# What are the Strongest Scientific Consensuses That Turned Out to Be Possibly, or Definitely, Wrong? **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Tags:** science-math\ **Created:** [September 8, 2026, 12:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-strongest-scientific-consensuses-that-turned-out-to-be-possibly-or-definitely-wrong/1032888 "2026-09-08T00:45:37Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2026, 12:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-strongest-scientific-consensuses-that-turned-out-to-be-possibly-or-definitely-wrong/1032888/101 "2026-09-10T00:15:18Z")
> [@Andy\_L](#): > > Cipango is the name Europeans used for Japan, so Columbus has traveled far enough to hear word of Cuba and believes that that must be Japan. So he’s _way_ off on the size of the Earth. No doubt. Columbus thought that Japan- and associated islands- stuck out way way more than they actually did. He was quite wrong on that, but based upon little current info. That does not mean he thought the world was a lot smaller. ---
**Author:** ![Moriarty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/moriarty/32/49_2.png) [@Moriarty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moriarty)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2026, 1:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-strongest-scientific-consensuses-that-turned-out-to-be-possibly-or-definitely-wrong/1032888/102 "2026-09-10T01:02:07Z")
> [@Earl\_Snake-Hips\_Tucker](#): > > For decades the story of President William Henry Harrison related how he had caught a cold after having given a long speech while poorly dressed for the frigid temps, strongly implying if not outright stating that it was cause and effect. This happened in the 1800s, but I suspect most doctors believed well into the 20th century. Similarly, it’s frequently noted that Zachary Taylor became ill after eating a bunch of cherries and cold milk. He died 5 days later, on July 9, 1850. For a long time the milk and cherries combination was blamed for his death. Today, we know that the water supply in the White House was tainted. It likely killed several people. > [@](#): > > In the 1840s the three presidents elected in United States were William Henry Harrison, James K. Polk, and Zachary Taylor; two of the three died in office and the third was sickened in office and died three months later. President Harrison, nicknamed “Old Tippecanoe,” took office in 1841 and died just 31 days into his presidency; this is the shortest length of office for any U.S. president. Officially, President Harrison died of pneumonia, and President Polk and President Taylor both died both of gastrointestinal issues. > > New forensic research shows all three deaths could be link to the White House water supply in the 1840s and early 1850s… > > As it turns out, there was no wastewater collection system back then in Washington, D.C. The common method of disposal in the area was an old sewerage dump. This dump was a ground depression opening used to get rid of waste, which was upstream of the natural flow of the groundwater to the White House’s source water. This sewerage dump was used by locals and the government to dump nightly waste, an early process for disposing of wastewater. Never a good thing to be downstream of that! > > This method of disposal for human waste, with no treatment, would have been a breeding ground for two deadly bacteria, Salmonella typhi and Salmonella paratyphi, the causes of typhoid and paratyphoid fever. Researchers are now linking this information to all three presidential deaths. Limited records for the time do not show results of other deaths from this water at the White House, but the source water was moved to the Potomac River in the mid-1850s. > **[The 1840s: Not a Good Time for White House Water - Florida Water and...](https://www.fwpcoa.org/content.aspx?page_id=2507&club_id=859275&item_id=1252&pst=7966)** > > The first water system for the City of Washington, near the White House, was created in 1802 at a natural spring. In 1808 a well was sunk at the spring site ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2026, 1:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-strongest-scientific-consensuses-that-turned-out-to-be-possibly-or-definitely-wrong/1032888/103 "2026-09-10T01:16:58Z")
> [@Common\_Tater](#): > > But it was at least for a time considered a possibility that an atomic bomb would ignite the earth’s atmosphere. Yes, for about the ten seconds that elapsed between a scientist wondering that, and doing the calculations to check. Then they stopped considering the possibility. And is the miasma hypothesis actually false? Bad air does cause disease, where “bad air” is air that has virus-laden aerosols in it. We haven’t disproved miasma; we’ve just discovered why it’s bad. ---
**Author:** ![Earl\_Snake-Hips\_Tucker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/earl_snake-hips_tucker/32/3269_2.png) [@Earl\_Snake-Hips\_Tucker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Earl_Snake-Hips_Tucker)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2026, 1:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-strongest-scientific-consensuses-that-turned-out-to-be-possibly-or-definitely-wrong/1032888/104 "2026-09-10T01:18:33Z")
The panda (bear) was originally described as a bear, until physiological and habitat similarities to the (red) panda changed scientific thinking, and it was determined that , nope, not a bear-- more closely related to racoons, as that was thought to be the closest relative to the red panda. That thinking lasted for decades until maybe the 1990s when better science showed that they had it right the first time. Panda bears are indeed bears. ( I refuse to call them giant pandas, and I think they should be renamed to one of their original bear names.). Not sure what the latest thinking is on red pandas’ closest relatives, procyons or mustelids. ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2026, 1:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-strongest-scientific-consensuses-that-turned-out-to-be-possibly-or-definitely-wrong/1032888/105 "2026-09-10T01:39:17Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > And is the miasma hypothesis actually false? Well, yes - it is as it was constructed. Shitty air quality is still a thing, but that wasn’t the miasma theory which was entirely about environmental conditions like rotting vegetation causing mysterious vapors to rise from the soil (especially at night) and triggering disease outbreaks. Malaria literally means “bad air” in medieval Italian. Malaria is transmitted by an insect vector. So is plague, again often blamed on miasma. Ditto typhus. Ditto yellow fever. Cholera from fecal contamination of water supplies. Ditto dysentery. Chlamydia from sexual contact. Diseases like tuberculosis and influenza are spread as an aerial contaminant, but have human-to-human communicability chains rather than arising from environmental contaminants. All of the above was blamed on miasma at one time or another, none of them were true. ---
**Author:** ![Hari\_Seldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hari_seldon/32/5173_2.png) [@Hari\_Seldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hari_Seldon)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2026, 1:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-strongest-scientific-consensuses-that-turned-out-to-be-possibly-or-definitely-wrong/1032888/106 "2026-09-10T01:48:44Z")
There was certainly a general consensus that the research that led to RNA vaccines was worthless. Katalin Kariko never had more than an adjunct position at Penn, could never get her research funded and was eventually fired. We know how that turned out. As far as I know she never got a regular position. ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2026, 1:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-strongest-scientific-consensuses-that-turned-out-to-be-possibly-or-definitely-wrong/1032888/107 "2026-09-10T01:55:07Z")
> [@Earl\_Snake-Hips\_Tucker](#): > > Not sure what the latest thinking is on red pandas’ closest relatives, procyons or mustelids. Looks like the current construction is that the modern Mustelidae (weasals) and Procyonidae (raccoons et al) are sister taxa, while Ailuridae (red pandas) are considered more basal, with Mephitidae (skunks) more basal yet. ---
**Author:** ![Jackmannii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackmannii/32/311_2.png) [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2026, 2:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-strongest-scientific-consensuses-that-turned-out-to-be-possibly-or-definitely-wrong/1032888/108 "2026-09-10T02:40:47Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > And is the miasma hypothesis actually false? [Yes](https://nursingclio.org/2025/06/30/miasma-theory-a-primer/). > [@](#): > > The theory held that illness resulted from inhaling miasma, a corruption of the air that was especially prominent in marshy areas. This meant that illnesses were the product of local environmental conditions, not transmitted from an infected person to another. A miasma did not have to smell, but the odors of decomposition warned of miasma’s presence. A reminder that firmly held beliefs before acceptance of the scientific method were a form of orthodoxy, much different than modern scientific consensus. It’s certainly possible, and in fact happens frequently that scientific consensus is radically altered by new evidence. But attacking the idea of scientific consensus by simply saying “Science wuz wrong before!” is the hallmark of a crank. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2026, 4:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-strongest-scientific-consensuses-that-turned-out-to-be-possibly-or-definitely-wrong/1032888/109 "2026-09-10T04:36:33Z")
> [@Earl\_Snake-Hips\_Tucker](#): > > Not sure what the latest thinking is on red pandas’ closest relatives, procyons or mustelids. Not very related to the Panda. Likely with the mustelids, but debate continues. > [@Tamerlane](#): > > Looks like the current construction is that the modern Mustelidae (weasals) and Procyonidae (raccoons et al) are sister taxa, while Ailuridae (red pandas) are considered more basal, with Mephitidae (skunks) more basal yet. Sounds better than what I posted. ---
**Author:** ![Jeff\_Lichtman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jeff_lichtman/32/1531_2.png) [@Jeff\_Lichtman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jeff_Lichtman)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2026, 5:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-strongest-scientific-consensuses-that-turned-out-to-be-possibly-or-definitely-wrong/1032888/110 "2026-09-10T05:14:26Z")
For years the consensus in medical science was that polyunsaturated hydrogenated oils are more healthful than saturated fats. People were encouraged to use margarine in place of butter, for instance. Biochemist [Fred Kummerow](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fred_Kummerow) conducted studies showing that the trans fats in hydrogenated oils cause heart disease. He succeeded in changing the consensus, and now trans fats have been eliminated from many foods. ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2026, 5:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-strongest-scientific-consensuses-that-turned-out-to-be-possibly-or-definitely-wrong/1032888/111 "2026-09-10T05:36:31Z")
> [@Andy\_L](#): > > Did crustal displacement or the expanding earth have any degree of general acceptance? Crustal displacement caused by rotational forces was _the_ mechanism for Wegener’s continental drift\[1\] (I’m not talking about the always-fringe sudden crustal slip stuff beloved of the Atlantis crowd) and that had [a lot of currency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alfred_Wegener#Reactions), with many prominent adherents especially in Europe. Expanding Earth also had some proponents but was always way more fringe. * * * 1. He initially also considered sea floor spreading but that didn’t make it into the final version ---
**Author:** ![MysteriousCritter](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/839c29/32.png) [@MysteriousCritter](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MysteriousCritter)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2026, 6:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-strongest-scientific-consensuses-that-turned-out-to-be-possibly-or-definitely-wrong/1032888/112 "2026-09-10T06:18:55Z")
Once upon a time it was widely understood that stomach ulcers were caused by excess stomach acid production with contributions from stress and spicy foods. Then someone discovered in the 1980s a bacteria that’s responsible for most of them. Their publication was met with widespread skepticism. Now antibiotics are just a normal part of treatment for ulcers. ---
**Author:** ![Askance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/askance/32/8281_2.png) [@Askance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Askance)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2026, 6:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-strongest-scientific-consensuses-that-turned-out-to-be-possibly-or-definitely-wrong/1032888/113 "2026-09-10T06:41:19Z")
As posted above on Sept 8 … ! ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2026, 6:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-strongest-scientific-consensuses-that-turned-out-to-be-possibly-or-definitely-wrong/1032888/114 "2026-09-10T06:51:23Z")
> [@Andy\_L](#): > > I think he believed it - after all, he was planning a trip not to Asia in general, but to _India_ - a place that was reasonably well explored by Westerners by that time, and Columbia believed that the North American islands he found were _Japan_, not some part of a far-extended Asia Damn, if there was ever anyone who desperately needed a GPS, it was certainly Chris Columbus! 😁 ---
**Author:** ![bump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7c8e57/32.png) [@bump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bump)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2026, 3:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-strongest-scientific-consensuses-that-turned-out-to-be-possibly-or-definitely-wrong/1032888/115 "2026-09-10T15:29:30Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Yeah, there really was not true consensus on either subject. A Doctor might say, “Well, we are not sure exactly what causes ulcers- but we do know that stress and lifestyle makes them flare up”. Sure sounds like a consensus _(“general agreement (as of opinion or fact) among a group of people or things”_) to me. It’s not like there was some competing theory floating around; the **consensus** was that they weren’t well understood, but that stress and lifestyle were either causes or things that made them flare/get worse. ---
**Author:** ![suranyi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e36b37/32.png) [@suranyi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/suranyi)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2026, 5:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-strongest-scientific-consensuses-that-turned-out-to-be-possibly-or-definitely-wrong/1032888/116 "2026-09-10T17:27:17Z")
Here’s one that might fit I haven’t seen mentioned yet: In 1884 Svente Arrhenius proposed in his Ph.D. thesis that dissolving substances involved dissociation of molecules into paired charged ions. In his time he was roundly ridiculed by the chemists of the day. His own thesis advisor said it was a stupid idea and only grudgingly granted his decree. Later of course it turned out he was basically correct, and won the 1903 Nobel Prize in chemistry. ---
**Author:** ![md-2000](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9d8465/32.png) [@md-2000](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/md-2000)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2026, 5:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-strongest-scientific-consensuses-that-turned-out-to-be-possibly-or-definitely-wrong/1032888/117 "2026-09-10T17:35:51Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > But what he really thought was that Asia stuck way way out further than it really did- and since no European really knew better, that sounded reasonable. As I said, he estimated how far Marco Polo went eastward, based on his writings about his travels. So he had an idea how far east to Cathay. He may have overestimated the distance a certain amountto fit his numbers, but not even close enough to make 24,000 miles work. > Citing the calculations of Alfraganus (Baghdad 9th C.), Columbus believed the circumference of the Earth was much smaller than other estimates. However, unknown to him (and also his biographer Fernando), Alfraganus’s estimates used the Arab mile (\>7000ft) and not the Roman mile (\<5000ft). (From a discussion of this in r/history) I saw an explanation once - there was another Greek who worked out the diameter of the earth and got it wrong, got an answer of 5,000 miles or so. Columbus locked onto this theory, and took the units described and attributed them to a different Arab measure by that name which reduced the diameter to 4500 miles. He estimated Marco Polo travelled 10,000 miles east of the west point of Europe, not 7,000, to give the answer that Indonesia was about 3,000 to 4,000 miles due west. > [@Andy\_L](#): > > he was planning a trip not to Asia in general, but to _India_ Technically, Indonesia, the Indies. Island east of India, generally lined up with China. The Spice Islands, since the goal was a shipload of what was pure gold, i.e. spices. > [@DrDeth](#): > > Right, scientists would say “Technically we are still in the end of the last Ice age.” Ice ages are proven, so sooner or later we are due for the next one, unless global warming has flipped a switch somewhere. But now? 2,000 years? 10,000 years? [![](https://faculty.ucr.edu/~legneref/bronze/jpg/World%20Climate-2.jpg) ](https://faculty.ucr.edu/~legneref/bronze/jpg/World%20Climate-2.jpg) > [@Chronos](#): > > And is the miasma hypothesis actually false? Bad air does cause disease, where “bad air” is air that has virus-laden aerosols in it. We haven’t disproved miasma; we’ve just discovered why it’s bad. There’s a famous quote somewhere about medieval cities and sewage disposal, where the author complains that Romans were obsessed with good drainage and proper sewers, because they thought this was importanat to avoid “bad air” and disease, but the author says “..we know now that is not true.” ---
**Author:** ![Jackmannii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackmannii/32/311_2.png) [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2026, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-strongest-scientific-consensuses-that-turned-out-to-be-possibly-or-definitely-wrong/1032888/118 "2026-09-10T17:47:49Z")
> [@MysteriousCritter](#): > > Once upon a time it was widely understood that stomach ulcers were caused by excess stomach acid production with contributions from stress and spicy foods. Then someone discovered in the 1980s a bacteria that’s responsible for most of them. Their publication was met with widespread skepticism. While there was some initial skepticism, scientists rapidly moved to investigate and confirm Marshall’s findings about H. pylori, and those conclusions were firmly established in gastroenterology within a few years - very rapid acceptance for a new medical paradigm. It’s a myth promulgated by alties that Marshall was ostracized for his work. > **[p27.pdf](https://centerforinquiry.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/29/2004/11/22164643/p27.pdf)** > > 2.35 MB ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2026, 5:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-strongest-scientific-consensuses-that-turned-out-to-be-possibly-or-definitely-wrong/1032888/119 "2026-09-10T17:54:26Z")
> [@bump](#): > > Sure sounds like a consensus _(“general agreement (as of opinion or fact) among a group of people or things”_) to me. That “we do not know what causes ulcers”??? yes, even today it is a fact that "stress and lifestyle makes them flare up”. So, ulcers do not fit what the OP is asking for, in fact i can not think of anything that really does fit, once the world entered into the Scientific age. > [@md-2000](#): > > As I said, he estimated how far Marco Polo went eastward, based on his writings about his travels. So he had an idea how far east to Cathay. He may have overestimated the distance a certain amountto fit his numbers, but not even close enough to make 24,000 miles work. Where is that cite coming from.? > [@md-2000](#): > > Ice ages are proven, so sooner or later we are due for the next one, unless global warming has flipped a switch somewhere. But now? 2,000 years? 10,000 years? My statement had nothing whatsoever to do with the _next_ ice age. ---
**Author:** ![Moriarty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/moriarty/32/49_2.png) [@Moriarty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moriarty)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2026, 5:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-strongest-scientific-consensuses-that-turned-out-to-be-possibly-or-definitely-wrong/1032888/120 "2026-09-10T17:58:15Z")
> [@Tamerlane](#): > > > [@Chronos](#): > > > > And is the miasma hypothesis actually false? > > Well, yes - it is as it was constructed. Shitty air quality is still a thing, but that wasn’t the miasma theory which was entirely about environmental conditions like rotting vegetation causing mysterious vapors to rise from the soil (especially at night) and triggering disease outbreaks. There was a time when it was thought that big bushy beards actually served to protect a man from disease, since they filtered the bad air. > **[In the Victorian Era, Doctors Prescribed Beards to Help Keep Men Healthy](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/victorian-era-doctors-prescribed-beards-help-keep-men-healthy-180951471/)** > > The mid-19th century beard boom was motivated, in part, by health concerns [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-strongest-scientific-consensuses-that-turned-out-to-be-possibly-or-definitely-wrong/1032888.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-strongest-scientific-consensuses-that-turned-out-to-be-possibly-or-definitely-wrong/1032888.md?page=7)