# What are the odds that the U.S. will default? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 29, 2013, 4:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903 "2013-09-29T04:24:15Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2013, 5:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/81 "2013-10-01T05:03:11Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > Push came to shove. Did you ever hear the expression “past performance does not guarantee future results”? > > Not that I expect what I consider the principled and courageous behavior by the conservatives to continue for long. I see many Republicans telling the Tea Partiers that this is not courageous but foolish, IMHO, many Americans will demand to “throw all the rascals out” of the House specially, so as the majority there are Republican… [http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2013/09/30/2698471/republicans-against-the-shutdown/](http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2013/09/30/2698471/republicans-against-the-shutdown/) > [@](#): > > A poll released Monday backed up this idea, finding that 46 percent of people would blame Congressional Republicans for a shutdown. > > Because they know that a shutdown would be bad for the economy and that their party will be blamed, even staunch detractors of Obamacare are coming out against their Republican colleagues and demanding they ditch their shutdown strategy. Here’s a list of who is telling their Republicans to stop trying to defund Obamacare and making their party look bad: > > **The GOP Members of the House** > > Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK): Asked on MSNBC on Monday if a shutdown was “going to hurt the Republicans,” Cole said, “I do, but more importantly I think it’s going to hurt the American people.” > > Rep. Charlie Dent (R-PA): “I’m prepared to vote for a clean resolution tomorrow… It’s time to govern. I don’t intend to support a fool’s errand at this point.” > > Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen (R-NJ): “Obamacare is definitely not ready for prime time. But I do not want the government to shut down. I think after voting against it some 40 times, we have represented our constituents and made our point.” > > Rep. Chris Gibson (R-NY): “From my perspective, the desired end state remains the same — a delay of the Affordable Care Act/Obamacare and a temporary lifting of the sequester — both to January 2015… However, we need a successful strategy to get that implemented, and this approach will not do it.” > > Rep. Michael Grimm (R-NY): “The circus created the past few days isn’t reflective of mainstream Republicans — it projects an image of not being reasonable. The vast majority of Republicans are pretty level-headed and are here to govern.” > > Rep. Richard Hanna (R-NY): “[A]s a lifelong and consistent supporter of women’s rights and health care, I do not support addressing divisive social issues such as access to birth control on a last-minute continuing resolution.’’ > > Rep. Peter King (R-NY): “We should not be closing down the government under any circumstances… That doesn’t work, it’s wrong, and, you know, Obamacare passed. We have to try to defund it, we have to try to find ways to repeal it. But the fact is, we shouldn’t be using it as a threat to shut down the government.” > > Rep. Devin Nunes (R-CA): “We’re pretty much out of options at this point. They’re all giddy about it. You know who benefits the most here from a shutdown? The Democrats benefit and they know that.” > > Rep. Tom Rooney (R-FL): “The shutdown doesn’t do anything to help our reputation as an incompetent Congress,… People hire us not to get to this point in the first place.” > > Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI): “We have to stay on the right side of public opinion… Shutting down the government puts us on the wrong side. The fight is on the debt limit.” > > Rep. Frank Wolf (R-VA): Wolf warned that his party will be blamed in the case of a shutdown. “That’s the battle that’s going on in my party. There are some that are saying, ‘shut it down! … If we shut the government down, who’s going to fund the [Veteran Affairs] Hospital? Who’s going to fund the veteran who doesn’t have a leg? Who’s going to fund the FBI who’s working on a counter-terrorism case? Who’s going to fund cancer research?” > > **The Republican Senators** > > Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-NH): “I think we should make every effort we can to make sure we stop this law but I don’t believe they should shut down the government to do so, and I don’t think that is a strategy that is good for America.” > > Sen. John Boozman (R-AR): “I don’t think this is the battlefield where it needs to be fought” > > Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC): “I think it’s the dumbest idea I’ve ever heard… as long as Barack Obama is president the Affordable Care Act is gonna be law. I think some of these guys need to understand that if you shut down the federal government, you better have a specific reason to do it that’s achievable.” > > Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA): ” I’d love to [defund Obamacare] too. But shutting down the government and playing into the hands of the president politically is not the right thing to do. Plus, it’s going to do great harm to the American people if we pursue that course. We’ve been there. It didn’t work.” > > Sen. Dan Coats (R-IN): “Here’s the hard truth: President Obama will not overturn his signature legislation so long as he is president and the Democrats have control of the Senate. Along with these political realities, refusing to pass legislation to keep the government funded will not stop Obamacare from going into effect.” > > Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK): “It’s not an achievable strategy. It’s creating the false impression that you can do something when you can’t. And it’s dishonest.” More in the link. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2013, 5:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/82 "2013-10-01T05:09:21Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > I see many Republicans telling the Tea Partiers that this is not courageous but foolish, IMHO, many Americans will demand to “throw all the rascals out” of the House specially, so as the majority there are Republican… Again, that would be their opinion, not a fact. And if you project that this will damage Republicans’ electoral prospects, then you should be happy about the shutdown. And don’t tell me you would “like a responsible opposition party”. That’s just crocodile tear bull. By the way, you listed quite a few Republicans in your quote there. Yet the “rebel” Republican “moderates” could only muster 7 votes today in their “rebellion”. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2013, 5:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/83 "2013-10-01T05:19:16Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > Again, that would be their opinion, not a fact. And if you project that this will damage Republicans’ electoral prospects, then you should be happy about the shutdown. And don’t tell me you would “like a responsible opposition party”. That’s just crocodile tear bull. The whole reasoning for opposing this and calling it a bill (when it is a law) is an opinion too, and an uneducated one. > [@Terr](#): > > By the way, you listed quite a few Republicans in your quote there. Yet the “rebel” Republican “moderates” could only muster 7 votes today in their “rebellion”. Party before country is also not a good position to keep. The point stands, several the republicans that are following the party or being forced by their base to follow this foolishness are not confident on your sorry opinion here. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2013, 5:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/84 "2013-10-01T05:23:43Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > Push came to shove. Did you ever hear the expression “past performance does not guarantee future results”? > > Not that I expect what I consider the principled and courageous behavior by the conservatives to continue for long. Not even your fellow conservative **adaher** advocates holding the debt ceiling hostage for this. Why do you think it’s a good idea? Do you assume that only Republicans will do it, and only when it’s “really important”? ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2013, 5:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/85 "2013-10-01T05:28:12Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > Not even your fellow conservative **adaher** advocates holding the debt ceiling hostage for this. Debt ceiling issue is a couple of weeks away. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2013, 5:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/86 "2013-10-01T05:42:39Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > And if you project that this will damage Republicans’ electoral prospects, then you should be happy about the shutdown. This “thought” epitomises what is so detestable about Republican “thinking.” Deliberately sabotaging the economy is admirable if it furthers one’s electoral chances. :smack: The fact, as evidenced in the quoted post, that America’s enemies believe the Democrats should or do act in the same unprincipled way shows some mental confusion. It would have taken only 17 GOP Representatives to pass a resolution; Gigobuster quotes many distinguished Republicans advocating sanity, including 11 in the House. What happened? Hastert Rule? ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2013, 5:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/87 "2013-10-01T05:44:08Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > This “thought” epitomises what is so detestable about Republican “thinking.” Deliberately sabotaging the economy is admirable if it furthers one’s electoral chances. :smack: The fact, as evidenced in the quoted post, that America’s enemies believe the Democrats should or do act in the same unprincipled way shows some mental confusion. As I said, crocodile tears. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2013, 5:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/88 "2013-10-01T05:49:44Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > Debt ceiling issue is a couple of weeks away. Ah, I see. Then consider it my attempt to get the subject back _onto_ the debt ceiling, seeing as how it was my original intent with this thread. Not sure it’ll work, or if it’s relevant, but there you go. 🙂 In fact, let me ask you the same question I asked **adaher** : assume that the Republicans don’t get (all of) what they want with this shutdown. Do you advocate them trying again with the debt ceiling? ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2013, 5:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/89 "2013-10-01T05:56:46Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > As I said, crocodile tears. You keep saying that, I do not think it means what you think it means. In this case it is the crocodiles (the Republicans) the ones eating the creature (the government) with fake remorse. The problem here is thinking that the American people will not see that and arrive to the conclusion that it is Party before country what the Republicans are pushing hard nowadays. Hence the latest polls showing that the bulk of the blame will land on the Republicans for those crocodile tears and other reasons. [http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/30/us-usa-fiscal-poll-idUSBRE98T0J720130930](http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/30/us-usa-fiscal-poll-idUSBRE98T0J720130930) ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2013, 5:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/90 "2013-10-01T05:56:53Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > Ah, I see. Then consider it my attempt to get the subject back _onto_ the debt ceiling, seeing as how it was my original intent with this thread. > > Not sure it’ll work, or if it’s relevant, but there you go. 🙂 > > In fact, let me ask you the same question I asked **adaher** : assume that the Republicans don’t get (all of) what they want with this shutdown. Do you advocate them trying again with the debt ceiling? IMO, government shutdowns are a great thing. I would prefer they would be more gradual (as when you drown one in a bathtub), but I’ll take what I can get. Unfortunately, it won’t last, but any time Americans wake up and the government is shut down and the sun is still shining and the birds are still chirping and life goes on, it’s a good teachable moment. And as long as US creditors are being paid (which takes what - $370B annually, which is easily covered by revenues), US is not bankrupt. ---
**Author:** ![MaxTheVool](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9fc29f/32.png) [@MaxTheVool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MaxTheVool)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2013, 5:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/91 "2013-10-01T05:57:09Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > Again, that would be their opinion, not a fact. And if you project that this will damage Republicans’ electoral prospects, then you should be happy about the shutdown. And don’t tell me you would “like a responsible opposition party”. That’s just crocodile tear bull. Here’s the important point, at least in my opinion. The US political system has teetered along at least basically successfully for over 200 years, for at least 100 or so of which it has at least vaguely resembled the way it works now (I mean, the legal framework has been mostly the same, barring constitutional amendments, but the two party system resembling the one we have now etc doesn’t date all the way back to 1789.) For much of that time, control of the presidency and two houses of congress has been split between parties. And yet, things have continued to get done. That’s because on top of the actual legalities of how a bill became a law there has been a level of understanding about the procedures, about how the majority and minority parties acted, when filibusters were threatened, etc. So despite this divided government, things continued to get done. Laws were passed. Infrastructure was built and maintained. The country improved. At any point in this history, any party that did not control the presidency but controlled one house of congress, or at least 40 votes in the senate, could have unilaterally decided that NOTHING was going to happen if it did not perfectly align with that party’s vision. No compromise, no meeting halfway, just my way or absolutely nothing happens. The way that filibustering and lawmaking is set up, that is 100% legal and has been forever. And yet (or so goes the liberal view of the last 10 years or so of history) no one did that until now, because until now the people we elected had enough flexibility of thought, enough willingness to compromise, enough belief in the power of government to do good, enough of SOMETHING, to NOT go into petulant no-no-no-no mode. Which the Republicans have now done. Can I prove with mathematical certainty that the recent behavior of congressional Republicans is distinctly different in quality from what came before them? I can not… and in fact I’d be interested in seeing a discussion of precisely that topic. However I strongly suspect it to be true, and that’s why your constant disclaiming that what they’re doing is legal etc etc etc rings so hollow. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2013, 6:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/92 "2013-10-01T06:00:04Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > The problem here is thinking that the American people will not see that and arrive to the conclusion that it is Party before country what the Republicans are pushing hard nowadays. The American people also see a Senate that rejects everything put in front of it by the House. Which led to the shutdown. > [@](#): > > Hence the latest polls showing that the bulk of the blame will land on the Republicans for those crocodile tears and other reasons. AFAIR, last time I saw it (yesterday), 69% said Republicans behaved like spoiled children. 58% said that of Democrats. 46% would blame Republicans, 36% would blame Obama. I don’t see a drastic difference. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2013, 6:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/93 "2013-10-01T06:02:02Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > IMO, government shutdowns are a great thing. I would prefer they would be more gradual (as when you drown one in a bathtub), but I’ll take what I can get. Unfortunately, it won’t last, but any time Americans wake up and the government is shut down and the sun is still shining and the birds are still chirping and life goes on, it’s a good teachable moment. > > And as long as US creditors are being paid (which takes what - $370B annually, which is easily covered by revenues), US is not bankrupt. So the answer is, yes, you advocate Republicans opposing the raising of the debt ceiling unless the ACA is delayed or repealed? (Genuine question; I’m trying to figure out what your answer to my question is. Please clarify if I’m not getting it right.) ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2013, 6:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/94 "2013-10-01T06:02:33Z")
> [@MaxTheVool](#): > > At any point in this history, any party that did not control the presidency but controlled one house of congress, or at least 40 votes in the senate, could have unilaterally decided that NOTHING was going to happen if it did not perfectly align with that party’s vision. No compromise, no meeting halfway, just my way or absolutely nothing happens. You see, I and a lot of Americans see it as Democrats saying my way or the highway and refusing to compromise. As in “clean CR or the puppy (government) gets it”. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2013, 6:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/95 "2013-10-01T06:05:08Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > So the answer is, yes, you advocate Republicans opposing the raising of the debt ceiling unless the ACA is delayed or repealed? > > (Genuine question; I’m trying to figure out what your answer to my question is. Please clarify if I’m not getting it right.) I would put something on it, yes. Not something enormous. Something like removing federal subsidies for the Congressmen and their staffs for their Obamacare premiums. See, the “debt ceiling” limit exists. If raising it is just a pro forma thing, then it has no reason to exist. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2013, 6:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/96 "2013-10-01T06:06:01Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > The American people also see a Senate that rejects everything put in front of it by the House. Which led to the shutdown. Wrong, the poll refers to congresspersons. That is the Senate and the House are included. > [@Terr](#): > > AFAIR, last time I saw it (yesterday), 69% said Republicans behaved like spoiled children. 58% said that of Democrats. 46% would blame Republicans, 36% would blame Obama. I don’t see a drastic difference. > [@](#): > > Forty-six percent said that if government agencies and programs start closing on Tuesday, they would fault Republicans in Congress while 36 percent said they would blame Obama, the CNN survey found. Thirteen percent said both would be at fault. > > About 60 percent of the 803 U.S. adults polled said they want lawmakers to pass a budget agreement to avoid the shutdown, according to the telephone survey conducted over the weekend. > > Just one-third said it was more important for Congress to block the healthcare law by cutting its funding, the survey showed. > [@](#): > > CNN’s findings mirror other recent polls that also found more U.S. adults blame conservative Republicans for any possible closure. Overall, surveys have shown people have little tolerance for government shutdowns. > > In a CBS/New York Times poll last week, eight in 10 people said it would be unacceptable for Obama or lawmakers to threaten shutdowns during budget negotiations to achieve their goals. A Pew Research Center poll, also released last week, said the majority of people in the United States want lawmakers to be more willing to compromise. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2013, 6:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/97 "2013-10-01T06:27:20Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > …See, the “debt ceiling” limit exists. If raising it is just a pro forma thing, then it has no reason to exist. Now, you’re starting to catch on. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2013, 6:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/98 "2013-10-01T06:31:52Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Now, you’re starting to catch on. Funny how the “Constitutional scholar” who is our President now didn’t “catch on” to that when he voted against raising the debt ceiling. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2013, 6:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/99 "2013-10-01T06:38:44Z")
A quick question to Democrats: was Democrat-led House in 1984 trying to destroy US economy and did they hold the US hostage when they [voted not to raise the Debt Ceiling twice](http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=IBxZAAAAIBAJ&sjid=dUYNAAAAIBAJ&pg=5295,6523482&dq=debt-ceiling+compromise&hl=en)? ---
**Author:** ![bengangmo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/50afbb/32.png) [@bengangmo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bengangmo)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2013, 6:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/100 "2013-10-01T06:49:34Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > A quick question to Democrats: was Democrat-led House in 1984 trying to destroy US economy and did they hold the US hostage when they [voted not to raise the Debt Ceiling twice](http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=IBxZAAAAIBAJ&sjid=dUYNAAAAIBAJ&pg=5295,6523482&dq=debt-ceiling+compromise&hl=en)? Well I can straight away see some critical differences in the two situations… a) the debate was over increased military spending, rather than the Democrats trying to strip funding for a law already approved b) hadn’t the president at the time already shut down the govt three years earlier by vetoing a budget? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903.md?page=6)