# What are the odds we see Senator Arpaio?

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-we-see-senator-arpaio/794953>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Created:** [August 28, 2017, 7:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-we-see-senator-arpaio/794953 "2017-08-28T19:44:25Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 1\
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**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\
**Post date:** [August 28, 2017, 8:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-we-see-senator-arpaio/794953/4 "2017-08-28T20:10:27Z")

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Maybe I’m doing my probabilities funky, but here’s my WAG thinking:

1. 10% chance he runs

2. (assuming he does run) 25% chance he wins the Republican nomination

3. (assuming he wins the R nomination) 40% chance he wins the seat

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