# What are the chances Trump could run as an independent candidate? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 25, 2022, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-trump-could-run-as-an-independent-candidate/968536 "2022-07-25T16:44:48Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [July 26, 2022, 2:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-trump-could-run-as-an-independent-candidate/968536/21 "2022-07-26T02:06:59Z")
> [@Sherrerd](#): > > This is a very valid point. Trump might have to resort to telling his followers—reduced in number by this point, but still several million strong—that either they should write in his name and decline to vote for ANY other Republican, or they should skip voting altogether. > > Even if he ends up an influence-bereft shut-in at Mar-a-Lago, he will relish having screwed over the Republicans. That will keep him going for quite a while. Indeed. The “They rigged it so I can’t even get on the ballot!” claims practically write themselves, and you know his idiot supporters will buy it. ---
**Author:** ![betonbill](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/b782af/32.png) [@betonbill](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/betonbill)\ **Post date:** [July 26, 2022, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-trump-could-run-as-an-independent-candidate/968536/22 "2022-07-26T13:26:45Z")
How about simply revenge for the Republicans not supporting him. He can claim that the Repub party is full of RINOs and instead of voting R they should vote for him. It won’t get him reelected, but it also probably won’t get the Republican candidates elected. And that might satisfy his huge ego. ---
**Author:** ![Jackmannii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackmannii/32/311_2.png) [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)\ **Post date:** [July 26, 2022, 1:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-trump-could-run-as-an-independent-candidate/968536/23 "2022-07-26T13:38:42Z")
It’s highly likely that if Trump fails to get the GOP nomination, there will be a push to vote for him, either as an independent candidate or a write-in. Regardless of how much Trump is involved in the effort, a lot of diehard fans are going to vote for him, even if a demented-but-not-quite-as-crazy alternative (DeSantis?) is available as a new hero. If memory serves, the last time a revenge candidate split the Republican vote, we wound up with Woodrow Wilson as president - not a great outcome, but better than Taft. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [July 26, 2022, 8:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-trump-could-run-as-an-independent-candidate/968536/24 "2022-07-26T20:27:02Z")
To run as an independent would require that he admit he lost the Republican primary which is never going to happen. If he loses the nomination, then he will claim voter fraud by the Democrats to put Biden against a RINO Republican who is easy to beat. He will file lawsuit after law suit, and have his followers disrupt the Republican convention., and keep making a big stink until after the general. At which point he will demand a do-over with his name on the ballot. Unless Trump is incapacitated due to health or incarceration, the president will either be Trump or a Democrat. Trump will sabotage any non-Trump Republican candidate. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [July 26, 2022, 10:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-trump-could-run-as-an-independent-candidate/968536/25 "2022-07-26T22:30:24Z")
If DeSantis really _is_ a smarter Trump, why couldn’t he lasso Trump’s supporters as an equal or better alternative? People have been talking for months about DeSantis running in 2024. ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [July 26, 2022, 10:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-trump-could-run-as-an-independent-candidate/968536/26 "2022-07-26T22:33:43Z")
Not if he has to pay for it, which he probably would not. The media insisted on covering his opinions about stories and people rather than the actual stories and people. It worked well. It is an interesting question. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [July 26, 2022, 10:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-trump-could-run-as-an-independent-candidate/968536/27 "2022-07-26T22:58:05Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > If DeSantis really _is_ a smarter Trump, why couldn’t he lasso Trump’s supporters as an equal or better alternative? DeSantis doesn’t have the (_choke-gag_) charisma/star quality/magnetism that trump has, at least for Those People. It’s not policies and proposals that matter. It’s trump’s in-your-face audacity, unrestrained defiance, “stickin’-it-to-The-Man” insults and lies that appeal to his worshipers. He says out loud what they’d like to say to their boss or their neighbor of color. He has them fooled into thinking he’s their Champion, when he’s only in it for his own glorification and whatever money he can make. DeSantis couldn’t pull that off IMHO. Thank goodness. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [July 26, 2022, 11:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-trump-could-run-as-an-independent-candidate/968536/28 "2022-07-26T23:34:14Z")
Because Trump will be out there dismissing him as a RINO loser who only got to the governorship because Trump put him there. He may have been OK once, but he was so corrupted by his lust for power that he joined forces with the anti-Trump deep state to steal the primary. Who are you going to believe some ambulance chaser from Florida or the savior of America who you have devoted the last 8 years of your life to. Do you really want to admit that you might have been wrong about that? No, DeSanitis is literally Judas, and voting for him would be like killing Jesus all over again. ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [July 26, 2022, 11:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-trump-could-run-as-an-independent-candidate/968536/29 "2022-07-26T23:37:26Z")
> [@Buck\_Godot](#): > > … Who are you going to believe some ambulance chaser from Florida or the savior of America who you have devoted the last 8 years of your life to. Do you really want to admit that you might have been wrong about that? No, DeSanitis is literally Judas, and voting for him would be like killing Jesus all over again. I do hope that you and others skeptical of DeSantis’s chances are right. He’s as dedicated an authoritarian as Trump, but is less distracted by his ego needs from the tasks required to bring about a Putin-style dictatorship in the USA. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [July 27, 2022, 1:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-trump-could-run-as-an-independent-candidate/968536/30 "2022-07-27T01:49:14Z")
> [@Sherrerd](#): > > I do hope that you and others skeptical of DeSantis’s chances are right. He’s as dedicated an authoritarian as Trump, but is less distracted by his ego needs from the tasks required to bring about a Putin-style dictatorship in the USA. I am skeptical of anyone’s chances that isn’t Trump because if Trump loses the nomination he will make sure the Republican loses. I do not think he would run third party though, that’s a guaranteed loss for him and he would hate that. He can make the Republican lose without embarrassing himself. ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [July 27, 2022, 2:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-trump-could-run-as-an-independent-candidate/968536/31 "2022-07-27T02:13:48Z")
I’m not sure Trump expected to win and become President. Running was originally about the attention and boosting the brand. Although Trump cared little for tradition or policy details, he has considerable charisma and many unusual skills which make him hard to copy. Some liked the fact he claimed to be a billionaire, some his celebrity status, some felt a personal connection from random Twitter statements, some his disregard for manners, convention or reassurance, and avoiding controversy or things which worked in the past. Trump could read people well, read an audience, speak simply with much repetition, get away with things which few others could and usually know just where that line was. He can draw from a lifetime of leading and absence of conscience or need to reflect. In my view, however, the role of a leader is to attenuate fear. Who shows up after a disaster and then brags about how happy people were to meet him? ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [July 27, 2022, 3:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-trump-could-run-as-an-independent-candidate/968536/32 "2022-07-27T15:56:04Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > If DeSantis really _is_ a smarter Trump, why couldn’t he lasso Trump’s supporters as an equal or better alternative? Just because **we** see that doesn’t mean the Trumpers see it. After all, we see Trump for what he is, but they don’t. Trump has become a cult of personality. They’re not waving Republican flags, they’re waving Trump flags. If Trump is officially out as the Republican nominee, a lot of these people will sit out the election entirely, and a lot of them who do vote will be looking to spoil the election for that anti-Trump RINO candidate. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [July 27, 2022, 4:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-trump-could-run-as-an-independent-candidate/968536/33 "2022-07-27T16:13:33Z")
> [@Horatius](#): > > Trump has become a cult of personality. They’re not waving Republican flags, they’re waving Trump flags… This is it in a nutshell, emphasis on the _nut_. > [@Horatius](#): > > If Trump is officially out as the Republican nominee, a lot of these people will sit out the election entirely, and a lot of them who do vote will be looking to spoil the election for that anti-Trump RINO candidate… This sounds like a Good Thing to me. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [July 27, 2022, 4:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-trump-could-run-as-an-independent-candidate/968536/34 "2022-07-27T16:16:09Z")
> [@ThelmaLou](#): > > This sounds like a Good Thing to me. I’m tempted in that direction myself, but then I remember how we all felt when we thought Trump was just a joke candidate who would lead the GOP to ignominious defeat. ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2022, 2:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-trump-could-run-as-an-independent-candidate/968536/35 "2022-07-28T02:03:50Z")
This might be a simplistic assumption. I don’t fully disagree about people who deify Trump. However, maybe some people like Trump because he took action on an issue of great importance to them - say guns, stacking the court, tax breaks, foreign policy, minimalist regulation of some financial areas, etc. but understand “the joke” that he has unpleasant aspects as well they are willing to put up with. ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2022, 12:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-trump-could-run-as-an-independent-candidate/968536/36 "2022-07-29T00:02:12Z")
> [@DigitalC](#): > > I do not think he would run third party though, that’s a guaranteed loss for him and he would hate that. True. (But he might run long enough to grab some cash, then ‘suspend his campaign’ and let the very-weak federal election-oversight apparatus try to figure out what happened to all those donations.) ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2022, 12:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-trump-could-run-as-an-independent-candidate/968536/37 "2022-07-29T00:16:08Z")
For Trump to actively run in 2024 and then lose the nomination, the GOP would have to change so greatly that it’s hard to analyze. Trump has enthusiastic support within his party but is a weak November candidate. FoxNews has polling out today that looks quite bad for the Trumpy statewide candidates on my November ballot: > **[Fox News Poll: Oz supporters lack enthusiasm in Pennsylvania Senate race](https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-oz-supporters-lack-enthusiasm-pennsylvania-senate-race)** > > Democrats maintain solid leads over the GOP in Pennsylvania races for governor and Senate. Winning in Pennsylvania is critical for the GOP to regain Senate control. ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2022, 12:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-trump-could-run-as-an-independent-candidate/968536/38 "2022-07-29T00:35:00Z")
Americans have no particular reason to view a Canadian article summarizing recent polls, but it is fairly concise. Americans may not be in a sunny mood, this may play to Trump’s strengths, and it is not always wise to underestimate politicians who have maintained their popularity. Being a good option, and being a weak option are different things. But if Trump did run as an Independent, this implies something significant happened to reduce his chances. This being so, he would be unlikely to win as an independent. > **[ANALYSIS | Americans are in a bad mood, and that could bode well for Trump in...](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/trump-republicans-election-1.6534222)** > > The race for the Republican presidential nomination won't begin in earnest until after the midterms, but the question of whether former U.S. president Donald Trump will run already looms large. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2022, 12:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-trump-could-run-as-an-independent-candidate/968536/39 "2022-07-29T00:47:54Z")
If Trump lost the Republican nomination, then I think it’s almost certain that he would run third-party, and if he ran third-party, it’d be an easy win for the Democrats. But the Republican party leadership knows that as well as we do, and therefore won’t let it happen. If Trump is still alive and able to make sounds out of his mouth-hole, he will be the Republican candidate. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2022, 1:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-trump-could-run-as-an-independent-candidate/968536/40 "2022-07-29T01:00:44Z")
The degree of Trump-enthusiasm around here is hard to fathom. He totally outranks Jeebus. They LOVE Trump. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-trump-could-run-as-an-independent-candidate/968536.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-chances-trump-could-run-as-an-independent-candidate/968536.md?page=3)