# What are the odds that the U.S. will default? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 29, 2013, 4:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903 "2013-09-29T04:24:15Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 11\ **Page:** 12
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2013, 6:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/221 "2013-10-09T18:13:37Z")
> **[\- The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics-live/liveblog/live-updates-the-shutdown-4/?hpid=z2#c1e3ada3-dc00-41d8-92cb-327c5c814d82)** Moody’s agrees. ---
**Author:** ![Inigo\_Montoya](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/inigo_montoya/32/124_2.png) [@Inigo\_Montoya](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Inigo_Montoya)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2013, 6:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/222 "2013-10-09T18:47:01Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > …There are enough Republicans and surely enough Democrats willing to tell the Insane Clown Posse to stuff it and pass a “clean bill”… I must protest. Ever has ICP been reason voiced by hyperbole. The term for hyperbole voiced by reason is “Libertarian.” 🙂 Say, I got a question. We print US bucks, we borrow $1zillion in goods/services/trade deals/whatever from China, and express that debt in terms of US bucks. As mentioned upthread, we could if we wanted, print off $1zillion and hand it over to China with the declaration of, “Great! Now we’re square!” Now, we DON’T do this because the sudden abundance of US bucks in the world devalues them greatly internationally, and presumably domestically, and we see big inflation (post WWI Germany). But what if we printed off $1 zillion, squared our international debts, technically, and then forsook the US buck and minted a new US Currency (The Quatloo) and used that as our currency henceforth? Again looking at Post WWII Germany’s introduction of the NDM. Global economic suicide? ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2013, 6:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/223 "2013-10-09T18:49:05Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Good news, everyone! Several of the smartest Republican evah! have discovered that a failure to increase the debt ceiling is not big deal! Yay! No fair using Rand Paul to represent our view on economics. If you keep doing that, we’ll have to use Bill Clinton to represent the Dem view on monogamy. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2013, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/224 "2013-10-09T18:55:57Z")
Bet those guys who make their money conning people into investing in gold are popping the champagne corks tonight! ---
**Author:** ![silenus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/silenus/32/166_2.png) [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2013, 7:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/225 "2013-10-09T19:02:33Z")
Kochs are starting to [distance themselves](http://nbcpolitics.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/10/09/20886586-kochs-to-congress-focus-on-spending-not-obamacare?lite) from the nutballs. The cracks are starting to appear. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Drake](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ad7895/32.png) [@Dr.Drake](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Drake)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2013, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/226 "2013-10-14T15:43:32Z")
Just a mini-bump to get back to the original question: it’s now Monday, and the magic date is Thursday. (Magic not guaranteed. Actual default may occur at any time.) What are the odds that the U.S. will default? I know British bookmakers are giving odds, but I can’t seem to find anything online that isn’t already a week old. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2013, 3:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/227 "2013-10-14T15:50:45Z")
They won’t, only thing left to decide is how hard the Republicans will have to take it up the ass. A clean increase would actually be a best case scenario for them at this point. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Drake](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ad7895/32.png) [@Dr.Drake](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Drake)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2013, 3:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/228 "2013-10-14T15:55:55Z")
> [@DigitalC](#): > > They won’t, only thing left to decide is how hard the Republicans will have to take it up the ass. A clean increase would actually be a best case scenario for them at this point. Are you saying the odds are zero? Because I think that’s incorrect. If a meteor hits Washington tonight, they’ll probably default (especially if the Republicans are all having a meeting at an Applebee’s in Baltimore at the time). I don’t think the US will default, but I’m curious what odds are being given. I assume closer to zero than 100%, but it’s got to be more than zero. ---
**Author:** ![jasg](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f0a364/32.png) [@jasg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jasg)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2013, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/229 "2013-10-14T16:18:46Z")
Some are claiming that is now in The hands of Ted Cruz. He could insist on following Senate rules and push a vote past the Thursday deadline, even if the Senate comes up with a deal today. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2013, 4:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/230 "2013-10-14T16:20:16Z")
> [@Dr.Drake](#): > > Are you saying the odds are zero? Because I think that’s incorrect. If a meteor hits Washington tonight, they’ll probably default (especially if the Republicans are all having a meeting at an Applebee’s in Baltimore at the time). I don’t think the US will default, but I’m curious what odds are being given. I assume closer to zero than 100%, but it’s got to be more than zero. No, not zero but what they are engaging in now are negotiations over face saving, not over raising the limit. ---
**Author:** ![Dinsdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/97f17d/32.png) [@Dinsdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dinsdale)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2013, 10:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/231 "2013-10-14T22:10:47Z")
As of last week, the gov’t owes me over $1500 in salary for days they required that I work but did not pay me. So as far as I’m concerned, they already defaulted. Sure, you want to pay creditors, but in my book, failing to make payroll is about as bad as it gets. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903.md?page=11)