# What are your actual odds in blackjack? **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [May 29, 2011, 4:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-your-actual-odds-in-blackjack/583641 "2011-05-29T04:44:57Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Civil\_Guy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d78d45/32.png) [@Civil\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Civil_Guy)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2011, 3:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-your-actual-odds-in-blackjack/583641/21 "2011-05-30T03:09:52Z")
My take on it is that the casinos love the winners who will go home and tell everyone about the great time they had in Vegas. If that means that a few people who actually, truth be known, put down thousands of dollars of bets on a weekend make out with a couple hundred bucks of winnings, well that’s okay. And if too many people started winning too much through even the most legitimate means - well, there just woudn’t be that much purpose to building all of those casinos. So something would give. But mostly, Vegas would be hard pressed to come up with a better advertising campaign than Lucky Joe Vacationer telling all his friends that Lucky Joe thinks he’s somehow found a way to beat Vegas. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2011, 3:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-your-actual-odds-in-blackjack/583641/22 "2011-05-30T03:45:49Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > At all casinos around here (Ontario) the dealer must stand on a soft 17… > I am pretty sure you will find both in Vegas but that standing on soft 17 is more common. When I was there they hit Downtown, but stood on the Strip. Since they also hit soft 17 in Reno, etc., it led to a simple rule applicable to the entire State: Dealer must stand on soft 17 if he/she is South of Sahara Ave. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Great\_Antibob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2011, 4:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-your-actual-odds-in-blackjack/583641/23 "2011-05-30T04:13:01Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > They make the same wage whether a given player wins or loses. Fair or not, they do tend to get tipped better if a player wins. The house always wins in the end, so they like seeing an individual player or two having a good session. In terms of general probabilities, the [Wizard of Odds](http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack) is a pretty good site if you want some numbers. ---
**Author:** ![Mosier](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/7ea924/32.png) [@Mosier](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mosier)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2011, 4:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-your-actual-odds-in-blackjack/583641/24 "2011-05-30T04:19:14Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > When I was there they hit Downtown, but stood on the Strip. Since they also hit soft 17 in Reno, etc., it led to a simple rule applicable to the entire State: > > Dealer must stand on soft 17 if he/she is South of Sahara Ave. > > 😃 Not sure how long ago that was, but dealers hit soft 17 on the strip now, too. It must have taken the math geeks awhile to figure out what a big advantage that is. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2011, 4:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-your-actual-odds-in-blackjack/583641/25 "2011-05-30T04:21:43Z")
Quoth **Gary “Wombat” Robinson** : > [@](#): > > So what’s the effect on your overall odds when the casinos can throw out anybody who is winning and claim they were “cheating”? Absolutely no effect. The folks who were winning last game will do exactly as well in the next game, on average, as the folks who were losing last game. ---
**Author:** ![Gary\_Robson](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gary_robson/32/3448_2.png) [@Gary\_Robson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gary_Robson)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2011, 1:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-your-actual-odds-in-blackjack/583641/26 "2011-05-30T13:50:59Z")
> [@Mosier](#): > > That place would get shut down and investigated by the Gaming Control in Vegas, the agency which invokes more fear and has more authority than the Metropolitan Police Department. Here in Vegas, we know that the reputation of our gambling establishments is critical to tourism, and we would literally die as a city if that reputation was lost. Have you, perchance, read the book _Bringing Down the House_? Or the Wikipedia article on card counting? Or every other story I’ve ever seen of people implementing legal card counting systems and being forcibly ejected from casinos? > [@Chronos](#): > > Quoth **Gary “Wombat” Robinson** :Absolutely no effect. The folks who were winning last game will do exactly as well in the next game, on average, as the folks who were losing last game. No, because the people who were winning last game were doing so by counting cards or some other perfectly legal system, and were forced to leave. (And it’s “Robson,” by the way) ---
**Author:** ![asterion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/4da419/32.png) [@asterion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asterion)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2011, 1:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-your-actual-odds-in-blackjack/583641/27 "2011-05-30T13:54:10Z")
> [@GameHat](#): > > At least in most Vegas casinos, a tie means a push. You win nothing and lose nothing. > > “Lose on a push” - that would be devastating to the player’s odds. I would never play in a casino with that rule, but I’ve never played in one that had it. And I’ve been to a fair number. There are blackjack variants that have a dealer wins ties rule, but that’s mostly to counter the player advantage of the other rules. I used to play quite a bit of Pontoon online, and it always seemed like the variance was higher in that game. But I agree, unless you give me a whole host of rule changes to offset that hit in the odds, I’d never play the game. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2011, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-your-actual-odds-in-blackjack/583641/28 "2011-05-30T16:38:40Z")
> [@Mosier](#): > > Not sure how long ago that was, but dealers hit soft 17 on the strip now, too. It must have taken the math geeks awhile to figure out what a big advantage that is. I was last in LV circa 1998, but paid little attention to Blackjack as ours was part of a vacation trip to Grand Canyon, etc. BTW, best strategy for the House is to hit soft 17 except in the case where Six is up and Ace is the hidden hole card. (I dimly recall reading that a few casinos do adopt that variable rule.) The players have stood on their bustable hands (12, 13, 14, 15, 16) and you can hear the groans when the Dealer flips that Ace in the hole. (And no, hitting bustable hands against Dealer Six is not a viable countermeasure! :smack: ) Here’s another example where casinos don’t always follow odds: For a while I was interested in _Pai Gow_ (the tile game, not the poker variant). Caesar’s Palace had a rule always to keep Je Joon when available “because it can’t lose.” But even without doing computer study, it’s easy to see that if the other tiles are, say, 5 and 6, splitting the Je Joon is much more profitable. (Splitting is also very unlikely to lose, but is also much less likely to tie.) ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2011, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-your-actual-odds-in-blackjack/583641/29 "2011-05-30T16:51:10Z")
> [@](#): > > No, because the people who were winning last game were doing so by counting cards or some other perfectly legal system, and were forced to leave. Oh, I thought you meant people who _weren’t_ actually cheating. And yes, card counting is regarded as cheating by the casinos. It’s legal (meaning that you can’t get arrested for doing it), but it’s still a perfectly legitimate reason for them to kick you out of the house if they deem it necessary. And apologies on misspelling your name. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2011, 4:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-your-actual-odds-in-blackjack/583641/30 "2011-05-30T16:56:40Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Oh, I thought you meant people who _weren’t_ actually cheating. And yes, card counting is regarded as cheating by the casinos. It’s legal (meaning that you can’t get arrested for doing it), but it’s still a perfectly legitimate reason for them to kick you out of the house if they deem it necessary. Mr. Robson’s comment applies even without card counting. The expectations of a player who follows (or nearly follows) Basic Strategy are much better than those of a poor or average player. And, while denying play to counters may be legal in most (all?) jurisdictions, that doesn’t make it “cheating.” We never invited Grant Baze to our rubber bridge game, but it wasn’t because we thought he was cheating! 🆒 ---
**Author:** ![Gary\_Robson](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gary_robson/32/3448_2.png) [@Gary\_Robson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gary_Robson)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2011, 6:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-your-actual-odds-in-blackjack/583641/31 "2011-05-30T18:38:18Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Oh, I thought you meant people who _weren’t_ actually cheating. And yes, card counting is regarded as cheating by the casinos. It’s legal (meaning that you can’t get arrested for doing it), but it’s still a perfectly legitimate reason for them to kick you out of the house if they deem it necessary. Card counting is really just “paying attention.” There is no way that can be considered cheating, any more than memorizing odds tables for Texas hold 'em or five-card draw. Effectively, what the casinos are doing is throwing out anyone who’s good at the game. > [@Chronos](#): > > And apologies on misspelling your name. No biggie. ---
**Author:** ![Peter\_Morris](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/peter_morris/32/359_2.png) [@Peter\_Morris](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peter_Morris)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2011, 7:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-your-actual-odds-in-blackjack/583641/32 "2011-05-30T19:25:40Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > I was playing some blackjack tonight. I am pleased to report I won. > > My question is this; at least superficially, it seems that unless I’m stupid, my ROI should be positive, since I can do things the dealer cannot, like doubling down and splitting in advantageous situations. > > So what, in fact, are my odds? Let us assume the following house rules and conditions: > > … Under those rules, the house has an edge of 0.43096% > **[Blackjack House Edge Calculator - Find Your Winning Chances - Wizard of Odds](https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/calculator/)** > > Here you can check and use a calculator that gives you the house edge for virtually any set of blackjack rules and it can be used with proper basic strategy… ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2011, 7:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-your-actual-odds-in-blackjack/583641/33 "2011-05-30T19:39:09Z")
Thanks to all who pointed to the Wizard of Odds site. Fantastic! When it says the dealer edge is .43%, am I to take that as meaning that I will win back $99.57 out of every $100 I bet? Or that I will win the equivalent of 49.57% of bets made? ---
**Author:** ![Peter\_Morris](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/peter_morris/32/359_2.png) [@Peter\_Morris](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peter_Morris)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2011, 7:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-your-actual-odds-in-blackjack/583641/34 "2011-05-30T19:53:57Z")
It means the former: you will win back $99.57 out of every $100 you bet. On average. Assuming you follow perfect strategy, and no card counting. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2011, 9:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-your-actual-odds-in-blackjack/583641/35 "2011-05-30T21:20:59Z")
> [@](#): > > Card counting is really just “paying attention.” There is no way that can be considered cheating,… You want to argue that it _shouldn’t_ be considered cheating, I’m right there with you. But it obviously _can_ be considered cheating, as evidenced by the fact that the casinos actually do so. ---
**Author:** ![Gary\_Robson](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gary_robson/32/3448_2.png) [@Gary\_Robson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gary_Robson)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2011, 9:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-your-actual-odds-in-blackjack/583641/36 "2011-05-30T21:35:41Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > You want to argue that it _shouldn’t_ be considered cheating, I’m right there with you. But it obviously _can_ be considered cheating, as evidenced by the fact that the casinos actually do so. Semantically, you are quite correct. Poor word choice on my part. ---
**Author:** ![FeAudrey](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/7feea3/32.png) [@FeAudrey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FeAudrey)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2011, 12:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-your-actual-odds-in-blackjack/583641/37 "2011-05-31T00:47:29Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > (quotes) _They want you to win. The more you win, the more the house rakes in in the long run._ > > That doesn’t really make any sense … It’s counter-intuitive, but mathematically correct, and has been known at least since John Scarne’s day. The casino rules are set up so that when you win, you are paid off at less than true odds would entitle you to. So it’s only when you win that the casino gets to keep that extra little bit. Note how many of the recent changes discussed by previous posters relate to shorter payouts. ---
**Author:** ![Xema](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/x/9de053/32.png) [@Xema](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Xema)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2011, 1:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-your-actual-odds-in-blackjack/583641/38 "2011-05-31T01:54:35Z")
> [@FeAudrey](#): > > The casino rules are set up so that when you win, you are paid off at less than true odds would entitle you to. > So it’s only when you win that the casino gets to keep that extra little bit. I’m puzzled by this. When you win, they indeed keep a certain amount that “ought” to be paid to you. But when you lose, they keep everything you bet. They will obviously do better if you somehow manage to place a disproportionate number of losing bets, or if in a game with player options (e.g. Blackjack) you pursue a sub-optimal strategy. In the long run, of course, it’s reasonable to presume that poor payouts = few gamblers = low casino profits. ---
**Author:** ![Peter\_Morris](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/peter_morris/32/359_2.png) [@Peter\_Morris](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peter_Morris)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2011, 1:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-your-actual-odds-in-blackjack/583641/39 "2011-05-31T01:58:00Z")
> [@FeAudrey](#): > > The casino rules are set up so that when you win, you are paid off at less than true odds would entitle you to. > > So it’s only when you win that the casino gets to keep that extra little bit. Yes, but when you lose, the casino gets to keep it all. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2011, 2:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-your-actual-odds-in-blackjack/583641/40 "2011-05-31T02:05:10Z")
> [@FeAudrey](#): > > It’s counter-intuitive, but mathematically correct, and has been known at least since John Scarne’s day. > > The casino rules are set up so that when you win, you are paid off at less than true odds would entitle you to. > > So it’s only when you win that the casino gets to keep that extra little bit. But when you lose the casino keeps everything. What you’re saying makes no sense. If you win the casino keeps nothing. They give you money. If you lose, the casino makes money, they take your money. The casino’s profit comes from the delta between winners and losers; the odds of the games ensure L\>W. They don’t make money from W, they make money from the difference between L and W. This is so obvious I can’t help but think people are overthinking themselves into a logical error so let me set up a scenario: You and I decide the play Coin Flip. But we set it up so you have odds similar to casino’s odds in blackjack; if the flip is heads, you get $100 from me. But if the flips is tails, I get $99 of yours. I flip the coin. Do you want it to come up heads or tails? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-your-actual-odds-in-blackjack/583641.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-your-actual-odds-in-blackjack/583641.md?page=3)