# What are the chances of the Russian Federation breaking up? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion\ **Created:** [February 22, 2023, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-of-the-russian-federation-breaking-up/980209 "2023-02-22T20:52:50Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 11\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2023, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-of-the-russian-federation-breaking-up/980209/1 "2023-02-22T20:52:50Z")
I don’t know enough about Russia’s demographics and ethnic composition to venture a guess, but then I read posts from @Stranger_On_A_Train and @LSLGuy in the “End-game” thread and I start to wonder: what are the chances that the Russian federation will break up? Is there any unrest in the Far East of Russia? Areas where non-Russians are the majority or substantial minority? (This isn’t really a Great Debate, since I have no position, but not a Factual Question either, so I’ve stuck it in IMHO.) ---
**Author:** ![Charlie\_Tan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/charlie_tan/32/12582_2.png) [@Charlie\_Tan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Charlie_Tan)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2023, 8:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-of-the-russian-federation-breaking-up/980209/2 "2023-02-22T20:59:07Z")
This doesn’t answer the question, in spite of the title. But it gives a pretty good rundown about ethnicities and different regions. [![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/NC37nAxP8ac/maxresdefault.jpg "What If Russia Broke Up?") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NC37nAxP8ac) ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2023, 9:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-of-the-russian-federation-breaking-up/980209/3 "2023-02-22T21:16:03Z")
Thank you. Will take a look. Interesting article on the “Russian Cross” - when Russia’s death rate crossed over the birth rate in 1992. > **[Russian Cross](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Cross)** > > The Russian Cross is the name of a demographic trend that occurred in Russia and many other countries of the former Warsaw Pact. In Russia, starting in 1988, birth rates among native Russians (as well as most other ethnic groups of the European part of the former Soviet Union) were declining, while from 1991 (when Soviet Union collapsed) the death rates started climbing. > In 1992, the number of deaths exceeded the number of births and continued to do so to a greater or lesser degree until 2013. W... ---
**Author:** ![Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmer_j.fudd/32/1211_2.png) [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2023, 1:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-of-the-russian-federation-breaking-up/980209/4 "2023-02-23T01:20:00Z")
Reading about the Russian Cross and alcohol consumption kind of confirms my theory that popular uprisings are difficult in fatalistic cultures. [Russian avos' - Wikipedia](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_avos)’ ---
**Author:** ![Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmer_j.fudd/32/1211_2.png) [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2023, 1:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-of-the-russian-federation-breaking-up/980209/5 "2023-02-23T01:38:58Z")
Here’s an interesting wiki article. Note the highlighted CYA at the beginning. > **[Separatism in Russia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Separatism_in_Russia?wprov=sfti1)** > > Separatism in Russia refers to bids for secession or autonomy for certain areas of the Russian Federation. There are several separatist movements in Russia, but promoting separatism is illegal. > Many separatist movements in Russia have existed before the collapse of the Soviet Union and have some support from the local elites and people. Some have risen to relevance after the 2022-2023 Russian invasion of Ukraine. > The main groups pushing for autonomy and separatism within the Northwestern Federa... ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2023, 1:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-of-the-russian-federation-breaking-up/980209/6 "2023-02-23T01:47:35Z")
My personal opinion is that it’s unlikely. Russian regimes have always been aware of the possibility of their empire breaking up. The Putin regime may be brutal but they’re not incompetent. They’re watching for the signs and are willing to use force when those signs appear. They don’t have to worry very much about public opinion going against them either. I feel that most Russians are opposed to the idea of parts of the country breaking away and would support the regime suppressing any secessionist movements. The only way is see any break-up happening is if the Putin regime collapses and there is fighting among various factions over who takes power next. In a case like that, there might be a period when the various contenders pull their supporting forces in to the center of the country and that could create an opening for secessionists out on the fringe. But whichever faction gains power will quickly move to gather these breakaway regions back under its control. ---
**Author:** ![Charlie\_Tan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/charlie_tan/32/12582_2.png) [@Charlie\_Tan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Charlie_Tan)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2023, 3:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-of-the-russian-federation-breaking-up/980209/7 "2023-02-23T15:16:01Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > Interesting article on the “Russian Cross” - when Russia’s death rate crossed over the birth rate in 1992. > > [Russian Cross - Wikipedia](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Cross) And here I am with another video, addressing just that in the context of thee war. BTW, Ukraine suffers the same demographic problems. [![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/f1WFrsz4g14/maxresdefault.jpg "How War in Ukraine is Destroying Russia") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f1WFrsz4g14) ---
**Author:** ![PatrickLondon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/patricklondon/32/4422_2.png) [@PatrickLondon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatrickLondon)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2023, 11:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-of-the-russian-federation-breaking-up/980209/8 "2023-02-27T11:09:16Z")
Is someone in the Kremlin reading this thread? Could this be Putin’s ‘written evidence’ of a western plot?! > **[Vladimir Putin accuses west of seeking to ‘dismember’ Russia](https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/26/vladimir-putin-acccuses-west-of-seeking-to-dismember-russia)** > > Russian leader’s comments on state TV channel follow first anniversary of invasion of Ukraine ---
**Author:** ![Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmer_j.fudd/32/1211_2.png) [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2023, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-of-the-russian-federation-breaking-up/980209/9 "2023-02-27T17:49:54Z")
If Putin thinks Ukraine is part of Russia, he’s right. ---
**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2023, 1:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-of-the-russian-federation-breaking-up/980209/10 "2023-03-05T13:05:34Z")
Today I have been reading some facts related to Russia’s demographic problems and they are extraordinary. - The life expectancy of Russian men aged 15 is now the same as it is in Haiti - down by 5 years. - The number of Russian’s born in April was at the same level as it was during the months of Hitler’s occupation. - And because of war and the exodus of young men, women now outnumber men by more than 10 million. - The Russian population has shrunk by 2 million in the last three years due to war, exodus and disease. ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [December 9, 2023, 8:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-of-the-russian-federation-breaking-up/980209/11 "2023-12-09T20:37:23Z")
Russia was demographically fucked before this disastrous invasion of Ukraine, and it has gotten dramatically worse since. Frankly, it is difficult to see Russia even being a functional nation twenty-five years from now notwithstanding that their internal industrial base is essentially on its last legs. Unfortunately, I’m not sure the rest of the world has much more time, either. Stranger