# What are the odds that the U.S. will default? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 29, 2013, 4:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903 "2013-09-29T04:24:15Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 11
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/201 "2013-10-08T19:30:55Z")
> [@Zakalwe](#): > > So what you’re saying No, that is not what I am saying. I am saying what I am saying - that is what I posted. ---
**Author:** ![Oldeb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/ea666f/32.png) [@Oldeb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oldeb)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 7:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/202 "2013-10-08T19:36:01Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > That’s the only question comparing Republicans to Democrats. And yes, I presumed that thinking that Congressmen are acting like spoiled children is blaming them. I…I have no idea how to further explain it without quoting most of the article. CNN was not saying what you believe they were saying. They even provided the questions their poll asked in the article you cited. You are simply wrong. You are not matching the questions with the answers. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 7:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/203 "2013-10-08T19:37:50Z")
> [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > How would you counter them? > > 1. If spending - revenue \> deficit allowed by the debt ceiling, then how can you possibly read into it a way that the 3 laws don’t conflict and don’t involve a permanent shutdown? Tacit in this is that the Federal government has an obligation to perform the duties proscribed in the Constitution and thus a true 100% shutdown is unconstitutional and that preventing that by running essential services on credit is in effect nullifying the debt ceiling. > > 2. Everyone seems to think that this is the strongest legal argument but I’m not sure why running out of money violates the 14th Amendment. I think it has something to do with money already committed in the budget is a debt and must be paid by issuing debt (and already we have a problem with equivocation) and they can’t issue IOU’s unless of course they issue IOU’s. > > 3. If the President is obligated to pay the budget but can’t borrow the money (Article I, Section 8) then Congress is in effect interfering in the role of the President. In other words, if Congress makes the obligation and the laws to enforce the obligation, although you could argue that using the Impoundment Law of 1974 and _Train v. City of New York_ may be a stretch, they are obligating the President into breaking the law by not spending the money already appropriated. I’ve grown tired of retyping the reasons why that’s all nonsense, so if I could beg your indulgence and allow me to link to some of my previous posts of outstanding insight and stirring prose: [Link to a concise summary,](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=13974311&postcount=16) [see my several posts here,](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=16738432) [here’s a more in-depth response,](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=13987165&postcount=13) [and one with even more detail.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=13989961&postcount=31) I’m happy to engage further, I’ve just grown tired of typing the same long posts over and over. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 7:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/204 "2013-10-08T19:46:35Z")
> [@Oldeb](#): > > I…I have no idea how to further explain it without quoting most of the article. CNN was not saying what you believe they were saying. They even provided the questions their poll asked in the article you cited. You are simply wrong. You are not matching the questions with the answers. 69% thought Republicans acted like spoiled children. 58% thought Democrats did. That’s an 11% difference. A week later, 63% blamed Republicans. 57% blamed Democrats. That’s 6% difference. I have no idea how to further explain this to you. ---
**Author:** ![Oldeb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/ea666f/32.png) [@Oldeb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oldeb)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 8:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/205 "2013-10-08T20:02:51Z")
Do you literally not see the four question asked at the bottom of the article? Do you literally not see the difference in question #1 vs questions #2 - #4? If you’re asking why some people seemed to think the Republicans were not responsible for acting like spoiled children I can’t tell you. Yet that’s what the CNN article you cited says. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/206 "2013-10-08T20:08:05Z")
> [@Oldeb](#): > > Do you literally not see the four question asked at the bottom of the article? Bottom of what article? I looked at the poll, itself. The only two questions that contrasted Republicans and Democrats were the “who do you think is acting like spoiled children” question. ---
**Author:** ![Oldeb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/ea666f/32.png) [@Oldeb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oldeb)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/207 "2013-10-08T20:18:38Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > Bottom of what article? What is this I don’t even > [@Terr](#): > > According to CNN/ORC International polls, it is shrinking. A [week ago](http://www.cnn.com/2013/09/30/politics/cnn-poll-shutdown-blame/index.html), 69% blamed Republicans, while 58% blamed Democrats. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 8:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/208 "2013-10-08T20:22:31Z")
**Terr** has failed here and is now attempting obfuscation. When the same questions are compared in polls from a week ago and today, more people today blame Republicans, and the gap between blaming Republicans and blaming Democrats (or Obama) is growing. Multiple polls show this. I have seen zero polls (please, show me some if I’m incorrect) that, when comparing the same questions from about a week ago and today, show any movement in favor of the Republicans. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 8:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/209 "2013-10-08T20:26:23Z")
**Terr** is also ignoring the fact that polls are showing that Obama’s approval rate is increasing and the Republican Party’s approval is getting worse. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 8:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/210 "2013-10-08T20:29:18Z")
> [@Oldeb](#): > > What is this I don’t even Let me put it in words of few syllables. [CNN poll from 9/30](http://www.cnn.com/2013/09/30/politics/cnn-poll-shutdown-blame/index.html): 58% say congressional Democrats are acting like spoiled children 69% say congressional Republicans are acting like spoiled children [CNN poll from 10/7](http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/10/07/cnn-shutdown-poll-plenty-of-blame-to-go-around/) 63% say they are angry at the Republicans for the way they have handled the shutdown. 57% say they are angry at the Democrats for the way they have handled the shutdown. the difference went from 11% to 6%. Hope this makes it clearer. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 8:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/211 "2013-10-08T20:31:53Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > Let me put it in words of few syllables. > > [CNN poll from 9/30](http://www.cnn.com/2013/09/30/politics/cnn-poll-shutdown-blame/index.html): > > 58% say congressional Democrats are acting like spoiled children > 69% say congressional Republicans are acting like spoiled children > > [CNN poll from 10/7](http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/10/07/cnn-shutdown-poll-plenty-of-blame-to-go-around/) > > 63% say they are angry at the Republicans for the way they have handled the shutdown. > 57% say they are angry at the Democrats for the way they have handled the shutdown. > > the difference went from 11% to 6%. > > Hope this makes it clearer. Those are two different differences. It’s not the same question- so the difference didn’t change. Two different numbers. All the polls (that I know of) that actually compare the same questions at different times show “blame” movement to the benefit of the Democrats and Obama. It’s not so bad to be wrong sometimes- we all are. You’re just wrong here. No big deal. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 8:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/212 "2013-10-08T20:34:13Z")
As well, it should be remembered that a week or so ago, the shut down was theory. Now, it is fact. And in its very first days, it was a barely perceptible fact, few people were affected because the appropriated money had yet to run out. If they don’t realize the consequences, they don’t realize the importance. If they don’t realize the importance, they are not inclined to closely examine the question. Lately, more of them are doing so, and arriving at the virtually inevitable conclusion. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 8:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/213 "2013-10-08T20:42:24Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > Let me put it in words of few syllables. > > [CNN poll from 9/30](http://www.cnn.com/2013/09/30/politics/cnn-poll-shutdown-blame/index.html): > > 58% say congressional Democrats are acting like spoiled children > 69% say congressional Republicans are acting like spoiled children and 49% say Obama is acting like “a responsible adult” > [@](#): > > [CNN poll from 10/7](http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/10/07/cnn-shutdown-poll-plenty-of-blame-to-go-around/) > > 63% say they are angry at the Republicans for the way they have handled the shutdown. > 57% say they are angry at the Democrats for the way they have handled the shutdown. and 53% are angry at Obama. Any way **Terr** looks at it, this is great news for the Cruz campaign! ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 8:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/214 "2013-10-08T20:58:59Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > If someone says “give me $5 or the puppy gets it” and you say “I refuse to negotiate, kill the puppy”, then you don’t care much about the puppy, do you? First, I want to make sure everyone sees that the best thing you can say about Republicans right now is to compare them to puppy-killers. Anyway, excellent example: if I refuse to negotiate, it means I care a great deal about puppies. If I refuse to give them $5, then the puppy may or may not get it, but after that, the jerk learns that threats don’t work, and he won’t threaten any more puppies. If I give him the $5, then he learns that threatening to kill puppies works, and he’s probably going to keep on doing it. There’s a problem, though. Nobody has said, “I refuse to negotiate, kill the puppy.” What they’ve said is, “I refuse to negotiate, stop being a horrible person and set down the knife.” ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 10:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/215 "2013-10-08T22:03:02Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > and 49% say Obama is acting like “a responsible adult” > and 53% are angry at Obama. Would be great news for you if the upcoming elections were Congressional Republicans against Obama. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 10:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/216 "2013-10-08T22:23:35Z")
nm ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 11:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/217 "2013-10-08T23:17:40Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > Would be great news for you if the upcoming elections were Congressional Republicans against Obama. Honestly, I’m happy framing it the way you frame it–viz., puppy-killing extortionists versus people who don’t think puppy-killing extortionism is the way to go. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2013, 12:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/218 "2013-10-09T00:18:53Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > Would be great news for you if the upcoming elections were Congressional Republicans against Obama. The key races are going to be Republicans incumbents who supported the government shutdown against Dems who were not in DC during this debacle. I’m not saying the Dems have a lock to defeat the GOP, but voters at going to make their decision on candidates, not party affiliation. And right now, there’s quite a few more Republican candidates with an albatross around their neck. ---
**Author:** ![drewtwo99](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d07c76/32.png) [@drewtwo99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drewtwo99)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2013, 2:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/219 "2013-10-09T02:10:04Z")
> [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](#): > > Honestly, I’m happy framing it the way you frame it–viz., puppy-killing extortionists versus people who don’t think puppy-killing extortionism is the way to go. I think this is offensive to all the puppy killing extortionists out there. They don’t want to be compared to republicans. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2013, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/220 "2013-10-09T18:11:04Z")
Good news, everyone! Several of the smartest Republican evah! have discovered that a failure to increase the debt ceiling is not big deal! Yay! You can find substantiating quotes here: [http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/1...al?detail=hide](http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/1...al?detail=hide) Warning! Daily Kos contains corrosive facts and disagreeable truths. Tighty Righties are advised to proceed with shields up! > [@](#): > > “It really is irresponsible of the president to try to scare the markets,” said Senator Rand Paul, Republican of Kentucky. “If you don’t raise your debt ceiling, all you’re saying is, ‘We’re going to be balancing our budget.’ So if you put it in those terms, all these scary terms of, ‘Oh my goodness, the world’s going to end’ — if we balance the budget, the world’s going to end? Why don’t we spend what comes in?” > > “If you propose it that way,” he said of not raising the debt limit, “the American public will say that sounds like a pretty reasonable idea.” Why, yes, put it that way! And if you take a sufficient dose of cyanide, you can prevent premature aging! Or any aging at all, for that matter! The American public will say that’s a pretty reasonable idea! From Rand Paul, the intellectual powerhouse of the Republican Party! “You just keep thinkin’, Butch. That’s what you’re good at.” [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903.md?page=10) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903.md?page=12)