Who is Singapore?
Good point, do you have any examples (besides Wiemar) of where this happened?
Thank you for the detailed summary!
I came into this with an assumption that a populace needs to be democratic-minded in order to keep the system democratic. Based on your descriptions, it seems to me that it is also important that the people in power are dedicated to and believe in a democratic process.
There’s a whole range of shades of disenfranchisement, from the legal disenfranchisement of women (a full 50% of the adult population), to the semi-legal but condoned Jim Crow era disenfranchisement in the South, to modern day North Carolina’s researching data on how black people vote, and then deliberately making it harder to vote those ways.
[quote=“DagNation, post:16, topic:766494”]
- France did it at least twice
…
What was going on in France that they put a dictator in power? Was the law insufficient, the government not good at following the law, were the people wanting a strong leader? Where there crazy elections? In 1940, the war probably pushed toward a dictator, was there something similar for Napoleon III?QUOTE]
I don’t think that either of the French examples mentioned really fit the criteria in the OP.
In the case of Napoleon III, I don’t think that France fit the case of a stable, well-established democracy. In the half-century before Napoleon III came to power:
• Napoleon I seized power in the Brumaire coup, establishing the Consulate government;
• Napoleon I established the First Empire, ending the First Republic;
• Napoleon I was defeated by the Allies and the Bourbons were restored, re-establishing a monarchical government that was not particularly democratic;
• Napoleon I escaped from Elba and toppled the Bourbons, re-establishing the First Empire;
• the Allies again defeated Napoleon I, at Waterloo, and the Bourbons were restored for the second time;
• the Bourbons ruled in an autocratic fashion for 15 years (“they have forgotten nothing and learnt nothing”), leading to their ouster in the 1830 revolution;
• Louis-Phillipe became King, ruling for 18 years until he in turn was ousted in the 1848 revolution, leading to the establishment of the Second Republic;
• Napoleon III is elected President, but is limited by the constitution to one term;
• failing to get the constitutional limitation removed, in 1851 he stages a coup d’état and in 1852 proclaims the Second Empire;
• his seizure of power and establishment of the Second Empire are both ratified by national plebiscites, but both votes are in the high nineties, an improbable level of support given the political opposition to him in the National Assembly. The plebiscites are generally considered to have been rigged.
As for the establishment of the Vichy Government under Pétain, he too does not meet the OP’s test, since he was never elected to any position. He was a general. Nor is it really possible to characterise a country as stable when it’s been invaded, its army defeated, and the invading power is in the position to dictate terms.
The OP is not asking how often a stable democracy voted in a dictator, but which was (or were) the most stable democracy to do so.
However, I hope the OP isn’t of the illusion that if Trump is elected he will become a dictator. Because the US is a very stable democracy, and not far down on the continuum where such could happen at this time.
I don’t think any democracy can be described as being “very stable.” It would be trivially easy for any U.S. President to start several constitutional crises, and Trump has already promised to start a few.
We don’t really know what would happen if the President started ignoring Supreme Court rulings while he controlled the House. The most likely answer is: nothing. He would pay a political price at the next election, but one based mostly on what he decided to ignore and not the fact that he ignored it. And once that custom gets broken, it’s damn hard to piece back together.
I actually think the rule of law is pretty fragile. And societies go from relatively stable to relatively unstable very quickly.
But isn’t that usually precipitated by some economic crisis? When people are relatively well off, revolution is not very appealing.
Plus, would you consider a president who ignored some SCOUTS rulings to be a dictator? One can imagine a democracy w/o judicial review.
That’s happened before in America, hasn’t it? “Chief Justice X has made his ruling; let him enforce it.”
There have been populist and nationalist revolutions that do not involve economic crises (though they are rarer).
To the extent there’s a categorical line between democracy and dictatorship, it’s leaving when your elected term is over. All it would take is a disputed election or two, and ignoring whatever Supreme Court decision results. I don’t think it’s all that difficult to imagine happening in America.
All I’m saying is that the line is thinner than most people think. It’s more like the aluminum separating the inside of the spacecraft from the vacuum of space than it is like a brick wall.
If it’s a brick wall, surely Trump will insist that Mexico pay for it.
In Western Democracies? For instance, I wouldn’t consider the revolution in 1979 Iran to be applicable to the US.
True, it ultimately comes down to what people will put up with, and an US presidency could certainly try to act as a dictator to some limited degree, especially if his party controls Congress. But I do agree that “not leaving office when your term is over” is the ultimate test.
How about the revolution known as the American Civil War? Obviously slavery had to do with the economies in the South, but the war was as much about the prospects for economic expansion in the new territories as it was any immediate economic crisis posed by Lincoln’s election.
And I don’t know why Iran is so different. It wasn’t a democracy, that’s true. But I think the main relevance of that factor is that the people believe they have levers for change inside the system. I can easily imagine a day not long from now in which the vast majority of Americans believe that Washington is so broken that electing different politicians won’t change things.
Again though, I’m not saying 2016 US is 1856 US or 1979 Iran. I’m just saying the gulf isn’t as wide as people sometimes assume. The rule of law is fragile.
I started to add “in the modern era”, but thought that was understood. I think the American Civil War was a unique event tied to slavery and something we just had to get out of our system (double entendre intended). It was bound to happen sooner or later-- we just opted for later.
I’m just not seeing any issue that could split the nation like slavery did in the early 19th century unless we were in some sort of economic disaster. Our political divides these days are larger urban vs rural rather than state vs state, so even if we were to assume that the political divide suddenly amped up by a few orders of magnitude, how would you divide up the country? And how would the secessionist fight against the US military? So that leaves revolution, spread around the country, and for that I think we need severe economic problems almost unimaginable today.
I’m not sure how we got onto revolutions. It doesn’t take a revolution for a dictator to emerge. All it takes is a President who comes to power and refuses to give it up.
In the end, what stops that from happening is almost entirely just the fact that we don’t elect people who don’t believe in fundamental American values of democracy and respect for the rule of law. But it is entirely possible that we would elect someone whose idea of democracy is majority-rules, and doesn’t care what any courts have to say, and is capable of securing the support of a slim majority of politically-active and empowered citizens for as long as it takes to aggrandize enough power to alter the nature of elections. I don’t think that idea is especially outlandish, and I don’t think it would require some kind of economic crisis beyond what has been the norm in contemporary capitalism.
I’m not trying to argue that Trump is such a person or that 2016 is somehow primed for that. I’m just saying that 1933 Germany or 1979 Iran isn’t as far from 2016 America as you might think.
All true, but 1933 Germany was in economic chaos (30% unemployment) and 1979 Iran was not a democracy.
Allende was elected in Chile in 1970. He managed to anger the supreme court and the legislature, who claimed he was a dictator. This eventually resulted in the military overthrowing him and establishing a military dictatorship from 73-90. Essentially, a democratically elected leftist president was trying to become a dictator, resulting in a right wing military dictator taking over.
I believe Chile’s democracy ran back to the 19th century.
What about Marcos in the Phillipines?
Venezuela certainly should be mentioned.
https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2016-venezuela-maduro-government/
The problem with Chile is that the shortcircuiting of the process by the military leaves it up to speculation if Allende’s party would have resisted an electoral kickout in '74.
Said right wing military dictator had a little help from Henry Kissenger, IIRC.