# What Are The Odds of Another UK General Election before 2022? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 13, 2017, 11:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-another-uk-general-election-before-2022/788904 "2017-06-13T23:14:54Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2017, 8:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-another-uk-general-election-before-2022/788904/41 "2017-06-19T08:05:00Z")
> [@UDS](#): > > Australia has entered into talks for an Aus/EU trade deal (which of course the UK won’t benefit from, as it’s leaving the EU). Aus/UK talks can’t start until 2019 at the earliest, and of course even when they do start Australia’s first priority will be the EU deal, since the EU is much the larger trade partner, and much the larger market. So the net effect of Brexit seems to be that it will _delay_ an Australian trade deal governing UK trade, not accelerate it. Plus, Australia has indicated that one of things it wants out of a UK trade deal is a relaxation of UK migration law to make immigration easier, which is not the kind of thing the Brexiteers have been cheerleading for. Oh no it’s ok, see, Australians are mostly white, it’s totally fine. ---
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2017, 8:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-another-uk-general-election-before-2022/788904/42 "2017-06-19T08:06:26Z")
News is that this will be a two-year session. Pretty obvious why - to avoid a battle over confidence at the _next_ Queen’s speech. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2017, 9:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-another-uk-general-election-before-2022/788904/43 "2017-06-19T09:05:55Z")
> [@Malden\_Capell](#): > > Balloney. No, those were their honestly held views. > [@](#): > > Votes aren’t some sacred cows that can’t be overruled or ignored or re-done. Boggle. Double boggle. So you don’t believe in democracy? Or is democracy only fine when people agree with you. It’s the EU way to keep voting until the right result is achieved. And that grates with a lot of people. > [@](#): > > Especially when they harm people in the face of evidence. The truth was conspicuously absent from both sides. > [@](#): > > If this were a vote on whether or not climate change existed, it would rightly be canned as insane. But it wasn’t. And that sort of comment is just the sort of hyperbolic stipidity which helped the Leave side ---
**Author:** ![Mikeisskeptical](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/c0e974/32.png) [@Mikeisskeptical](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mikeisskeptical)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2017, 10:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-another-uk-general-election-before-2022/788904/44 "2017-06-19T10:51:06Z")
> [@Malden\_Capell](#): > > Balloney. Votes aren’t some sacred cows that can’t be overruled or ignored or re-done. Especially when they harm people in the face of evidence. Right or wrong, if either of the main parties took that position, they would be wiped out at the next election. ---
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2017, 2:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-another-uk-general-election-before-2022/788904/45 "2017-06-19T14:02:38Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > Boggle. Double boggle. So you don’t believe in democracy? Or is democracy only fine when people agree with you. Rubbish. It’s quite possible to be a democrat but recognise that elections aren’t one-off sacred decisions. The people are fickle and temporary in their decisions - hence why we have regular elections. When the electorate are also seduced by lies and empty promises, it makes it all the more necessary to be said. > [@](#): > > It’s the EU way to keep voting until the right result is achieved. And that grates with a lot of people. Good grief Quartz, you’ve fallen for that conspiracy theory have you? I find it hard to believe you ever voted Remain. > [@](#): > > The truth was conspicuously absent from both sides. Utter tosh. Remain’s failure was in not sexing up facts to appeal in a positive way to people’s aspirations. Leave’s success was making up clever slogans. It’s mind-numbingly obvious in that, one year on, there’s not a single concrete reason for leaving that isn’t vapid hollowness and vague aims. > [@](#): > > But it wasn’t. And that sort of comment is just the sort of hyperbolic stipidity which helped the Leave side Disagree, really. If this had been about climate change, Remain would have had boring facts and Leave would have bleated scaremongering. And promised a return to smoke-stack factories and crisp, snowy winters. ---
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2017, 2:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-another-uk-general-election-before-2022/788904/46 "2017-06-19T14:03:53Z")
> [@Mikeisskeptical](#): > > Right or wrong, if either of the main parties took that position, they would be wiped out at the next election. Well, the present parties look likely to be once Brexit tears a whole into this country’s prosperity. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2017, 2:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-another-uk-general-election-before-2022/788904/47 "2017-06-19T14:18:08Z")
> [@Malden\_Capell](#): > > Rubbish. It’s quite possible to be a democrat but recognise that elections aren’t one-off sacred decisions. Actually, if you believe in democracy, they are. Until the next election or referendum. > [@](#): > > The people are fickle and temporary in their decisions - hence why we have regular elections. When the electorate are also seduced by lies and empty promises, it makes it all the more necessary to be said. The people voted and made their choice. If you do not respect that, if you think you can override that on YOUR whim, then you do not believe in democracy. > [@](#): > > Good grief Quartz, you’ve fallen for that conspiracy theory have you? I find it hard to believe you ever voted Remain. No conspiracy theory. It’s absolutely true. Ask Ireland about the Treaty of Lisbon, for instance, or the Treaty of Nice. > [@](#): > > Utter tosh. Remain’s failure was in not sexing up facts to appeal in a positive way to people’s aspirations. Leave’s success was making up clever slogans. That is not what I found. Did you actually speak about the subject in person to anyone who voted to leave who wasn’t a campaigner? ---
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2017, 2:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-another-uk-general-election-before-2022/788904/48 "2017-06-19T14:31:08Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > Actually, if you believe in democracy, they are. Until the next election or referendum. 1. It was an advisory referendum. 2. Sure, let’s go for another vote. > [@](#): > > The people voted and made their choice. If you do not respect that, if you think you can override that on YOUR whim, then you do not believe in democracy. Bollocks. I recognise a decision was made, but it can be revisited - or even, if the facts do not square with what was promised, annulled. Furthermore, we’re not talking about Leave winning decisively. They got 52%. If they got above 60%, it would be recognised as over for Remain. It’s why other countries have threshholds on votes to prevent stupid decisions being made on a whim. It should have been done last year. > [@](#): > > No conspiracy theory. It’s absolutely true. Ask Ireland about the Treaty of Lisbon, for instance, or the Treaty of Nice. Yeah, I’m quite acquainted with those episodes, and they didn’t happen the way you seem to think they happened. > [@](#): > > That is not what I found. Did you actually speak about the subject in person to anyone who voted to leave who wasn’t a campaigner? I have. None have been able square the circle of what was promised and what’s deliverable. To prevent their heads exploding from the contradiction. they disengage into ‘Oh, I suppose it will be alright.’ All too human, but calamitous. ---
**Author:** ![alphaboi867](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alphaboi867/32/3898_2.png) [@alphaboi867](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/alphaboi867)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2017, 2:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-another-uk-general-election-before-2022/788904/49 "2017-06-19T14:44:57Z")
> [@Malden\_Capell](#): > > News is that this will be a two-year session. Pretty obvious why - to avoid a battle over confidence at the _next_ Queen’s speech. The Opposition doesn’t have to wait until a Queen’s Speech to trigger a confidence vote, did they? I thought the one after Parliament was mandatory, but otherwise the can be called at any time. Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2017, 3:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-another-uk-general-election-before-2022/788904/50 "2017-06-19T15:16:19Z")
> [@alphaboi867](#): > > The Opposition doesn’t have to wait until a Queen’s Speech to trigger a confidence vote, did they? Yes, they don’t have to wait. But the point is that certain matters - like the Budget and the Queen’s Speech - are automatically votes of confidence so a minority government, such as we have now, will want to minimise the number of such votes. ---
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2017, 4:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-another-uk-general-election-before-2022/788904/51 "2017-06-19T16:11:22Z")
> [@alphaboi867](#): > > The Opposition doesn’t have to wait until a Queen’s Speech to trigger a confidence vote, did they? I thought the one after Parliament was mandatory, but otherwise the can be called at any time. > > Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk Indeed, although without the numbers in the bag, triggering one needlessly would only backfire. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 6:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-another-uk-general-election-before-2022/788904/52 "2017-06-20T18:29:17Z")
DUP/Tory deal in doubt. It’s probably just political posturing on the part of the DUP, but it casts further doubt on this government’s ability to stay on for a long time. > **[DUP says it 'can't be taken for granted', putting Tory deal in doubt](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/20/dup-says-it-cant-be-taken-for-granted-putting-tory-deal-in-doubt?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other)** > > Senior DUP sources say talks for a ‘supply and confidence’ deal with Theresa May not proceeding as they would have expected Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 7:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-another-uk-general-election-before-2022/788904/53 "2017-06-20T19:51:59Z")
There is also going to be a legal challenge on the basis that a DUP/Tory agreement will violate the Good Friday agreement: > **[Theresa May faces legal challenge over proposed deal with DUP](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/20/theresa-may-faces-legal-challenge-proposed-deal-dup)** > > Legal team preparing to apply for judicial review of Tory-DUP pact on grounds that it breaches the Good Friday agreement ---
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 10:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-another-uk-general-election-before-2022/788904/54 "2017-06-20T22:11:20Z")
I’m not from the UK, and I don’t understand your politics. But the first idea I had against a new election would be that the Conservatives don’t want to lose even more support. This one backfired heavily, losing their majority. Obviously, other concerns would balance this, and make it more likely it will happen. But does this play any role, at least, in the short term? I know that, in the US, protecting your seat is generally considered a lot more important than making sure you can get things done. ---
**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 10:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-another-uk-general-election-before-2022/788904/55 "2017-06-20T22:36:19Z")
Sure, the Conservatives do not want a new election. The party would lose and concede all power. Individually, the PM is like a battleship with its engine shot through - the party keep her afloat because there is no alternative atm. You can only assume if they lose power and an election is called, the PM will be forced to stand down and someone like David Davies would take over - at least for the duration of the campaign - in the knowledge things couldn’t get any worse. It can’t be easy for Europe to negotiate with a bunch of clowns. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 12:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-another-uk-general-election-before-2022/788904/56 "2017-06-21T00:57:40Z")
Why would a new election go even worse for them? ---
**Author:** ![Lord\_Feldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lord_feldon/32/341_2.png) [@Lord\_Feldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lord_Feldon)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 1:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-another-uk-general-election-before-2022/788904/57 "2017-06-21T01:24:38Z")
> [@PastTense](#): > > There is also going to be a legal challenge on the basis that a DUP/Tory agreement will violate the Good Friday agreement: > [Theresa May faces legal challenge over proposed deal with DUP | Theresa May | The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/20/theresa-may-faces-legal-challenge-proposed-deal-dup) The idea that it violates the agreement seems tendentious to me. The Good Friday Agreement says that Northern Ireland is part of the UK until and unless the people of Northern Ireland vote to change that. How would that not protect the rights of MPs and parties from Northern Ireland to be involved in government if they wished? The idea that Northern Ireland parties must be excluded from governing the UK seems like it would itself be a violation. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 1:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-another-uk-general-election-before-2022/788904/58 "2017-06-21T01:38:45Z")
> [@DigitalC](#): > > Why would a new election go even worse for them? Look at the polls: > **[Jeremy Corbyn is much, much more popular than Theresa May](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-jeremy-corbyn-less-popular-election-2017-campaign-leader-conservative-labour-poll-yougov-latest-a7792006.html)** > > In the space of a week, Theresa May has become almost as unpopular as Jeremy Corbyn once was  And the Tories have gotten more unfavorable reactions as a result of the Grenfell Tower disaster. ---
**Author:** ![UDS](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecae2f/32.png) [@UDS](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UDS)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 1:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-another-uk-general-election-before-2022/788904/59 "2017-06-21T01:45:07Z")
> [@DigitalC](#): > > Why would a new election go even worse for them? Because, following the last election, they trail a miasma of failure and despair wherever they go, and that tends to put voters off. Plus, if they were blamed this time for being responsible for an unnecessary election, think how much more they will be blamed if it is shortly followed by _another_ election. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 9:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-another-uk-general-election-before-2022/788904/60 "2017-06-21T09:00:21Z")
The Good Friday Agreement didn’t stop Brown trying to form an alliance with the DUP. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-another-uk-general-election-before-2022/788904.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-another-uk-general-election-before-2022/788904.md?page=4)