# What are the odds of Trump winning the Presidency in 2024? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [January 21, 2024, 11:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454 "2024-01-21T23:50:59Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 9
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2024, 11:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/163 "2024-02-08T23:39:36Z")
Because Hur accused Biden of being demented, and we must take all such accusations solemnly and seriously? ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2024, 11:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/164 "2024-02-08T23:39:41Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > Whatever the odds were yesterday, they are lower today due to the Supreme Court and Special Counsel Robert Hur. FWIW the betting exchange odds have barely moved through the immunity ruling and today at the SC, still around 45%. The weird thing is that Michelle Obama is third favorite at almost 8%. ---
**Author:** ![griffin1977](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/977dab/32.png) [@griffin1977](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/griffin1977)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2024, 11:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/165 "2024-02-08T23:54:05Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > the Supreme Court and There was never any chance of the SCOTUS allowing him to be removed from the ballot IMO. The odds were so close to zero I didn’t think it was worth including in my estimate. > [@PhillyGuy](#): > > Special Counsel Robert Hur Under a month out (like Comeys email revelation in October 2016) that might have moved the needle. But this far our whatever negative effects will forgotten in no time. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2024, 11:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/166 "2024-02-08T23:56:38Z")
> [@griffin1977](#): > > Under a month out (like Comeys email revelation in October 2016) that might have moved to needle. That’s why the term “October Surprise” is a thing and has been for a long time. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2024, 12:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/167 "2024-02-09T00:00:22Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > Because Hur accused Biden of being demented, and we must take all such accusations solemnly and seriously? No, of course many won’t. Maybe even most. But a substantial number will take this bullshit seriously. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2024, 12:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/168 "2024-02-09T00:11:18Z")
Sure, but in that case, so could Trump saying that Biden is a cannibalistic lizard person. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2024, 12:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/169 "2024-02-09T00:20:43Z")
> [@griffin1977](#): > > Under a month out (like Comeys email revelation in October 2016) that might have moved the needle. But this far our whatever negative effects will forgotten in no time. I half agree and half disagree. This far out, so much can happen, good or bad, for either candidate, that the odds of Trump winning cannot be all that far away from even. As for the effect of the nasty bits in the Robert Hur report, or the Supreme Court apparently being unwilling to enforce Section 3, those wouldn’t be seen in polls until much more widely publicized in Trump speeches and advertisements. What about the gambling odds? Shouldn’t they move right away on news? Logically, yes. I admit lack of knowledge concerning how to analyze them and their historical accuracy . ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2024, 12:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/170 "2024-02-09T00:22:19Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > What about the gambling odds? Shouldn’t they move right away on news? Yes, so the fact that they haven’t tells us the market consensus is that we haven’t had any significant news. ---
**Author:** ![Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bosda_di_chi_of_tricor/32/16845_2.png) [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2024, 12:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/171 "2024-02-09T00:36:08Z")
Reporting from Trumpland Tennessee. His heat is cooling, here. Biden is not loved, but the passion for Trump is dwindling. MAGA is no longer the thing to do. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2024, 12:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/172 "2024-02-09T00:36:45Z")
> [@Riemann](#): > > > [@PhillyGuy](#): > > > > What about the gambling odds? Shouldn’t they move right away on news? > > Yes, so the fact that they haven’t tells us the market consensus is that we haven’t had any significant news. Is there a web site that aggregates all, or most of, these betting organizations, so I can trust-but-verify that there has been no move in betting markets today? ---
**Author:** ![colinfred](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colinfred/32/21338_2.png) [@colinfred](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/colinfred)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2024, 12:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/173 "2024-02-09T00:41:49Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > Is there a web site that aggregates all, or most of, these betting organizations, so I can trust-but-verify that there has been no move in betting markets today Just go to Betfair.You don’t need to sign up. ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2024, 12:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/174 "2024-02-09T00:42:09Z")
The UK exchange Betfair, but you can’t view it from a US IP address. It is not an aggregator, it is an exchange with two-way markets, so if there were any major discrepancy with odds available elsewhere for the main players it would be arbitraged out. ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2024, 12:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/175 "2024-02-09T00:46:30Z")
> [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](#): > > MAGA is no longer the thing to do. But what does that mean in the election when Trump is the candidate? Are they so disaffected that they would stay home and risk Biden winning? ---
**Author:** ![griffin1977](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/977dab/32.png) [@griffin1977](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/griffin1977)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2024, 12:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/176 "2024-02-09T00:46:54Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > As for the effect of the nasty bits in the Robert Hur report, or the Supreme Court apparently being unwilling to enforce Section 3, those wouldn’t be seen in polls until much more widely publicized in Trump speeches and advertisements. > > What about the gambling odds? Shouldn’t they move right away on news? Logically, yes. I admit lack of knowledge concerning how to analyze them and their historical accuracy . So there are two different reasons why these would not effect the odds: - The SCOTUS case absolutely would effect the odds _if_ there was a reasonable chance, prior to today, that they would let it stand. But that’s not the case IMO (and in most opinions I’ve read), it’s not going from a 10% chance to 1%, based on what was said in the SCOTUS today, it’s going from a 0.001% chance to a 0.0001% chance. - Comments in the Hur’s report may affect the odds if the election was happening tomorrow. But that’s not how gambling odds work they are giving the odds of Trump winning an election in November and if they don’t change that means the people calculating them don’t think they will change the result, even if they are dominating the news cycle this week(and potentially affect the polls taken during that news cycle) ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2024, 1:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/177 "2024-02-09T01:16:38Z")
Even a ratcheting down of enthusiasm from the last two elections could be significant. Fingers crossed! ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2024, 1:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/178 "2024-02-09T01:40:51Z")
> [@colinfred](#): > > Just go to Betfair.You don’t need to sign up. I’m blocked from betfair as an American, but I found an aggregator web site: > **[Election Betting Odds](https://electionbettingodds.com/)** > > Live betting odds on the 2028 presidential election, and more! Who will win? Biden, Trump, Harris, DeSantis?... Biden supposedly went from a winning probability earlier today of 35.5 percent to, in the past few hours, 33.5 percent (click on Charts and then Last Day). That’s an implausibly big change based on one day of news that, while negative for Biden, mostly could have been anticipated. And that swing is dwarfed by big implausible differences between different betting markets. Then there is the bizarre claimed 6.8 percent chance of Michelle Obama being POTUS next January. Unless this aggregator is way off base, I am unimpressed by the wisdom of the gaming public. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2024, 1:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/179 "2024-02-09T01:45:28Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > That’s an implausibly big change based on one day of news that, while negative for Biden, mostly could have been anticipated. The change could be based on a new poll or two coming out and not the news but I agree that the site is generally useless, at least this far out. ---
**Author:** ![Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bosda_di_chi_of_tricor/32/16845_2.png) [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2024, 2:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/180 "2024-02-09T02:05:16Z")
Some are going to. And say so. ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2024, 4:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/181 "2024-02-09T04:19:15Z")
Perhaps Trump supporters are more likely to bet? These odds are suspect. ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2024, 4:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454/182 "2024-02-09T04:32:35Z")
> [@Dr\_Paprika](#): > > Perhaps Trump supporters are more likely to bet? Most US residents can’t bet. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454.md?page=8) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-winning-the-presidency-in-2024/996454.md?page=10)