What are the prospects for a high-speed rail network in the United States?

Great Debates
121

When i worked in Boston, i would take a cab to Logan, and give myself 1.5-2 hours from the office to the scheduled flight, counting security and all that. If i was taking the train, I’d give myself 15 minutes from the office to the Back Bay train station.

When i worked in NYC, i usually took a bus to the airport, because the cab fare was ~ $100 and couldn’t be justified. It took a long time. I could catch a train in half an hour from the office, or an hour from home. I did a lot of train travel when i lived in NYC, although i did love that i could sometimes pick out my apartment building on a flight departing La Guardia.

122

Do people who work for you get paid hourly for travel? I was salaried. No one other than me really knew or cared how long i spent getting to airports or train stations when i traveled for work.

I never checked a bag, though. (Except once, when security found that I’d accidentally left some pocketknives in my suitcase, where they had been since a car vacation. That time they let me check my bag and return to the front of the security line, and i took them up on that offer. Fun fact: that was the return trip. Outbound security hadn’t noticed i had three pocket knives in that bag.)

123

Well, isn’t that nice. If I had a boss like you, I’d quickly be working somewhere else, too. By my choice.

But apparently, you let your boss biases mislead you about what I wrote.

I was talking about FLYING, you seem to be talking about eastern railroads, which is a totally different thing. You show up at Phoenix Sky Harbor 30 minutes before your flight leaves, and you might as well whip out your phone and book another one, because you ain’t making it. It doesn’t always take two hours to get through security, but I wouldn’t risk it, especially at 6-8 am on a Monday.

But more importantly, you seem to think driving to the airport, parking, going through TSA are somehow optional? That they are “padding”? Maybe you have special rental car treatment club, but I don’t. I have t stand in line with the normal folk. In Atlanta, the rental cars are not where you can just walk to the desk - you have to take a train to get there. More time.

You can’t apply where you live to the rest of the country. It don’t work like that.

If I’m flying to LA to got to a business trip in Valencia, that’s probably and hour drive, but if I drive all the way, I can go straight there. Efficiency.

124

Little Rock National Airport is about twenty minutes from my location when traffic is decent, but I wouldn’t leave my house 60 minutes before my flight because there’s a good chance I’d miss it. Sometimes I breeze through security in mere minutes and other times it takes 45-60 minutes to get through. And we’re talking about a very small airport.

125

Heck, most flights, they close the plane doors 30 minutes before the scheduled departure time. You might be able to get to the airport in 30 minutes, and you might be able to get through security in that time, but both are iffy depending on unpredictable traffic, and you’re certainly not doing both. If you expect people working for you to leave for the airport an hour before departure time, you’re going to have a lot of employees missing flights.

126

Fwiw, a friend was a technical salesman for IBM for several years, and he was constantly flying here or there. And his mantra was, “if you never miss a flight, you are wasting way too much time at airports”.

I play bridge, and the similar mantra is “down 1 is good bridge”.

If you do something tons of times, you get to a point where you care more about average outcomes than about making sure this one time works well.

For flying, I’m sure that works better if you have a lot of status with the airline and know they will get you on the next flight.

127

With things like traffic and security lines at airports it isn’t the mean that gets you, but the variance. How many standard deviations of delay do you want to build into your schedule?

If the trip is so unimportant that it isn’t worth an extra hour of your time to cover contingencies, then why are you even going?

The prospects for high speed rail in the US are very poor, even with some regions where it absolutely makes sense. Without wanting to getting too Ezra Klein about it, the US has trouble building large projects. NIMBYism, regulations, and existing groups that make money off the lack of infrastructure all seem to be insurmountable obstacles.

128

Even just using the term “standard deviation” suggests a Gaussian distribution of times, which it very much isn’t. Which, of course, makes it even harder to plan for.

129

I mean, most of the time, if you miss a flight, you can take a later flight. Especially if you have a lot of airline status. By cutting your planned time shorter you are increasing the variance of how long your trip will take, and if you can reduce the average enough, that might be worth it to you.

I don’t fly that often, i don’t have airline status, and I’ve never missed a flight. But I’ve come close to missing flights a few times. If I’m heading to DC for a one day business trip, no, i don’t want to wake up an hour earlier to be absolutely certain I’ll catch the flight. That turns a difficult commute into a miserable commute.

130

Another “projecting the specific to the general” fallacy.

You fly between two high traffic cities, like Phoenix to LAX, there’s another flight within a half an hour. Maybe two. You fly from Phoenix to Lexington KY and you miss your flight, the next available one might be 15 hours going through Atlanta, Chicago, Omaha and then Lexington. With a five hour layover in Chicago. Or, it might be…tomorrow.

If two western cities could use high speed rail, one near the top of the list for both traffic and feasibility would be Phoenix to LA. I think there are twenty flights a day, each way. And there’s nothing but desert between them. Until you get to Indio and other Desert Cities. But to get the rest of the way…yeah. Not happening, NIMBY.

131

Another heavily traveled West Coast route is Los Angeles to Las Vegas, and there is a privately run high speed rail route planned, though it’s starting in Rancho Cucamonga, about 40 miles east of Union Station.

132

I’m sure he was aware of details like that. Also, he lived in Chicago, and most of his customers were large companies with access to at least a mid-sized airport.

I’m not recommending “cut it as close as possible” to you, or to anyone else. Just giving an example of a frequent flyer who didn’t spend much time in airports.

Personally, i aim to arrive an hour before a domestic flight is scheduled, or two hours before an international flight, unless i know I’m flying through a horrible airport. (Horrible security lines, that is.) That got me in trouble at Heathrow, where the airline gave me a 2 hour transfer, and i assumed it would be fine. It wasn’t, my first plane was a little late, and i nearly missed that flight. But it usually works well. I don’t fly often enough to have status, so if i actually miss a flight I’m kinda screwed. So I round up when i estimate drive time, parking time, etc. And i give myself a little extra time if I’m checking a bag, but i try to avoid that.

On the other hand, i hate airports. (And i also dislike driving. No way would i voluntarily drive 6 hours by myself if i can find some other route.) So minimizing my time in airports is valuable to me.

Yes, i take a lot of trains. No airports. No airport security. Easy to get to. Pleasant seats. A nice view. Often food is available for purchase. I can take an extra bag without needing to ransom it back at the other end. I don’t have to pay attention while we are moving; i can sleep or read during the trip. I wish the US had a better rail system.

133

The curve definitely has a high left distribution. Things are often very late, but are never more than a few minutes early.

For example, it can never be less than 40 minutes between the time I park in the offsite lot, and when I sit down at my departure gate. Maybe the mean time is 50 minutes, but it could be 90 minutes. 120 is unlikely enough that I don’t plan for it to take that long, because out of 20 trips it would only happen 1 time.

(Of course there are external factors that can change this, so if it was an extremely busy travel time, and the government was shut down, and there was construction on the route from the offsite lot to the terminal… 120 minutes might be into the meaty part of the probability curve.)

That all goes into the planning, and not wanting to resurrect the old “why are people late” thread, complicated and time dependent tasks will require additional compromises based on the importance of completing the task.

Some people, like my mom, can go way overboard the wrong way. She doesn’t want to fly, because it would require her getting to the airport 4 hours early, just to feel like she’s on time. I’ve known other people who feel like they’ve failed at travel if the plane isn’t boarding when they first walk up to the gate.

Both types need to adjust their expectations more inline with reality.

My only experience with trains is in Europe, and all the same rules apply, but instead of being there 2 hours before departure, maybe it’s only 10 minutes before departure. A much more pleasant system.

Even that can still need compromises. For example, leave 10 minutes extra early to make sure you catch the 8:52, because the next express isn’t until 9:52, and the non-express will cost you 30 minutes. So you’re spending 10 minutes as a hedge against losing 30. Still better than flying, where the option might be to spend an hour as a hedge against losing a day (and money).

134

One route not mentioned: Atlanta to Charlotte. This would run through my neck of the woods. They’ve issued FEIS-ROD–https://railroads.dot.gov/elibrary/atlanta-charlotte-passenger-rail-corridor-investment-plan-tier-1-combined-final-eis-and

I’m excited about the possibility. It would offer more workforce mobility and hopefully make I-85 somewhat less of a pain in the ass. It probably won’t happen in my lifetime, but i think it would be a good thing.

135

Population density makes a big difference in the viability of HSR. Doubling the number of people would mean that there would be two more major cities between Phoenix and Los Angeles. With only two cities on the line, it can offer two one-way trips. With four cities on the line, it can offer twelve. The San Francisco to Los Angeles trip has a similar consideration.

136

For a trip to see the solar eclipse we went to visit my brother-in-law in Indiana. The flight from SFO left at 5:45 AM. We left the house at 3:30 for the 30 minute drive to the airport. Long term parking took a little longer than expected. We were in the TSA line when they had some sort of glitch and sent us to another entry. By the time we walked the extra distance, I made it to the gate with seconds to spare. I wasn’t going to leave my wife behind and the lady at the gate was nice enough to wait the few extra seconds for my wife to make it. Her brother was also going with us and the gate agent could not wait any longer.

After two attempts at standby, we insisted on an assigned seat. That would leave at about 2:30 the next day so we took the opportunity to spend another day at home. The rescheduled flight had a 45 minute layover in Dallas. The first leg was about 20 minutes late so we missed our connection there. We spent another night in Dalles before finally making it to our destination.

In order to get a cheaper flight, we scheduled our arrival four days before the eclipse. We still had two days left. We did pay for two days of hotel that only our luggage got to take advantage of.

137

That’s just so the conductor can cry “COOOK KA munga!”

138

I too am talking about flying. I am also talking about trains to make sure my post is on topic for this thread about trains. The same inflated claims about air travel door to door times are used for comparison against all modes of transportation.

I’ve never had TSA at PHX take more than 15 minutes. And if you’re that worried about it, you can use PHX RESERVE. It’s free, although you can’t go through the pre check lane so I’ve never used it.

You have spent more time typing responses in this thread than it would have taken to sign up for Emerald Club, etc. It’s free. This is no great secret. It’s not some special anything. PHX has a train to the cars too. And, like ATL, the ride itself is about 5 min.

LAX on the other hand is an all around garbage experience.

Re: the conversation on missing flights, I’ve missed precisely one due to arriving too late. Many due to layover issues. A client who was of the “if they aren’t threatening to close the door on me, I’m too early” philosophy managed to miss about one a quarter. Trip importance varies. Traveling for a family health emergency earlier this year? I arrived early.

Also part of the calculus is that if your trip has an indefinite ending, I’ve found (northeast regional) trains to be a bit more flexible re: changing tickets. Obviously not as flexible as just getting in your car when you’re ready. For those of you with more experience with existing high speed rail systems, I’m curious how much you’re fixed to the train you booked in advance.

139

For the truly high-speed trains, you are booked on to a specific train and would usually have to pay some sort of supplement to change. Last-minute walk-up fares would be very expensive (assuming the desired train isn’t completely sold out).

For regular trains, you can get cheaper fares if you’re willing to tie yourself down in advance.

But fares and booking can be organised in whatever way seems to make a practicable business plan for the circumstances. There’s no off-the-peg system.

140

How much would a nationwide high speed rail system cost? Extrapolating based on the cost of the California system roughly a couple trillion dollars. For that kind of money you can make massive improvements in the highway and air transportation systems.

But I think the major new alternative will be self-driving cars. So instead of sitting at the wheel for 6 hours you will be spending the 6 hours doing office work, watching media, sleeping, etc.