# What are some "next thing you know" cases that never happened **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [March 19, 2006, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-some-next-thing-you-know-cases-that-never-happened/349024 "2006-03-19T19:12:17Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2006, 11:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-some-next-thing-you-know-cases-that-never-happened/349024/21 "2006-03-20T23:53:31Z")
> [@jjimm](#): > > Aren’t there any leftist mispredictions? Yes, but usually more in the nature of disappointed hopes than unrealized fears. E.g., in the late '60s and early '70s many American leftists were expecting “the Revolution,” or believed it had already started. There were many real sociocultural revolutions in that period – the civil rights revolution, the sexual revolution, the feminist revolution – but, in hindsight, political/economic revolution was never at any point a serious possibility. Allowing for incremental, evolutionary changes on a generational time-scale, distribution of wealth and power in America is pretty much the same now as it was then. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Amazing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6de8d8/32.png) [@Captain\_Amazing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Amazing)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2006, 12:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-some-next-thing-you-know-cases-that-never-happened/349024/22 "2006-03-21T00:10:11Z")
> [@jjimm](#): > > Aren’t there any leftist mispredictions? I recall a lot of feverish “police state” ranting in the 1980s UK, but they were largely about the status quo rather than the future. Well, there were a few after 9/11…some people claimed that the government would round up all Arabs and put them in camps. Others claimed that Bush would find some way to cancel the elections and rule by decree. ---
**Author:** ![Llama\_Llogophile](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/49beb7/32.png) [@Llama\_Llogophile](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Llama_Llogophile)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2006, 1:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-some-next-thing-you-know-cases-that-never-happened/349024/23 "2006-03-21T01:16:56Z")
When NYC was talking about banning smoking in most public buildings the restaurant and bar owners were shouting about how it would put them out of business. Of course, nothing happened. Actually, that’s not true. I seem to recall a study that showed a slight INCREASE in business in these establishments after the ban took effect. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2006, 1:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-some-next-thing-you-know-cases-that-never-happened/349024/24 "2006-03-21T01:33:36Z")
> [@Mach Tuck](#): > > When NYC was talking about banning smoking in most public buildings the restaurant and bar owners were shouting about how it would put them out of business. When there was a proposal on the Florida ballot in 2004 to raise the minimum wage to $6.40 an hour, those campaigning against it predicted it would drive a lot of businesses out of business, and/or increase unemployment. Neither has happened, AFAIK. But the new wage has been in effect only since 1/1/06. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2006, 1:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-some-next-thing-you-know-cases-that-never-happened/349024/25 "2006-03-21T01:35:42Z")
> [@Captain Amazing](#): > > Well, there were a few after 9/11…some people claimed that the government would round up all Arabs and put them in camps. Others claimed that Bush would find some way to cancel the elections and rule by decree. Neither of those has happened **exactly** but . . . ---
**Author:** ![Blake](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/a9a28c/32.png) [@Blake](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blake)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2006, 1:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-some-next-thing-you-know-cases-that-never-happened/349024/26 "2006-03-21T01:45:10Z")
> [@jjimm](#): > > Aren’t there any leftist mispredictions? Oh yeah. Plenty. Perhaps the ultimate failed leftist predictions were those of Marx. Capitalism was doomed to failure. Everybody was destined to become an employee. Standards of living for the worker would decline. Socialist revolution would inevitably engulf the world etc. We could also look at prediction of leftist environmentalist/social commentators like [Paul Ehrlich](http://www.sepp.org/controv/ehrlich.html) > [@](#): > > His Population Bomb began, “The battle to feed all of humanity is over … hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death.” In 1969, Ehrlich added, “By 1985 enough millions will have died to reduce the earth’s population to some acceptable level, like 1.5 billion people.” The same year, he predicted in an article entitled “Eco-Catastrophe!” that by 1980 the United States would see its life expectancy drop to 42 because of pesticides, and by 1999 its population would drop to 22.6 million. In the mid-seventies, with the release of his The End of Affluence, Ehrlich incorporated drama into his dire prophesies. He envisioned the President dissolving Congress “during the food riots of the 1980s,” followed by the United States suffering a nuclear attack for its mass use of insecticides. That’s right, Ehrlich thought that the United States would get nuked in retaliation for killing bugs. It’s a gross generalisation, but it seems that when leftist mispredictions fail to come true the soothsayers tend to claim the credit for the failure. That is, they claim that because people heard their warnings they took steps to avoid them. This is certainly the case with Ehrlich, who claimed a large part of the credit for the reduction in population growth. Similarly the failure of almost all of Rachel Carson’s prediction’s are claimed as proof of the great value of her work. And Marxists invariably claim that it was because capitalists saw the truth of his work that they fought so hard to make sure his predictions didn’t come true. I guess that’s probably because it’s harder to justify a failed conservative prediction because the things predicted tend to be situations that everybody in power was already actively involved with. As such when the prediction of Communist domination of Asia fails it obviously failed despite all efforts of the USA to avoid it and all efforts of China to promote it. In contrast a prediction of environmental catastrophe through population growth or collapse of capitalism are things that few people were working to overcome before the prediction was made, so when the prediction fails the soothsayer can claim credit for the failure through implementing changes and if it comes true she can claim credit for the predictions. It’s a kind of reverse self-fulfilling prophecy: a self-defeating prophecy I guess. It’s impossible to lose with those sorts of ‘predictions’ unless they are made as sealed envelope predictions, which they never are. ---
**Author:** ![Jackmannii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackmannii/32/311_2.png) [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2006, 1:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-some-next-thing-you-know-cases-that-never-happened/349024/27 "2006-03-21T01:51:43Z")
“If we pass legislation legalizing the licensed carrying of concealed weapons in (your state here), next thing you know there’ll be vigilante and road rage shootings all over the place!” Of course, there’s the less hysterical (but hardly more accurate) corollary: “Pass the concealed carry law and hoodlums will be afraid to hold up honest citizens; the crime rate will plummet.” ---
**Author:** ![Walter\_Windchill](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/eb8c5e/32.png) [@Walter\_Windchill](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walter_Windchill)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2006, 2:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-some-next-thing-you-know-cases-that-never-happened/349024/28 "2006-03-21T02:19:20Z")
Thanks for the thoughtful responses, everyone. There’s some good examples. If people keep talking nice like this, the next thing you know the pit will be a hot tub party. ---
**Author:** ![Zoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/a4c791/32.png) [@Zoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zoe)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2006, 7:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-some-next-thing-you-know-cases-that-never-happened/349024/29 "2006-03-21T07:20:30Z")
From my own youth: “If we elect a Catholic President, the Pope will run America.” “If we let them put floride in our drinking water, we’ll all turn into Communists.” ---
**Author:** ![emacknight](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/3ec8ea/32.png) [@emacknight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/emacknight)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2006, 1:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-some-next-thing-you-know-cases-that-never-happened/349024/30 "2006-03-22T01:55:27Z")
I found another one. Minneapolis, MN, recently banned smoking in Hennepin County bars and restaurants. Opposition to the bill predicted that all the restaurants and bars would go out of business as a result, but turns out they were wrong ([cite](http://www.twincities.com/mld/pioneerpress/news/local/14147115.htm) and [cite](http://wcco.com/consumer/local_story_080124522.html)). ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2006, 2:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-some-next-thing-you-know-cases-that-never-happened/349024/31 "2006-03-22T02:08:40Z")
“I say to you that the VCR is to the American film producer and the American public as the Boston strangler is to the woman home alone.” – Jack Valenti, testifying before Congress in 1982 ---
**Author:** ![Shagnasty](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9dc877/32.png) [@Shagnasty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shagnasty)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2006, 2:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-some-next-thing-you-know-cases-that-never-happened/349024/32 "2006-03-22T02:45:54Z")
There are tons of them in which someone looks at a current trend and draws it out as a straight line on a graph to some future time and draws dire conclusions. Population doomsday estimates had that flaw especially when they didn’t take into account things like new technology making food more abundant. These types of claims still seem popular. I have read several recently that make claims like: “The non-muslim white population of Europe has fallen below replacement fertility levels while the muslim European population shows much greater population growth. Therefore, if you draw this graph out to the 2175, you will see that Europe will be 95% muslim by that time”. Current trends do not prove trends in the future. There will probably other things to take into account by then. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2006, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-some-next-thing-you-know-cases-that-never-happened/349024/33 "2006-03-22T13:36:03Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > When there was a proposal on the Florida ballot in 2004 to raise the minimum wage to $6.40 an hour, those campaigning against it predicted it would drive a lot of businesses out of business, and/or increase unemployment. Neither has happened, AFAIK. But the new wage has been in effect only since 1/1/06. But, based on other states’ experiences after raising their MW, I ain’t too worried. See this study: [http://www.epinet.org/content.cfm/briefingpapers\_bp150](http://www.epinet.org/content.cfm/briefingpapers_bp150) ---
**Author:** ![Push\_You\_Down](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/push_you_down/32/9095_2.png) [@Push\_You\_Down](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Push_You_Down)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2006, 10:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-some-next-thing-you-know-cases-that-never-happened/349024/34 "2006-03-24T22:34:10Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > Alright, I’ll take a stab at that. Shortly before the invasion of Iraq three years ago, I saw a Shockwave animation about what would happen if the US invaded and Iraq did have WMD. As I remember it, _in part_, Iraq nukes Israel, fanatical Wahhabists overthrow the Saudi royal family and the country became the Islamic Republic of Arabia, Musharraf is killed in Pakistan, which nukes and is nuked by India, and major cities in the US and Europe are attacked by terrorists. Maybe it was satire or ‘what if’ instead of a prediction, but I don’t think everybody took it that way. I remember that. I believe it was presented as a shockwave “game” where really you only had two options in the game (both very early). It was to illustrate how out of control the situation would become. One of those options was which former Saddam right hand to install as the “strong man” to keep the country in line after the invasion. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2006, 10:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-some-next-thing-you-know-cases-that-never-happened/349024/35 "2006-03-24T22:58:28Z")
> [@emacknight](#): > > I found another one. Minneapolis, MN, recently banned smoking in Hennepin County bars and restaurants. Opposition to the bill predicted that all the restaurants and bars would go out of business as a result, but turns out they were wrong ([cite](http://www.twincities.com/mld/pioneerpress/news/local/14147115.htm) and [cite](http://wcco.com/consumer/local_story_080124522.html)). Same as in CA, and as **Mach Tuck** pointed out, business actually increased overall. But a few have come rather close. The '3 day waiting period for handguns" in CA did grown to 10 days (or is it more?) and has extended to rifles and shotguns also, with a requirement for a class, and the banning of some dangerous looking “assault rifles” :rolleyes: . And, quite a few non-firearms have been banned, such as nun-chucks. So, maybe butterknifes are next? :dubious: SoAfrica did teeter towards commumism, and it’s not out of the woods yet- and there were some localized bloodbaths. However, the situation was/is no-where near as bad as the worst that was prophesized. And, as **Captain Amazing** pointed out, the “Domino theory” wasn’t entirely wrong. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2006, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-some-next-thing-you-know-cases-that-never-happened/349024/36 "2006-03-25T16:59:17Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > But a few have come rather close. The '3 day waiting period for handguns" in CA did grown to 10 days (or is it more?) and has extended to rifles and shotguns also, with a requirement for a class, and the banning of some dangerous looking “assault rifles” :rolleyes: . And, quite a few non-firearms have been banned, such as nun-chucks. Mmmm . . . Why would anyone have cited those things as frightening “slippery slope” possibilities before the 3-day waiting period was enacted? I mean, what’s frightening about them? ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2006, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-some-next-thing-you-know-cases-that-never-happened/349024/37 "2006-03-25T17:10:04Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Mmmm . . . Why would anyone have cited those things as frightening “slippery slope” possibilities before the 3-day waiting period was enacted? I mean, what’s frightening about them? They are steps on the way to a total ban. And they have done nothing in reducing the rate of violent crime. They \*did \*predict that the Waiting period would become longer and longer. But let’s not turn this into a Gun Control debate. In any case, these steps are further along the path of “if we register handguns, the next thing you know you’ll have to register to buy a butterknife and wait for nine days.” (although no one ever said “butterknife”, the wait is now longer than 9 days) ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2006, 6:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-some-next-thing-you-know-cases-that-never-happened/349024/38 "2006-03-25T18:03:03Z")
Would it be politic to mention Lomborg’s _The Skeptical Environmentalist_? ---
**Author:** ![astorian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ad7895/32.png) [@astorian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astorian)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2006, 3:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-some-next-thing-you-know-cases-that-never-happened/349024/39 "2006-03-26T03:03:39Z")
How about, “If we elect Ronald Reagan, he’ll blow up the world”? Last time I looked, the world was still here. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2006, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-some-next-thing-you-know-cases-that-never-happened/349024/40 "2006-03-26T16:41:10Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > Would it be politic to mention Lomborg’s _The Skeptical Environmentalist_? Perfectly politic to mention it, but it might be foolish to take it seriously. [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skeptical\_environmentalist#Criticism](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skeptical_environmentalist#Criticism) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-some-next-thing-you-know-cases-that-never-happened/349024.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-some-next-thing-you-know-cases-that-never-happened/349024.md?page=3)