# What are the odds of a major conflict (even maybe a WW3) taking place within 5 years **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 6, 2004, 3:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-a-major-conflict-even-maybe-a-ww3-taking-place-within-5-years/243842 "2004-05-06T15:33:11Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 6\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2004, 4:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-a-major-conflict-even-maybe-a-ww3-taking-place-within-5-years/243842/21 "2004-05-07T16:25:22Z")
> [@blowero](#): > > Bush is preventing WWIII, huh? Out of all the theories I’ve heard… that’s one of them. I would say “reducing the likelihood of” rather than preventing. His father is the one I would say prevented a possible WWIII, by putting a stop to Saddam’s dreams of empire. > [@Bosda Di'Chi of Tricor](#): > > \*\* Shodan\*\* --I disagree. > > There is a long-standing regional rivalry between China & India for power, influence & territory in Southern Asia. > > An aliance with Pakistan is not out of the question, nukes or no nukes. > > Especially if there is a change in who runs China, as is likely in the near future. It is certainly possible, but I don’t see much chance of the USA getting involved on the other side. And I would expect that to be a necessary condition of a true world war - the major powers, whoever they are, aligning themselves on opposite sides, as in WWI and II. If Pakistan and India got into a real war, and China intervened, there would always be a real possibility that India would call out the nuclear option if they were in danger of losing. And I think India has the capability to threaten cities in China proper - not just tactical, but strategic strikes. (Somebody please correct me if I am wrong about the range of Indian nuclear warplanes or missiles.) If it goes that way, China has the choice of backing down, or using its own nukes. If they back down, we essentially return to the status quo. If not, the “winners” don’t come out of the war much better off than the losers. As has been mentioned, China was backing the North Koreans during the Korean war, and stopped short of all-out war against the UN/US. And they have much more to lose nowadays. I don’t think the Chinese leaders are that stupid. They think time in on their side. I happen to believe that they are wrong, and that in the medium- to long-term the Maoist version of society will become much more like capitalism, but in either case, the longer a war can be delayed, the better. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![blowero](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/41988e/32.png) [@blowero](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/blowero)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2004, 6:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-a-major-conflict-even-maybe-a-ww3-taking-place-within-5-years/243842/22 "2004-05-07T18:35:10Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > I would say “reducing the likelihood of” rather than preventing. Oh, thanks for clearing that up. In that case, it’s a great theory. :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![blowero](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/41988e/32.png) [@blowero](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/blowero)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2004, 6:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-a-major-conflict-even-maybe-a-ww3-taking-place-within-5-years/243842/23 "2004-05-07T18:48:31Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > His father is the one I would say prevented a possible WWIII, by putting a stop to Saddam’s dreams of empire. :smack: He and Reagan were the ones who CAUSED Saddam to be a threat in the FIRST PLACE, by supporting him in the 80’s. I think we’ve stepped through the looking-glass. ---
**Author:** ![AmericanMaid](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e480ec/32.png) [@AmericanMaid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AmericanMaid)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2004, 7:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-a-major-conflict-even-maybe-a-ww3-taking-place-within-5-years/243842/24 "2004-05-07T19:06:20Z")
> [@treis](#): > > Yes and no. It is true that WWI was precipitated by a regional conflict but it was not the cause for the war. France was not exactly happy about losing Alsace and Lorraine from their earlier war with Germany. Germany saw France as the obstacle to European dominance and felt that their security hinged on a weak France. In short both France and Germany had reasons to want war outside of the regional conflict. Russia got dragged into the conflict becuase they didn’t want to see a more powerful Germany and had an alliance with France. Britian also did not want to see a more powerful Germany and their involvement was sealed when Germany violated Belgian neutrality. **Treis** I was a history major focusing on the world wars and your explanation makes absolutely no sense. Basically, before WWI a lot of countries entered into mutual defense pacts. Britain, France & Russia against Germany & the Austro- Hungarian empire. June 28, 1914 Archduke Francis Ferdinand was assassinated by a Serbian which set off the entire war basically. Germany had been building up its military for years and Kaiser Wilhelm took more aggressive stances with Russia and France. That’s why WWI happened. To address the OP, I believe a major crisis will happen in the next 5 years. Why? Because I read The Fourth Turning. History moves in cycles. Strap in for the ride. ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2004, 10:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-a-major-conflict-even-maybe-a-ww3-taking-place-within-5-years/243842/25 "2004-05-07T22:38:01Z")
> [@China Guy](#): > > His point is precisely that in the modern post-ww2 age of globalization is that no two countries possessing McDonalds have fought a war. Not sure if Pakistan has McD’s or not. McD’s didn’t exist in 1914 or 1939, and the world has changed and globalized since then. Okay, but that’s quite a different statement than your initial characterization - that the simple existence of a middle class was sufficient. I would agree that globalization has had an anti-war sort of effect, in that it aligns the self-interest of nations more closely with each other, making aggressive warfare less appealing. I’m not convinced it’s a complete panacea, though. (Not that I’m trying to suggest you completely agree with the idea either.) ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2004, 4:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-a-major-conflict-even-maybe-a-ww3-taking-place-within-5-years/243842/26 "2004-05-08T16:36:34Z")
China and India might decide to have a go at each other, and with their vast populations can absorb a nuclear strike or three. If America becomes isolationist, China could decide to make a rapid expansion to the Urals. Africa will remain gradually ascend from its state of butchery, but there’ll be many more dead. I don’t see the USA being militarily attacked. Terrorism’s the more likely threat. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-a-major-conflict-even-maybe-a-ww3-taking-place-within-5-years/243842.md?page=1)