# What are the odds of Trump winning the Presidency in 2024? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [January 21, 2024, 11:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454 "2024-01-21T23:50:59Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 8
**Author:** ![JacobSwan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/a6a055/32.png) [@JacobSwan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JacobSwan)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2024, 11:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/143 "2024-01-26T23:27:36Z")
> [@epbrown](#): > > Personally, I’d like a candidate born after civil rights were a thing Bill Clinton was elected president 31 years ago, and he’s still younger today than the two leading candidates. ---
**Author:** ![OldOlds](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/a3d4f5/32.png) [@OldOlds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OldOlds)\ **Post date:** [January 28, 2024, 2:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/144 "2024-01-28T14:01:10Z")
> [@JacobSwan](#): > > Bill Clinton was elected president 31 years ago, and he’s still younger today than the two leading candidates. We have yet to elect a president younger than a Boomer. In the case of Biden we’ve gone BACK to Silent Generation. And the oldest GenX are 60. WTF? ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [January 28, 2024, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/145 "2024-01-28T17:46:12Z")
Obama is squarely Generation Jones. He is quoted as saying that he belongs in that cohort. > **[Generation Jones](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Generation_Jones)** > > Generation Jones is the social cohort worldwide of the latter half of the baby boomer generation to the first year of Generation X. The term Generation Jones was first coined by the American cultural commentator Jonathan Pontell, who identified the cohort as those born from 1954 to 1965 in the U.S., who were children during Watergate, the oil crisis, and stagflation rather than during the 1950s, but slightly before Gen X. > Unlike "Leading-Edge Boomers", most of Generation Jones did not grow up w... ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [January 28, 2024, 9:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/146 "2024-01-28T21:07:08Z")
> [@hajario](#): > > Obama is squarely Generation Jones. Huh, never heard that- that would include me. But my Dad was a WW@ vet, and They pulled a number for the very last Viet Nam draft, I had a very high # and did not get drafted. So I guess that makes me a BoomJones? 🤪 But I cant remember not having TV. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2024, 12:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/147 "2024-01-29T00:23:17Z")
You’re probably the last Boomer. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Stratocaster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stratocaster/32/16393_2.png) [@Stratocaster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stratocaster)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2024, 1:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/148 "2024-01-29T01:27:16Z")
I never heard of it either, though apparently I’m a member. Does it get me a discount anywhere? ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2024, 6:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/149 "2024-01-29T06:02:25Z")
Yes, buy and wear the following shirt- _I am a senior so where’s my discount dammit!_ 🤪 ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2024, 1:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/150 "2024-02-03T13:48:03Z")
538 collects Biden v. Trump polls here (National, and for individual states). In a few months, these will be the main (but not only) inputs for their forecast model. > **[President: general election Polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/)** > > The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight. ---
**Author:** ![Spectre\_of\_Pithecanthropus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spectre_of_pithecanthropus/32/12343_2.png) [@Spectre\_of\_Pithecanthropus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spectre_of_Pithecanthropus)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2024, 10:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/151 "2024-02-05T10:04:55Z")
A quote from the article @Riemann linked to: > [@Jamie Dimon](#): > > he grew the economy quite well. Trade. Tax reform worked. Trump’s “tax reform” worked for Jamie Dimon? Color me flabbergasted. ---
**Author:** ![TeroSunbear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/terosunbear/32/14748_2.png) [@TeroSunbear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TeroSunbear)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2024, 1:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/152 "2024-02-05T13:57:54Z")
The polls of 1000 people mean nothing. They may show a trend from week to week, but you are just following a news trend. It goes up and down depending on Israel etc. A poll of maybe 5000 has a bit more meaning. There they are tied, as the polls are still only +/- 2%. [2024 General Election: Trump vs. Biden Polls | RealClearPolling](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden) ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2024, 2:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/153 "2024-02-05T14:28:26Z")
> **[How can a poll of only 1,004 Americans represent 260 million people with only...](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/howcan-a-poll-of-only-100/)** ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2024, 2:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/154 "2024-02-05T14:51:37Z")
> [@TeroSunbear](#): > > The polls of 1000 people mean nothing. Agreed. And it’s not just because of sample size. It is also because of the need to average together many polls with differing methodologies. Just remember – a national vote tie means Trump is probably ahead due to the GOP electoral college advantage. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2024, 3:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/155 "2024-02-05T15:51:50Z")
That’s just how polls work. ---
**Author:** ![RitterSport](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rittersport/32/6326_2.png) [@RitterSport](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RitterSport)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2024, 6:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/156 "2024-02-05T18:34:56Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > Just remember – a national vote tie means Trump is probably ahead due to the GOP electoral college advantage. Unless Trump wins much bigger in red state than Biden does in Blue states, of course. But, I think that would imply Trump winning the popular vote, which seems unlikely. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2024, 11:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/157 "2024-02-06T11:15:52Z")
PhillyGuy is right (\*about Biden eventually needing to be ahead, not tied, in an average of national polls, due to party-skewed electoral college realities over the past decade-plus). It’s the main reason I won’t pay too much attention to Biden v. Trump polls until 538 launches its probabilistic model (I think around May or June), because it weighs swing state polls more heavily than national ones. \*He isn’t right about “sample size of 1000” meaning nothing, though – let’s not give TeroSunbear the mistaken impression that 1000 is necessarily a worse sample size than a larger one, for any single poll (read the article I linked to). PhillyGuy IS right that a bunch of (well executed) polls is better than a single (well executed) poll. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2024, 2:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/158 "2024-02-06T14:23:45Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > It’s the main reason I won’t pay too much attention to Biden v. Trump polls until 538 launches its probabilistic model (I think around May or June), because it weighs swing state polls more heavily than national ones. Unfortunately, 538 is a shadow of its former self. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2024, 3:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/159 "2024-02-06T15:38:42Z")
> [@flurb](#): > > Unfortunately, 538 is a shadow of its former self. Yeah, I don’t think I would put too much stock in it’s model this cycle… It’s been sold off and changed leadership a number of times recently. Really all you need to do is look at swing state polling and accept that there is a significant margin of error. But also realize that they tend to be tied together (i.e. an error in Michigan will likely be correlated with an error in Penn). RCP’s averages are OK, but they also have a few ways to fudge the numbers in the GOP’s favor (which has gotten worse over the years). ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2024, 12:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/160 "2024-02-07T12:28:15Z")
While I miss Nate Silver as much as anyone, and the ABC News-conforming website is clunky, I’ve paid close attention to their mathematical mechanics, and there’s no reason to think this year’s probabilistic model won’t be as good as previous ones. Indeed, as you would expect, there will be improvements, starting with their methodology for rating polling outfits (now it emphasizes transparency in methods more than it used to, for example). If there’s some proprietary issues with Nate (i.e., 538 can’t use certain parts of the model for legal reasons), that could be a problem — I’ll report if that turns out to be the case. ---
**Author:** ![griffin1977](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/977dab/32.png) [@griffin1977](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/griffin1977)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2024, 7:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/161 "2024-02-08T19:10:28Z")
> [@griffin1977](#): > > Then there are the trials, things are not looking great there, but there is still 1:10 chance he gets a conviction of a felony (and that conviction of a felony of is enough for him not to be elected, as in I think there is over 1:10 of being convicted of a felony, but a non-zero chance that isn’t enough to ensure he’s not elected). So that takes you to 30% So based of recent events (mainly the vehement rejection of his immunity claim by the DC court or appeals, in a way that makes SCOTUS taking it less likely) I’d say this is pessimistic. I’m saying the chances of him being convicted of a felony, and that being enough to ensure he is not elected, are around 20%. So that gets you to 27% chance of Trump being elected. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2024, 10:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/162 "2024-02-08T22:37:19Z")
Whatever the odds were yesterday, they are lower today due to the Supreme Court and Special Counsel Robert Hur. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454.md?page=7) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454.md?page=9)