# What are the odds we see Senator Arpaio? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 28, 2017, 7:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-we-see-senator-arpaio/794953 "2017-08-28T19:44:25Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2017, 3:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-we-see-senator-arpaio/794953/21 "2017-08-31T15:59:47Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Wow. $0.29. Ouch! > > PredictIt is giving Flake WAY worse odds than Tester in Montana ($0.71), Donnelly in Indiana ($0.60), Heitkamp in North Dakota ($0.58), and McCaskill in Missouri ($0.51). It’s because Flake is a lot more likely to lose his primary than those others. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2017, 4:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-we-see-senator-arpaio/794953/22 "2017-08-31T16:05:03Z")
Even so, Tester No is a pretty good value at $0.29. That’s about the same price as Stabenow No. Maybe I’m missing something, but in my mind those two things shouldn’t be close. ---
**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2017, 4:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-we-see-senator-arpaio/794953/23 "2017-08-31T16:13:23Z")
> [@Ambrosio\_Spinola](#): > > If he did throw his hat in a primary, I assume the big beneficiary would be Jeff Flake. Why? Kelli Ward is also challenging him, and I bet there’s a big overlap between Ward and Arpaio voters. That sounds plausible. > [@kenobi\_65](#): > > Mentioned in the Examiner article (and in the news coverage I heard this morning) is, of course, Arpaio’s age. He’ll turn 86 next June (parenthetically, he and Trump share a birthday). I see no reason for age, in and of itself, to be a determining factor in whether a candidate is capable of serving – and, AFAICT, Arpaio suffers from no noteworthy health issues. OTOH, he’s at an age where suffering from a significant health issue does become increasingly likely. Well I disagree. 86 years old for a 6 year term is too old. If 86 is ok with you when does age becomes the major determining factor? 87? 90? 92? ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2017, 4:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-we-see-senator-arpaio/794953/24 "2017-08-31T16:33:53Z")
Wait, are we sure he’d be running for Flake’s seat? McCain is probably going to either die or retire before then, and while a replacement will be appointed by the governor, it’s my understanding that the appointee will only serve until the next election (even if that wouldn’t have been the end of the original term), with someone being elected to finish that term. So there’s no reason he couldn’t run for that seat, instead. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2017, 4:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-we-see-senator-arpaio/794953/25 "2017-08-31T16:39:55Z")
Near zero. He’s too old, too unpopular and laden with political baggage. And I don’t think he would even want to be a senator. ---
**Author:** ![beowulff](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/beowulff/32/542_2.png) [@beowulff](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/beowulff)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2017, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-we-see-senator-arpaio/794953/26 "2017-08-31T20:05:18Z")
I very much doubt he will run. Arpaio likes being the king of his little fiefdom. He will be only one of 50 as a Senator, which can’t be appealing. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2017, 8:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-we-see-senator-arpaio/794953/27 "2017-08-31T20:29:36Z")
> [@beowulff](#): > > I very much doubt he will run. > Arpaio likes being the king of his little fiefdom. He will be only one of 50 as a Senator, which can’t be appealing. Well, he will be one of 100, should he get elected. Barack Obama didn’t like the slow pace of the Senate and he was far younger than Arpaio. ---
**Author:** ![DummyGladHands](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/49beb7/32.png) [@DummyGladHands](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DummyGladHands)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2017, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-we-see-senator-arpaio/794953/28 "2017-09-01T14:52:58Z")
> [@Senegoid](#): > > We had a post in some Arpaio thread a few years back – sorry, can’t find it now – from a poster who had had some in-person encounters with him, and described him as being seemingly senile. I for one met him a couple time, and I know people in the Phoenix gov’t who’ve had the dubious honor as well. Completely senile. His handlers earn their money. I was at a luncheon honoring my company and others who’d raised funds for his kids’ charity. Buffet luncheon. First he made fun of 2 guys uniforms shirts, following them around and pointing and menacing and kept approaching them until he’d backed them against the wall. The chairperson ran over and jumped between Joe (and his pistol tie clip) and the poor people and shouted until his handlers came over. When the buffet lunch started, he picked up a serving spoon of something and ate a bite off the spoon, apparently decided he didn’t care for it, spit it back on the spoon and put the spoon back in the dish. Completely senile. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2017, 5:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-we-see-senator-arpaio/794953/29 "2017-09-01T17:27:30Z")
I missed another related PredictIt market… [Will Jeff Flake win the 2018 Arizona Republican Senate primary?](https://www.predictit.org/Contract/7344/Will-Jeff-Flake-win-the-2018-Arizona-Republican-Senate-primary#data) Flake is currently a whisker worse than 50/50. ---
**Author:** ![Marvin\_the\_Martian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/marvin_the_martian/32/2898_2.png) [@Marvin\_the\_Martian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marvin_the_Martian)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2017, 5:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-we-see-senator-arpaio/794953/30 "2017-09-01T17:29:28Z")
This discussion just put a very bad thought into my head. Assume the Arizona Republicans convince him not to run, or if he loses the primary. He then decides to run for mayor of Fountain Hills (the town where he and I both live). He could win that and re-establish his own (albeit small) fiefdom, with me as one of his subjects (assuming he doesn’t run all the registered Dems out of town). That would suck big-time. At least for me. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2017, 5:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-we-see-senator-arpaio/794953/31 "2017-09-01T17:48:19Z")
Jolted Joe will be lucky if his personal fiefdom doesn’t have bars. He no longer has any power to keep the hounds at bay. He is a fool to call any more attention to himself. Its not a coincidence that evil men are so frequently stupid. Half the time, they don’t even know that they are. ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2017, 3:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-we-see-senator-arpaio/794953/32 "2017-09-02T03:52:42Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Its not a coincidence that evil men are so frequently stupid. Half the time, they don’t even know that they are. Don’t know they’re evil, or that they’re stupid? My money’s on both. ---
**Author:** ![Senegoid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senegoid/32/6606_2.png) [@Senegoid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Senegoid)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2017, 2:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-we-see-senator-arpaio/794953/33 "2017-09-03T02:32:04Z")
> [@DummyGladHands](#): > > I for one met him a couple time, and I know people in the Phoenix gov’t who’ve had the dubious honor as well. Completely senile. His handlers earn their money. > > [Anecdote about the luncheon recounted here.] Yes, that’s the story! I remember it now. Didn’t you also have a story about getting in an elevator with him and his goons? Even now that I have a few key words to search for and your user name, I still can’t find your original post with a Google search. 😕 ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2017, 1:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-we-see-senator-arpaio/794953/34 "2017-09-08T01:48:28Z")
> [@VinylTurnip](#): > > Sure, why not? Let’s make this shit sandwich a party sub. I laughed way too hard at this. Trump, Arpaio, Kid Rock. Apt metaphor. ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2017, 2:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-we-see-senator-arpaio/794953/35 "2017-09-08T02:21:41Z")
To transplant a post from another thread, > [@"\[buzzfeed](#): > > ([Joe Arpaio Wants His Conviction Tossed Out Now That He's Been Pardoned](https://www.buzzfeed.com/zoetillman/joe-arpaio-wants-his-conviction-tossed-out-now-that-hes?utm_term=.st3KRmlAX#.mny2WRKVp))"]Arpaio’s lawyers filed court papers on Monday arguing that because Trump issued the pardon before Arpaio was sentenced and a final judgment was entered — and, as a result, before Arpaio could appeal his conviction and before the US Supreme Court ruled on an earlier challenge that Arpaio filed related to his trial — the court is “obligated” to vacate his conviction. Which sounds wrong to me. However, > [@](#): > > A Justice Department spokesperson said they are “reviewing the motion.” That is troubling. Accepting a pardon constitutes an admission of guilt. Not sure that vacating the ruling would change the fact that he admitted guilt. ---
**Author:** ![bizzwire](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/958977/32.png) [@bizzwire](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bizzwire)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2017, 1:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-we-see-senator-arpaio/794953/36 "2017-09-12T01:27:38Z")
> [@kenobi\_65](#): > > This seems likely to me, as well. > > Mentioned in the Examiner article (and in the news coverage I heard this morning) is, of course, Arpaio’s age. He’ll turn 86 next June (parenthetically, he and Trump share a birthday). I see no reason for age, in and of itself, to be a determining factor in whether a candidate is capable of serving – and, AFAICT, Arpaio suffers from no noteworthy health issues. OTOH, he’s at an age where suffering from a significant health issue does become increasingly likely. Let’s not forget the amount of tax-payer money that was spent on his behalf. Seems like a challenger could make hay with that. ---
**Author:** ![actualliberalnotoneofthose](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e79b87/32.png) [@actualliberalnotoneofthose](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/actualliberalnotoneofthose)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2017, 5:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-we-see-senator-arpaio/794953/37 "2017-09-19T05:06:30Z")
I guess this is the Revenge of the RINOs or something. Sometimes I have a hard time believing that the Trump admin isn’t a vast leftwing conspiracy aimed at dismantling the GOP. ---
**Author:** ![anomalous1](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e56c9b/32.png) [@anomalous1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/anomalous1)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2017, 7:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-we-see-senator-arpaio/794953/38 "2017-10-01T07:42:43Z")
> [@EddyTeddyFreddy](#): > > Don’t know they’re evil, or that they’re stupid? > > My money’s on both. Truly evil people are smart. He’s just an idiot and asshole. Anyone who puts pink underwear on inmates to belittle them, is immature and a total asshole for being so petty.. He is/was/forever will be an arrogant, egotistical P.O.S. Even if pardoned, that is a big [pink] stain on the history pages that will haunt him and his family forever, if he didn’t have the foresight to think of that, it makes him a moron. Someone should do a study on recidivism rates of the inmates in “tent city”, my money is on a high rate with an increase in violence due to the way they were treated while being there. This is coming from a libertarian (conservative leaning). ---
**Author:** ![beowulff](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/beowulff/32/542_2.png) [@beowulff](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/beowulff)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2017, 2:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-we-see-senator-arpaio/794953/39 "2017-10-22T02:12:01Z")
Recent update: > **[Judge rejects motion to clear former Sheriff Joe Arpaio's conviction | CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2017/10/20/us/sheriff-joe-arpaio-dismissal-denied/index.html)** > > A federal judge on Thursday rejected Joe Arpaio's request to erase a criminal contempt conviction from his record, saying a presidential pardon of the former sheriff didn't change the facts of the case. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2017, 3:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-we-see-senator-arpaio/794953/40 "2017-10-22T03:02:41Z")
> [@actualliberalnotoneofthose](#): > > I guess this is the Revenge of the RINOs or something. Sometimes I have a hard time believing that the Trump admin isn’t a vast leftwing conspiracy aimed at dismantling the GOP. RINOS? There aren’t any RINOS in these races. These primary battles are being fought between people who are 100% right wing and people who are 105% right wing. When you start claiming that Roy Moore isn’t conservative enough for you, that’s a sign you’ve gone off the deep end. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-we-see-senator-arpaio/794953.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-we-see-senator-arpaio/794953.md?page=3)