As I said, he estimated how far Marco Polo went eastward, based on his writings about his travels. So he had an idea how far east to Cathay. He may have overestimated the distance a certain amountto fit his numbers, but not even close enough to make 24,000 miles work.
Citing the calculations of Alfraganus (Baghdad 9th C.), Columbus believed the circumference of the Earth was much smaller than other estimates. However, unknown to him (and also his biographer Fernando), Alfraganus’s estimates used the Arab mile (>7000ft) and not the Roman mile (<5000ft).
(From a discussion of this in r/history) I saw an explanation once - there was another Greek who worked out the diameter of the earth and got it wrong, got an answer of 5,000 miles or so. Columbus locked onto this theory, and took the units described and attributed them to a different Arab measure by that name which reduced the diameter to 4500 miles. He estimated Marco Polo travelled 10,000 miles east of the west point of Europe, not 7,000, to give the answer that Indonesia was about 3,000 to 4,000 miles due west.
Technically, Indonesia, the Indies. Island east of India, generally lined up with China. The Spice Islands, since the goal was a shipload of what was pure gold, i.e. spices.
Ice ages are proven, so sooner or later we are due for the next one, unless global warming has flipped a switch somewhere. But now? 2,000 years? 10,000 years?
There’s a famous quote somewhere about medieval cities and sewage disposal, where the author complains that Romans were obsessed with good drainage and proper sewers, because they thought this was importanat to avoid “bad air” and disease, but the author says “..we know now that is not true.”