# What Are The Odds of Trump Being Primaried in 2020? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [March 25, 2017, 10:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-being-primaried-in-2020/783039 "2017-03-25T22:29:20Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 7\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2017, 5:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-being-primaried-in-2020/783039/21 "2017-03-29T17:07:42Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > The chances of Trump losing are pretty close to 0. Even Jimmy Carter was renominated in 1980 with relative ease. That was a very long time ago and a very different situation. ---
**Author:** ![amarinth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/3be4f8/32.png) [@amarinth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/amarinth)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2017, 5:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-being-primaried-in-2020/783039/22 "2017-03-29T17:55:50Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > The problem with trying to primary Trump is that Trump - if defeated in the primaries - would have about 3 months of time in the Oval Office to wreak immense havoc on the GOP in retaliation. If he isn’t going to be the Republican nominee for November 2020, but is still sitting president from Aug-Nov 2020, then he could deliberately be as destructive and calamitous as possible in those three months in order to prevent whomever toppled him - be it Cruz, Sasse, Ryan, etc. - from getting the presidency. > > Spite is a powerful motive. The only way he’s successfully primaried is if he still hasn’t figured out how “presidenting” works by then (and that’s a necessary, but not sufficient condition). So, assuming he’s still as grossly incompetent in 2020 as he is today - his attempts to wreak havoc will be on the twitter feud level. Also, he won’t have anyone in congress - the D’s will still not support him, the R’s will be pulling toward their candidate who will be trying to desperately distinguish herself/himself from the current officeholder. That’s not a worry. ---
**Author:** ![Pantastic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3bc359/32.png) [@Pantastic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pantastic)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2017, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-being-primaried-in-2020/783039/23 "2017-03-29T18:23:03Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > The problem with trying to primary Trump is that Trump - if defeated in the primaries - would have about 3 months of time in the Oval Office to wreak immense havoc on the GOP in retaliation. Trump would actually have a lot more than 3 months from a primary defeat to wreak havoc, 3 moths is just the lame duck period between elections and a new president. But people here seem to be assuming that Trump would gracefully concede if he lost the primary, which I think is unlikely if he still wants to be president. One thing that should make the GOP nervous about a primary challenge is that Trump very well might make an independent run if he doesn’t make the Republican ticket. I don’t see the Democrats managing to lose an election with a GOP contender and Trump splitting the ‘red’ vote between them, but it’s hard to overestimate the Democrat’s skill at losing elections. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [March 30, 2017, 12:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-being-primaried-in-2020/783039/24 "2017-03-30T00:27:26Z")
> [@Pantastic](#): > > Trump would actually have a lot more than 3 months from a primary defeat to wreak havoc, 3 moths is just the lame duck period between elections and a new president. Well, I mean the time between the GOP Convention and Election Day. ---
**Author:** ![DinoR](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dinor/32/2821_2.png) [@DinoR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DinoR)\ **Post date:** [March 30, 2017, 1:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-being-primaried-in-2020/783039/25 "2017-03-30T01:17:35Z")
I’d be surprised if Kasich doesn’t try. He is term limited and leaves office in Jan 2019 anyway. It’s not like he’ll be building his resume in government by waiting for a 2024 run. He also is already 64. A 2024 run would have him at 72 on election day. We seem to not make as big of an age issue out of things anymore. He still has to acknowledge the risk of age related health problems that would be an issue cropping up. Oh an he has already [announced a trip to NH next month](http://www.10tv.com/article/kasich-return-new-hampshire-april-promote-book) to promote his political book that’s coming out 25 APR. I’m sure a Saint Anselm College promotional visit is just part of a unique marketing strategy to make money on the book…really… what else could it be? 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2017, 2:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-being-primaried-in-2020/783039/26 "2017-03-31T02:44:12Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > That was a very long time ago and a very different situation. Yes, it was a time where partisan loyalties were less fanatical. There were far more “swing” states in 1976 then in 2012 or 2016. So if anything, Trump getting “primaried” is even less likely in 2020. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Devil\_s\_Grandmother](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/74df32/32.png) [@The\_Devil\_s\_Grandmother](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Devil_s_Grandmother)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2017, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-being-primaried-in-2020/783039/27 "2017-03-31T16:43:01Z")
And yet Trump has gone out of his way this week to piss off and alienate the Tea Party/Freedom Caucus, the very people who made “primaried” into the verb it is today. It’s like he’s _trying_ to get impeached. If I didn’t fear for the future of peaceful American democracy, I’d think it was delicious. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-being-primaried-in-2020/783039.md?page=1)