# What are the odds that the U.S. will default? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 29, 2013, 4:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903 "2013-09-29T04:24:15Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 9
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 4:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/161 "2013-10-08T16:29:33Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > It happens. Win the House next time. It doesn’t happen, threatening to harm the country to get your way is not a defensible position under any circumstance. ---
**Author:** ![tim-n-va](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tim-n-va/32/3001_2.png) [@tim-n-va](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tim-n-va)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/162 "2013-10-08T16:35:32Z")
There is no one for the Democrats to go to the table with. Boehner has no real credibility to deliver votes from the tea party caucus. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/163 "2013-10-08T16:35:57Z")
Democrats won’t and can’t condede, because that means functioning divided government is over. Shutdown and default threats are illegimate tactics and must not be scene as useful or legitimate. It’s the tactic that can’t be negotiated with, not the demands. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/164 "2013-10-08T16:38:16Z")
> [@tim-n-va](#): > > There is no one for the Democrats to go to the table with. Boehner has no real credibility to deliver votes from the tea party caucus. That’s also true- Boehner has virtually no control over his caucus, so none of his promises or claims can be reasonably trusted. ---
**Author:** ![Zakalwe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zakalwe/32/270_2.png) [@Zakalwe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zakalwe)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 4:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/165 "2013-10-08T16:39:44Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > Wasn’t enough, was it? Republicans offered to pass the CR. With small caveats (such as delaying the individual mandate for one year). Democrats refuse. Republicans cannot cave in or they are finished, politically. Democrats want them to be finished, politically, so they are refusing to deal. We get closer and closer to debt limit crisis. Who cares about the country or the economy, we’re doing politics here. Weeeee! > > As I said in the other thread, I am out and all in cash. Let the stock market tank. Oh man, really? “small caveats”? Even you don’t believe that. Let me paraphrase: Republicans: “You know that thing you guys did? Your big signature item? The one you campaigned on and fought for and finally got passed (even though we made you cut it way back)? That thing that was our idea to begin with? Remember that? We just want you to throw that in the trash, and give us everything else we want on the budget. Okay?” Democrats: “Hahahahaha! That’s a good one! Oh wait. You guys were serious about that? Whew. How about…no. But tell you what, we’ll give you all you want (and then some) on the budget. But ACA stays. How about that?” Republicans: “Yeah, well, thanks for the budget thing (suckers!). However, we’re feeling magnanimous today, so instead of trashing ACA, you just have to delay everything for a while. Yes, we know that delay will probably make the whole thing untenable and ridiculously unpopular, but that’s the idea (we were hoping you wouldn’t notice that part). So how’s that sound?” Democrats: “So you want 3/4s of what you asked for in the first place when you only control half of 1/3 of the government (and lost the popular vote even there) or you’ll wreck the country? How’z about you get fucked?” That about sum it up? ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/166 "2013-10-08T16:40:05Z")
> [@DigitalC](#): > > It doesn’t happen, threatening to harm the country to get your way is not a defensible position under any circumstance. Has every debt limit increase passed been a “clean” one? If not (and I assure you there were _many_ that were not), were those “defensible” positions? ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 4:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/167 "2013-10-08T16:42:15Z")
> [@Zakalwe](#): > > Oh man, really? “small caveats”? Even you don’t believe that. Let me paraphrase: > Republicans: “You know that thing you guys did? Your big signature item? The one you campaigned on and fought for and finally got passed (even though we made you cut it way back)? That thing that was our idea to begin with? Remember that? We just want you to throw that in the trash, and give us everything else we want on the budget. Okay?” Hyperbole. Delaying individual mandate for one year. Not “everything”. The individual mandate. The $95 fine, which even Democrats agree is ineffectual anyway. ---
**Author:** ![Zakalwe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zakalwe/32/270_2.png) [@Zakalwe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zakalwe)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 5:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/168 "2013-10-08T17:23:22Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > Hyperbole. Delaying individual mandate for one year. Not “everything”. The individual mandate. The $95 fine, which even Democrats agree is ineffectual anyway. _sigh_ No, it’s not hyperbole. The delay was their fallback position - they were quite vocal initially that they wanted the whole thing defunded and eliminated. Plus, with the preconditions restrictions (and lifetime caps) going away, the mandate is necessary to expand the risk pool or everyone’s health insurance will go way up. Which is exactly what the Republicans want so that they can get a mandate to eliminate the whole thing and go back to the way things were. This isn’t rocket science and it isn’t fooling anybody who’s paying even the smallest bit of attention. ---
**Author:** ![Kobal2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kobal2/32/20_2.png) [@Kobal2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kobal2)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 5:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/169 "2013-10-08T17:27:38Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > Democrats refuse to come to the table. Republicans have refused to come to the table _19 times_ over the past 6 months. They can’t expect their offers to “negociate” now, and with a gun on the table, to be met with anything but derision, contempt, or both. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 5:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/170 "2013-10-08T17:32:32Z")
> [@Zakalwe](#): > > _sigh_ No, it’s not hyperbole. The delay was their fallback position - they were quite vocal initially that they wanted the whole thing defunded and eliminated. So? Their current position is what I stated. Why didn’t you mention that? > [@](#): > > Plus, with the preconditions restrictions (and lifetime caps) going away, the mandate is necessary to expand the risk pool or everyone’s health insurance will go way up. What Republicans want to delay is the $95 annual fine. Compared to at least $100/month premium, it is ineffectual in forcing people to buy insurance. So why do Democrats think it is worth what they characterize as “destroying US economy” over? ---
**Author:** ![Zakalwe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zakalwe/32/270_2.png) [@Zakalwe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zakalwe)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/171 "2013-10-08T17:51:50Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > So? Their current position is what I stated. Why didn’t you mention that? You responded to my “paraphrase” of the situation. Specifically, you responded to my characterization of the Republican’s opening argument (which _was_ elimination of ACA altogether) with “hyperbole”. Then you offered their fall back position as if that’s all they ever asked for. It’s not and it’s silly to pretend that it was. > [@](#): > > What Republicans want to delay is the $95 annual fine. Compared to at least $100/month premium, it is ineffectual in forcing people to buy insurance. So why do Democrats think it is worth what they characterize as “destroying US economy” over? Where are you getting that? Everything I’ve read says the Republicans want to “delay the mandate”. But let’s assume for a second that you’re right (I’m going to regret this, I know I am): So, the Republican positions is “we have a law, but we’re not going to enforce it”. Didn’t they just lose their shit over Obama doing the same thing with illegal immigrants? Why is it okay now? ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 5:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/172 "2013-10-08T17:54:01Z")
> [@Zakalwe](#): > > Then you offered their fall back position as if that’s all they ever asked for. Wrong. I never said that is “all they ever asked for”. I said that is what they are asking for now. > [@](#): > > Where are you getting that? Everything I’ve read says the Republicans want to “delay the mandate”. Yes. “mandate”. That’s what I said. Not “Obamacare”. > [@](#): > > But let’s assume for a second that you’re right (I’m going to regret this, I know I am): So, the Republican positions is “we have a law, but we’re not going to enforce it”. That’s Obama’s position too. He delayed the employer mandate. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 6:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/173 "2013-10-08T18:02:58Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > Democrats refuse to come to the table. Let’s say we’re negotiating over what to order for lunch. Currently the order in place is sandwiches (which I love), cookies (which I love), and ice tea (which I hate). You hate sandwiches and cookies, but love ice tea. You want to negotiate. Here are three strategies you can choose: 1. You can ask me to come to the table to negotiate: you want to get pizza and ice cream instead, and you figure that maybe if you allow the pizza to have ham on it, that’s kind of like sandwiches, so that’s your negotiating point: why don’t we change the sandwiches to ham pizza? You’ll even give up your demand for ice cream. You refuse to negotiate about the ice tea. IF YOU CHOOSE THIS METHOD, I won’t come to the table, because you’re not negotiating, you’re petulantly whining about not getting your way. 2. You can threaten to pee all over the lunch when it comes unless I change the sandwich order to a ham pizza order. IF YOU CHOOSE THIS METHOD, I won’t come to the table, because you’re not negotiating, you’re trying to extort a concession from me. 3. You can offer to give ground on the ice tea, allowing me to choose the drink, if I’m willing to change the sandwich order to ham pizza. IF YOU DO THAT, I’ll come to the table, and we’ll have a back-and-forth discussion, because THAT’S HOW YOU NEGOTIATE. Republicans for a long time have been going for option 1: they’re totally unwilling to give ground on what they like (low taxes, for example), but they want Democrats to give in to their demands. They think that if Democrats only give in to some of their demands but not all of them, that’s a negotiation, despite their own unwillingness to give any ground. The budget shutdown represents option 2: they’re threatening to destroy things for everyone if they don’t get their way. Again, they think that if they only get part of their way, that’s a negotiation, even if they don’t signal their willingness to give ground on something important to them. They’re wrong. If they were serious, they’d promise not to pee on the economy, and after the budget was passed, they’d come back to the table with a proposal that gives the Democrats something new that they don’t already have, and also gets them something they don’t already have. Until they do that, they’re not actually asking for a negotiation, they’re asking for a capitulation. Of course the Democrats won’t come to the table for that–why would they? If they were serious, though, they’d negotiate in a real way ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 6:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/174 "2013-10-08T18:05:27Z")
> [@](#): > > Without the “fiscal gun” Democrats have absolutely no incentive to negotiate. Incorrect. Democrats have a huge incentive to negotiate, the same incentive that Republicans could have: Good government is impossible without negotiation. That’s why the Democrats have kept trying to negotiate. Note, however, that _bad_ government is quite possible without negotiation. In their quest to destroy government, Republicans are actually just guaranteeing that the government is going to be powerful but bad. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 6:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/175 "2013-10-08T18:06:12Z")
> [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](#): > > and after the budget was passed, they’d come back to the table with a proposal that gives the Democrats something new that they don’t already have, and also gets them something they don’t already have. Since _after the budget was passed_ means Republicans have folded like Democrats’ little bitches to Democrat demands, what incentive do Democrats have to negotiate on anything with the Republicans? > [@](#): > > Until they do that, they’re not actually asking for a negotiation, they’re asking for a capitulation. Capitulation is exactly what Democrats are asking for right now from Republicans. Why do you think Republicans should agree? ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/176 "2013-10-08T18:07:14Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Incorrect. Democrats have a huge incentive to negotiate, the same incentive that Republicans could have: Good government is impossible without negotiation. As we can see with the current impasse. Yet Democrats refuse to negotiate. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/177 "2013-10-08T18:09:43Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > Since _after the budget was passed_ means Republicans have folded like Democrats’ little bitches to Democrat demands, what incentive do Democrats have to negotiate on anything with the Republicans? If by “Democrat demands” you mean “the request to not use the budget as a tool of fiscal terrorism,” then sure, characterize it that way. But you’re basically saying that they came to their senses and stopped behaving in a vicious, unreasonable manner. Why would Democrats negotiate? Again, and I’ll try a bigger font this time: REPUBLICANS WOULD OFFER A CONCESSION! If Republicans offer to sign on to higher capital gains tax rate, for example, they’d be offering something Democrats want, and of course Democrats will negotiate to get something they want. It really seems like you don’t understand what a negotiation means. It sounds like you’re wondering why Democrats would ever cave in to Republican demands, if it’s clear that Republicans won’t pee on the economy when they don’t get what they want. To which I say: sure, that horrible strategy will stop working, and good riddance. Republicans will have to start actually negotiating, not extorting, for the policies they want. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/178 "2013-10-08T18:09:58Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > Since _after the budget was passed_ means Republicans have folded like Democrats’ little bitches to Democrat demands, what incentive do Democrats have to negotiate on anything with the Republicans? The incentive is that the propaganda machine for and the funding for the Republicans will still be there so any rejection from the Democrats to make deals after the budget passes will be (rightfully I must say) used as effective talking points in the next elections. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 6:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/179 "2013-10-08T18:12:16Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > Since _after the budget was passed_ means Republicans have folded like Democrats’ little bitches to Democrat demands, what incentive do Democrats have to negotiate on anything with the Republicans? > Capitulation is exactly what Democrats are asking for right now from Republicans. Why do you think Republicans should agree? Goddamn, I don’t know how to make this clearer. The capitulation they’re asking for is that they won’t destroy the economy. UNLESS REPUBLICANS REALLY WANT TO DESTROY THE ECONOMY, that’s not a concession, that’s just telling them to knock it off with the extortion. Demanding a concession would be something like, and I’ve said this before several times, “We won’t sign the budget unless you give us universal health care.” Democrats aren’t asking for that, so they’re not asking for the same sort of concession that Republicans are asking for: they’re asking for a tactic to stop being used, not asking for a policy concession. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 6:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903/180 "2013-10-08T18:17:20Z")
> [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](#): > > If by “Democrat demands” you mean “the request to not use the budget as a tool of fiscal terrorism,” then sure, characterize it that way. By “Democrat demands” I mean the demand to have “clean” CR and “clean” debt ceiling bill. They even have the audacity to claim that attaching things to debt ceiling bills is unprecedented - when half of debt ceiling bills in the past had things attached to them. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903.md?page=8) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-that-the-u-s-will-default/669903.md?page=10)