# What are the chances the UK will really Brexit? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [June 25, 2016, 7:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-the-uk-will-really-brexit/758345 "2016-06-25T19:54:57Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![dropzone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dropzone/32/7515_2.png) [@dropzone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dropzone)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2016, 7:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-the-uk-will-really-brexit/758345/1 "2016-06-25T19:54:57Z")
It’s a non-binding referendum with a razor-thin outcome. I’ve heard that Boris Johnson really sees the vote as a chance to renegotiate the UK’s contract with the EU, and even if he’s the next PM he’s in no hurry to invoke Article 50. Two or three years are far too short to renegotiate one treaty, much less hundreds. So, what are the odds the UK will actually go through with this? FTR, my skin in this is that my oldest is engaged to a fellow in Surrey. I suggested they move to Scotland, not just because I like the Scots. He’s Japanese and they met online. Gotta love the internet! ---
**Author:** ![Mangetout](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mangetout/32/19_2.png) [@Mangetout](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mangetout)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2016, 7:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-the-uk-will-really-brexit/758345/2 "2016-06-26T07:28:15Z")
Dunno. I thought the referendum was going to be close, but the other side of the line, so I am clearly not the best prognosticator, however, I think it might go a bit like this: [ul] [li]UK threatens to leave and sets a future date for invoking article 50[/li][li]Nothing much happens[/li][li]Date arrives, some last-minute bullshit delays the invocation by a few weeks or months[/li][li]Article 50 eventually invoked[/li][li]A bunch of ‘oh shit’ negotiation and bargaining takes place[/li][li]A deal is struck, the UK cancels its exit[/li][li]Less than 100% of the terms of the deal are actually met/delivered, but by now, everyone is very confused and either thinks they got more or less what they wanted, or appears unreasonable[/li][/ul] ---
**Author:** ![nightshadea](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/7ba0ec/32.png) [@nightshadea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nightshadea)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2016, 8:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-the-uk-will-really-brexit/758345/3 "2016-06-26T08:43:31Z")
the above scenario is what ive heard too although in slightly different forms it all comes down what Scotland and northern Ireland does ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2016, 11:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-the-uk-will-really-brexit/758345/4 "2016-06-26T11:19:53Z")
At this point it’s the EU that’s striking the hard bargaining position, saying they want a quick divorce. > **[Brexit: EU leaders demand quick UK exit as economic fallout grows | CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2016/06/25/europe/brexit-eu-leaders-meet/index.html)** > > Two days after UK voters decided to leave the EU, foreign ministers from the EU's six founding countries discussed the speed and strategy of the "Brexit." ---
**Author:** ![Go\_Arachnid\_Laser\_1](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/b2d939/32.png) [@Go\_Arachnid\_Laser\_1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Go_Arachnid_Laser_1)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2016, 11:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-the-uk-will-really-brexit/758345/5 "2016-06-26T11:39:42Z")
100%. While referendums should be treated more as indicative rather than an all or nothing type of vote, imo, this one was clearly stated as effectively binding, and that’s how the rules were set before the voting. ---
**Author:** ![Mangetout](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mangetout/32/19_2.png) [@Mangetout](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mangetout)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2016, 9:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-the-uk-will-really-brexit/758345/6 "2016-06-26T21:38:29Z")
> [@Go\_Arachnid\_Laser](#): > > 100%. While referendums should be treated more as indicative rather than an all or nothing type of vote, imo, this one was clearly stated as effectively binding, and that’s how the rules were set before the voting. Was it? I don’t recall seeing any such thing. ---
**Author:** ![iljitsch](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/77aa72/32.png) [@iljitsch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iljitsch)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2016, 10:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-the-uk-will-really-brexit/758345/7 "2016-06-26T22:05:40Z")
What I wonder about is how long the UK can/will postpone invoking article 50. If Johnson becomes PM he could very well be looking for a way to backtrack, the story has always been that his pro-leave position was only based on self-serving motives anyway. If the pound and the stock markets continue to fall throughout the summer this could become an attractive option. But once they invoke article 50 it’ll be harder / more expensive to turn things around. The EU wants this to move quickly, but so far I don’t know what exactly that is supposed to mean. Next week? Next month? Before the end of the year? ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2016, 10:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-the-uk-will-really-brexit/758345/8 "2016-06-26T22:10:02Z")
Boris issued a statement. Reassuring both sides that Britain will always have close ties to Europe. I won’t try to summarize what he said. You can read it for yourself. I think Brexit will happen. There are too many votes to just ignore. What gets negotiated depends on who is the new PM. > **[I cannot stress too much that Britain is part of Europe – and always will be...](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2016/06/26/i-cannot-stress-too-much-that-britain-is-part-of-europe--and-alw/)** > > This EU referendum has been the most extraordinary political event of our lifetime. ---
**Author:** ![iljitsch](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/77aa72/32.png) [@iljitsch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iljitsch)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2016, 10:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-the-uk-will-really-brexit/758345/9 "2016-06-26T22:19:33Z")
> [@aceplace57](#): > > There are too many votes to just ignore. That is so ridiculous. Why do the 52% count but not the 48%? That’s the problem with referendums. If it’s close, almost 50% will be disappointed. If it’s not close, then why bother? ---
**Author:** ![Lok](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e8c25b/32.png) [@Lok](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lok)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2016, 12:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-the-uk-will-really-brexit/758345/10 "2016-06-27T00:15:06Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > At this point it’s the EU that’s striking the hard bargaining position, saying they want a quick divorce. > > [http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/25/europe/brexit-eu-leaders-meet/index.html](http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/25/europe/brexit-eu-leaders-meet/index.html) The EU can want whatever they want. But nothing happens until the British government invokes Article 50 and starts the process of negotiating the terms of the exit. Until then, the UK remains a full member of the EU. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2016, 12:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-the-uk-will-really-brexit/758345/11 "2016-06-27T00:32:20Z")
> [@Lok](#): > > The EU can want whatever they want. But nothing happens until the British government invokes Article 50 and starts the process of negotiating the terms of the exit. Until then, the UK remains a full member of the EU. Yes, that’s the way I see it. It’s up to the exiting country to initiate the process. It’s greatly in the EU’s interest to keep the UK in. They should be helping the UK look for options on staying, not forcing them out. ---
**Author:** ![Lok](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e8c25b/32.png) [@Lok](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lok)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2016, 12:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-the-uk-will-really-brexit/758345/12 "2016-06-27T00:38:20Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Yes, that’s the way I see it. It’s up to the exiting country to initiate the process. It’s greatly in the EU’s interest to keep the UK in. They should be helping the UK look for options on staying, not forcing them out. There are opinions being voiced that the EU wants to hit the UK hard during the negotiations to discourage others from having their own referendums. Interestingly, the German Foreign Minister was one of the people calling for the UK to get out ASAP. But Merkel is being the voice of reason, saying there is no rush. ---
**Author:** ![octopus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/octopus/32/3716_2.png) [@octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/octopus)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2016, 12:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-the-uk-will-really-brexit/758345/13 "2016-06-27T00:58:22Z")
> [@iljitsch](#): > > That is so ridiculous. Why do the 52% count but not the 48%? > > That’s the problem with referendums. If it’s close, almost 50% will be disappointed. If it’s not close, then why bother? The 48% did count. ---
**Author:** ![Waymore](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/919ad9/32.png) [@Waymore](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Waymore)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2016, 1:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-the-uk-will-really-brexit/758345/14 "2016-06-27T01:21:07Z")
> [@iljitsch](#): > > That is so ridiculous. Why do the 52% count but not the 48%? That’s simply democracy. The [2012](http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/national.php) presidential election has similar numbers. I don’t see how Obama’s victory is any more ridiculous than the leave victory. ---
**Author:** ![UDS](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecae2f/32.png) [@UDS](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UDS)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2016, 2:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-the-uk-will-really-brexit/758345/15 "2016-06-27T02:42:28Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Yes, that’s the way I see it. It’s up to the exiting country to initiate the process. It’s greatly in the EU’s interest to keep the UK in. They should be helping the UK look for options on staying, not forcing them out. But the UK isn’t deferring serving its Art. 50 notice in an attempt to stay in; it’s deferring serving its Art. 50 notice in an attempt to improve its negotiating position when the exit negotiations do start. You can see why the EU would be seriously pissed off about this. Whatever the impact of the exit on the UK, it’s destabilising for the EU, and makes for uncertainty. This is not something the EU wants to have prolonged, and their desire for a rapid resolution is both predictable and entirely reasonable. If the UK doesn’t serve an Art 50 notice because they have decided not to leave after all, that would be one thing. But the stated position of the UK government is as it always has been; the outcome of the referendum will be implemented. Given that, delay in serving the Art. 50 notice just looks like posturing by the UK to the detriment of the remaining EU countries with which it stays it wants a friendly relationship. This is not the way to build a friendly relationship. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2016, 2:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-the-uk-will-really-brexit/758345/16 "2016-06-27T02:44:27Z")
> [@iljitsch](#): > > That is so ridiculous. Why do the 52% count but not the 48%? By this logic, if the UK had voted 52% to Remain, then what if someone for the Leave camp complained, “Why do the 52% count but not the 48%?” ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2016, 3:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-the-uk-will-really-brexit/758345/17 "2016-06-27T03:04:46Z")
The best way for the EU to avoid instability is to actually serve its citizens rather than the lofty desires of the elite. Just let Britain go, learn from it, reform, and then Britain will want to come back and even Norway might want to join. ---
**Author:** ![UDS](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecae2f/32.png) [@UDS](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UDS)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2016, 3:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-the-uk-will-really-brexit/758345/18 "2016-06-27T03:14:40Z")
> [@Mangetout](#): > > Dunno. I thought the referendum was going to be close, but the other side of the line, so I am clearly not the best prognosticator, however, I think it might go a bit like this: > > [ul] > [li]UK threatens to leave and sets a future date for invoking article 50[/li][li]Nothing much happens[/li][li]Date arrives, some last-minute bullshit delays the invocation by a few weeks or months[/li][li]Article 50 eventually invoked[/li][li]A bunch of ‘oh shit’ negotiation and bargaining takes place[/li][li]A deal is struck, the UK cancels its exit[/li][li]Less than 100% of the terms of the deal are actually met/delivered, but by now, everyone is very confused and either thinks they got more or less what they wanted, or appears unreasonable[/li][/ul] You hit a hurdle at the second last step. Once the Art. 50 notice is served, UK exit _will happen_, unless all 28 member states agree that it will not. Thus the UK can’t unilaterally “cancel its exit”. The UK would have to eat some serious humble pie, and abandon any notion of using this kind of brinksmanship to extort any kind of carveout, sweet deal, etc for the UK, in order to have any chance of getting unanimous agreement from the other 27 to its remaning in the EU. ---
**Author:** ![Battle\_Pope](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/4bbf92/32.png) [@Battle\_Pope](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Battle_Pope)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2016, 3:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-the-uk-will-really-brexit/758345/19 "2016-06-27T03:29:45Z")
Looking at [this](http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-26/sturgeon-to-negotiate-best-way-forward-for-scotland/7545104) article, it appears that Scotland may be able to veto the decision to invoke Article 50 before it happens: > [@](#): > > Under the UK’s complex arrangements to devolve some powers to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, legislation generated in London to give effect to the vote to leave the EU would have to gain consent from the three devolved Parliaments. > > Asked on BBC television whether she would consider asking the Scottish Parliament to block a motion of legislative consent, Sturgeon said: “Of course”. Either that or Scotland flips the rest of the UK the bird, has another referendum on leaving and stays in the EU. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2016, 3:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-the-uk-will-really-brexit/758345/20 "2016-06-27T03:34:34Z")
Unless Britain gets an awesome deal, staying in the EU would cause an extreme public reaction. Those who voted for Brexit are already disgruntled, thinking the government doesn’t represent them. REneging on Brexit will prove that the government doesn’t represent them. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-the-uk-will-really-brexit/758345.md?page=2)