# What are the chances that Obama cruises into his second term? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 14, 2012, 11:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-that-obama-cruises-into-his-second-term/612859 "2012-02-14T23:10:55Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2012, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-that-obama-cruises-into-his-second-term/612859/21 "2012-02-15T16:49:12Z")
> [@shiftless](#): > > I predict that Obama’s message of hope, if he can pull that off again, will draw enough votes to give him the win by a thin magin over the Republican message of “it’s all Obama’s fault.” This. I don’t think going negative will work too well for Obama, although it’ll be somewhat unavoidable given what he’s sure to be up against. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2012, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-that-obama-cruises-into-his-second-term/612859/22 "2012-02-15T16:59:44Z")
And this just in… > **[Jeez, Democrats Are Slaughtering The GOP When It Comes To Public Opinion](https://www.businessinsider.com/jeez-democrats-are-slaughtering-the-gop-when-it-comes-to-public-opinion-2012-2)** “Only 26% of Americans think Republicans are taking the country in the right direction.” ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2012, 5:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-that-obama-cruises-into-his-second-term/612859/23 "2012-02-15T17:05:07Z")
How much money is bet on the election at Intrade? For such a market to be a good predictor, the amount bet needs to be large. How does Intrade’s volume compare with that of London bookies? There was a webpage that showed odds in the Presidential nominations and elections for each of a dozen different sportsbooks, but I can’t find it anymore. ☹ Obama’s chances seem to have increased considerably just in the past few weeks, as judged by odds at British sportsbooks. _Ladbrokes_ currently quotes 1.53, 2.62, 51 (all “for 1”) for Dem, GOP, Independent respectively. These correspond to probabilities of 65.4%, 38.2%, 2.0%. Odds at _Paddy Power_ are 8/15, 11/8, 50/1, or 65.2%, 42.1%, 2.0%. After subtracting effective “vigorish”, these British markets are seen to estimate Democrat victory at 61-63% ---
**Author:** ![Crotalus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crotalus/32/41_2.png) [@Crotalus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crotalus)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2012, 5:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-that-obama-cruises-into-his-second-term/612859/24 "2012-02-15T17:27:10Z")
I think the OP is over-stating the ridiculousness of the Republican performance and candidates so far. There was a really long pre-primary campaign period that didn’t involve real state-specific campaigning so much as it did debates, really frequent debates. The price of entry for candidates before the primaries was low, and a bunch of people got involved. Most of them were not serious contenders for the nomination. Some look like clowns to some Democrats, but all had some appeal to a segment of Republicans. The two candidates who had to be taken seriously were Gingrich and Romney. Gingrich has a poisonous history with the Republican party from his time in Congress. He’s an intelligent guy with some serious flaws, but those flaws are not what did him in. His own party does not want him to be the candidate due to his behavior during his time as speaker of the house. Romney is the preferred candidate of the party, for the same old reason: it’s his turn. Voters have not warmed up to him at all, and his candidacy has a chance of ending in one of his several “home” states: Michigan. Real Clear Politics has a composite Michigan poll that shows Santorum ahead of Romney by 9 per cent. If Romney loses Michigan, I don’t know what he or the party will do. If Santorum is the nominee, Obama will slaughter him. If Romney loses Michigan and still becomes the nominee, Obama will beat him fairly easily if current economic trends continue. MHO. ---
**Author:** ![Kozmik](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/8dc957/32.png) [@Kozmik](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kozmik)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2012, 5:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-that-obama-cruises-into-his-second-term/612859/25 "2012-02-15T17:27:47Z")
[Obama Set To Cruise Into Second Term](http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/15/us/politics/economic-gains-give-lift-to-obama-in-poll.html?_r=1&ref=todayspaper) ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2012, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-that-obama-cruises-into-his-second-term/612859/26 "2012-02-15T17:51:43Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > How much money is bet on the election at Intrade? For such a market to be a good predictor, the amount bet needs to be large. Intrade currently has [119,700 shares outstanding on Obama to win](http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743474), at a current price of $5.99 per share. That’s $717,003 ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2012, 6:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-that-obama-cruises-into-his-second-term/612859/27 "2012-02-15T18:05:17Z")
As an aside, it would be very foolish to offer odds as extreme as 20-1, given where the established betting markets are standing. On the one hand, there’s no reason for anyone to turn down those odds, since they could very easily arbitrage them against the established markets, and end up in a win-win situation. On the other hand, if you’re confident enough in those odds to be offering them, then you should jump at the chance of getting in on the action in the established markets. ---
**Author:** ![iamthewalrus\_3](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/258eb7/32.png) [@iamthewalrus\_3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iamthewalrus_3)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2012, 7:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-that-obama-cruises-into-his-second-term/612859/28 "2012-02-15T19:09:39Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > I wasn’t offering to bet anyone anything. I was just offering an opinion on odds. But let’s say I wanted to take you up on your wager. Exactly what are you offering to bet on? Whether or not Obama is elected to a second term. I think he’s likely to, I just think your odds are way off. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2012, 7:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-that-obama-cruises-into-his-second-term/612859/29 "2012-02-15T19:48:41Z")
[Pretty good chances,](http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/15/us/politics/economic-gains-give-lift-to-obama-in-poll.html?_r=3&ref=todayspaper) I’d say. > [@](#): > > **Economic Growth Gives Lift to Obama in NYT/CBS Poll** > By JIM RUTENBERG and ALLISON KOPICKI > > Published: February 14, 2012 > > President Obama’s political standing is rising along with voters’ optimism that the economy is getting better, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll, a shift that coincides with continued Republican disquiet over the field of candidates seeking to replace him. > > Consecutive months of job growth, the bullish stock market and improving consumer demand appear to be benefiting — for now, at least — a president who stated outright three years ago that his chances for a second term would depend on his ability to persuade the country that its economy was on the mend by this very month. > > In what could be a turning point, the percentage of people who said they believed the economic outlook was improving is now greater, by double digits, than the percentage of those who said they believed it was getting worse, a reversal from a low point in September, when pessimists outnumbered optimists by more than three to one. > > Showing steady improvement since early December, Mr. Obama’s approval rating has reached the 50 percent mark in The Times/CBS News poll — an important baseline in presidential politics and his highest approval rating since May 2010 (excepting the brief bump he received after Navy Seals killed Osama bin Laden in May 2011). > > For the first time since the election season began in earnest in the late summer, as many Democratic voters as Republicans said they were more enthusiastic than usual about voting in the 2012 presidential election. That would appear to wipe out the “enthusiasm gap” that promised to help Republicans greatly next fall. ---
**Author:** ![Frodo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/frodo/32/302_2.png) [@Frodo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frodo)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2012, 8:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-that-obama-cruises-into-his-second-term/612859/30 "2012-02-15T20:01:14Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > And this just in… > > [http://www.businessinsider.com/jeez-democrats-are-slaughtering-the-gop-when-it-comes-to-public-opinion-2012-2](http://www.businessinsider.com/jeez-democrats-are-slaughtering-the-gop-when-it-comes-to-public-opinion-2012-2) > > “Only 26% of Americans think Republicans are taking the country in the right direction.” There’s that [number](http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Crazification_factor)again… ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2012, 8:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-that-obama-cruises-into-his-second-term/612859/31 "2012-02-15T20:03:06Z")
If I could win a million dollars betting on Newt or Frothy Lube, I’d like to think I wouldn’t do it. I’d really like to. ---
**Author:** ![That\_Don\_Guy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/that_don_guy/32/538_2.png) [@That\_Don\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/That_Don_Guy)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2012, 8:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-that-obama-cruises-into-his-second-term/612859/32 "2012-02-15T20:15:17Z")
What is the definition of “cruises into his second term”? I don’t see any of the Republicans having much of a chance - then again, who saw Carter having much of a chance against Ford in February, 1976? It could also come down to two things: One, will the Republicans nominate somebody on the first ballot? (My guess: yes, and it will be Romney.) Two, if it is Romney, and he doesn’t choose Santorum as his running mate, would Santorum decide to run as an independent? (Without this, the Republicans who aren’t particularly happy with either Obama or Romney would “put party first” and vote for Romney, but if there is anything close to a “tea party choice”, the Republican vote would split.) (I believe that if, somehow, Santorum gets the nomination, enough Republicans, given a choice between him and Obama, would consider Obama “the lesser of two evils.”) ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2012, 8:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-that-obama-cruises-into-his-second-term/612859/33 "2012-02-15T20:20:49Z")
> [@That\_Don\_Guy](#): > > What is the definition of “cruises into his second term”? Landslide-and-coattails. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2012, 9:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-that-obama-cruises-into-his-second-term/612859/34 "2012-02-15T21:11:51Z")
Personally, I can’t see how any of the current crop of candidates can even win the nomination. It feels like the most likely outcome is for them to still be bickering over who their candidate is come November. ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2012, 9:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-that-obama-cruises-into-his-second-term/612859/35 "2012-02-15T21:30:20Z")
> [@Crotalus](#): > > I think the OP is over-stating the ridiculousness of the Republican performance and candidates so far. There was a really long pre-primary campaign period that didn’t involve real state-specific campaigning so much as it did debates, really frequent debates. The price of entry for candidates before the primaries was low, and a bunch of people got involved. Most of them were not serious contenders for the nomination. Some look like clowns to some Democrats, but all had some appeal to a segment of Republicans. The two candidates who had to be taken seriously were Gingrich and Romney. > > Gingrich has a poisonous history with the Republican party from his time in Congress. He’s an intelligent guy with some serious flaws, but those flaws are not what did him in. His own party does not want him to be the candidate due to his behavior during his time as speaker of the house. > > Romney is the preferred candidate of the party, for the same old reason: it’s his turn. Voters have not warmed up to him at all, and his candidacy has a chance of ending in one of his several “home” states: Michigan. Real Clear Politics has a composite Michigan poll that shows Santorum ahead of Romney by 9 per cent. If Romney loses Michigan, I don’t know what he or the party will do. If Santorum is the nominee, Obama will slaughter him. If Romney loses Michigan and still becomes the nominee, Obama will beat him fairly easily if current economic trends continue. MHO. There were 26 debates durign the Democratic primaries **26!**. We were fucking DROWNING in great Democratic candidates in 2008, there were about a half dozen of them that could have won that election. AND we were basically down to two candidates after South Carolina. In 2012, the republican put up the a host of candidates, none of whom are particularly strong. I suppose its the field might be sstronger in 2012 but not if the Republicans are still under the influence of the crazies. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2012, 9:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-that-obama-cruises-into-his-second-term/612859/36 "2012-02-15T21:35:18Z")
> [@That\_Don\_Guy](#): > > What is the definition of “cruises into his second term”? > > I don’t see any of the Republicans having much of a chance - then again, who saw Carter having much of a chance against Ford in February, 1976? Are you kidding? Ford looked like a weak candidate in February 1976, for whatever Dem ran against him. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2012, 9:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-that-obama-cruises-into-his-second-term/612859/37 "2012-02-15T21:51:14Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Are you kidding? Ford looked like a weak candidate in February 1976, for whatever Dem ran against him. Right. The economy was not in good shape, and people were still pissed over Nixon. The surprise in Carter is that he came from obscurity in a very crowded Democratic primary field. According to Wikipedia, 16 Democratic candidates entered the race, and 14 were still in the race by the time of the Iowa caucus. (Of course, by this point in 1976, we’d only had the Iowa caucus, and were still a week-plus away from New Hampshire.) ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2012, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-that-obama-cruises-into-his-second-term/612859/38 "2012-02-15T22:16:38Z")
> [@iamthewalrus\_3](#): > > Whether or not Obama is elected to a second term. > > I think he’s likely to, I just think your odds are way off. To be clear: I think there is, at the moment, about a 5% chance that Obama will lose the POTUS election. I’m not saying he’ll get 95% of the vote, just that his chance of losing is about 5%. My internet betting limit is 50 quatloos for this type of thing. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2012, 10:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-that-obama-cruises-into-his-second-term/612859/39 "2012-02-15T22:32:19Z")
I’m willing to wager my Greek bonds that Obama loses. Anyone interested? 🙂 I can’t believe that Santorum will get the nomination, but if he does, Obama cruises. If it’s Romney, it depends on the economy. Although there are glimmers of hope in the economy, Europe is in a world of trouble, and if there is an economic downturn there, it is likely to pull us downward, too. I wouldn’t bet too much on the economy, as there is too much uncertainty. ---
**Author:** ![B.Serum](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/b.serum/32/14266_2.png) [@B.Serum](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/B.Serum)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2012, 10:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-that-obama-cruises-into-his-second-term/612859/40 "2012-02-15T22:39:59Z")
Odds are strong, I’d say 3-2 in Obama’s favor. [ul] [li]The country has gotten some buyer’s remorse over the Republican/Tea Party midterm wins. After campaigning on “Jobs! Jobs! Jobs!,” all we’ve seen is anti-abortion and anti-contraception(?!) laws being pursued. I think Congress’ historic low approval rating is a result of this bait & switch, combined with its systemic obstructionist behavior.[/li][/ul] [ul] [li]As it ever was, this is a battle for the swing states, and that means appealing to political moderates. But this extended primary season has seen the candidates chasing after the far-right voter, making it that much harder to walk back fringe-y comments to appeal to the middle.[/li][/ul] [ul] [li]This is the first Tea Party era Presidential election. I think this factor will upsets a lot of GOP maxims of old, such as “It’s his turn,” and “Republicans fall in line.” I’m curious to see how it will manifest, but I expect the far-right voters will reject Romney outright. Nominating a third party would be suicide, but maybe they’ll stay home from the polls in dissatisfaction.[/li][/ul] [ul] [li]The precarious economy and unemployment is an undeniable liability for Obama.[/li][/ul] [ul] [li]The European financial clusterfuck and it’s effects on our economy could either sink any incumbent’s chances (or) scare the electorate from changing horses to an untested prospect when things are so dire.[/li][/ul] [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-that-obama-cruises-into-his-second-term/612859.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-that-obama-cruises-into-his-second-term/612859.md?page=3)