# What are the odds that the U.S. will default? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 29, 2013, 4:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903 "2013-09-29T04:24:15Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 10
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 6:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/181 "2013-10-08T18:18:35Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > The incentive is that the propaganda machine for and the funding for the Republicans will still be there so any rejection from the Democrats to make deals after the budget passes will be (rightfully I must say) used as effective talking points in the next elections. The propaganda machine is (slowly) making progress in (rightly) painting Democrats as the ones refusing to negotiate right now. Democrats make it easier by publicly stating they won’t negotiate. As we see in recent CNN poll, the difference between those that think Republicans are to blame and those who think Democrats are to blame is fairly small and getting smaller. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 6:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/182 "2013-10-08T18:20:24Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > The propaganda machine is (slowly) making progress in (rightly) painting Democrats as the ones refusing to negotiate right now. Democrats make it easier by publicly stating they won’t negotiate. As we see in recent CNN poll, the difference between those that think Republicans are to blame and those who think Democrats are to blame is fairly small and getting smaller. The polls have been going in the other way- more and more folks see that Republicans are to blame, not Obama and the Democrats. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/183 "2013-10-08T18:22:24Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > By “Democrat demands” I mean the demand to have “clean” CR and “clean” debt ceiling bill. They even have the audacity to claim that attaching things to debt ceiling bills is unprecedented - when half of debt ceiling bills in the past had things attached to them. Yes–that is a demand about tactic, not policy. That’s not something that’s going to be negotiated over. That tactic is one that can be used by either side, and the side that cares least about the country’s well-being is the side that wins with that tactic. We can imagine many other tactics that could be used to solve disagreements: arm-wrestling, dueling with pistols, coin-flips, the Thunderdome. If someone suggests that disputes be solved in the Thunderdome, the other side is perfectly justified in flat-out refusing that tactic, refusing even to consider a compromise like using padded weaponry, or allowing five people to enter and three to leave, or whatever. Similarly, this game of chicken that Republicans are proposing as a tactic for determining federal policy is one that can be rejected out of hand. It’s not a negotiation over policy, it’s a tactic for determining that policy. And it’s a terrible one. I seriously wonder whether you’ve negotiated anything in your life. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/184 "2013-10-08T18:22:50Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > The polls have been going in the other way- more and more folks see that Republicans are to blame, not Obama and the Democrats. Factually wrong. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/185 "2013-10-08T18:24:23Z")
> [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](#): > > Yes–that is a demand about tactic, not policy. That’s not something that’s going to be negotiated over. That tactic is one that can be used by either side, and the side that cares least about the country’s well-being is the side that wins with that tactic. Ever heard of “[Judgement of Solomon](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judgment_of_Solomon)”? It’s exactly the other way around. ---
**Author:** ![Oldeb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/ea666f/32.png) [@Oldeb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oldeb)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/186 "2013-10-08T18:36:57Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > The polls have been going in the other way- more and more folks see that Republicans are to blame, not Obama and the Democrats. > [@Terr](#): > > Factually wrong. [Funny, the real world seems to agree with **iiandyiiii**.](http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2013/10/republicans-lose-ground-vs-obama-in-the-shutdown-blame-game/) > [@ABC](#): > > Seventy percent in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll disapprove of how the Republicans in Congress are handling the budget negotiations, up 7 percentage points from a week ago. > … > Most of the changes for both parties come from previously undecided Americans coming to a negative opinion of their work. But a challenge for the Republicans in particular is that their disapproval ratings for handling the situation have increased numerically across the partisan board, among Republicans (+7 points), independents (+5) and Democrats (+9) alike. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 6:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/187 "2013-10-08T18:39:32Z")
> [@Oldeb](#): > > [Funny, the real world seems to agree with **iiandyiiii**.](http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2013/10/republicans-lose-ground-vs-obama-in-the-shutdown-blame-game/) Disapproval of Republicans is up. So is disapproval of Democrats. How does that “agree with **iiandyiiii** ”? Note the careful title wording for the article you’re citing. “Republicans Lose Ground vs. Obama in the Shutdown Blame Game”. Not “Republicans Lose Ground vs. Democrats in the Shutdown Blame Game”. Did you wonder why that was? ---
**Author:** ![Oldeb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/ea666f/32.png) [@Oldeb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oldeb)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/188 "2013-10-08T18:51:50Z")
No, I didn’t wonder. Because I can read. First of all, you can’t possibly be trying to argue that Obama is not the current face of the Democratic party. I can’t believe anyone would honestly hold that position. But even if you’re trying to separate Congressional Democrats from **iianydyiii** ’s “Obama and the Democrats”, you’d still be wrong. Here’s the [pdf](http://www.langerresearch.com/uploads/1144a29TheShutdown.pdf) with full results of the poll. The data’s in the article too, but maybe you missed it. There was a 7% gap between the blame being placed on the GOP vs the Dems in the House. Now it’s 9% and growing. So the reality is the opposite of what you said. > [@Terr](#): > > the difference between those that think Republicans are to blame and those who think Democrats are to blame is fairly small and getting smaller. The difference between those who think the GOP is to blame and those who think the Dems are to blame is _growing_. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 6:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/189 "2013-10-08T18:54:42Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > Disapproval of Republicans is up. So is disapproval of Democrats. How does that “agree with **iiandyiiii** ”? > > Note the careful title wording for the article you’re citing. “Republicans Lose Ground vs. Obama in the Shutdown Blame Game”. Not “Republicans Lose Ground vs. Democrats in the Shutdown Blame Game”. Did you wonder why that was? Because those are the two major parties in this crisis. But it doesn’t matter- the Republicans have lost ground against both Obama and the Democrats. Obama’s “blame deficit” has shrunk from 9 to 6 points… the Democrats “blame deficit” has expanded slightly, from 22 to 26 points, and the Republicans “blame deficit” has increased the most- from 37 to 46 points. So not only do more people blame the Republicans than Obama or the Democrats, but the gap is growing over time. I was completely right and you were totally wrong. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 6:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/190 "2013-10-08T18:58:00Z")
> [@Oldeb](#): > > The difference between those who think the GOP is to blame and those who think the Dems are to blame is _growing_. According to CNN/ORC International polls, it is shrinking. A [week ago](http://www.cnn.com/2013/09/30/politics/cnn-poll-shutdown-blame/index.html), 69% blamed Republicans, while 58% blamed Democrats. A week later, the numbers [shifted to](http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/10/07/cnn-shutdown-poll-plenty-of-blame-to-go-around/) 63% vs 57%. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 7:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/191 "2013-10-08T19:00:59Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > Ever heard of “[Judgement of Solomon](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judgment_of_Solomon)”? It’s exactly the other way around. Of course I have. In that story, the person who sets up the “kill the [beloved entity] in order to win” is the disinterested judge, not one of the combatants, so the analogy falls apart–which is why I didn’t use it when I first thought of it. HOWEVER, in that story, the party that is most willing to play along with that scenario is the loser, the fake, the impostor, the person whom our judgment goes against. Which is, by analogy, the Republican Party, who have tried to use this tactic in this case. How on earth you think that supports your case is beyond me. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 7:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/192 "2013-10-08T19:05:46Z")
> [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](#): > > How on earth you think that supports your case is beyond me. If someone says “give me $5 or the puppy gets it” and you say “I refuse to negotiate, kill the puppy”, then you don’t care much about the puppy, do you? ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 7:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/193 "2013-10-08T19:07:08Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > None of those arguments succeed even under the slightest bit of examination. Besides which, 3 is just double-talk nonsense. How would you counter them? 1. If spending - revenue \> deficit allowed by the debt ceiling, then how can you possibly read into it a way that the 3 laws don’t conflict and don’t involve a permanent shutdown? Tacit in this is that the Federal government has an obligation to perform the duties proscribed in the Constitution and thus a true 100% shutdown is unconstitutional and that preventing that by running essential services on credit is in effect nullifying the debt ceiling. 2. Everyone seems to think that this is the strongest legal argument but I’m not sure why running out of money violates the 14th Amendment. I think it has something to do with money already committed in the budget is a debt and must be paid by issuing debt (and already we have a problem with equivocation) and they can’t issue IOU’s unless of course they issue IOU’s. 3. If the President is obligated to pay the budget but can’t borrow the money (Article I, Section 8) then Congress is in effect interfering in the role of the President. In other words, if Congress makes the obligation and the laws to enforce the obligation, although you could argue that using the Impoundment Law of 1974 and _Train v. City of New York_ may be a stretch, they are obligating the President into breaking the law by not spending the money already appropriated. ---
**Author:** ![Oldeb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/ea666f/32.png) [@Oldeb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oldeb)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 7:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/194 "2013-10-08T19:09:12Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > According to CNN/ORC International polls, it is shrinking. A [week ago](http://www.cnn.com/2013/09/30/politics/cnn-poll-shutdown-blame/index.html), 69% blamed Republicans, while 58% blamed Democrats. A week later, the numbers [shifted to](http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/10/07/cnn-shutdown-poll-plenty-of-blame-to-go-around/) 63% vs 57%. Please read your own cites and try to match the numbers you quote with the questions asked. From the 9/30 article > [@cnn](#): > > According to the poll, which was conducted Friday through Sunday, 46% say they would blame congressional Republicans for a government shutdown From the 10/7 article: > [@cnn](#): > > According to the poll, 63% of those questioned say they are angry at the Republicans for the way they have handled the shutdown. Your cite is worse for your position than the one I provided. :smack: By the way, here’s where you got the 69% number in the 9/30 article: > [@cnn](#): > > According to the poll, 58% say congressional Democrats are acting like spoiled children, with that number rising to 69% for the GOP in Congress. Only one in four say congressional Republicans are acting like responsible adults. ---
**Author:** ![Oldeb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/ea666f/32.png) [@Oldeb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oldeb)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/195 "2013-10-08T19:12:46Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > If someone says “give me $5 or the puppy gets it” and you say “I refuse to negotiate, kill the puppy”, then you don’t care much about the puppy, do you? When you compare your position to killing puppies as a positive, maybe it’s time to rethink your outlook? ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/196 "2013-10-08T19:13:58Z")
> [@Oldeb](#): > > Your cite is worse for your position than the one I provided. :smack: Nope. It’s not the absolute #s that are important. It is the relative ones - R vs D. > [@](#): > > By the way, here’s where you got the 69% number in the 9/30 article: And? ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 7:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/197 "2013-10-08T19:15:30Z")
> [@Oldeb](#): > > When you compare your position to killing puppies as a positive, maybe it’s time to rethink your outlook? I am putting it in Democrat terms - since that is how they have been framing it. ---
**Author:** ![Oldeb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/ea666f/32.png) [@Oldeb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oldeb)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 7:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/198 "2013-10-08T19:18:29Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > Nope. It’s not the absolute #s that are important. It is the relative ones - R vs D. > And? And they were two separate questions. You can’t just pull answers from one question to fit another. The questions are at the bottom of the 9/30 article. There were four of them. You’re pulling the answer from question #3 and pretending it was the answer to question #1. That’s not how answers work. That’s not how anything works. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 7:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/199 "2013-10-08T19:22:17Z")
> [@Oldeb](#): > > And they were two separate questions. You can’t just pull answers from one question to fit another. That’s the only question comparing Republicans to Democrats. And yes, I presumed that thinking that Congressmen are acting like spoiled children is blaming them. ---
**Author:** ![Zakalwe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zakalwe/32/270_2.png) [@Zakalwe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zakalwe)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 7:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/200 "2013-10-08T19:29:42Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > If someone says “give me $5 or the puppy gets it” and you say “I refuse to negotiate, kill the puppy”, then you don’t care much about the puppy, do you? So what you’re saying is that if terrorists take hostages and demand that we release the Gitmo prisoners or they’ll kill the hostages, that we should do what they say or we must not care about the prisoners? Are you listening to yourself? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903.md?page=9) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903.md?page=11)