I would say “reducing the likelihood of” rather than preventing. His father is the one I would say prevented a possible WWIII, by putting a stop to Saddam’s dreams of empire.
It is certainly possible, but I don’t see much chance of the USA getting involved on the other side. And I would expect that to be a necessary condition of a true world war - the major powers, whoever they are, aligning themselves on opposite sides, as in WWI and II.
If Pakistan and India got into a real war, and China intervened, there would always be a real possibility that India would call out the nuclear option if they were in danger of losing. And I think India has the capability to threaten cities in China proper - not just tactical, but strategic strikes. (Somebody please correct me if I am wrong about the range of Indian nuclear warplanes or missiles.)
If it goes that way, China has the choice of backing down, or using its own nukes. If they back down, we essentially return to the status quo. If not, the “winners” don’t come out of the war much better off than the losers.
As has been mentioned, China was backing the North Koreans during the Korean war, and stopped short of all-out war against the UN/US. And they have much more to lose nowadays.
I don’t think the Chinese leaders are that stupid. They think time in on their side. I happen to believe that they are wrong, and that in the medium- to long-term the Maoist version of society will become much more like capitalism, but in either case, the longer a war can be delayed, the better.
:smack: He and Reagan were the ones who CAUSED Saddam to be a threat in the FIRST PLACE, by supporting him in the 80’s. I think we’ve stepped through the looking-glass.
Treis I was a history major focusing on the world wars and your explanation makes absolutely no sense. Basically, before WWI a lot of countries entered into mutual defense pacts. Britain, France & Russia against Germany & the Austro- Hungarian empire. June 28, 1914 Archduke Francis Ferdinand was assassinated by a Serbian which set off the entire war basically. Germany had been building up its military for years and Kaiser Wilhelm took more aggressive stances with Russia and France. That’s why WWI happened.
To address the OP, I believe a major crisis will happen in the next 5 years. Why? Because I read The Fourth Turning. History moves in cycles. Strap in for the ride.
Okay, but that’s quite a different statement than your initial characterization - that the simple existence of a middle class was sufficient. I would agree that globalization has had an anti-war sort of effect, in that it aligns the self-interest of nations more closely with each other, making aggressive warfare less appealing. I’m not convinced it’s a complete panacea, though. (Not that I’m trying to suggest you completely agree with the idea either.)