# What are the odds of Trump winning the Presidency in 2024? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [January 21, 2024, 11:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454 "2024-01-21T23:50:59Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 10
**Author:** ![Steven\_Maven](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steven_maven/32/3272_2.png) [@Steven\_Maven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steven_Maven)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2024, 7:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/183 "2024-02-10T19:58:06Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > Then there is the bizarre claimed 6.8 percent chance of Michelle Obama being POTUS next January. Michelle has stated that she has ZERO interest in holding public office. I am not going to search for a link. ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2024, 8:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/184 "2024-02-10T20:13:20Z")
My prediction is that Biden is **not** going to be President in 2025. Before the 2020 election Biden had mulled the possibility of only serving one term; I realize this is not his current plan but it should be, and if he doesn’t drop out he’s going to lose. Things are just going from bad to worse for him, and the latest signs of mental decline aren’t helping. As horrifying and inexplicable as it is, polling at this point shows Trump with a significant lead. It’s almost impossible to believe American voters could be this stupid, but there it is. Biden needs to step aside and let someone electable run. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2024, 8:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/185 "2024-02-10T20:35:54Z")
> [@wolfpup](#): > > Things are just going from bad to worse for him, and the latest signs of mental decline aren’t helping. As horrifying and inexplicable as it is, polling at this point shows Trump with a significant lead. There are no signs of mental decline in Biden. Maybe you mean trump? And that "significant lead’ you mentiion is withing standard deviation. In other words, the lead is INsignificant. > [@wolfpup](#): > > Biden needs to step aside and let someone electable run. Who? No one polls as well as Biden? This would just hand the election to trump… 'There are no unicorns. Your choice is old fascist trump or Old sane Biden. That’s it. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2024, 8:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/186 "2024-02-10T20:38:22Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > No one polls as well as Biden? Right. For whatever reason (and I don’t think we should make this a hijack) people HATE Harris. Joe may be a bad choice but he’s the best choice for now. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2024, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/187 "2024-02-10T20:40:43Z")
> [@hajario](#): > > For whatever reason (and I don’t think we should make this a hijack) people HATE Harris. No, she polls okay- but not as well as Biden. ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2024, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/188 "2024-02-10T20:54:35Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > that "significant lead’ you mentiion is withing standard deviation. In other words, the lead is INsignificant. I sure hope you’re right, but I’m just saying that right now it doesn’t look good. These results are from the largest poll so far this month, done by Morning Consult between Feb 4-6 with a base of 6,138 registered voters. Some interesting details in these results, too. The individual polls may have a bigger margin of error than Trump’s lead, but over on 538 every single poll shows Trump in the lead except the one limited to Massachusetts. [![](https://i.imgur.com/TyTEHuu.jpeg) ](https://i.imgur.com/TyTEHuu.jpeg) ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2024, 9:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/189 "2024-02-10T21:03:43Z")
If this is accurate, it is interesting that 5% of Biden (2020) voters support Trump (2024), but only about 2% of Trump (2020) go for Biden (2024). It is clear the Dems need to win far more Independent voters than this poll suggests, and somewhat astonishing Trump retains this level of support. Canada has many problems but we have not yet reached much polarity (in practice), disliking most incumbents. ---
**Author:** ![Stratocaster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stratocaster/32/16393_2.png) [@Stratocaster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stratocaster)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2024, 9:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/190 "2024-02-10T21:16:58Z")
I heard (or read? I forget) an economist who said that the strong economic numbers take a while to take root in people’s perceptions, that this tendency explains the disconnect between perception and reality. I suspect the many of the 5% of Biden voters switching to Trump are doing so because of their impression that they’re in economic peril, and will be back in the fold before Election Day if the economy stays strong. ---
**Author:** ![enipla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/54ee81/32.png) [@enipla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/enipla)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2024, 6:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/191 "2024-02-11T18:44:07Z")
> [@Steven\_Maven](#): > > Michelle has stated that she has ZERO interest in holding public office. I am not going to search for a link. Unfortunately, that’s why she should. ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2024, 6:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/192 "2024-02-11T18:45:01Z")
Another question: are the penalties appropriate? ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2024, 10:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/193 "2024-02-11T22:02:43Z")
Biden has drifted in the odds in the last couple of days, now 26%. The market is giving significant weight to Obama at 7% and Newsom at 6%. Trump has shortened very slightly at 46%. Maybe nobody polls as well as Biden against Trump, but does that really give a valid picture of how another Democrat _would_ poll if Biden withdrew and the party unified around someone? ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2024, 10:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/194 "2024-02-11T22:53:28Z")
I believe that many Democrats could beat Trump in the polls. These numbers don’t seem realistic to me, but Biden has some issues and is not yet challenging them strongly. ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2024, 11:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/195 "2024-02-11T23:07:29Z")
Is there nothing here for the Dems to engage with? > **[Favoring Foes Over Friends, Trump Threatens to Upend International Order](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/11/us/politics/trump-nato.html?unlocked_article_code=1.Uk0.M_W1.9--bREwdeUOZ&smid=url-share)** > > Former President Donald J. Trump suggested that he would incite Russia to attack “delinquent” U.S. allies, foreshadowing potentially far-reaching changes in the world order if he wins the White House again. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2024, 12:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/196 "2024-02-12T00:25:41Z")
> [@Dr\_Paprika](#): > > These numbers don’t seem realistic to me, but Biden has some issues and is not yet challenging them strongly. I agree that the political betting markets are inefficient. The significant chance given to Michele Obama is a tell — that’s [nonsense Ted Cruz has been spreading](https://www.huffpost.com/entry/ted-cruz-michelle-obama-joe-bid_n_65129fd1e4b0da61305e3612). However I question the idea that if only Biden had better messaging, he would jump ahead. It may instead be that wavering voters don’t want to hear from either candidate, and that Biden’s best chance is to let Trump defeat himself. P.S. Market Inefficiency does not mean you can make money by gambling! For one thing, political betting markets have high expenses. Also, cognitive biases, affecting betting market behavior, are present in all of us. ---
**Author:** ![TeroSunbear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/terosunbear/32/14748_2.png) [@TeroSunbear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TeroSunbear)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2024, 2:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/197 "2024-02-12T14:44:19Z")
In part Trump is getting what he wants just by campaigning. He does not want the daily or any work as president. It would take him a month or so to pass executive orders and then sit at Mar a Lago to sign a few bills. He would get excited if he passed a lot of revenge measures, that might keep him at the White House. Mar a Lago for most of the winters. He is an old man after all. In any case, he is getting a lot of what he wants just campaigning. He gets to protest all the court cases and he gets fo belittle people. All good stuff for him. He also likes to say the outrageous stuff like scrap NATO. All old stuff for him. It might give someone else the idea to continue Trumpism past this election. There will be a Trump II, guaranteed. No ideea who, as it cannot be someone lacking personality like DeSantis. ---
**Author:** ![Spectre\_of\_Pithecanthropus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spectre_of_pithecanthropus/32/12343_2.png) [@Spectre\_of\_Pithecanthropus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spectre_of_Pithecanthropus)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2024, 6:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/198 "2024-02-14T06:57:02Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > Really all you need to do is look at swing state polling and accept that there is a significant margin of error. But also realize that they tend to be tied together (i.e. an error in Michigan will likely be correlated with an error in Penn). Isn’t there also the problem that poll respondents are still mostly limited limited to that vanishing species _Respondens telephonema_, i.e. People Who Actually Answer The Phone? I don’t think the pollsters have come up with a good alternative yet, and I’m not sure one exists. There’s mass mail, obviously, but recipients are likely to discard that as junk mail. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2024, 1:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/199 "2024-02-14T13:05:15Z")
Two of the best polling outfits nowadays are Times/Siena and Selzer & Co. Selzer: “Our sample include both landlines and cellphone numbers. In recent polls, more than 70% of interviews have been conducted with Iowans on cellphones.” Times/Siena: “Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish on cellular and landline telephones. Over all, 63 percent of respondents were reached on a cellular telephone.” I agree that “people not answering the phone” is a challenge for pollsters (or, even worse, “people who DO answer the phone tend to skew in some direction, politically.”) ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2024, 3:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/200 "2024-02-14T15:15:05Z")
Polls keep telling us to panic, election results continue to show Democrats are running circles around the GOP. ---
**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2024, 3:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/201 "2024-02-14T15:51:09Z")
> [@Spectre\_of\_Pithecanthropus](#): > > > [@Jas09](#): > > > > Really all you need to do is look at swing state polling and accept that there is a significant margin of error. But also realize that they tend to be tied together (i.e. an error in Michigan will likely be correlated with an error in Penn). > > Isn’t there also the problem that poll respondents are still mostly limited limited to that vanishing species _Respondens telephonema_, i.e. People Who Actually Answer The Phone? I don’t think the pollsters have come up with a good alternative yet, and I’m not sure one exists. There’s mass mail, obviously, but recipients are likely to discard that as junk mail. I’ve been saying that for years. I’ve gotten calls from polling companies. I think they were real polling companies. I would love to participate if I knew they were legitimate. If someone calls me out of the blue like that I’m going to assume it’s a scam of some sort. I can’t help but think many people feel like me. So the people taking the polls are those who are willing to tell strangers personal opinions and personal information over the phone. ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2024, 4:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/202 "2024-02-14T16:02:22Z")
Sure, but the fly in the ointment is the electoral college. If it comes down to a handful of states, the tadpoles matter less than those town polls. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454.md?page=9) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454.md?page=11)