**Author:** ![Merkwurdigliebe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/74df32/32.png) [@Merkwurdigliebe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merkwurdigliebe)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2008, 11:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-mccains-chances/470564/36 "2008-11-01T23:13:05Z")
> [@Clothahump](#): > > Obama’s entire campaign is based on the stupidity of the American voting populace. He’s betting the farm that Americans will ignore the fact that he’s an empty suit who espouses Marxism, and simply be captivated by the “ooohhh…shiny” factor. Do you know what Marxim means? ---
**Author:** ![vison](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/e47774/32.png) [@vison](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/vison)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2008, 1:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-mccains-chances/470564/37 "2008-11-02T01:30:34Z")
> [@Merkwurdigliebe](#): > > Do you know what Marxim means? I would guess he doesn’t. Just a guess, but I suspect I’m right. I think some people think thusly: it’s not Marxism when the government gives Rich Capitalists almost a trillion dollars but it’s Marxism when a presidential candidate talks about making things better for, you know, poor people. But then, a discouraging thought pops into my poor old grey head: Obama voted for the bailout, too. So now, with my head going wugga wugga, I withdraw. (But I’m still an Obama fangirl.) ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2008, 1:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-mccains-chances/470564/38 "2008-11-02T01:44:41Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > Oh, come on. There is not a shred on evidence in that entire article that Obama is an “economic libertarian.” And that’s coming from a columnist who makes you look like Ayn Rand. His leading economic advisors as [Chicago-School,](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicago_school_(economics)) Friedrich von Hayek’s and Milton Friedman’s school of thought in economics. That’s what the article is **about.** ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2008, 1:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-mccains-chances/470564/39 "2008-11-02T01:45:59Z")
> [@Merkwurdigliebe](#): > > Do you know what Marxim means? It’s a Communist men’s magazine. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2008, 1:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-mccains-chances/470564/40 "2008-11-02T01:47:26Z")
> [@Knorf](#): > > Really, calling Obama a Marxist is staggeringly feeble. It’s a meme propagating virally throughout cyberspace nevertheless. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-mccains-chances/470564.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-mccains-chances/470564.md?page=3)