# What are the odds we see Senator Arpaio? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 28, 2017, 7:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-we-see-senator-arpaio/794953 "2017-08-28T19:44:25Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2017, 7:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-we-see-senator-arpaio/794953/1 "2017-08-28T19:44:25Z")
[Washington Examiner: Joe Arpaio may challenge Jeff Flake for Arizona Senate seat](http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/joe-arpaio-may-challenge-jeff-flake-for-arizona-senate-seat/article/2632732) > [@](#): > > After receiving President Trump’s first pardon, Joe Arpaio’s plans have gone from possible prison to book-writing, speeches and potentially another run for office in Arizona, with Sen. Jeff Flake’s seat one opportunity he is eyeing. > > The former Maricopa County sheriff told the Washington Examiner he’s upset at negative reaction to the Friday pardon, and that he feels Republican politicians are insufficiently supportive of the president, who he calls a great man. > > “I could run for mayor, I could run for legislator, I could run for Senate,” Arpaio said Monday. One particular race, however, is likely to gain significant attention: the GOP primary next year facing Flake, R-Ariz., a forceful Trump critic. > > “I’m sure getting a lot of people around the state asking me” to challenge Flake, said Arpaio, who served 24 years as sheriff before losing reelection in 2016. “All I’m saying is the door is open and we’ll see what happens. I’ve got support. I know what support I have.” What do you think are the chances that 1. he runs for Senate? 2. he wins the GOP nomination? 3. he wins the general election? I’d put #1 at the lowest probability, mostly because he’s old as dirt, with #2 and #3 fairly plausible if he does run. ---
**Author:** ![VinylTurnip](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/b2d939/32.png) [@VinylTurnip](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VinylTurnip)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2017, 7:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-we-see-senator-arpaio/794953/2 "2017-08-28T19:56:28Z")
Sure, why not? Let’s make this shit sandwich a party sub. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2017, 7:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-we-see-senator-arpaio/794953/3 "2017-08-28T19:57:49Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > 1. he runs for Senate? > > 2. he wins the GOP nomination? > > 3. he wins the general election? > > I’d put #1 at the lowest probability, mostly because he’s old as dirt, with #2 and #3 fairly plausible if he does run. Maricopa County was 47-44 Trump, but Arpaio lost 43-56. Maricopa is not the most blue country in AZ. It’s closer to the median. He’s also running against an incumbent Senator who won his last primary with 70% of the vote. Finally, he’s currently asking the federal court to vacate his conviction because of the pardon, in part because of the effect of his conviction on other aspects of his life. So there’s a chance this talk is just to bolster his legal standing. He is also 85 years old. On the other hand, he has widespread name recognition among the law enforcement, Birthers, and White Nationalists, which has only increased with Trump’s pardon. So he can probably raise money. And Jeff Flake is going to struggle more than usual in the primary with Trump opposing him. And Arizona is still a red state. So all in all I’d put the odds this way (framed as overall likelihood, not contingent based on the prior event occurring): 1. 25% chance he runs 2. 8% chance he wins the nomination 3. 3% chance he wins the seat What about you? ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2017, 8:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-we-see-senator-arpaio/794953/4 "2017-08-28T20:10:27Z")
Maybe I’m doing my probabilities funky, but here’s my WAG thinking: 1. 10% chance he runs 2. (assuming he does run) 25% chance he wins the Republican nomination 3. (assuming he wins the R nomination) 40% chance he wins the seat ---
**Author:** ![Rick\_Kitchen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rick_kitchen/32/522_2.png) [@Rick\_Kitchen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick_Kitchen)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2017, 8:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-we-see-senator-arpaio/794953/5 "2017-08-28T20:16:14Z")
Artile 1, Section 5 of the US Constitution: “Each House shall be the Judge of the Elections, Returns and Qualifications of its own Members”. It will be fun to see how stand-up the Republicans in the Senate are as to whether to accept this slug as one of their own. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2017, 8:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-we-see-senator-arpaio/794953/6 "2017-08-28T20:20:20Z")
> [@Rick\_Kitchen](#): > > Artile 1, Section 5 of the US Constitution: “Each House shall be the Judge of the Elections, Returns and Qualifications of its own Members”. It will be fun to see how stand-up the Republicans in the Senate are as to whether to accept this slug as one of their own. If Arpaio were to run, defeat Flake, and win the general election, I imagine you’d see a significantly-cowed anti-Trump wing of the Republican party. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2017, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-we-see-senator-arpaio/794953/7 "2017-08-28T20:23:26Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Maybe I’m doing my probabilities funky, but here’s my WAG thinking: > > 1. 10% chance he runs > > 2. (assuming he does run) 25% chance he wins the Republican nomination > > 3. (assuming he wins the R nomination) 40% chance he wins the seat I think this means we basically agree, except that I put a higher chance that he runs. I could see him running just for vanity and fundraising purposes, or as a favor to Trump. ---
**Author:** ![Ambrosio\_Spinola](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9de0a6/32.png) [@Ambrosio\_Spinola](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ambrosio_Spinola)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2017, 8:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-we-see-senator-arpaio/794953/8 "2017-08-28T20:41:42Z")
If he did throw his hat in a primary, I assume the big beneficiary would be Jeff Flake. Why? Kelli Ward is also challenging him, and I bet there’s a big overlap between Ward and Arpaio voters. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2017, 8:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-we-see-senator-arpaio/794953/9 "2017-08-28T20:50:04Z")
> [@Ambrosio\_Spinola](#): > > If he did throw his hat in a primary, I assume the big beneficiary would be Jeff Flake. Why? Kelli Ward is also challenging him, and I bet there’s a big overlap between Ward and Arpaio voters. This seems likely to me, as well. Mentioned in the Examiner article (and in the news coverage I heard this morning) is, of course, Arpaio’s age. He’ll turn 86 next June (parenthetically, he and Trump share a birthday). I see no reason for age, in and of itself, to be a determining factor in whether a candidate is capable of serving – and, AFAICT, Arpaio suffers from no noteworthy health issues. OTOH, he’s at an age where suffering from a significant health issue does become increasingly likely. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2017, 9:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-we-see-senator-arpaio/794953/10 "2017-08-28T21:05:09Z")
I’d put it at almost certain that he runs for something, as an ego trip and fundraising exercise if nothing else. The only reason it wouldn’t be Senator is that he might not want to compete with Ward. I don’t see him winning, though, not even in the primary. A primary against an incumbent is always tough, and I don’t think that Trump’s endorsement is enough to overcome that. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2017, 9:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-we-see-senator-arpaio/794953/11 "2017-08-28T21:05:15Z")
> [@Ambrosio\_Spinola](#): > > If he did throw his hat in a primary, I assume the big beneficiary would be Jeff Flake. Why? Kelli Ward is also challenging him, and I bet there’s a big overlap between Ward and Arpaio voters. Based on the poll made [before Arpaio was pardoned](http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/phoenix/2017/08/21/poll-arizonans-oppose-sheriff-joe-arpaio-pardon-president-donald-trump-phoenix-rally/586957001/), the reality is that most Arizonas did not want that pardon, and based on the last election neither Arpaio. So, I would indeed put better odds on him running than winning. ---
**Author:** ![Locrian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/locrian/32/14146_2.png) [@Locrian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Locrian)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2017, 9:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-we-see-senator-arpaio/794953/12 "2017-08-28T21:51:07Z")
Trump backs Arpaio, obviously. I think he’ll run 100%. Imagine the free late-nite tweets Orangeanus will throw at Flake. Whether he’ll win, no idea. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2017, 10:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-we-see-senator-arpaio/794953/13 "2017-08-28T22:14:44Z")
> [@Ambrosio\_Spinola](#): > > If he did throw his hat in a primary, I assume the big beneficiary would be Jeff Flake. Why? Kelli Ward is also challenging him, and I bet there’s a big overlap between Ward and Arpaio voters. I think this is a big factor. Flake already has an established challenger. Arpaio entering the race would most likely just split the anti-Flake vote and get Flake the nomination. > [@Locrian](#): > > Trump backs Arpaio, obviously. Trump’s already announced he’s supporting Ward. Granted, this is Trump; he might switch his endorsement. But endorsing two competing nominees is going to weaken the value of the endorsement. ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2017, 11:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-we-see-senator-arpaio/794953/14 "2017-08-28T23:12:44Z")
> [@Locrian](#): > > Trump backs Arpaio, obviously. I think he’ll run 100%. Imagine the free late-nite tweets Orangeanus will throw at Flake. > Whether he’ll win, no idea. > [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > I think this is a big factor. Flake already has an established challenger. Arpaio entering the race would most likely just split the anti-Flake vote and get Flake the nomination. > Trump’s already announced he’s supporting Ward. Granted, this is Trump; he might switch his endorsement. But endorsing two competing nominees is going to weaken the value of the endorsement. Either way–Trump sticks with Ward, or Trump switches to Arpaio–either way, Trump pisses off McConnell. Which is an ever-present goal for our “very good brain” guy. Trump genuinely believes he can take down McConnell. Trump thinks he’ll wind up with a Senate that will be eager to fulfill his slightest whim. ---
**Author:** ![Ethilrist](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ethilrist/32/4604_2.png) [@Ethilrist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ethilrist)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2017, 12:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-we-see-senator-arpaio/794953/15 "2017-08-29T00:06:03Z")
Remember, you can’t spell “crazy” without R-AZ! ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2017, 2:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-we-see-senator-arpaio/794953/16 "2017-08-29T02:35:15Z")
He won’t run for anything. He’s a Sarah Palin and will make his money on the speaking and book writing circuit Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![cochrane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cochrane/32/10441_2.png) [@cochrane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cochrane)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2017, 4:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-we-see-senator-arpaio/794953/17 "2017-08-29T04:58:29Z")
> [@Ethilrist](#): > > Remember, you can’t spell “crazy” without R-AZ! LOL, so fucking true! ---
**Author:** ![Senegoid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senegoid/32/6606_2.png) [@Senegoid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Senegoid)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2017, 6:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-we-see-senator-arpaio/794953/18 "2017-08-30T06:49:35Z")
> [@kenobi\_65](#): > > Mentioned in the Examiner article (and in the news coverage I heard this morning) is, of course, Arpaio’s age. He’ll turn 86 next June (parenthetically, he and Trump share a birthday). I see no reason for age, in and of itself, to be a determining factor in whether a candidate is capable of serving – and, AFAICT, Arpaio suffers from no noteworthy health issues. OTOH, he’s at an age where suffering from a significant health issue does become increasingly likely. We had a post in some Arpaio thread a few years back – sorry, can’t find it now – from a poster who had had some in-person encounters with him, and described him as being seemingly senile. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2017, 2:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-we-see-senator-arpaio/794953/19 "2017-08-31T14:36:36Z")
There’s a related PreditIt market: [Will Jeff Flake be re-elected to the U.S. Senate in Arizona in 2018?](https://www.predictit.org/Contract/7345/Will-Jeff-Flake-be-re-elected-to-the-US-Senate-in-Arizona-in-2018#data) The month of August has not been kind to Jeff Flake, but I don’t see any reaction in the graph to Arpaio’s pardon or subsequent rumblings about running for office. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2017, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-we-see-senator-arpaio/794953/20 "2017-08-31T15:41:57Z")
Wow. $0.29. Ouch! PredictIt is giving Flake WAY worse odds than Tester in Montana ($0.71), Donnelly in Indiana ($0.60), Heitkamp in North Dakota ($0.58), and McCaskill in Missouri ($0.51). [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-we-see-senator-arpaio/794953.md?page=2)