Why don’t you lecture LTCB, Merrill or Lehman’s that the cost of short term funding isn’t an issue.
Inverted yield gap fact is that short term funding is more difficult than long term funding. One can extrapolate from there that an inverted yield gap can be a indicator of economic doom. Sheesh, I said that in my previous post, your link says the same thing, and somehow this isn’t the answer you’re looking for. What are you, the only surviving one handed economist?
No shit? Really. Think that might be because the FUCKING RATES ARE HIGHER?
Well, aren’t we the fucking rocket surgeon. :rolleyes:
As I said, THAT is not the point. The POINT is the long term outlook NOT, I repeat NOT the short term. But hey, you haven’t gotten anything else right up until now so clearly everyone should believe you and not me and my DOCUMENTED SOURCES - right dipshit? :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:
I’m not even sure what you’re arguing anymore at this point.
And given all the shit I’ve taken in this thread, I’m not inclined to explain. Let Chinaguy do it so I can tear him a new one - again. 
I don’t think anyone but you would believe you’re winning this argument. You simply come across as a petulant know-it-all who isn’t really an expert.
Good. Because I’m NOT an expert and never claimed to be. So your just projecting there dudley. I just obviously know more than anyone criticizing me in this thread by any measure. 
Let’s try one more time slowly. No one has any idea what you’re postulating at this point. An inverted yield curve means that short term rates are higher than long term rates. Secondly, that this is an indicator BUT ONLY AN INDICATOR that the longer term economy could be at risk. It is far from guaranteed that the economy will tank when there is an inverted yield curve, and it is also not guaranteed that a normal yield curve means the economy is doing fine.
And you’ll be just as tough in real life as you are on these boards
Since you’re too stupid to follow a simple link, I’ll serve it up here for you and let the Cleveland Fed speak for me. See if you can follow along short bus.
Idiot’s guide version - yes, recession isn’t guaranteed, but you’d damn well be ready to cover your ass.
Having encountered him on other occasions, and witnessing the idiocy displayed here, I wonder if deltasigma was Fooled by W, too.
If that’s a user id, no idea who that is or who you are either. I’m therefore happy to say that I’ve never encountered YOUR idiocy and I hope that remains the case.
In the interest of summarizing for the lurkers, Deltasigma claimed that the Senate isn’t passing enough bills. The last time the US bond credit rating fell it was due to a criticism of the government not doing enough and cite an article whose claims are that S&P downgraded it due to the debt-to-gdp ratio and the lack of legislation addressing the debt ceiling.
Antibob and Folace more or less addressed everything in posts 7 and 9 and then Martin Hyde brought it home with posts 17, 18, and 19 regarding the effects of a credit lowering. Then it went to shit. Reactionary shit.
It was a strongly opinionated OP and those never go well on the internet. Moderation is key and there will always be 2 sides to an argument. Getting stuck in extremism one way or another is a good way to come out looking insane.
Personally, my only quibbles with the “no big deal” arguers would be:
Defaulting is a low bar to set. If the ratings do drop significantly, consumer panic could rival the “safest thing around” factor.
Ideally, yes. However some of us aren’t as well informed as we should be to be making financial decisions so it’s nice to have not one but 3 agencies to do our research for us. And by some, I mean all.
As I’ve pointed out before, I restated the issue in post 29. It’s not JUST about the credit rating. That is a symptom, NOT the disease. The disease is a broken govt that has already threatened economic growth with the sequestration and continues to do so by failing to compromise.
Just to point out the obvious which appears to be revelation to most of my critics, but US paper is a dollar equivalent. That means that if the value of the dollar suffers, so does the value of our debt. And what happens when the value of notes and bonds go down? Well duh. I’ll let my critics answer that gimme question.
Yes, this is true. Thing is, the only thing you’ve done in this thread is attack the guy personally instead of proving information. Even proving that the guy has been wrong before proves jack shit.
And, seeing as you continue to think that homosexuality is a mental disorder, no one on this board should pay attention to anything you say. See how thzt fucking feels?
And what’s really sad is that panache so easily dealt with all of this in two sentences. “However some of us aren’t as well informed as we should be to be making financial decisions so it’s nice to have not one but 3 agencies to do our research for us. And by some, I mean all.” By claiming it doesn’t matter at all, you discredit yourself, and delta was right to call you on that.
What’s laughable is watching all you guys assume you are winning. Maybe amongst people who know the subject. Not amongst someone who is looking at who backed up their information best or who knows that absolutist statements are almost always wrong.
And, anyways, the thread clearly went to shit because you had a problem with the original poster. It’s the same reason I don’t make too many threads in the Pit. I can’t count on people actually discussing the subject instead of using it as a lazy man’s pitting of me. (Lazy because, if they have that much a problem with me, why the hell didn’t they start a pit thread back when I actually said what they are upset about?)
OMG. Thanks man. I figured MH to at least be ‘misinformed’ shall we say, but that takes it to whole different level.
And you’re right about people not generally being well informed on financial matters, but then there’s a good reason for that - even the professionals so often get it wrong. Just look at the 2008 recession. Sure lots of people profited from that but many more lost their shirts.
I could have been one of them if I’d panicked but I didn’t. I rode the market crash right to the bottom and then all the way out again. If I sold though, I might be a greeter at Walmart today. OK, probably not, but I’d be hurting.
The point is that even if you are well informed, economics is still more art than science and people have little appreciation of just what a true master Bernanke has been. They called Greenspan the maestro or some shit like that but compared to what Uncle Ben has done, he would even deserve to set foot in his Dojo.
Obviously you can’t read. Maybe because I didn’t make it a hyperlink it was too difficult for you, but basically the entire and quick way I dismissed deltasigma’s argument was to point out that if you look at the TreasuryDirect.gov auction history you will note that interest rate paid on our debts, as set at auction, continued to fall after the downgrade. We could have gone back and forth with more citations, but since deltasigma declined to actually engage or respond to any of the cited criticisms to that point I had no real onus to say more on that front.
A law school and business school grad who thinks he’s smarter than other people who actually know what they’re talking about.
Wow, I never thought I’d see the day. Lawyers tend to be so circumspect, and MBAs have such a penchant towards modesty in their own capabilities. I guess there is an exception to every rule.
+1. You can tell most lawyers on SDMB from their posting style. Condescending, verily. However, the preciseness of language as per their training shines through almost too clearly. They say it without saying it. Cite: Bricker (take it in the sprit with which it was intended!)
And MBA’s? They’re almost embarrassed by how little they actually learned in b-school. Scratch the almost. I’ve heard from many different friends (Fuqua, Wharton, Owen, Darden) that getting into business school is the hardest part.
Oh dear, the little snot nose children of the SDMB still have their panties in twist but still haven’t learned to use google I either see.
As for Martin Hyde’s comment about Treasury rate’s dropping, neither he nor anyone else obviously go the hint I dropped here I guess.
So what does happen since all the ‘finance guys’ (LOL) here have no fucking clue?
Even my cat knows that bond rates vary inversely with price. But beyond that, because bonds are dollar equivalents and the interest is PAID in dollars, if the value of the dollar declines because of our govt’s incompetence, then more dollars have to be paid to make up for that and the only way that happens is with a higher interest rate.
Oh yes, everyone else here is CLEARLY smarter than I am. Jesus fucking Christ you people are morons. :rolleyes:
Zero. Just like last time.
I see we have another late comer to the party who hasn’t bothered to read the whole thread.
Well, it’s not like I can really blame you of course, but it IS annoying. :rolleyes: