# What are the odds of Trump winning the Presidency in 2024? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [January 21, 2024, 11:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454 "2024-01-21T23:50:59Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2024, 1:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/21 "2024-01-22T01:46:05Z")
> [@pulykamell](#): > > I’m prepared for another 4 years of a dumpster fire. I wouldn’t call the potential end of American democracy, the extermination of Ukraine, and the rise of a new Russian imperialism to be a mere dumpster fire. ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2024, 1:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/22 "2024-01-22T01:46:26Z")
> [@pulykamell](#): > > 12.5%, citing Oddschecker That’s a bit weird, that’s clearly not what oddschecker says. It gives the correct market odds, around 45%. Maybe the AI doesn’t understand how to convert the various ways of quoting prices to probabilities. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2024, 1:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/23 "2024-01-22T01:47:30Z")
Still shows my point that let’s not talk about what an AI says. ETA: I didn’t close out the window, so I could see what it’s referencing. It referenced a Newsweek article from December 2020. Probably not the best move for predicting something in 2023 just eleven months out. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2024, 1:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/24 "2024-01-22T01:48:06Z")
ChatGPT also does not have access to data beyond 2020? Whatever year it was. So it won’t. Probably best to sit it out, anyway. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2024, 1:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/25 "2024-01-22T01:50:44Z")
> [@wolfpup](#): > > I wouldn’t call the potential end of American democracy, the extermination of Ukraine, and the rise of a new Russian imperialism to be a mere dumpster fire. Meh. I’m more optimistic than you. We’ll get through it. We got through four years once; we can do it again. And I really do think we are going to be doing it again. ---
**Author:** ![DWMarch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dwmarch/32/1010_2.png) [@DWMarch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DWMarch)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2024, 1:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/26 "2024-01-22T01:51:30Z")
> [@pulykamell](#): > > I’m prepared for another 4 years If Trump wins, he will be President until he dies. He has no intention of respecting the rules and if he is re-elected, he has been forgiven for trying to overthrow the government and given permission in perpetuity to do it again as he sees fit. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2024, 1:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/27 "2024-01-22T01:52:41Z")
No he won’t, but we’ll see. ---
**Author:** ![Texikid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/texikid/32/17036_2.png) [@Texikid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Texikid)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2024, 1:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/28 "2024-01-22T01:52:50Z")
No, it is just outdated. ---
**Author:** ![Dung\_Beetle](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dung_beetle/32/7945_2.png) [@Dung\_Beetle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dung_Beetle)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2024, 2:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/29 "2024-01-22T02:05:17Z")
> [@pulykamell](#): > > I’m prepared for another 4 years of a dumpster fire. That’s nice. Myself, I don’t feel like I could cope with it, and I don’t know what form “not coping” would take. For now, I have to believe it won’t happen. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2024, 2:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/30 "2024-01-22T02:10:24Z")
> [@Dr\_Paprika](#): > > I’m going for gut feelings, not detailed analyses of court cases, unforseeables, a complex litany of tchotchkes. My gut doesn’t give odds. Could be one reason I don’t gamble. On Tuesday November 8, 2016 I thought that the U.S. was, as countries go, lucky – so Trump wouldn’t win. Then my wife and I woke up at 4:00 AM or so and found out otherwise. I still think we’re on the lucky side, so when Trump wins again, he won’t be able to consolidate power the way he wants. It’s worrisome that I’m saying the same as those Davos types (see Riemann’s last post here). Isn’t their conventional wisdom usually wrong? ---
**Author:** ![Baker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/bb73d2/32.png) [@Baker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baker)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2024, 2:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/31 "2024-01-22T02:24:44Z")
As a character in a Heinlein novel said “Vote, always vote. There may not be anyone you want to vote for. but there is surely someone you want to vote against.” ---
**Author:** ![epbrown](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e47774/32.png) [@epbrown](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/epbrown)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2024, 2:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/32 "2024-01-22T02:27:11Z")
This. His base is loud, but it’s also shrinking (which makes the remainder louder). He’s never been popular enough to win the popular vote, and his support is shrinking. Personally, I’d like a candidate born after civil rights were a thing - from either party, and that goes for the Senate as well. We’re mired in out-dated world views. ---
**Author:** ![Sunny\_Daze](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sunny_daze/32/438_2.png) [@Sunny\_Daze](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sunny_Daze)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2024, 2:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/33 "2024-01-22T02:30:54Z")
I tend to agree more with Wolfpup on this one. Trump would be a disaster for everyone other than his family. In terms of odds, I’d say 10%. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2024, 2:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/34 "2024-01-22T02:37:03Z")
> [@Mean\_Mr.Mustard](#): > > As much as it curls my colon, I put it around 70%… > > mmm That was my approximate guess too. I think that most voters have very low information. Many think the economy was better under Trump (Narrator: It was not, by every measure), and many have no clue that he’s under criminal indictment. A HUGE number simply Do. Not. Care. if the country goes into the toilet. A fundamentally stupid, vindictive toddler will be elected president by a mass of stupid, vindictive people, supported by an even larger number of disengaged sleepwalking zombies. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2024, 2:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/35 "2024-01-22T02:45:45Z")
I recall that through most of the spring/summer of 2012 it looked like Romney would defeat Obama in the general election. Clearly that didn’t happen. Winning a second term is tricky. My gut tells me Biden will get reelected but Trump stands a better than 45% chance. So not enough to make me super confident. I expect the electoral map to look very similar to 2020, with maybe a couple of states going to Trump but not enough for him to win. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2024, 2:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/36 "2024-01-22T02:53:08Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > That was my approximate guess too. I think that most voters have very low information. Many think the economy was better under Trump (Narrator: It was not, by every measure) In my anecdotal experience, it seems like every voter I know thinks the economy has been horseshit under Biden–even the ones who like Biden–and was much better under Trump. And, to be honest, yes, it does feel that way. It’s not his fault and I think he’s done a great job with getting inflation under control and whoever was president at this time would be f\*cked, but it’s hard not to feel that the economy has been bad the last four years. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2024, 2:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/37 "2024-01-22T02:56:58Z")
And yet… It has not been worse under Biden by every measure. They are being TOLD it is worse, so they believe it. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2024, 3:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/38 "2024-01-22T03:14:14Z")
Oh, I agree. But I also agree that it feels worse when I go out to the supermarket and see what stuff costs now vs what it cost then. But, then again, my investments overall are better than they were then. And I don’t think everyone is being “told” all that. They are observing and just blaming it on whoever happens to be in charge. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2024, 3:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/39 "2024-01-22T03:28:22Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > I recall that through most of the spring/summer of 2012 it looked like Romney would defeat Obama in the general election. During that six month period, Romney was ahead in polling averages for maybe one day in September, if that: [2011 and 2012 Romney-Obama Polls](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html) The only 2012 month where the polls mostly showed an Obama tie or loss was October. I’m not saying this is predictive for this cycle. And I’m surprised to see how much year-before polling there was for Obama-Romney. Did low information voters even know who Romney was before he was nominated? My gut feeling is that Donald Trump is the most famous person in the world, and we all know how we feel about him. Twelve years ago, Obama was the most famous person in the world, and Romney a relative nobody. ---
**Author:** ![romansperson](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/romansperson/32/17100_2.png) [@romansperson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/romansperson)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2024, 3:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/40 "2024-01-22T03:55:48Z")
I don’t know what the odds are, but IMO any percentage is too high. It _should_ be 0%. He is not suitable for the job in any way and has already proved that. How is it that in a country with 330 million people, we don’t have better candidates than what we’ve got right now? How has this come to pass? Mind you, I think Biden is a decent and good man and has been a good President, but yes, his age worries me, and I’m far from the only one with concerns about that. He’s also stuck with the effects of inflation, which always tend to stick to whoever is in office at the time it happens. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454.md?page=3)